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7:47 Been through four booms and five busts here …
» Homeless on the High DesertFrom a couple of years ago [edited for timeliness]: Just who exactly made the “tourism, recreation, retirees, and some light industry” decision anyway? Some EarthFirster who moved up here twenty-five years ago and decided we would STOP being the lumbertown we had been all along and viciously set about without provocation or consideration of long-term [...] -
9:40
I for one are happy our cops …
» Homeless on the High DesertHere on The High Desert, the Bend, Redmond and smaller PDs and Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson Sheriff’s Deputies, think like fire-fighters and medics, and not militant enforcers: “All of those charges have to start with a lawful order, otherwise the cops are just bouncers with badges.”
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9:31
Not the first time …
» Homeless on the High DesertBend makes National Geographic - The first time, as I recall, was in a 1975 article about what was then known as the Cascade Lakes (or Seven Lakes) Highway, where due to the (then) recent gunning down in the Westside Tavern by a jealous husband the dude who was bonking his wife National Geographic labeled my [...]
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12:52
It’s really rather simple …
» Homeless on the High DesertThey’re not just a church when they’re the only hospital in town. They’re not just a church when they’re using taxpayer funds to discriminate against taxpayers.
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6:49
Firestorm …
» Homeless on the High DesertIf we don’t get some moisture down here in the flatlands damned quick that’s what’ll happen come summer, when the 750,000 square miles of dead standing timber just waiting to burn that we are in the middle of does just that, burn.
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11:39
Day of Mass Action: 4 February 2012 …
» Homeless on the High DesertBend Action to Stop War on Iran Noon Saturday 4 February 2012, corner of Wall and Greenwood. For immediate release: In many ways, the U.S. war on Iran has already begun. The U.S. government is shaping public opinion to accept military intervention in Iran in the name of “national security”. Fabricated stories that claim evidence [...]
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8:16
Bend Oregon Homes with Acreage
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogMany people want to live in Bend, but they still want the feel of the country and not so much the city life. It is completely possible, Bend has several areas where lots are at least an acre. The list below are just a few of the choices currently available in Bend Oregon with at least an acre of land.
Many of the homes with acreage are perfect for horses, many have spectacular views of the Cascade Mountains.
Full List of Bend Oregon Homes on Acreage -
7:39
Central Oregon Golf Course Homes
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogOne of the great things about Central Oregon is the sunshine, which makes for perfect golfing for many months of the year. Most of the communities in Central Oregon feature at least one golf course and many have multiple golf courses. Bend, Prineville, Sunriver and even La Pine has golf courses. Many of the golf courses are well known from some of the events held in Central Oregon. The LPGA and Jel-Wen Traditions have both contributed to Central Oregon Golf Courses being brought to the worlds spotlight.
Central Oregon Golf Course Home ListGolf Course homes come in all shapes and sizes. Most will have lots of natural light, because they tend to have big expansive windows overlooking the golf course. Many of the golf course homes in Central Oregon have great outdoor living spaces. Decks overlooking the golf course are very popular in the Central Oregon Real Estate market, and what a better way to spend an evening that just sitting and enjoying the beauty of the views.
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21:36
Broken Top Homes Bend Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogBroken Top Homes For SaleBroken Top is one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Bend Oregon. Broken Top is located on the West side of Bend perched on the foot hills of the Cascades. The views from Broken Top can be amazing, and the most prominent is Broken Top, Mt. Bachelor and the Three Sisters.
Homes in Broken Top can be purchased in the mid $200,000 up to multimillion. Broken Top features many types of homes from cottages, to large homes on the golf course. If you are looking for a great home on the west side of Bend Broken Top may be a great option for you.
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8:54
Giving The Source the “Boot” …
» Homeless on the High DesertThis week’s The Source gives Greg Walden “The Boot”. I won’t respond directly because 1) there is little difference between The Source and the Bend Bullshiten (they’re both in it for the advertisement dollars, not news or information), and 2) its halls are populated by the very same snot-nosed trolls that forced us to shut down [...]
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15:18
Bend Condos For Sale
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogLooking for a condominium in Bend? The choices are endless, from the Old Mill to Inn of The Seventh Mountain, on the Deschutes River or near St. Charles the choices are endless. Pricing of condos in Bend is as varies as the locations, you can find condos in Bend any where from $50,000 (occasionally under) to almost a million.
Remember when purchasing a condo you will want to know a few details about the Home Owners Association (HOA) what the fees are, what those fees cover and so on. One of the most popular features of a condo vs a home is that the HOA almost always covers the insurance on the structure and the exterior maintenance.
Your List of Bend Condos For Sale (click for full list)
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10:45
Bend Homes and USDA Loans
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogThere are two basic types of USDA Loan Products, the direct and the indirect. A direct USDA loan is a low income loan with really low interest rates which a purchase is funded directly from USDA. The direct USDA loan can be a very slow and painful process as the buyer and seller at the mercy of the funding of the program, money comes and goes through this program and often times a closing can be delayed for months.
Today however, we are going to talk about an indirect USDA loan which is works very similarly to a standard loan. What makes a USDA loan appealing to many is that you can finance 100% of the purchase price. Now that does not mean you can buy a home and not have it cost you anything. There are costs associated with purchasing a home which typically run just from just under $2,000 to about $5,000 on a $150,000 purchase. The difference comes in whether or not the seller will agree to pay your closing costs.
So, what should you expect to need the funds for and when do you need them – the list below will help you understand what the costs of purchasing a Bend home with a USDA loan is;
- Earnest Money – a typical earnest money for a home that qualifies for USDA is between $500 and $1000 these funds do go towards the purchase of the property and sometimes these funds can be refunded at the time of closing but not all the time. These funds will be cashed by the title company upon acceptance and they will sit in escrow throughout the purchase process.
- Home Inspection, most home inspections run under $500 and most home inspectors want to be paid at the time of the inspection. The home inspection is typically done within 10 business days of the seller accepting your offer.
- Appraisal, the appraisal is ordered by your lender and your lender will collect the fee from you prior to ordering the appraisal. The appraisal is generally ordered about the same time as the home inspection happens. A typical appraisal will cost about $500 to $600.
- If your seller does not pay closing costs there will be closing costs at the time you close the deal which will be 30 to 45 days if all goes well after your seller accepted your offer. These costs can and should be calculated at the time you write your offer, although they will be an estimate they should be pretty close.
Not all homes in Bend qualify for the USDA loan, most of Bend in fact does not. However there are homes that do, these homes are outside the city limits generally. Deschutes River Woods is one neighborhood that does typically qualify for a USDA loan.
Homes for Sale in Deschutes River Woods That Qualify for USDA Loans
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9:37
Last chance …
» Homeless on the High DesertTo see the Second Street Theater production of The Who’s rock opera Tommy. Tonight is the last night. I saw it last night, and it was fantastic!
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12:38
It’s A Buyer’s Market BUT Homes Are Not Free!
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogBend Oregon Home Search Click Me Buyer’s Market?Many real estate professionals have been saying for years that we are in a Buyer’s Market. And we ARE! But what exactly does that mean? Does it mean that every home on the market is over priced? Or that every seller will replace or repair things to make the home appear brand new? Does a buyer’s market mean that there is a set percentage a buyer should consider making an offer for? The answer is NO!
A fellow Real Estate Blogger said it perfectly!
You Can Buy a Home, but You Will Never Ever Steal One - Katherine wrote a great post to help buyers in her area understand that although prices are low, you need an agent to help you determine what a great deal truly is. After reading her post it became apparent that buyers in her area have some of the same thoughts as home buyers in Bend do.
An agent that is knowledgeable in the area can tell you if a home is priced well. Katherine shows this great example;
A Lesson Learned?
While reading Katherine’s post I could not help but think of a couple I was working with, they knew exactly what they wanted in a second home. The perfect home came on the market and they made plans to visit the area and see the property. On the Friday prior to their arrival the home had a major price reduction, one that I knew as their agent would most likely bring multiple offers. This did not worry me as I knew the buyer was well informed of the market and since this was a river front property priced well below any other river front properties I knew they would see the value and make a respectable offer.
The buyer arrived, and they did love the home. We were writing an offer, and the listing agent called to let me know that another offer had been received and that they were giving us the opportunity to submit our offer and have both offers presented at the same time, still I was not worried after all my buyers knew exactly what the market was and they were well educated in the process, we had talked multiple times about when a home hits the sweet spot on pricing it is time to move swiftly and as cleanly as possible. This home had hit the sweet spot.My buyers ran to grab some lunch while I prepared the paperwork. When they came back I had everything in order, all the necessary documents a current Comparative Market Analysis (CMA in Real Estate Lingo) just a couple blanks to complete some signatures and they would be ready for acceptance. This is when they told me what their offer price was, and all that education, all the time we had spent searching for the perfect home in the sweet spot went out the window.
Multiple Offers!!! They Really Do Happen!Knowing they were in a multiple offer situation, knowing the house now listed about $30,000 under value they wrote their offer for $15,000 under list price. No matter what the numbers showed, no matter what they already knew they were determined this was a good offer.
Sadly they did not get the house, and sadly 3 years later even in this decline they have not found the perfect home in the perfect sweet spot. In almost every correspondence I have with them these same words can be found… if only we had listened.
Buyers it is a buyer’s market out there, but what that means is there are a lot of things that can go your way, not that you get to have your cake and eat it to. There is a lot of inventory, prices are low, interest rates are low and often times there can be some heavy negotiating to get you a lot more for your dollar. But when a home is priced well, and is in a price range or area that creates good movement you really need to investigate the situation, and listen to your agent.
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7:53
Bend Short Sales
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogEver since the collapse of the real estate market buyers and sellers alike have had multiple questions about short sales. The Bend real estate market has seen and continues to see it’s fair share of short sales. The good news to both buyers and sellers is that Short Sales are getting closed and they are doing so in a shorter period of time than we saw at the beginning of this environment in most cases.
Bend Oregon Short SalesThese listings are just a sample of homes currently listed as short sales in the $100,000 price range. At the bottom of this post you will find a link to an entire list of homes currently listed as short sales in Bend Oregon.
Searching for homes and including short sales online can be very frustrating for the Central Oregon buyer. There are some simple explanations but it does not make it any less frustrating.
Quick Over View of Short Sale Process- The home is listed typically at the low end of fair market value. This brings a quicker offer obviously.
- A buyer makes a written offer
- The listing agent changes the status to – Contingent Short Sale – which means the seller has accepted the offer and the seller and seller’s agent is waiting on the bank to approve the written offer.
- The property still shows on websites as available – because although the seller has accepted the offer they do not know if the bank will accept the offer…. so there is always a chance that the seller will be starting over so the marketing does not stop.
- When the bank accepts the written offer – the Listing agent will change the status to pending and it will no longer show as available online.
The message in the steps above is to realize that even though these homes show active, do not be surprised if you call, drive by or ask me to show you a home, I may tell you there are other offers on it.
Bend Short Sale Properties
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10:56
Dirty dealings …
» Homeless on the High DesertDo go read Crystal Cox‘s reporting on the dirty dealings, the criminal activities, that have gone on around here in the real estate market through this recent “boom”.
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10:02
Bend Sellers You Deserve Better!
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
I am surprised more often than not at the lack of marketing done by agents on homes that failed to sell in the Bend market. I grew up in South County (Proud to say La Pine) and for years La Pine has been the area I mainly focused on. But life has changed and I am now a Bend girl (also Proud to say). There is no place as special as Central Oregon is, the love we have for our area makes being a listing agent a lot of fun.The average buyer in Central Oregon does not yet live here! This means the internet marketing your agent does is vitally important to getting your home sold.
Think about it – what and where are you reading this right now?
Living The Dream!We have all heard this common phrase with a little sarcastic tone added to it… but don’t you think we have the opportunity to live the dream every day? Central Oregon has a lot of awesome things to offer every age group, we are lucky to have been able to achieve the dream. When I talk to people on the phone, in person or by email and even on Facebook of Twitter more people than not want to live where we already have the privileged to live. I am always amazed at the number of people from near and far that their goal is to be able to live in Central Oregon. With all of that being said, I am saddened by the lack of photos, video and marketing done by many agents in Central Oregon. It’s not their fault though, they don’t know any better or they don’t know how to create some of the best online marketing available.
Where Do They Search?
We all know how powerful the web is and there are statistics all over that will tell you anywhere form 82% to 90% of all home buyers start their search online. This is no surprise is it? Even agents that have possibly failed their sellers know this, but they are unaware of how to get that property seen on the web. Putting a property on the MLS of Central Oregon (MLS = Multiple Listing Service) will push your property out to places like Trulia, Zillow, Realtor.com and other sites we refer to as VOWs (VOW= Virtual Office Websites).This week I was searching for a mountain view property in Bend for a buyer, he had emailed me asking for assistance because every time he did a search the search would have the same list of homes but he could not see the views. Why? Because there were no photos of the view! It made me wonder if the seller and the listing agent knew that in ANY market a home with a view is worth more than one without a view. You can build the same house over and over, but only so many homes have a view, same holds true for riverfront home of course.
I am Taking Listings!
I was also surprised by the lack of video, oh there were a lot of virtual tours most of which were slide show with the same exact photos that the MLS had, which is also the same photos that Zillow, Truila and the likes have. Many times a buyer will be looking at a lot of these different sites so why would you not change things up to showcase different highlights on different sites attracting a wider pool of buyers?If you are thinking of selling your Central Oregon home, I currently have room to take on a few new listings. Let’s get together and talk about what would help get your home sold!
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13:01
Bend Mountain View Properties
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogOne of my favorite things about living in Central Oregon is the beauty that surrounds us. Even on the occasional day when we think life is tough there is beauty all around us, and it often is the mountains of Central Oregon that make me realize everyday has beauty.
View properties come in all shapes and sizes! Pricing is Across the Board!
It always amazes me at how the mountains look different every day, lighting, snow, no snow, sunsets, sunrise it all gives you a different view of the mountains. The view from one angle or another gives you a totally different prospective. Mt. view properties in Bend can vary in size from a city lot to large acreage. Some of the views are off in the distance and some are what I often call “Reach Out and Touch You” views. They can all take your breath away and make you just want to stop and take in the beauty!
In a typical real estate market a view will bring a higher sales price than a property without a view. Below is a slide show of the current Mt. View Properties in Bend Oregon. Keep in mind that when an agent puts a property on the MLS of Central Oregon they determine if a property has a view or not and categorize the property as such. Sometimes as an agent looking for that special property for a buyer I find that the listing agents have not either categorized the property correctly or that they have not included a picture of the view. This is beyond my control and I personally find it a shame not to highlight the beauty that can be found on the property.
Some of these properties have been on the market for a longer period of time than necessary. The are priced correctly and sometimes on the very low end of where the market would indicate they should be priced. If a buyer is looking for a home or property with a mountain view common, sense would say when they viewed the property online they expect to see pictures of these views.
Sellers and Buyers deserve to have the very best representation possible, if you are looking to list your Bend Oregon home or are would like to talk about buying a Central Oregon home, drop me a line or give me a call, I would be happy to discuss my marketing or buyers plan which includes both online and off line marketing.
Complete List of Mountain View Homes in Bend Oregon
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7:37
YO! Mr Happy Smiley Face on KTVZ …
» Homeless on the High DesertYes, Bob, I’m talking to you – Think Progress Green: America’s television meteorologists are the primary source of climate information for most Americans, and are second only to scientists — who have much less access to the general public — in the level of trust they are given. Yet more than half of TV weather reporters don’t believe [...]
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6:10
Area flood advisory …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued an *Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for rain and melting snow in… Western Deschutes County in central Oregon… this includes the city of Redmond… Western Jefferson County in central Oregon… Sherman County in north central Oregon… Wasco County in north central Oregon… until 500 PM PST Thursday *Urban [...]
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5:41
Listen Up … !
» Homeless on the High DesertBreakfast in Bend @ 7am Fridays (today!), on KPOV, 88.9 on the FM dial, where Phil Philbin and I and whomever may wander through the studio take a light hearted look at this week’s goin’s-on, the weather and the weekend’s community calendar mixed with some Free Speech Radio News headlines and Science news from the [...]
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6:05
Listen up … !
» Homeless on the High DesertBreakfast in Bend at seven on Friday mornings – 88.9 FM, KPOV, where Phil Philbin and I and whomever wanders through the studio take a light-hearted look at goin’s on, the weather and local events while bringing you news and science headlines from around the world. From HooDoo to Post, Warm Springs to Fort Rock: [...]
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13:49
Occupy the Courts … !
» Homeless on the High DesertGuest post by Sue Bastian BEND OCCUPY THE COURTS A SATIRICAL CELEBRATION OF CITIZENS UNITED v FEC STARRING BLIND JUSTICE….REPRESENTING the SUPREMES CORP HO……CORPORATE LOBBYIST LET THE CELEBRATION BEGIN!! NARRATOR: We are gathered together to express our appreciation to the Supremes for creating Super People out of legal fictions called corporations. The Supremes have also [...]
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11:52
Climate change is happening, rube …
» Homeless on the High DesertSo put down the Ambien, Prozac, Viagra and crotch-shots on Fox News Kool-Aid and turn off the television, because it is fifty degrees on The Oregon High Desert. Fifty degrees and raining on December the 28th at four thousand feet in elevation just miles as the crow flies from what were once prolific glaciers close [...]
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4:17
Listen up … !
» Homeless on the High DesertBreakfast in Bend, @ 7am. Phil and I and whom ever happens to wander through the studio will endeavor to engage in the yuletide spirit. Broadcast live across The Oregon High Desert - Warm Springs to Gilchrest/LaPine, Black Butte to Post, and because we can see you from our broadcast tower high atop Pine Mountain (thanks [...]
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11:56
$130,000,000 …
» Homeless on the High DesertExpiration of the tax cut will cost Central Oregon one hundred thirty million dollars. Still using use round numbers to make it easier for Tea Baggers and Republicans to understand: there are roughly two hundred fifty thousand (250,000) people on The High Desert, or roughly sixty-two thousand five hundred (62,500) families in Central Oregon – [...]
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7:43
$52,000,000 …
» Homeless on the High DesertFifty-two million dollars. That’s what the expiration of the tax cut will cost Bend. (I’ll use round numbers, to make it easier for Tea Baggers and Republicans to understand) Assuming twenty-five thousand (25,000) families in Bend averaging fifty thousand (50,000) dollars a year earnings losing forty (40) dollars per week in income. Forty (40) dollars [...]
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10:09
Climate change is happening, rube …
» Homeless on the High DesertSo put down the Ambien, Prozac, Viagra and crotch-shots on CNN/Faux News Kool-Aid and turn off the television, because regardless of the Bimbo Bottle Blonde Bobble Heads of the Mainstream Multi-Millionaire Media annual tradition of using snowstorms and cold temperatures to mock global warming, it’s winter!. The suggestion that local winter weather somehow disproves global, long-term warming trends, a recurring theme [...]
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15:45
Been through four booms and five busts here …
» Homeless on the High DesertWhen you figure it takes us five years to catch up to the rest of the country, we’re not even close to the bottom. The housing market isn’t getting worse, it just isn’t getting much better: “Five years into the worst housing depression since the 1930s, the latest monthly data from the Census Bureau indicate that the [...]
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8:20
Federal Judge rules in Bend blogging suit …
» Homeless on the High DesertA federal judge in Oregon has ruled that a Montana woman sued for defamation was not a journalist when she posted online that an Oregon lawyer acted criminally during a bankruptcy case, a decision with implications for bloggers around the country. Crystal L. Cox, a blogger from Eureka, Mont., was sued for defamation by attorney Kevin Padrick when she posted online that he was [...]
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6:40
Good cops …
» Homeless on the High DesertWhile we’ve had a few bad apples in the past, everyone around here should be extremely grateful for the quality and professionalism of the Bend and Redmond Police and the Deschutes County Sheriff Departments… Ex-Sheriff Allegedly Tried To Trade Meth For Sex: Former national Sheriff of the Year Patrick Sullivan was arrested Tuesday seeking to sell [...]
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5:21
Been through four booms and five busts here …
» Homeless on the High DesertHunker down, we’re not even close to the bottom yet. Here is a survey of the 20 top markets, we’re not on it because we’re not as big as, for example, Seattle. For what it’s worth, Northwest Crossing is in the top ten “walkable neighborhoods”.
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12:33
More corporate propaganda …
» Homeless on the High DesertHas anyone else noted our public library has apparently lost anything up -to-date that is even remotely informative, yet the shelves are stocked to the breaking point with the likes of Ann Coulter, Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity?
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5:58
Pretty obvious …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe only thing the Deschutes County office of the State of Oregon Children’s Services Division protects is not the children but the religiously and politically well connected who behave inappropriately with the children. The butt-f**kers and rapists. That and… putting the children back into that environment.
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11:09
Our water doesn’t need “treatment” …
» Homeless on the High DesertOther than one of our city counselors standing to gain financially, we have to ask ourselves “just why do they want to build a pipe and “treat” our water?” Medical Mafia plots mass medication via water supplies – is lithium next? (NaturalNews) Mass medication is getting discussed more among medical experts who insist they know [...]
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9:44
Deschutes migration patterns …
» Homeless on the High DesertCheck this interactive map at forbes.com, click on Deschutes County to view.
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10:23
It’s rare when I agree with The Bulletin …
» Homeless on the High DesertRethink Bend’s Water Project. This project may already cost a staggering $68 million. That is going to drive up water rates for ratepayers by some 40 percent. Now is the time to take another look at the city’s options, to address the concerns of opponents and to ensure that the city’s project is on solid [...]
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11:06
No Greater Joy
» Emerald Bay Photo News and Updates.... for a photographer than to see her images displayed in a beautiful setting.My long-time clients, BBT Architects, recently made me very happy when they launched their new, snazzy website.Thanks, guys! Your new site rocks!
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5:05
Close enough to call it home …
» Homeless on the High DesertAs Miran Istina puts it, she has been living on borrowed time since she was 14. Diagnosed with cancer, she was given just months to live after her health insurer refused to provide her with life-saving surgery. Now 18, Istina, from Sisters Oregon, has spent the past three weeks living in a tent at the [...]
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15:22
Thank goodness for good cops …
» Homeless on the High DesertFolks ’round here need to give a big wave, smile and perhaps even a thank you the next time you see a Bend City Patrol Officer or Deschutes County Sheriff’s Deputy because we have just about the best cops possible, as opposed to Boston and New York City’s Wall Street Rent-A-Pigs.
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8:51
Occupy … !
» Homeless on the High DesertThe video. Occupy Bend march this afternoon at Wall and Newport.
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8:53
Occupy Bend … !
» Homeless on the High DesertOctober 15th. I’m not a fan of Facebook, but here’s the link.
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9:05
Be forewarned, CSD …
» Homeless on the High Desert“Issac”, “Vicky”, that while you collude with our corrupt district attorney’s office to protect a convicted child rapist, a registered sex offender whose condition of patrol is no contact with minor children, no contact with my grand-children, you are putting my grand-children back into harm’s way. What ever happens to my grand-children, will happen to [...]
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5:37
Still can’t help but wonder …
» Homeless on the High DesertIf all those folks out there watering the sidewalks think they’re gonna’ grow?
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17:43
I’ve said it before …
» Homeless on the High DesertI’ll say it again: every pedestrian in this town should be armed with a high caliber pistol, so that when some dumb f**king white tea bagger n****r tries to run over them in the crosswalk you just shoot ‘em in the head, and keep walking. The day is coming, n****rs.
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8:01
Good riddance to bad rubbish …
» Homeless on the High DesertI learned how to read five decades ago reading The Bend Bulls**ten, but it has been at least ten years since it has been anything near the quality paper it was during Bob Chandler’s day, or provides any information of value to me. It has for the psst twenty years been nothing more than a [...]
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7:17
Will it grow … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertI can’t help but wonder if all those folks out there watering their sidewalks think they’re gonna’ grow? Those sprinkler heads are really pretty simple to adjust, and like garbage cans and unshoveled snow, it’s an obstruction, and against the law.
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9:48
YO! Walden, where the hell are you … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertRon Wyden has made it to six hundred (600) Townhalls in his tenure, and the best you can do is breakfast at the “D”?
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18:57
Plastic cars …
» Homeless on the High DesertI don’t know if you idiots are aware of just how much plastic your BMW is made of, but to put it shortly you need to be aware of that when you cop an attitude because I’m in the crosswalk you want to violate, because I WILL kick your doors in, and if you have [...]
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15:07
Been through four booms and five busts here …
» Homeless on the High DesertWe’re not even close to the bottom of the Housing market crash: “The number of people who bought new homes fell for the fourth straight month. Sales this year are on track to finish as the worst on records dating back half a century.”
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11:37
Just because …
» Homeless on the High DesertYou are a practicing attorney (perhaps even a member of the new district attorney’s staff?) and a failed recent Congressional candidate, doesn’t mean your convicted rapist and registered sex offender brother can be in contact with my grandchildren. You are not The Law nor are you above The Law. Don’t piss off old men who [...]
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8:20
What’s in a name … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertIf I were the Bend/LaPine School District I would probably find someone to do contract work on our schools named something other than “The Stoner Group”.
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7:25
Motorist beware …
» Homeless on the High DesertIf someone tries to run over me in a crosswalk today, as that white n****r squaw in the silver Crown Vic tried yesterday, I’ll kick your doors in, jerk you out of the window and crush your head into the pavement. I don’t care if you are a woman – violating a pedestrian occupied crosswalk [...]
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7:42
More graffiti …
» Homeless on the High DesertAnother gasmask, and “Your government is lying to you.” Previous graffiti: Are your kids ready for what you’ve done?
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7:16
Must be the fresh air, pure water, clear skies …
» Homeless on the High DesertBy way of Dr Myers: Hometown boy “Harry Lonsdale is a godless Oregonian who has just offered a $50,000 prize plus $2,000,000 in funding for research into the origins of life. A millionaire scientist who once ran as a Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate has just launched a $50,000 prize to promote research on [...]
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15:51
New Rules …
» Homeless on the High DesertYou violate the crosswalk I occupy, I kick your doors in. Got a problem with that? Stop the car, get out, and make something of it. Violating an occupied crosswalk is Assault With A Deadly Weapon. I’ll kill you – I’ll grind your face into the pavement and stomp your head until what little brains [...]
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12:47
What do you need to be a successful food photographer?
» Emerald Bay Photo News and Updates7 years ago, I wrote an article for Oreilly.com on food photography. I was just starting out in the trade, and the article basically chronicled my first tender step into the intimidating world of food photography. I would be doing many things differently these days (since I'm older, wiser and equipped with much, much better gear), and writing a much different article, but I suppose it was
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10:05
Are your kids ready (photo) …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe downtown graffiti I told you about yesterday depicting a gas mask accompanying the simple question “Are your kids ready for what you’ve done.”
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9:57
Are your children ready … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertSaw an interesting bit of grafitti downtown this morning – about four square and accompanying a depiction of a gas mask is the simple question “Are your kids ready for what you’ve done?” Are your kids ready for what you’ve done?
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8:54
White Buffalo Returns …
» Homeless on the High DesertOregon’s rare white buffalo herd grows with three new calves By Richard Cockle, The Oregonian What may be the world’s biggest herd of white buffalo has just gotten bigger. Three white bison calves were born on a 288-acre sanctuary near Bend over the Mother’s Day weekend, bringing the number of white bison to 14. “Everybody is shocked that [...]
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5:23
It’s fire season …
» Homeless on the High DesertWith a couple million acres of Texas grasslands on fire: Tree Mortality: 1980 – 2008, Mountain Pine Bark Beetle
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14:35
Springtime on the High Desert …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe sun is shining, pollen count is up, babes are out jogging in tight shorts and halter tops, and scrotum sucking tea baggers are riding credit card Harleys. F**king pussies, I built my Harley from parts, and I own it.
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8:48
You, are the “alien” …
» Homeless on the High Desert1890, one hundred twenty one (121) years ago, my great grand-father came here to log the big wood. Married a “local gal”, settled down and raised a family. 1910, one hundred one (101) years ago, my childrens’ mother’s great grand-father came here to build a mill. Settled down and raised a family. My grand-mother was [...]
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14:53
Aliens, are from Mars …
» Homeless on the High DesertSo… today both The Bulls**ten and The Source published the same letter from the same ignorant daughter f**ker describing immigrants as so kind of other-worldly creatures from… some where else. Well, yawl came here from some where else. You’re the immigrants, the aliens. This is my hometown. And we don’t have a problem with folks moving here. [...]
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6:45
Turn your radio on …
» Homeless on the High DesertBreakfast In Bend 7am Friday at 106.7 KPOV LPFM, Bend’s Community Radio.
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5:41
Broken radiation monitors in Richland WA …
» Homeless on the High DesertFor you newbies to The Cascadia High Desert out there, at a bit more than a hundred miles north and as much a part of the East Cascade Front as we Richland is pretty much next door, pretty much the neighborhood. Home. After Japan nuclear radiation was detected in Richland Washington drinking water local CBS [...]
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5:51
Body of Bend man found …
» Homeless on the High DesertBody Of Bend Man Killed By Tsunami Found GRANTS PASS, Ore. — The body of a man washed out to sea last month when the tsunami from Japan hit the Northern California coast has been found 330 miles north in Oregon near the mouth of the Columbia River, the Oregon State Medical Examiner’s Office said [...]
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5:12
What War brings home …
» Homeless on the High DesertLocal soldier, wife, son dead in Washington suicide/homicide. Stewart shot and killed himself Tuesday following a high-speed car chase on Interstate 5 near Olympia. His wife, Kristy Sampels, was found mortally injured in the car from a gunshot wound and died at the scene, said Thurston County Coroner Gary Warnock, who ruled her death a [...]
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18:17
Credit where credit is due …
» Homeless on the High DesertLike the Wall Street Journal, if you stay away from the op-ed pages The Bulletin can be a pretty damned good newspaper. Today for sure.
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6:57
We’ll never find her …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe local lamestream media is reporting authorities have abandoned the search for Lori’s body. She’ll never be found, never come home.
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20:31
Go back where you came from …
» Homeless on the High DesertYou’re not welcome here. I am sick and tired of the rat-f**kers who have moved here and destroyed my hometown, destroyed the way of life my family enjoyed here for four generations, and look down on and mistreat the locals as they live high on the credit bubble that has destroyed not only the local [...]
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19:14
Breakfast in Bend …
» Homeless on the High DesertOur show from yesterday, March 25, with Thom, Tris, Michael and Steve and guest Taffy Gleason of the Bend Community Center.
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13:05
I get letters …
» Homeless on the High DesertRon Boozell (2010 Bend City Council Candidate): The integrity of John Costa should be questioned, not our new district attorney. I can tell you from first-hand experience as a candidate last summer that Costa uses his paper to protect his personal and political interests, and to slander those who do not represent them. Yellow journalism [...]
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9:57
Final public hearings scheduled for County's draft Comprehensive Plan Begin March 29, 2011
» Central Oregon LandwatchDRAFT DESCHUTES COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS PUBLIC HEARINGS
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8:17
Spring has sprung, it’s fire season … !
» Homeless on the High DesertThree wildfires are raging outside Golden Colorado, fueled by tinder-dry vegetation and fanned by high winds forcing the evacuation of 320 homes in the foothills west of Denver on Monday, fire officials said. The largest blaze, the Indian Gulch fire, has blackened 700 acres and his threatening 750 homes. February is not typically considered part [...]
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14:56
It’s here …
» Homeless on the High DesertUC Berkley: Japan Nuclear Fallout Radiation Detected In California As “downwinders” South Central and Eastern Oregon – where I grew up drinking surface water and fresh milk and eating gardened veggies and wild game – along with Southern and Eastern Idaho, Western Montana and Southern Alberta were subjected to some of the highest post Hiroshima [...]
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16:14
It’s the new sub-prime …
» Homeless on the High DesertTwo years ago I published an essay suggesting that our local college and “newspapers” – the entertainment rag that’s just in it for the advertising dollars The Source and the local corporate government propaganda outlet The Bulls**ten – are not doing our unemployed population any favors by encouraging them to borrow money to go for “re-training”, [...]
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15:46
Arm the pedestrians … !
» Homeless on the High DesertEvery pedestrian in this town should be armed, so that when assholes blow through the crosswalks we occupy we can call it self-defense.
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14:44
Rally for Workers’ Rights …
» Homeless on the High DesertUnity Rally for Workers Rights Tuesday March 15th, 2011 from 5:30-6:30 pm On the steps of the Bend-Lapine School District Administration Office 520 Northwest Wall Street (Bend Oregon) Across America, worker’s rights are under attack. Recently, legislation was passed to abolish collective bargaining rights and erode union strength. The 8 hour work day, 5 day [...]
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18:19
YO! T E A B A G G E R …
» Homeless on the High DesertFive hundred and fifty people on your mailing list!? Wow. I get twice that here from Bend alone everyday. By people not nearly as gullible as you. I’ve got an idea, why don’t you stupid scrotum suckers have another one of your rallies downtown in that fenced in area. The one with only two exits. [...]
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9:38
Where are the brothels … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertTen years ago there wasn’t a single tattoo parlor in this town. Now they’re all over the place. We used to have brothels around here, where are they now?
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9:39
Not a lot of credibility …
» Homeless on the High DesertWith a White Authoritarian Dominion Supremacist – a racial, religious and homophobic bigot – in your administration, and a Rapist on your faculty.
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15:01
Climate change isn’t happening, Rube …
» Homeless on the High DesertYou just keep telling yourself that it’s all just hoax, as the narrow, towering lodgepole pines that populate the Pacific Northwest’s western forests may disappear in the coming decades due to climate change and attacking beetles. Seven hundred thousand square miles across the Pacific Northwest, an area greater than the State of Washington, stand dead, [...]
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23:47
Great Bank Owned Homes In Central Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Looking at the bank owned homes in La Pine, Sunriver and Three Rivers South it seems that the numbers may be growing a little. Many of the homes that are priced well are still available this week. Although winter generally brings slower sales, recent bank owned sales have continued no matter what the weather. Many [...]
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13:56
Listen up … !
» Homeless on the High DesertH Bruce Miller will join Tristan, Michael, Steve and I tomorrow morning on Breakfast in Bend. 7am at 106.7 KPOV LPFM, Bend’s Community Radio.
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2:15
Bourbon Street Fried Chicken
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBourbon Street Fried Chicken The newest craze hitting the internets is my creation and mine alone. I call it, Fried Food Friday. I’m very proud of it and my cholesterol loves it too. You can send me your Fried Food Friday pics … Continue reading → -
Olde Towne Pizza – Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantOlde Towne Pizza I think its obvious that I need to update my Best of Bend lists. I’d promise to do it but I’d just let you down. One list in particular my be the Best Pizza in Bend list. … Continue reading →
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10:12
The Gift of Details
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesAs anybody who has ever built (or has been involved in building) a house knows - the devil is in the details. From a solid foundation, to straight framing, to the way a window has been designed to capture and funnel light into a room, and finally to the manner fabrics, stone, and textures lend depth - these are all essential components that make up a home. Yet it comes down to the details to
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10:22
YO! Bulls**ten …
» Homeless on the High DesertNo one here gives a rat’s ass that US House of Representatives Majority Whip Eric Cantor’s (PA) mother died, there was no good reason to run her obit.
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13:41
Our very own idiot …
» Homeless on the High Desert“We don’t think tax cuts are something that we have to be “pay for” because it’s the people’s money to begin with, not the government’s.” ~Greg Walden And just who does a government “By the People, For the People” belong to?
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16:22
Sad news …
» Homeless on the High DesertBruce Miller has announced he’ll be closing his blog The Wandering Eye at the Source notably because of the anonymous trolls there – the same trolls that ultimately led to the demise of Bend dot com. Sorry to see you go, Bruce.
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16:34
About the Library …
» Homeless on the High DesertMaybe if a bunch a drunken f**king homeless bums weren’t sleeping at the computer terminals, maybe the rest of us could actually, you know, use them.
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16:17
I’m betting on Bank of the Cascades …
» Homeless on the High DesertNearly 100 bailed-out banks will collapse never-the-less.
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13:03
Former Bendite found … ?
» Homeless on the High DesertBONES FOUND on island ‘may belong to Amelia Earhart.’ …..
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10:41
Black Helicopters …
» Homeless on the High DesertThis week both The Bulls**ten and The Source WTF reported that drones will soon fill the 300 days plus of sunshine skies of the Oregon High Desert. With the Fourth Reich ascendant in what was once “America”, no surprise. Before too much longer brown-shirted jack-booted thugs will be kicking down doors and hauling Obama-loving atheist [...]
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14:02
Worst “News”paper ever …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe Bulls**ten. Sad to report I learned how to read reading The Bulls**ten. Fair and balanced my rosy red ass. Wall Street propaganda, nothing more.
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11:51
Dead, dying, waiting to burn …
» Homeless on the High DesertTree Mortality: 1980 – 2008, Mountain Pine Bark Beetle
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6:24
Celebrate Day of the Dead All Weekend in Bend: And lucha libre wrestling
» The Blender
While Halloween tends to get all the attention, there's another holiday this week, and that's the Day of the Dead (Dia de los Muertos), a traditional Mexican holiday coinciding with All Saint's Day meant to celebrate deceased ancestors.Here Read More...
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Celebrate Day of the Dead All Weekend in Bend: And lucha libre wrestling
» The BlenderWhile Halloween tends to get all the attention, there's another holiday this week, and that's the Day of the Dead (Dia de los Muertos), a traditional Mexican holiday coinciding with All Saint's Day meant to celebrate deceased ancestors.Here Read More...
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15:46
Letter to The Source …
» Homeless on the High DesertIncluding Mining and the Timber Industry in your statistics is what is known as “proofiness”, a common tactic amongst Lawyers, Republicans and Other Damned Liars who throw out numbers not entirely germane to the topic at hand to sway opinion through confusion. Mining has never been a big employer around here, and the Timber Industry [...]
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8:57
Yo! Bulls**ten …
» Homeless on the High DesertHow much did Greg Walden and The Teabaggers pay you to run that glorifying Chris The Clown Dudley autobiography today? ‘Neutral’ news my rosy red ass. A basketball player, a Harlem Globe Trotter, a Clown. A piss poor one at that… no experience in anything: never so much as caught a stray dog or sat [...]
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15:07
Bend companies exporting jobs …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe AFL-CIO “Job Tracker” program reports the following companies have exported jobs out of Bend, out of Oregon and out of the “United States”: Bright Wood Corporation Cessna Aircraft Company METOLIUS MOUNTAIN PRODUCTS, INC. Philips Respironics TRG CUSTOMER SOLUTIONS, INC. All are contributors to the Greg Walden and Chris ‘Clown‘ Dudley campaigns.
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16:48
I’m serious …
» Homeless on the High DesertThe solution to the assholes killing pedestrians in crosswalks is to start kicking these asshole’s doors in, smash their windows, jerk ‘em out of the car and smash their faces into the pavement. Try me, I’m actually looking forward to it.
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13:52
A few well placed rocks …
» Homeless on the High DesertThrough cell-phone talking motorists’ windshields should resolve the killing pedestrians in crosswalks problem. Or stop them and make something of it…
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LCDC Releases Draft Remand Order of Bend UGB Expansion; Major Victory for LandWatch
» Central Oregon LandwatchThe State Land Conservation and Development Commission has released a draft remand order (attached below) of the City of Bend’s proposed Urban Growth Boundary expansion. The draft, which is expected to be substantively identical to the soon-to-be-issued final order, upholds many key arguments made in a protest by Central Oregon LandWatch as well as arguments made in a separate protest by Bend resident and LandWatch supporter Toby Bayard on the group’s behalf.
“The terms of this remand represent a major victory for LandWatch,” said the group’s attorney, Paul Dewey, whose involvement on the issue spans more than five years.
According to Dewey, the commission rejected numerous arguments made by the City intended to significantly and unjustifiably increase the amount of land brought into the UGB for residential needs and supported key arguments made by LandWatch calling for more efficient use of land inside the existing boundary.
“The overall effect of the decision should be to reduce the approximately 9,000 acres the City requested to less than half that amount,” said Dewey.
Under terms specified by the commission, the City will still be able to significantly expand its current boundary which could end up being one of the largest in state history and leave Bend with more than enough room to grow over the next two decades and perhaps far beyond.
Despite the significant reduction, Dewey believes the decision is generous in that the population and economic growth forecast used by the City, which is based on trends evident during the recent “bubble” expansion, is unrealistically high. LandWatch’s argument that projections should be revised downward was rejected by the commission.
Additionally, the commission allowed the City to add 500 acres for second homes even though LandWatch argued that Central Oregon’s destination resort market was supplying that need, and that market has collapsed.
“In most regards the commission’s decision should be considered quite generous,” said Dewey. “The commission’s acceptance of the population and economic growth forecast and second home calculations alone will result in far more land coming in than the City’s going to need over the current planning horizon.”
The commission did, however, agree with LandWatch’s fundamental argument that the public facilities plans submitted by the City needed to be redone, as the plans essentially predetermined where future growth would go. The commission also ruled in favor of LandWatch’s arguments that the City’s proposal did not adequately account for the costs of serving the land it proposed to bring in.
The overall result, said Dewey, is that Bend’s expansion will likely be limited to less than half the currently proposed size and focused more intently on growing to the east on land that will be far less expensive to serve and where relatively low land values will help facilitate a greater diversity of needed housing types and variety of uses.
Several other significant benefits of the decision are that it likely forecloses on the construction of an additional bridge over the Deschutes, a sewer interceptor along Tumalo Creek, and should prevent the need for major overhauls to the current Westside street infrastructure to accommodate further westward expansion.
“Each of these scenarios would have represented unnecessary costs that would be born by residents throughout the city to serve a relatively small amount of future development,” said Dewey. “That just doesn’t make any sense, especially when the backlog of infrastructure needed for existing development measures in the hundreds of millions of dollars and 40-50% of land in the City is still un-served by sewer. The City’s proposal prioritized the construction of high-end Westside homes above just about anything else.”
“Certain interests have attempted to politicize this process by asserting that LCDC is trying to turn Bend into Portland,” said Erik Kancler, the group’s executive director. “But nothing could be further from the truth.
“No one’s trying to turn Bend into Portland, not LCDC, and certainly not LandWatch, which is based in Bend. The fact of the matter is that the City of Bend has developed at half the density of cities like Medford. With its current expansion proposal, the City is assuming even lower densities for future development. That sort of sprawl is costly to taxpayers, leads to traffic congestion, shortage of infrastructure, and creates numerous other problems that nobody wants to deal with, not residents, not planners, not elected officials. Everyone wants their city to function efficiently. That’s what our involvement in this process has been about.”
For more information on the what the terms of the remand mean, please see the memo from Paul Dewey attached below. LandWatch's full protest letter is also attached along with two subsequent memos to LCDC.
Status as of Oct 8, 2010 is that the City has threatened to appeal LCDC's remand order if the commission doesn't address certain issues the city has raised in criticism of the draft.
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14:01
Tweakers …
» Homeless on the High DesertSo…. I sit down at the library to check my e-mail, get everything dialed in and… a bunch of tweakers get in a fight. In the Library. In the Library Computer Lab. Knock over the monitor at the workstation I’m sitting at (pissed me off – the stupid scrotum suckers have no idea how close [...]
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11:02
I don’t know, maybe it’s just me but …
» Homeless on the High DesertIf I were the school board I probably would have thought twice about letting a contract out to The “Stoner” Group, www dot stoner dot com.
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10:55
Yo! Bend City Council …
» Homeless on the High DesertI realize that getting re-elected is more important than anything else in the whole world right now, but I have a couple of pertinent questions: 1) Are the crosswalks and sidewalks downtown going to be this totally f**ked up all winter? Which is, of course, just around the corner and, in spite of recent global [...]
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More Video from the Bend Roots Revival
» The BlenderWe're in the process of editing down the hour-plus of footage we collected over the weekend at the Bend Roots Revival, which I'm going to go ahead and say was one of the coolest things I've seen during my time in Bend.
Festival founder and creative director Mark Ransom told me that he figured more than 1,000 people were on hand for Saturday, which showcased much of Bend's most solid acts, including a rockingly explosive set from the ARead More...
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Bend Roots Revival: Friday in Review, Saturday Preview
» The BlenderThe Bend Roots Revival is in full swing at the Century Center (if you're still having trouble finding it, just turn off of Century at the new US Bank) and last night was a hell of a coming out party for the fest's new venue.
By the time Moon Mountain Ramblers hit the BIGS Stage around 8pm, the place was flooded with local music fans (maybe double of any prior Roots fest) who saw what I thought was the best Ramblers set in a very long while.
Another hit of Friday was Emma Hill anRead More...
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Bend Roots Kick Off Video: A Whole Lotta Grateful Dead
» The BlenderThe Bend Roots Revival kicked off last night around town and I made it down to the Victorian Cafe where Rising Tide, Bend's own Grateful Dead tribute band was kicking off the festival, as is becoming tradition.
As longtime Bend Roots fans know, there tends to be plenty of Dead covers (or covers of songs the Grateful Dead also covered) throughout the festival, so it's fitting that the Revival should kick off with a Jerry-centric party. That's essentially what we had at the Vic patio -- Read More...
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Bend Roots Revival Kicks Off Tonight
» The BlenderYou'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon to get into the Century Center, but the Bend Roots Revival (about which we'll be writing/posting video/raving for the next few days on this blog) is kicking into motion tonight. Here's a link to our full festival preview, which is also a two-page spread in the print edition.
With a sort of SXSW approach, Bend Roots is taking over many local venues tonight. Here's tonight's lineups and venues:
4-6pm 10 Barrel Brewing – Blaze and Read More...
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14:01
9/9 noon: Ride Your Bike to Downtown Bend Bike Parking Dedication
» Ad HOC : Words + Ideas
Tomorrow, Thursday, September 9, noon to 3pm, 25 NW Minnesota (in front of thump coffee). Get on your bikes and ride!
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10:31
Our Bend Winery Opening October 2010!
» Volcano Vineyards BlogBut, we will be closing the Downtown Bend Tasting Lounge at the end of September. Sooooo sad to leave Downtown, but in order to move the company forward, we decided to get back to basics and focus on production of our Volcano wines and our Magmita Sangrias. Our Bend winery will be located in the new Century Center off of 14th Street (aka Century Drive) on Bend's westside. We should be open in October!
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12:49
Football Season is HERE!!!
» DT from da FPIt's here. It's finally here. Football season. My favorite team starts playing tomorrow night and I can't wait. Since I was a kid I've loved the NY Jets. Why? I have no idea. But I'm committed, through the good times and the bad (and there have been a lot of those).
Anyway, it's here and I'm stoked!!
Need your favorite team's latest jersey or a keychain for your brother's birthday? Check out www.teammascot.com. They've got it all!! -
A couple more things for my list......
» DT from da FPSo I thought of a couple more things for my birthday list. It seems that most of what I want is cooking related. Go figure.
These are such cute mixing bowls: (These have been purchased!!! I am so excited. Thanks, Mac!)
I think the kids would love eggs made like this:
I would love pancakes made like this!!
I've also been dying for a mandoline:
This just seems handy. For pot pies, fruit pies and enchilada pies, just to name a few.
Now this is pretty, different and lovely.
Finally, I've really been wanting a new tea kettle. One that isn't silver. So many choices. I really like the Rachel Ray one (seen here in green).
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Getting Older.........
» DT from da FPMy adorable daughter is turning 5 next week. It is amazing and wonderful and astounding all at the same time. She is no longer a little girl. Now she is a girl. Funny, beautiful and smart. Most importantly she is very interesting. She has a great personality and incredible insights into the world around her. I like her a lot.
This makes me think of my own aging process since my birthday comes just a few weeks after hers. We're both hitting milestones this year. I am very excited to be turning 40. Just like when I turned 30 I view it as a new decade. An opportunity to wipe the slate clean and start over. How cool is that? All the dumb messed up stuff I did in my thirties is over and done with. I get to make new choices, have new and amazing ideas and live the life I've always wanted. Ok, not really that last part because I am already living the life I've always wanted.
Am I having a big party? Darn tootin' I am! I am going to relish in my age and my wisdom and my experience and my abilities and my friends and my family and everything and everyone who makes me who I am.
Yehaw!!!!!!
I may not be turning 5 but I can still make a birthday list. So here goes (with the forewarning that I can add to this list at any time because it is my birthday!)
Pioneer Woman Cookbook - this just looks fab!
Bakerella Cookbook - because I'm worth it!
Mary Lake Thompson Bicycle Apron - Found HERE
Downlow Glow for my bike - because my bike is cool and this would make it even cooler!
Gift cards to Lowe's are ALWAYS wanted and appreciated!!!
And I'm sure I'll think of more great ideas as I prep to jump from one decade to the next. Now off to plan a lollipop birthday for a future 5 year old!!
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10:00
The Source’s Best of Bend!
» Hack BendThe Source‘s Best of Bend issue is on the stands now—this is the results issue from the poll they ran, so this is really the Readers’ Choice Best of Bend—and I am both honored and humbled to see that Hack Bend won the Best Blog for the second year in a row.
Honorable mention is Central Oregon Athlete, which deserves the accolades just as much, if not more.
A big thank you to everyone who voted! Seriously, this blog is fun to write, but it’s really all of the great feedback and interaction from you that makes it great, and it wouldn’t be nearly the blog that it is without it.
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Bend Roots Open Meeting Tonight with Music from the Mostest
» The BlenderBend Roots Revival, Bend's quintessential local music event, is slated for September 23-26...which is actually pretty soon, considering this summer is ripping by.
As local music fans know, the location of the festival has shifted to the Century Center, an expansive indoor/outdoor space on Century Drive that's also home to the West Bend Tennis Center and other businesses. Ramping up to the festival, there's been the Hump Day Hash concert series, which this week brings in Mark Ransom's wRead More...
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My Journey to Losing my House - Chapter 4
» DT from da FP
I really should have written before this but alas, life got in the way. The journey has been continuing and has been quite an adventure so far. On the home sale front we got another buyer and made it all the way to the inspection phase. We thought we would be moving in the next couple of weeks but it all fell apart when the inspector said we had termites and the buyer pulled out. We have searched all over the house, underneath, inside and outside and cannot find these pests anywhere but it is too late. Our buyer is long gone.
But here's where the journey gets interesting. We've been praying and asking the Lord for direction and by asking Him to guide us we commit follow where he leads. This is not easy. There is no manual and I have not seen Him writing on any walls as of late. Therefore, all we have are the circumstances of life to be our map.
That being said an inspection report of pests that don't exist is a pretty clear sign that it is time to do the next thing. For us the next thing is foreclosure. In all honesty, it is really sad. Who wants this for their life? Not me. But it is not about me right? (The correct answer here is: right!)
More and more information has been made available to us through this process and we feel compelled to make the best decision we can make for ourselves and our children. That appears, at this point, to be letting our house go. Man, what a bummer.
Then again, I would rather endure this now and do the right thing than try to take my own path and find myself way outside the will of God. I know about a guy named Jonah who tried that and it did not work out so well for him. You remember, big fish and all.
Well, we'll keep on our journey - we actually got the letter and our house will be auctioned off on November 29, 2010 (oh joy!). It is not easy, nor is it fun, but as a friend reminded me recently - God is good. Regardless of our circumstances and our earthly challenges. God is good.
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Bourbon Street Bend
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBourbon Street BendBourbon Street Bend has finally opened its doors to the public this past Friday, July 23rd and the following day had a line out the door. Good thing too cause I was getting tired of hearing from the peanut gallery about how the evil empire of McMicheal and friends some how run Downtown Bend like Master Blaster runs Barter Town.There have been a lot of rumors flying around about
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Video From the Bite of Bend Stage: Rubblebucket and March Fourth Marching Band
» The BlenderOK, I'm a little late on this, but there are some things people need to know about last weekend:
1) The Saturday lineup for the Bite of Bend was some of the best festival music we've ever had in this town.
2) When it's rained for three straight weeks and finally gets sunny, people in Bend go nuts, bonkers, bananas.
AND
3) Rubblebucket. Say it. Learn it. Know it. You'll be hearing that phrase a lot in the next year. This band is one of the most innovative, fresh, paRead More...
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Rubblebucket: They're probably the best free show you'll see this summer
» The BlenderWhile putting together some advance coverage for the Bite of Bend yesterday, I finally spent some time listening to Rubblebucket, a Brooklyn/Vermont-based 10-piece genre-smashing, dance-rock band that is playing for free at the annual food festival on Saturday, June 26.
Rubblebucket, which combines West African rhythms with cutting-edge indie rock poppiness (and plenty of horns), has been gaining attention as of late, landing them on national festival lineups including High Sierra and Read More...
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Bite of Bend Schedule and Music Lineup: March Fourth Marching Band, Ascetic Junkies and more
» The BlenderIt might still be a month off (June 26 and 27), but the music and event schedule for the Bite of Bend was just released. As far as the free music lineup is concerned, this is looking to be one of the stronger music offerings we've seen from the Bite in recent years.
Headlining the event on Saturday night is March Fourth Marching Band, the Portland mega group that is, as its name implies, a freaking marking band, complete with plenty of drums, horns and more flair than you can shake a Read More...
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Bite of Bend Schedule and Music Lineup: March Fourth Marching Band, Ascetic Junkies and more
» The BlenderIt might still be a month off (June 26 and 27), but the music and event schedule for the Bite of Bend was just released. As far as the free music lineup is concerned, this is looking to be one of the stronger music offerings we've seen from the Bite in recent years.
Headlining the event on Saturday night is March Fourth Marching Band, the Portland mega group that is, as its name implies, a freaking marking band, complete with plenty of drums, horns and more flair than you can shake a Read More...
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12:22
First Friday Art Gallery Walk - Grace Bishko at High Desert Gallery, Bend Oregon
» High Desert Gallery of Central OregonJoin us tonight at High Desert Gallery and meet Grace Bishko during First Friday Gallery Walk Artist Reception -- Friday May 7, from 5 to 9pm. The exhibit and sale will focus on hand-pulled prints and original paintings by the artist. During her more than 37 years of creating art, Grace Bishko has taught at Rutgers, Moore College of Art and University of the Arts, both in Philadelphia, and taught privately in Oaxaca, Mexico. The exceptional quality of Grace Bishko's artistic vision continues to capture the imagination. See you tonight -- Meet Grace during the Bend, Oregon First Friday Art Gallery Walk and enjoy refreshments, live music by a Central Oregon favorite, Bellavia. High Desert Gallery is located in downtown Bend Oregon at 10 NW Minnesota Avenue at The Oxford,
For more exhibition information visit: An Interview with Grace Bishko
About High Desert Gallery: High Desert Gallery & Custom Framing, The Art & Soul of Central Oregon™ is an award winning fine art and custom picture framing gallery with retail gallery locations in Bend, Oregon and Sisters Oregon. High Desert Frameworks! the award-winning framing studio for the gallery is located at 61 NW Oregon Avenue at Lava in downtown Bend, Oregon. The gallery specializes in Central Oregon Artists & Beyond™ and Stellar Custom Framing. For more information please visit: www.highdesertgallery.com or call toll free 1-866-549-6250.
Want to be in the know? Then follow us on via Google Buzz, RSS, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to our blog. To download your free iTunes or Android app visit: High Desert Gallery App Store. The Art & Soul of Central Oregon™ and Central Oregon Artists & Beyond™ are trademarks of High Desert Gallery & Custom Framing of Central Oregon.
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My Journey to Losing my House - Chapter 3
» DT from da FPI recently heard a C.S. Lewis quote that I really liked.
“Our Father refreshes us on the journey with some pleasant inns, but will not encourage us to mistake them for home.”
This is such a great thought, on so many levels. For our family's current situation it is a great reminder of our purpose and our calling. We are Christ Followers. No more. No less. Where He leads us we must go. In doing so we will find His provision, His peace and a deep sense of joy because we are in the center of His will.
It is not easy to stay, as some of my good friends put it, under the spigot of His blessing. There are many things that pull us in other directions and sometimes we find we have strayed but it is always possible to get back under the spigot. And that is our responsibility - to stay focused and on track.
Our current update is: we got an offer on the house, then it was withdrawn. We lowered the price again, after not having any interest, and immediately got another offer, which we believe is a strong one. Hopefully, the bank thinks so too.
It is strange because I haven't planted anything this year. No flowers yet or veggies for our garden because I am unsure if we will be here to see them come to maturity or not. I had some great ideas to finish our back yard and now those are out the window. Oh, well. At least some random bulbs did come up and have been lovely to look at.
Emotionally I go up and down. The unknown is difficult to deal with sometimes, but it isn't my top priority. Ultimately, I am practicing trust and each day brings it's own challenges in that effort.
So that's why I really do like Lewis' quote because this is a pleasant inn but I cannot mistake it for my home.
I have decided to name whatever house we are in at the moment "Fish Inn" to remind me it is temporary and of the things I love - like standing in rivers and catching steelhead.
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16:39
I Heart ... Food
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesFrom a recent food shoot ... Menu by the amazingly talented chef Lisa Glickman. Wine furnished by the equally fabulous Twist Cocktails. Indian Spice Beet SoupTuna Tartar CornetBeef BourguignonExquisite wine selection...Blood Orange SorbetYes, I ate it all, and it was fantastic. If you want to wet your appetite just a tad more, cruise on over here. -
16:15
Nordic Wonder
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesGrowing up in Central Europe and spending a good part of the first 20 years of my life traveling the continent, my architectural aesthetics were infused with all sorts of different styles: the ancient, romantic buildings of Rome, Florence and Venice; the playful designs of Spain; the straight-forward, functional structures of Switzerland and Germany; and finally - the ultra-modern, sober edifices
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Blog updates
» Hack BendIf you follow Hack Bend primarily through RSS, then you may not notice any changes, but if you visit the site regularly you will. I have (finally) upgraded the blog from my own homegrown software to WordPress, which will give me much more flexibility to do some things I’ve been wanting to do for awhile.
Right now the site looks more-or-less fine, but there are still going to be a number of tweaks and changes, and if anything looks wonky in the meantime, it’s probably on my list to be fixed. Bear with me! One of the things I’d like to do is completely revamp the theme so there might be a bit of chaos while I figure that out.
And I’ll still be trying to get some blogging out there for y’all at the same time. So if you find anything weird or wrong, or just have suggestions or ideas for me, drop me a line so I can check it out.
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Restaurant Q & A - April 16
» Bend Oregon RestaurantNew feature, you can either read all the questions and answers or simply watch the movie.I've been having fun with the questions that I've been getting through my Q&A Service. It's a site where anyone can ask me anything and they can be anonymous or leave their name. I added the app to the right side of this blog so you can simply ask me anything you like.I got a nice T&G sitting next to me and
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A good reason to start STUMBLING!
» DT from da FP
So my new favorite thing to do is STUMBLE!. Now I'm well aware of my physical clumsiness so I don't need any reminders of my scraped knees, scratched hands or stubbed toes. But this is very cool.
By signing up at stumbleupon.com and adding the button to my toolbar I have access to all kinds of websites and blogs that pertain to things I love. Such as: gardening, kids, interior design, fitness and cooking.
By clicking the STUMBLE! button I am directed to sites that I have interest in (because I've chosen the topics I want) and I find all kinds of interesting things that I would never be able to find on my own in a million years of googling.
If you have a passion or interest there are others around the world who have it too and STUMBLE! is a great way to learn, share and discover more about the things you love.
So, why not get started today. There's no better time to start STUMBLING! -
Pork Tenderloin w/ Mushroom Sauce
» DT from da FP
Recipe: (All ingredients available at Costco)
1 pork tenderloin
1 1/2 cups Mr. Yoshida's Original Gourmet Sauce (marinade and grilling sauce)
Mushroom Sauce:
2 Tbsp. butter
1 tsp. toasted sesame oil (or veggie oil)
1 garlic clove, minced
3/4 cup sliced fresh mushrooms
1/4 cup white wine
2 Tbsp. Mr. Yoshida's Original Gourmet Sauce
Marinate pork in gourmet sauce in the refigerator for 6 hours or overnight
Preheat 375F
Place pork on baking sheet (discard marinade)
Set on the center rack and cook for 25 - 35 minutes, if cut into cutlets, or 1.5 hours or until the internal temp. is 160F if cooking as a roast.
Remove pork from oven and let stand.
To prepare the sauce, melt butter and oil in hot skillet over medium heat. Add garlic and mushrooms and saute until tender. Pour in wine and cook for 1 minute. (I used champagne and it was stellar!!)
Add gourmet sauce and cook for another 2-3 minutes
To serve, place the pork on a platter and pour the sauce over and around it.
Makes 6 servings. -
Oatmeal Choc. Chip. Yogurt Muffins
» DT from da FP
Recipe:
1 cup flour
1 cup old-fashioned rolled oats
1/2 cup firmly packed brown sugar
1 1/2 tsp. baking powder
1/2 tsp. salt
1/4 tsp. cinnamon
1/2 cup raisins, craisins or choc. chips
1 cup Dannon Light & Fit Yogurt (vanilla or strawberry)
1 large egg
2 Tbsp. veggie oil
Preheat oven to 375
Lightly grease 1/2 cup muffin tins or use paper liners (or silicone cups)
In bowl mix flour, oats, brown sugar, baking powder, salt, cinnamon and raisins / choc. chips
In another bowl whisk together yogurt, egg and oil
Combine mixtures and stir until batter is just combined
Divide batter among 10 muffin cavities and bake on middle rack for 22-25 minutes.
Yield: 10 - 12 servings -
Tilt - Living in a Pinball World
» DT from da FP
When I was a kid I remember listening to the grown ups around the table talk about the world. They'd talk about current events, presidents, taxes, jobs, housing prices, personal struggles, life. The general theme always seemed to be things will even out, things will get better, things will improve.
Now I am an adult. Still I count on those same voices to be the voice of reason in a crazy world saying, "Things will even out, get better, improve." The problem is that those voices are not saying those things anymore. And it feels strange.
Now I hear, "We've never seen it like this before." "We don't know what's going to happen, so we're taking a cautious approach." Huh? But you're my parents.
Life kinda feels like an old pinball machine. You know the one at the roller rink or the pizza place? You just try to keep the ball rolling. Bouncing off one bumper then another, landing in a target and getting shot out again. You just keep slappin' those flippers, faster and faster.
Then you hit the machine just a little too hard, it moves and suddenly you see the backbox light up and the Tilt light flashing like cops after their favorite donuts. Doh! You lose your turn, your ball disappears. There goes your job. Your house. Your health.
Once in a while the machine gets hit so hard, like when you saw your older brother's friend get crazed on the Dukes of Hazzard machine and knee the front of the machine that it's a Slam Tilt. Game over, you are outta here!
I have been studying the book of Revelation all year so I don't think we've Slam Tilted yet, but it sure feels like a whole lotta people are seeing that Tilt light flashing. And it's like you're mom's totally outta quarters. She's talking to her friends waiting for the pizza to arrive and says, "I don't have any more quarters for you to play that machine!" Then she says, "I don't have any money at all. And I don't know when I'm going to have any."
What? My mom's outta money? Moms always have money. The government supposed to take care of me. The state will always pay me if they owe me money on my taxes. A house is a good investment. You get my point.
My issue is that everything and everyone is tilted (whether you are willing to admit it or not). It's disconcerting that even the "grown ups" are scared.
Well, you're a grown up now too, so quit your belly aching, grab an adult beverage (because you can), pull the plunger and start slappin' the flippers. Your pizza will be out in a minute.
Here's to having another ball to play. Cheers!
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April 2010 Arts On! publication online and on the streets of Bend Oregon
» High Desert Gallery of Central OregonThe April 2010 Arts On! publication is online and at the news stands of The Source Weekly. Inside you will find Bend Oregon First Friday Gallery Walk, special artist reception and monthly exhibition information. The guide is published by The Source Weekly and sponsored by The Old Mill District, NorthWest Crossing Group and Downtown Bend. Your resource for everything First Friday Gallery Walk!
To view the publication online visit: April 2010 Arts On!
The monthly issue will showcase the Bend Gallery Association's First Friday Art Walk, a popular event that offers the best in local, regional, and nationally known artists, as well as live music and wine tasting. Member Galleries open their doors and stay late to host this popular art event that premiers the newest in contemporary regional art, popular local musicians, and the best in wine and food. Park your car and walk from venue to venue around Bend's vibrant arts scene, or take the Green Bus. A convenient map of the galleries and the Green Bus route will be included in each Arts On! issue.
The Bend Gallery Association is a non-profit association of visual art galleries in Bend, Oregon. Each gallery is independently owned and operated, and each has its own artistic specialty. Styles exhibited range from kinetic, modern, post-modern, contemporary and classic, and feature glass, bronze, original fine art, limited edition fine art prints, sculpture, jewelry, pottery, fiber art and more. Member galleries include BICA, High Desert Gallery, Karen Bandy Design Jeweler, Lubbesmeyer Studio & Gallery, Mockingbird Gallery, River Bend Fine Art, Sage Custom Gallery & Framing, Tumalo Art Co. and Wild River Gallery.Bend Oregon First Friday Gallery Walk -- This month -- Friday, April 2, 2010 5-9pm. A Hoot For Sure!
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My Journey to Losing my House - Chapter 2
» DT from da FP
Our house is now on the market. We didn't get any interest with our first price so we dropped it and have had showings almost every day. This is good news and bad news. It is good news because our goal is to get an offer to start the ball rolling on the short sale. It is bad because I have two little munchkins who do not understand why they cannot have all their toys out any more. There's nothing like trying to keep your house ultra-clean with two small people who are still learning about putting things away.
Now I understand that someone is going to get a smokin' deal on a house so I shouldn't be too worried about how it looks, as opposed to if I was trying to get top dollar for it. However, as a woman I remember house hunting and being completely turned off by some of the homes we looked at due to the clutter and the lack of upkeep. I don't want someone to come into my house and think we don't take care of our stuff.
It is amazing to think that I am worried about the opinions of people I will never meet. I might have to work on that.
The who and when are out of my control. It is now a waiting game. And my eyes begin to look ahead to what comes next. My thoughts jump forward to the horizon as I search for a sign as to where we will go, what we will do and how we will get there. I wonder if Abraham felt like this? I know change is coming. I just have no vision for it.
Then I went to Redux today and there was a question: "What is faith?"
The simple answer given was TRUST. Trust not in what we can see or know, but in a God who can and does. This is not new information to me, but it was pertinent today because it is exceedingly difficult to see very far out right now. I do not know what is going to happen, where we will end up, what the next few months hold for us.
But ultimately, I have faith. I believe God. And when I start to look towards the horizon I am okay with all the uncertainty. I really am. I have peace and assurance because being totally sold out to Christ is being totally dependent on Him and His plan for my life. This is a great place to be. I do not have to worry or stress out. I can leave it in His hands and raise my kids and love my husband and care for my friends while He, the God of the universe, takes care of each and every detail of my life. EVERY one.
So, I'll keep walking by faith. I do not need to walk by sight. Instead, I can keep my sights on those I love and those I am called to serve. I do not need to worry about tomorrow. I will not try to wrestle control away from Him, especially not now.
For this is not my permanent home. It is just a place where I am honing my skills for eternity. Building character, practicing integrity, expressing love. This is where I become the person that God created me to be. This is where I get to BE a true Christ follower. So, bring it on, the uncertainty, the unlit pathway, the unknown. "As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord." (Jos. 24:15) And if I do it well, then someday it may be attributed to me as righteousness, that I believed God. (Gen. 15:6, Gal. 3:6)
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900 Wall Happy Hour
» Bend Oregon Restaurant900 Wall I've written about 900 Wall before but this time I want to focus on their Happy Hour menu. Bend has some decent happy hours and when you find a great one, you want to hold on to it for dear life. At least for me it's like that. I love a good happy hour since I like to save money and when you go out to eat as often as I do, every little bit helps.When you go to 900 Wall, ask for Ron or
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My Journey to Losing My House - Chapter 1
» DT from da FP
I have been debating for a while now as to whether or not I should write about this. I usually make a list of pros and cons when I am debating something and here is what I have come up with:
Pros:
You or someone you know is in the same boat.
You or someone you know can use the info.
You or someone you know can use a friend. You are NOT alone.
Cons:
You now know my financial situation. (I could care less.)
You may judge me. (That's your problem, not mine.)
You have preconceived ideas about the current state of the world. (Read on, get informed.)
Disclaimer:
I will interchangeably use we and I because my husband and I are in this together but since I can only speak for myself the feelings I have about the situation are mine alone.
So the short version is - We are losing our house. Now I deliberately say house and not home because while we like this place a lot it does not define us and it will not change anything about us as people not to live here any more. Our home is wherever we are together as a family.
Background:
We purchased our house 5 years ago. Just before I found out I was pregnant with my first child. We talked to our parents and grandparents and we did what they told us to do - buy a little house, start a family, sell it and move up to something a little bigger. Do not get greedy right out of the gate. Buy within your means.
So that is what we did. We were offered a boat load of money for just about any house we wanted. We did not take that boat. Let's just say we took a little skiff - something we could afford and manage. The problem was we did this in Bend, OR. The wackiest place on earth to buy and sell real estate. We by no means bought our home during the height of the market. We bought in an upswing, but not at the peak.
I found a great quote from 2002 from Realtor Reuben Garmyn:
"Central Oregon's red-hot real estate market seems a great investment. While the rate of return may not be as fast or furious as playing the NASDAQ, new homebuyers probably won't crash and burn. New homeowners in Bend are finding their real estate investment firmly in place; new home appreciation in the Bend area appears to be rising at an extraordinary rate."
I think that is what every home buyer and Realtor and mortgage person and business owner and family member thought. Well, it didn't turn out that way. We all know it was a combination of events and factors.
Five years later here we are.
So jump forward to today. After much prayer and discussion, information hunting and visiting with the experts we have decided to let our house go. We have decided to try for a short sale. It is the best decision for our family and the only one that makes sense given our circumstances. It is sad and it is not ideal. But it is wise and our way of making the best of a not so ideal situation.
So, here are the pros and cons for our situation:
Pros:
We have great credit.
We have no debt (other than the mortgage) (Thanks Dave Ramsey!!)
We are healthy.
We have each other.
Our marriage / family is strong.
Cons:
Our credit will take a hit.
We are going against everything we have been taught about responsibility.
We will be at the mercy of the rental market.
So there it is. If I meet you on the street or in a store and you want to know what is going on in my life. There you have it.
It is an ongoing process. It involves plenty of emotion and decision making. I will continue to blog about all this and more.
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15:08
The Art of Blending Styles
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesI love the simple cleanliness of contemporary homes. No clutter - just sweeping elegant lines, white-washed walls, and lots of beautiful, naturally soft light. They are a blank canvas for the home owner to create a universe of art, color and style. A few weeks ago, I was hired to shoot just such a home. Built by the talented Bend custom home builder, Hansmann & Sons Construction, and styled by
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March Music Madness
» Volcano Vineyards BlogGet your groove on during March in the Tasting Lounge!
Friday, March 5 starting at 6 pm: First Friday with Mike Potter, plus a local celebrity behind the bar
Saturday, March 6 starting at 8 pm: Mark Barringer plays, and he usually brings along a bunch of his amazingly talented musician friends. Musical magic, you absoutely have to see this guy play!
Friday, March 12 starting at 7:30: The Prairie Rockets! They are three women, Aspen, Shirley and Patty. Shirley plays guitar, Aspen mandolin and Patty the 5-String Banjo. "We play a bluegrassy and sometimes bluesy mix of contemporary and traditional folk songs embracing two and three part harmonies. We just have fun playing music together."
Friday, March 19 starting at 8 pm: Brian Hinderberger of Kousefly. Always a blast when Brian plays!
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Takin' Back My Soapbox
» DT from da FPI started doing book reviews on this blog last spring. That worked pretty well at first, but little did I know they would dominate my posts. So, I decided to take back my favorite forum for sharing my deep thoughts. I have a lot of them and most of them are not worth sharing, but there is that occasional thought that actually means something. One that someone else might actually want to read about.
So I decided to take back my soapbox and move my book reviews to their own designated site. (SL3books.blogspot.com)
I look forward to verbalizing my deep thoughts once again. Hopefully, I will have something good to say. -
BOOK REVIEWS have MOVED.......
» DT from da FP
Book reviews seem to be taking up a lot of space on this blog so to accommodate them I have set up a new blog just for books. Please take a moment to visit the new site at: SL3 Book Reviews and become a follower if you are interested in books and getting the latest updates on good reads.
See you over there................
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Trattoria Sbandati
» Bend Oregon RestaurantTrattoria SbandatiOur first trip to Trattoria Sbandati was absolutely fabulous. We've gone for lunch twice and for dinner three more times since then. I feel fortunate in my life that I've been able to go this many times. Lucky for me, a couple of those dinners were paid for by our guests. The best way to dine out is on someone else's dime!I love that we have Trattoria Sbandati in Bend - a great
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Blog Tour: Angels by Dr. David Jeremiah (Give away!!)
» DT from da FP
Angelmania. It has swept the nation in the last decade or so. From the new-age movement to modern Christianity, people have adopted all that is beautiful and mystical and comforting about angels. What constitutes this mania is not always right or good. And very little of it is Biblical.
Setting aside the myth and misconceptions Dr. David Jeremiah has written a very telling book called "Angels". This book is not only based on biblical truth it is filled with true stories of angels and who they really are and how they have helped men and women throughout history. The truth about angels is much more interesting than anything men can dream up. When you read this book you will feel the weight of their importance in God's plan.
This book is a must read for anyone who is interested in angels. It is well written, easy to understand and it will tell you not only what angels are but when they appear, how they are different from us, how they can teach us and what we can learn from them.
I highly recommend this book. By reading it you will understand the truth about these heavenly beings. It will help you to speak truth into the lives of others, especially those who have become enamored by angels, and it will help you to understand the power of God and the agents He uses for His purposes.
Summary:
What are angels? What is their role in God’s plan? Are they present? Do they appear? Do they give us personal insight about our work, our worship?
Many contemporary beliefs about angels are based on misconception and myth. Dr. David Jeremiah uses scripture to unveil the remarkable truth about these agents of heaven, and their role and work in our world—and lives.
More than 60,000 units of this powerful book have sold in two past editions. This repackage of the original 1996 paperback will surely capture the attention of readers of all ages who seek a broad and thorough survey of scripture that clearly separates fact from fiction as it relates to angels. The book will appeal to the thousands who follow Dr. Jeremiah’s books, and radio and TV broadcasts.
Relevant, little known biblical facts help readers sharpen their knowledge and sensitivities toward the spiritual reality of angels. Dr. Jeremiah’s enlightening findings are supported with illustrations and insights from Billy Graham, Corrie ten Boom, C.S. Lewis, and more.
What others are saying about this book:
“Outstanding! As one would expect from David Jeremiah, this book reflects a theologian’s concern, a pastor’s heart, and a Biblicist’s accuracy.”
—Dr. Bruce Wilkinson, New York Times bestselling author
“David has that uncanny ability to be deliberate without being dull. His words will deepen your gratitude for God’s messengers in light of God’s Word.”
—Max Lucado, pastor and bestselling author
“Dr. David Jeremiah shifts the focus from contemporary ‘angel hype’ to the fascinating biblical truth about God’s powerful messengers.”
—Dr. John C. Maxwell, founder of INJOY, Inc.
Author Bio:
Dr. David Jeremiah is senior pastor of Shadow Mountain Community Church in San Diego, and founder of Turning Point Radio and TV Ministries. His radio program is carried on over 2,500 stations worldwide, while the TV broadcast is received by 500 million homes via cable and satellite. The recipient of numerous awards for broadcast excellence, his books have garnered Gold Medallion awards and become bestsellers with The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and the New York Times. He is a sought-after conference speaker by organizations nationwide.
One lucky reader will win a copy of this book. Just leave a comment on this blog post to be considered. The winner will be chosen at random on Saturday, February 13. Happy Commenting!!
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Group Pizza Orders Suck
» Bend Oregon RestaurantOrdering Pizza as a group like in an office environment or at a gathering of some sort has got to be one of the worst ideas ever. It used to be that you'd have your mom call up Domino's and order up a bunch of pepperoni pizzas. Then you and your buddies would scarf it down and get back to watching Real Genius and pretend that you too could be a cool nerd like Val instead of just a nerd.Now your
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The MALE Factor - Blog Tour
» DT from da FP
The latest book reviewed by The Funki Planet is "The MALE Factor" by Shaunti Feldhahn. I asked a trusted woman in business to review this book on my behalf and this is her response.
Just a few thoughts on The Male Factor by Feldhahn. I have been involved in leadership training for many years with a particular interest in teaching husbands and wives to get along in a family business. This book has been very enlightening. I will certainly be recommending it to my clients for use in workshops and personal learning.
In particular it was a unique study in that she took the time to interview so many men in a variety of business situations. I believe the men were much more open to share there because they feel it is “their world” than they would be one on one or in a marriage relationship. Yet so many things she found out apply outside of business.
One area was on the use of emotion. Women use it sometimes on purpose and sometimes it
just wells up. Feldhahn said in her studies men hate that. Not because they are cruel and unfeeling but they don’t know what to do with it and certainly don’t feel it is appropriate in the marketplace. Wow, if women just grasped that fact alone how many disappointments could they avoid in their relationship with their husband or other men in their life.
I highly recommend it to women just to understand how men think whether they work in a business with them or not.
Beverly Sallee
President
Premiere Training Concepts, LLC
About the Book:
Millions of women gained eye-opening insights about the inner lives of men through Shaunti Feldhahn’s best-selling book For Women Only. Now with The Male Factor, Feldhahn brings her innovative research approach to the workplace to help women understand their male colleagues. Based on a nationwide survey and confidential interviews with thousands of men whose anonymity was guaranteed, her book reveals the private thoughts and attitudes that men rarely disclose but every woman needs to know.
Never before has an author gotten inside the hearts and minds of men in the workplace—from CEOs to nonprofit managers, from lawyers to factory workers—to discover what they commonly think about women on the job, what their expected “rules” of the workplace are, what “managing emotion” means, and what factors improve or harm a man’s respect for a female co-worker.
Among the little-known but critical insights The Male Factor reveals are:
o how men, with rare exception, view almost any emotional display as a sign that the person can no longer think clearly (as well as what men perceive as emotion in the first place)
o why certain types of trendy attire may actually sabotage a woman’s career
o which little-known signals ensure that a man’s perception of a strong female colleague is positive (“assertive and competent”) instead of negative (“difficult”)
Even women who have navigated male-dominated work environments for years have expressed surprise at these and other revelations in the book. Some readers may find them challenging. Yet The Male Factor delivers a one-of-a-kind opportunity for women to understand how male bosses, colleagues, subordinates, and customers privately think, and why they react the way they do. These vital insights enable each woman to make informed decisions in her unique workplace situation.
In this expanded Christian edition, Feldhahn builds on the same research and information as in the general-market edition, but speaks directly to the interests and questions of women of faith, whether their workplace is a part-time ministry or a Fortune 500 corporation. This edition of The Male Factor also delivers invaluable advice from senior Christian women who have broad experience in dealing with these questions, understand and share the reader’s values, and want to help other women achieve the best possible work relationships.
About the Author:
SHAUNTI FELDHAHN is the best-selling author of For Women Only:What You Need to Know About the Inner Lives of Men and For Men Only: A Straightforward Guide to the Inner Lives of Women. Her books have sold two million copies and have been translated into fifteen different languages. A longtime nationally sydicated columnist, she holds a master's degree in public policy from Harvard University, has worked on Wall Street, and now lives in Atlanta, Georgia.
www.MaleFactorChristian.com
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January Madness
» Volcano Vineyards BlogScott is pulling the 2008 Viognier out of barrel today down at the winery, and while he says he'll be done and back on the road by noon, I know him well enough to know that noon actually means 3 or 4 pm. Meanwhile, I am trying to get coverage for the Tasting Lounge so we can open by 4 pm today, but, no guarantee. I wonder what happened to all my wine club members who told me they were getting their OLCC server's permit? Hurry up, guys! We need some help!
Since it costs a gagillion dollars to bottle the wine, for the time being we are putting the Viognier into kegs and will offer it as a glass pour out of the Tasting Lounge. A cost effective way to enjoy some stellar wine. Stay tuned for more info on the Volcano keg program...
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A HAPPY New Year - The One Day Way
» DT from da FP
It is a new year that means resolutions. It has been said that 40 - 45% of people make new year's resolutions. The top contenders are losing weight, exercising and stopping smoking. So I wasn't so surprised to get a book from WaterBrook Multnomah Press to review that had to do with weight loss.
I used to be a group fitness trainer and I have seen my share of diet books, diet websites and diet promises. The thing is, we are all looking for that secret ingredient, secret gadget or secret pill that will do the work for us. Let me tell you what you already know. There is no secret.
As adults we know the answers to our weight loss issues. Eat less. Move more. As you sit down to eat a pint of Ben & Jerry's you know that you should not eat the whole thing in one sitting. No one needs to remind you of that fact. As you go to make a snack decision at 3 o'clock in the afternoon no one needs to remind you to eat an orange or some almonds instead of a mocha frappuccino. It is not rocket science. You have read all the magazine articles that I have read and between us all we have probably tried every diet on the planet.
So knowing this what makes this book different?
"The One Day Way" by Chantel Hobbs is not a diet. It has a few diet tidbits and one chapter on strength training, but over all it is not a traditional diet book. It is however a book about mentally preparing to reach your weight loss goals.
I highly recommend this book to anyone who has tried to diet and failed, to anyone who is dreading "dieting" again in 2010 and to anyone who is not motivated by strict rules, discouraged by unrealistic expectations and has no desire to fail again.
Chantel Hobbs is an effective advocate for losing weight. She used to weigh 350 lbs. She knows what she's talking about and she has personal experience. Her writing is clear and concise and encouraging without being patronizing.
The idea of just taking your goals 24-hours at a time, one day at a time is liberating. You don't have to think about what will happen next week or next month, just what is going to happen today. It is an amazing way to move forward and gain momentum. Weight loss is a monster for the majority of people. But it isn't just what you eat, it is also your attitude and your mental fortitude. I have not read a book that is better at really addressing those issues than this one. I encourage you to go get it today.
The One Day Way @ Random House
Author Chantel Hobbs breaks the chains of past diet debacles and frees readers from unrealistic goals. She teaches daily fitness tasks that develop into lasting habits. By focusing energy and attention on doing the right things every day, she frees readers to achieve their weight-loss goals one day at a time.
I’ve got great news for you: You are about to feel better and look better beginning today! Today is truly a new opportunity for you to reach your weight loss goals. No, you won’t fit into your “skinny jeans” today, but I’m going to show you how each day will get you closer to that goal.
Yesterday’s mistakes are gone so let them go. You can’t control tomorrow, so stop worrying about it. Today is your opportunity to lose weight, get strong, and look great. It won’t happen overnight, but you can build a new life by changing your actions immediately and I’m here to show you how to make the changes that will create the new lifestyle you dream of: body, mind, and spirit. Best of all, you will start celebrating right away!
Come on, my friend. Let’s get started! By opening this book, I’ll show you how to unlock every tool you need to lose weight and get fit —and stay that way for the rest of your life. Success can be yours, what are you waiting for?
-Chantel
Summary
The One-Day Way produces lasting results by taking you back to basics. No more complicated weight-loss strategies. No more expensive diet plans that achieve only temporary results. Instead, you will lose weight and get fit with Chantel Hobbs’s simple, high-energy meal plans and her at-home program for cardio exercise and strength training. She will teach you how to change the way you think, which leads to new actions. Before you know it you will be strong, fit, and healthy. All it takes is doing things differently for twenty-four hours—and then repeating it.
The One-Day Way gives you everything you need to lose weight and get fit in body, mind, and spirit:
Break free from past dieting defeats
Learn a realistic, life-changing way to measure success
Change the way you think so you can change your life
Translate your dreams into goals, and your goals into lasting achievements
Get strong with thirty-one simple exercises, no fancy equipment required
Take advantage of ten ways to eat better while you lose weight
By focusing on food, faith, and fitness, Chantel shows you not only how to lose weight, but how to build the new life you were designed to live. You don’t have to wait any longer. The One-Day Way gives you all the tools for success, starting right now.
Author Bio:
The author of Never Say Diet and The Never Say Diet Personal Fitness Trainer, Chantel Hobbs is a motivational speaker, life coach, personal trainer, marathon runner, wife, and mother of four whose story has been featured on Oprah, The Today Show, Good Morning America, Fox & Friends, the 700 Club, and the covers of People and First magazines. She appears weekly on two fitness-themed radio programs and promotes her One-Day Way Learning System on television. Visit Chantel at ChantelHobbs.com for fitness updates and coaching tips.
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Photography from Mike Putnam in the Tasting Lounge through February
» Volcano Vineyards BlogThis January and February, the Volcano Vineyards Tasting Lounge will feature new photography from Mike Putnam. Mike was inspired to take up landscape photography by the beauty of central Oregon and its surrounding backcountry. Mike hopes that these photographs will serve to enhance awareness of these awe inspiring locations and will foster a sense of stewardship in regard to these magical locations. From glacier clad volcanoes, to alpine wildflower meadows, cascading waterfalls, and powder covered mountain ranges, Central Oregon is an awe-inspiring place.
Mike strives to make the most detailed and color saturated images possible with a 4x5 camera. He does this by using professional grade slow speed film, excellent lenses and a carbon fiber tripod. Additionally, he carefully selects his subject matter, preferring scenic locations at the appropriate time of year and at times of day that allow for optimal light conditions.
Mike often wakes hours before dawn and hikes many hours in the dark in order to position himself for optimal light. Therefore, low weight and optimal optical performance were the deciding factors when selecting any given piece of gear.
He initially shot in a 35mm format. He soon found he had a real passion for photography and specifically large scenic prints. 35mm photography quickly became too limiting in terms of its lack of detail and perspective control, so he made a leap of faith and purchased a Wista cherry wood 4x5 field camera. This camera was selected for its light weight, its range of movements, simplicity and perhaps most of all for its character. As a woodworker, Mike enjoys the artisan feel of hand crafted Cherry wood. It gives the sensation of creating art with a camera that is art itself.
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2009 Book List
» DT from da FP
What a year for books. I read some really good ones and some, well, not so good ones. I've compiled my picks for 2009 at Salt&Light3.com. Check it out and find your next read!
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How to Enjoy the Tasting Lounge
» Volcano Vineyards BlogI heard a gal on the street the other day sniff and say that we were “just a tasting room” – not quite sure what she meant by that, but I am sure that she has probably never been inside our place. And clearly, we are doing a poor job communicating who we are and what we do. So, here are some suggestions on how to take advantage of what we work so hard to offer.
Try Some Wine Made by Bendites!
Volcano Vineyards is an Oregon winery. That’s right – we make our own wine. In our Tasting Lounge, we serve our wines by the taste, flight, glass or bottle. A taste is about 1.5 ounces. A flight is a taste of each of our wines. We also sell our wines “to go” by the bottle or case.
We are not a multi-national company, we are not retired millionaires. We are two former waiters who moved to Bend in 2001. We make a mere 1000 cases of wine per year. “Small” wineries make 50,000. Gallo spills more wine in a week than we make in a year (yes, I am kidding, but you get the idea)
Try Our Bend-Produced Magmita Sangria
Don’t like red wine? We produce our own line of Magmita Sangrias (Magmita being a play on “magma”). Flavors are seasonal, such as peach, kiwi-melon-pineapple, and orange-mango, and Scott is working on some winter flavors right now, playing with cranberry, pomegranate, cherry, ginger and apple.
Prove to Your California Friends that Oregon Wines Rock!
Our Volcano Vineyards wines compete head to head with wines from California, as well as the rest of the world. And we consistently end up with Gold and Double Gold Medals. That means entire judging panels all think our wines are exceptional. We are pre-qualified for you to show-off!
Coif a Pint of Local Beer
We have a kegerator and offer beers made right here in Bend, like Silver Moon’s delectable Amber. Cold, refreshing and delicious. While we do make wine, we are big beer fans. As the saying goes, it takes a lot of beer to make a little wine.
Enjoy a Glass of White Wine or Bubbly
In the mood for something lighter or festive? We always have chilled white wines and sparkling wines available by the taste, glass or bottle. And remember – no restaurant mark-up here. You can enjoy your bottle right here in our cozy space for retail prices!
Have a Less Expensive, Super-Premium-Quality Glass of Wine Before Going Out to Dinner
If you ordered a glass of our wine in a restaurant, you would pay at least 50% more, if not 100% more than we charge here in the Tasting Lounge. No evil conspiracy going on, it is simply how restaurants have to structure their pricing. We have a much lower overhead in our Tasting Lounge space, and as the producer, don’t have a middle-man we are dealing with. So, in our Tasting Lounge, your dollars can support a high quality, artisan produced Oregon wine, and you enjoy the fruits of our labors (Sorry about the pun. Couldn’t resist.)
Quiet Girls Night Out
Meeting up with the girls? You need a least an hour to catch up on the latest news, right? Why not spend it in our intimate upstairs space? Save the hustle and bustle of a loud restaurant or rockin’ club for later in the evening.
Date Night!
The OLCC said we can no longer allow kiddos in the Tasting Lounge, so you are guaranteed a wine-filled, yet whiney-free evening (unless Scott had too much coffee, in which case I would say grab that bottle and head upstairs). And again, you can split a bottle, have a beer, sangria or glasses of your favorite Volcano wines.
Book Clubs, Meetings, Networking Groups, Wine Clubs, Showers, Poker Night, Small Parties
Your small group can reserve the upstairs space Sunday through Thursday evenings for your exclusive use. No room charge, no minimum, no service fee. All you have to do is call to ensure availability. 541-617-1102.
Larger Private Parties
Want the whole place to yourself? We have a very economical private party package set up. Call us for more info: 541-617-1102 or email: info@VolcanoVineyards.com
Hear Some Live Music with No Cover Charge
Several times each month we feature live music from some of Bend’s finest musicians. The Tasting Lounge space has amazing acoustics, and the cozy, intimate spot is incredibly relaxing.
All this, and in a few weeks, we’ll have cheap eats as well!
Just a few more things to finish on the ol’ bureaucratic check list and we’ll have small plates available (everything priced $5 and less). Onion tarts, brie and ham sandwiches on fresh baguettes, homemade soups, artisan cheeses. Deliciousness!
Should We Get a TV?
Scott and I have been tossing around the idea of getting a smallish flat screen in the Tasting Lounge. We would only have it on for big stuff, like tonight’s Oregon-Oregon State game (and I don’t care who wins, as long as they can beat Ohio State in the Rose Bowl!). But it has been difficult for Scott to work Saturdays this fall with my calling him from home screaming about some play Penn State just made. What do you think?
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13:53
Giving Thanks with Food
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesTraditionally, the Thanksgiving feast is an opportunity to give thanks for the bounty of food, bestowed by a successful summer and fall harvest. Given however that most people don't hunt or grow their own food these days, it just becomes a beautiful ceremony - a chance to gather around the table with family, friends and loved ones, and share some good chow. If you're lucky like me though, and
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White Picket Fences - Blog Tour
» DT from da FP
Last Friday I was preparing to post this review. I planned on posting it after I drove across the mountains to visit my sister in law for her birthday. We never made it to our destination however. Our car flipped over in a snow storm and we, my kids and I, were left hanging from our seat belts up-side-down. After a while another car came along and then another and the kindness of strangers was a blessing to use that day. Needless to say I never got my review posted.
However, today is another day and in our house we are planning for a family wedding. Which got me to thinking about the book White Picket Fences by Susan Meissner. I highly recommend this book. It is a touching story and deeply moving. It encompasses several generations, different life phases, family dynamics and it all works.
Meissner does a great job of intertwining the stories of all the characters involved. I was particularly pleased with the meatiness of this book. The subject matter was difficult and could have come across as trite or vapid, but to the contrary it is deep and meaningful.
Family is an important part of our lives. Deep meaningful relationships are to be cherished and appreciated. After seeing what could have happened to my own family last week I think it is important to foster good relationships, ask difficult questions and love with open hearts.
Be sure to add this book to your list of must-reads.
ABOUT THIS BOOK When her black sheep brother disappears, Amanda Janvier eagerly takes in her sixteen year-old niece Tally. The girl is practically an orphan: motherless, and living with a father who raises Tally wherever he lands– in a Buick, a pizza joint, a horse farm–and regularly takes off on wild schemes. Amanda envisions that she, her husband Neil, and their two teenagers can offer the girl stability and a shot at a “normal” life, even though their own storybook lives are about to crumble.
Seventeen-year-old Chase Janvier hasn’t seen his cousin in years, and other than a vague curiosity about her strange life, he doesn’t expect her arrival will affect him much–or interfere with his growing, disturbing interest in a long-ago house fire that plagues his dreams unbeknownst to anyone else.
Tally and Chase bond as they interview two Holocaust survivors for a sociology project, and become startlingly aware that the whole family is grappling with hidden secrets, with the echoes of the past, and with the realization that ignoring tragic situations won’t make them go away.
Will Tally’s presence blow apart their carefully-constructed world, knocking down the illusion of the white picket fence and reveal a hidden past that could destroy them all–or can she help them find the truth without losing each other?
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12:34
YES!!! The first Vasudeva promo clip!
» Life by NateHere it is folks… hope you like it. Granted it is not a whole set, but the segments will give you a good idea as to what we are all about… minus the people practicing yoga! Enjoy… and be sure to join us every second Friday of every month at myc yoga | downtown bend [...]
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12:14 Cyclocross Nationals 2009
» WebCyclery BlogThe 2009 Cyclocross Nationals are happening right here in Bend, Oregon. The course is in the same location that we used for the Thrilla CX series a few years ago. The course is about 1 km away from our front door. It is coming up in just a few weeks, and we are trying to get ready for it as best we can. We will be hosting a little Q&A/discussion with the Clif Bar Junior development team coaches on that Thursday evening. This will be a good one for juniors and their families. It will give them an idea of what is available for juniors and what it takes to get to the national level.
We are also hosting a movie night during the Cyclocross Nationals on that Saturday night. Instead of our usual Mcmenamins movie, we will be hosting it at the Tower Theatre. Giro is sponsoring the event, along with sportsvisionbend.com. It should be pretty fun. The movie will be "The Cyclocross Meeting" featuring Oregon's Barry Wicks. Of course, we will have a bunch of Giro sponsored racers in the crowd - just in case you want to get an autograph.
WebCyclery has plenty of parking and a bike wash area (well, a hose) for racers, as well as an indoor changing room and bathroom, so racers can feel free to park in our lot during the races. It might be a lot easier than finding a spot in the small lot at the course, and we are just across the river and up a block from the course.
If racers want to ship their bikes to us, just give us a call and let us know when to expect it. We build up boxed bikes for $40. We box them for $60. Since we do a lot of mail order business, we are used to boxing bikes everyday. You can rest assured that we box bikes very well. We don't want them to get destroyed in shipping almost as much as you.
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Visit Bend Oregon -- Fresh Air and Powder Day
» High Desert Gallery of Central OregonBend Oregon for the Holiday Season? Great shopping, fine art galleries and wonderful restaurants. All steps away from downtown Bend, the Old Mill, Oxford Hotel, High Desert Gallery, Mockingbird Gallery, Zydeco Restaurant and much much more! Explore all the amenities of Bend, Oregon then go find some Fresh Air and Powder Days.
Watch VisitBend.com Video: The Official Bend Oregon Video by VisitBend.com
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15:36
Ringflash goodies
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesSo I got myself a ring flash not too long ago, and finally got the chance to try it out on a client shoot. Here are the yummy results! I love how it glosses and tones the skin. I tried a couple of different backgrounds, and found a flat black painted, smooth wall in the gym to be ideal. Try this at home!
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Deep Thoughts
» DT from da FPI took a long walk today. I walked to the market for some groceries and on my way home I had some deep thoughts. One was that you can really tell the age of an home's occupant by the landscape.
Imagination over money:
Rentals not withstanding, a home that has a new deck or porch with modern lines usually means a young couple or family - they usually also have a small garden and pots with flowers. The yard might be nice or semi-nice. I mean hey, we don't have that much expendable income but we do the best we can.
Money over imagination:
Retired people usually have fancy landscape or something that was supposed to be fancy but looks rather odd. They have the income but not the imagination.
Memories over money and imagination:
I waved to a lovely old lady sitting staring out her front window down on 6th street. She waved her hankie right back at me. Elderly people who have lived in their homes for years and years have mature trees and their yards usually look like they did 20, 30 even 40 years ago. I supposed they like to look out and see the place where their children and grandchildren ran and played and grew up - to change that would taint the memory somehow.
Now, there are exceptions to every rule and I am no expert, so I really don't know what I'm talking about, but I did a very unscientific test on my way home and that's how I'm calling it like I saw it.
Of course you could be like the people who live on 8th street. They actually live in their giant motorcoach in their driveway. Their house is empty - no lights, no furniture, nothin'. But you can always see them sitting at the window of their house on wheels taking a drag and watching the traffic go by. Very interesting. -
What get's us going
» DT from da FPIt's funny to me what get's people talking. Sometimes I think a topic is really interesting so I'll write about it on my Facebook page and nobody bites. They I write something mundane and the place lights up like the Fourth of July. Hilarious!!
Today I mentioned that I love the library. All my friends came out of the woodwork expressing their adoration for free books, movies and information. I think I've been taking my library for granted and I resolve to do so no longer.
Since I recommend books I'd like to recommend one to you today that I am reading to my daughter. I think it is a bit above her head (she's only 4), but I love the story and think it should be in the libraries of all cities and towns. It would make a great Christmas present too.
The book is called "Who Owns the Sun" by Stacy Chbosky. Stacy was 14 when she wrote and illustrated this book back in 1989. She won an award for her work and I think her book is a classic. It's available at Amazon.com and if your library doesn't have it why don't you donate it. I think I might.
I don't want to give away the plot and story line, but I'm sure you will enjoy this book and it's a great freedom lesson for kids - of all ages.
If you can't find this book in your library don't hesitate to ask for an interlibrary loan. They can get you any book from somewhere else - my copy of this book came from the library in Bandon, OR. Totally random that they would have it but I'm glad they did.
Enjoy!
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16:21
Gorgeous!
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesThat's really the one word that comes to mind when seeing this absolutely stunning example of elegance and craftsmanship: Check out the rest of the images here.
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Wisdom Hunter / Shadow Government Blog Tour
» DT from da FP
Normal 0 0 1 457 2608 21 5 3202 11.1282 0 0 0Recently I was in Denver with my family visiting the aquarium. It was a great day but during the entire visit my hand was aching. I realized that my entry bracelet was too tight. There was nothing I could do until we left the aquarium and I could cut it off. I needed to let my arm be free of any hindrances again.
It got me to thinking about the book I just read Wisdom Hunter by Randall Arthur. It is the story of one man's journey from bondage in religion to freedom in Christ. I definitely recommend this book. It is a fast paced story that takes readers around the globe through all kinds of situations and trials, heartaches and joyful triumphs.
The crux of the story is sad and heart wrenching, but the journey is exciting and eye opening. It is also gives a clear picture of the idea of grace and forgiveness. I love travel so this story was one that kept my attention while weaving a great tale that packs a punch.
This is a re-release of a book that was published almost 20 years ago, but the story is timeless. Many people in the world today live in bondage, like I felt like with that tight bracelet around my wrist. But there is a freedom that comes only from Christ and this book explores that freedom and embraces it.Summary:
"Pastor Jason Faircloth knows what he believes. His clear faith, in fact, is why he is one of the most prominent pastors in Atlanta. He relies on it to discipline his daughter, his wife, his church. He prays daily that others would come to see God’s ways as he does.
And it is about to cost him everything.
Groping for answers in the face of tragedy, Jason begins a search for the only family he has left: the granddaughter kept hidden from him. Soon he finds himself on an international adventure that will take him straight into the depths of his soul. He is determined not to fail again.
A fast-paced suspense novel rich in spiritual depth, Wisdom Hunter explores what it means to break free of Christian legalism—and discover why grace can mean the difference between life and death.Author Bio:
Randall Arthur is the bestselling author of Jordan's Crossing and Brotherhood of Betrayal. He and his wife have served as missionaries to Europe for over thirty years. From 1976 till 1998, he lived in Norway and Germany as a church planter. Since 2000, he has taken numerous missions teams from the United States on trips all over Europe. Arthur is also the founder of the AOK (Acts of Kindness) Bikers’ Fellowship, a group of men who enjoy the sport of motorcycling. He and his family live in Atlanta, Georgia.Buy this book from Random House
Shadow Government is a very interesting book. I was very skeptical when I started this book because I didn’t want to read a conspiriacy theory book that was hyped up and would lead people into a mindset that was paranoid. After reading it I was impressed at the level of research and thought that was put into it.
My husband also read the book and thinks it is pretty right on in terms of what is going on in the government. It is an interesting take on how they are watching us, following what we buy, capable of seeing what money we carry around. An important concept to think about is that if our government can do it so can the bad guys. This is the most unsettling part of the whole story in my view.
I recommend reading this book if just to see what people who study these issues are finding out. Be in the know and then make your decision as to how much credence you will put into what they are saying.
ABOUT THIS BOOK
Security cameras, surveillance of your financial transactions, radio frequency spy chips hidden in consumer products, tracking of your Internet searches, and eavesdropping on your e-mail and phone calls. Without your knowledge or consent, every aspect of your life is observed and recorded. But who is watching the watchers?
An ultra-secret global elite, functioning as a very real shadow government, controls technology, finance, international law, world trade, political power, and vast military capabilities. Those who hold power are invisible to all but a few insiders. These unrivaled leaders answer to no earthly authority, and they won’t stop until they control the world.
In Shadow Government, Grant Jeffrey removes the screen that, up to now, has hidden the work of these diabolical agents. Jeffrey reveals the biblical description of Satan’s global conquest and identifies the tools of technology that the Antichrist will use to rule the world.
Your eyes will be opened to the real power that is working behind the scenes to destroy America and merge it into the coming global government. Armed with this knowledge, you will be equipped to face spiritual darkness with the light of prophetic truth.
You can purchase this book from Random House.
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Hope for Fall/Winter Music: Son Volt, The Gourds, Swollen Members, Dropkick Murphys, Eek-a-Mouse
» The BlenderWinter, traditionally, has been the time for Central Oregon music junkies to hunker down in the basement with a stack of beloved albums rather than hit the bars and clubs for live shows. This year, however is looking pretty promising, especially knowing a band like Son Volt is coming to Bend before the year is out.
With a fall featuring a strong lineup including Saturday’s Poor Man’s Whiskey show (where they’ll perform Dark Side of the Moonshine), and Wednesday night’s appearance by TRead More...
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SEX! SEX! SEX!
» DT from da FP
So, did I hook you with that title? I hope so because I've got some information that you need to have about sex. I just finished reading a new book by Barbara Wilson called "Kiss Me Again: Restoring Intimacy in Marriage."
WOW!
You've got to read this book. Never before have I read a book with more practical, honest and helpful information about sex than this one. I like information that I can use - straight out of the box - and this book fits the bill.
Barbara Wilson takes the statement we've all heard "Don't have sex before marriage" and explains it not only from a biblical standpoint but also a physiological one and an emotional one. She does a wonderful job explaining what happens inside the brain when men and women become sexually active before marriage and how that plays an important role in the marriage relationship later.
If you have a less than perfect past, have experienced abuse, or even went into marriage as a "virgin" this book is for you. The beauty of this book is that after explaining all these interesting and helpful things the author walks you through the healing process. She really takes you full circle. Now of course that will take effort on your part but I know it will be worth it.
Even if you have a perfect sex life this book is still helpful. It is also a must read for all moms of pre-teens and teens. (I'd even add college students into this mix.) Not everything is applicable to them but it can sure give you some practical talking points for talking to your daughters (& sons) about sex.
The point is that I HIGHLY recommend this book to everyone. God made us to enjoy sex. It's supposed to be pleasurable - even after marriage. To quote a little Top Gun for you Gen Xers - If you've "lost that lovin' feeling" read this book.
About This BookDo you ever wonder why marriage can seem like the end of intimacy and sexual desire instead of the beginning?
Ever wonder why it was so hard to resist sex before marriage–and so easy to resist it now? If so, you’re not alone! Many married women genuinely want to feel more desire toward their husbands…and can’t figure out what went wrong. But there’s good news. In Kiss Me Again, Barbara Wilson shows how powerful “invisible bonds” from past relationships can cause heartache, disappointment, and distance for couples in the present. Then–with sensitivity, honesty, and hope–Barbara walks you step by step toward healing…and a rekindling of the closeness and passion with your husband that you really want.
You don’t have to live any longer with confusion, disappointment, resentment, or shame. You can rediscover desire. You can say Wow! again.Barbara Wilson is the author of The Invisible Bond and former director of sexual health education for the Alternatives Pregnancy Resource Center in Sacramento. She speaks nationwide to youth and adults with her message of sexual healing, and she teaches frequently in the women’s ministry at the multi-campus Bayside Church in Northern California. Barbara and her husband, Eric, have been married for twenty-eight years.
This book is available in paperback and ebook format.
Order now at: Random House
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6:26
Lies, fraud and felonies in Bend Real Estate
» Bend Bubble 2OK, I saw just about the worst thing I've ever seen in my life the other day.
Was it:
2 al Quaeda terrorists shooting a baby deer in the head, cutting off the head, and then skull-f**king the head while screaming their crazy-ass Allah whailings?
No. It was worse.
Was it:
Me attending my dear grandmothers funeral, and during the viewing with the grieving grandpa, yanking out the old ladies crusty used tampon, seeping it in some hot water, and telling the old bastard, "Gramps, it tastes like this smelly old twat f**ked 100 guys... no... no, it was worse... 100 BLACK GUYS F**KED HER IN THE ASS, before she died of cum poisoning!"
Nope, it was much worse.
No, what I saw was so atrocious it turned my stomach.
This is what I saw:
A GOOD LOOKING WHITE WOMAN WORKING AS A WAITRESS IN A ALL-YOU-CAN-EAT CHINESE BUFFETT
NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
MY GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHDDDDDDDDDD!
PLEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZE! MY EYESSSSS!
OK. Sit down, relax, and try to recover. I know, that s**t is harsh for a Sunday morning.
I felt awful for this poor gal. Working as a waitress was bad enough. Cuz you could tell she was used to better. But a waitress in a Chinese Buffett? F**k... this poor thing looked sucidal.
And what's worse, is ahead of me in line, there was YET ANOTHER WHITE GIRL applying for a job. This girl was young, and still hadn't grown used to the finer things in life, but she was standing with something in her hand that almost made me throw up.
It was heinous.
It was...
a RESUME!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! MY GAHD!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WTF!!!!!!!!!!!F**K MEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!SUNNUFFA F**KING BITCH!!!!!!!!!!! WHAT THE F**K IS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
Yes, you read that right. There was what had to be a 18 year old good looking young white virgin applying for a job at a Chinese Buffet with a f**king resume.
Dude, that is why Hitler made Eva Braun kill herself; otherwise she would be forced to make FILTHY JUZE GANG-BANG PORN for the rest of her life.
THAT, my friends, is what this town is CUMMING TO.
Now, let me be clear; I DO NOT blame the husband of that white hotness serving me water while I slopped at a trough of Chinese mixed-meat s**t (yes, she had a ring). No.
I am saying that THIS is what we will have to endure in this place. White women working for motherf**king LING CHOW or some s**t. Dude, Ling Chow, is worse than a Gat Damn Niggra when he gots a White Woman under his thumb. Mother f**k!
THIS is why Bend will fall. Some things can be tolerated: Get ass-f**ked by a donkey and drinking it's cum from your own ass? F**k, ask Bledsoe, that's easy.
But a f**king MILFy hot white woman working for f**king Ling Chow at a Chinese Buffett? No. This cannot stand. I mean, last time one of the MONGREL RACES got their mits on a fine white Piece of A, we ended up with f**king OJ.
No, this is what Bend is coming to. WHITE WOMEN marry WHITE MEN and live in nice WHITE PICKET FENCED homes, with WHITE DOGS.
But that s**t is NOT going to happen here anymore. The NATURAL ORDER of things is getting butt-reamed, and God's Plan For Whitey is getting turned on it's head. And f**ked.
I don't know about you, but I don't even want to live in a World where a hot, white P-of-A has to work at a Chinese Buffett. F**k that. I mean, my God, that s**t is for the Jethro Bodines, the Todd Bridges', and the Tooties of the f**king World. F**king losers.
Bend is becoming a perversion of all that is good in the World. White women working in a Chinese Buffett? F**k that. That's bad enough to clean out at least half this town. That s**t is the saddest s**t I've ever seen.
OK, moving on from that sad, sad s**t...
There was a good piece in the Oregonian yesterday, here's some highlights:
Life after the bubble: From American dream to American nightmare
Kevin and Annette Martin celebrated their 15th anniversary by getting foreclosed out of their Newberg house. Kevin's homebuilding business collapsed in the recession, and they couldn't pay the mortgage.
Their bank, JPMorgan Chase, rejected the Martins' request for a mortgage modification and took legal possession of the house Aug. 19. On their anniversary two days later, the Martins and their two young children moved in with Kevin's aunt in her small condominium in Charbonneau.
They're broke, unemployed and visibly stunned at their rapid plunge from the middle class to the newly poor. A bomb of debt vaporized the Martins' once-comfortable life.
The heavy load of leverage they had assumed in hopes of grabbing their piece of the pie proved their undoing. "I believe in the American dream, the white picket fence and the whole thing," said Kevin, 38.
"But now, we're just in survival mode. For 14 months, it's been survival mode."
[... lot's of stats...]
The Martins now number among the grim statistics of the painful financial realignment. Maximum leverage was the norm in the high-stakes residential construction business when Kevin Martin started his company early this decade.
He and Annette first borrowed $120,000 in 2003 to buy land north of Newberg and build their own 2,600-square-foot house. Kevin went to work remodeling a historic home in Tigard and building spec houses in Yamhill and Washington counties.
But building the business required money. As their house gained in value, they refinanced their home loan multiple times. Kevin's grandmother and father co-signed on loans he took out to build homes in Tigard and McMinnville.
In the most recent home refinancing, the Martins took out a so-called negatively amortizing loan from Washington Mutual, one of those lending industry "innovations" that Lansing wrote of.
The loan was structured so that the amount they owed actually increased each month. By 2008, the Martins owed $512,000 on their house. They also owed $563,000 on a construction loan from Liberty Bank.
OnPoint Community Credit Union repossessed their three cars after the Martins stopped making payments on Kevin's 2008 Dodge truck. They didn't realize until afterward that their car loans were cross-collateralized: If they defaulted on one, the lender could seize all three.
OK, so these poor f**kers OWE over $1 million, own three vehicles, at least one of which is BRAND NEW. What I just love is the simpy-ass VICTIM SOB STORY here.
These f**kers, times several MILLION, are WHY this country is in the fix it's in. They borrowed a f**king million dollars, and LOST. And now the Oregonian is doing a VICTIM story on them. Here's a comment at the bottom of the piece:
Posted by beattlejuice October 10, 2009, 8:47AMWOW, SORRY, but very little sympathy here for one half the the interviewees. you borrowed a over a million dollars!? and your homebuilding bisiness went kaput and you bought a 2008 new truck? I could never do that.
It is because I have always lived within my means. I never even bought a kayak 20 years ago because i could not pay for it in full in 3 months or less with credit cards. I am one of those poor smucks who does not owe a dime to anyone and i have never "walked away from a debt or financial responsibility"...so please, please stop this "where is the american dream crap" because the dream is not stupidity.
I cannot relate, however, you have my sympathy or your troubles...trust me. The other interviewees are more sympathetic, but still 2500 to 3500 per month on a mortage, what were you thinking and where were you living and i could never afford that luxury; how could you? oh yes, your different.
I agree with Portowick here, some of you have a sense of entitlement that I never had, maybe it was upbringing, but I never thought i was entitled to anything. I worked. and when i was not working and unemployed i really worked double time searching for any job. I can see that our forefathers principles have eroded over time. Still, i feel your pain, but cannot relate.
I have to agree with this bastard. Here's another pissed off cunt:
Posted by jory October 10, 2009, 10:53AMMessage to America: When you borrow money, you're taking on a big risk and you have to pay it back. Why is this concept so hard to sink in?
Plan for the unexpected. It is not if but when you get sick, when you get laid off, when the economy goes into recession. These are no unforeseen events. They happen all the time and for those caught unprepared it is disastrous to them. Tough luck. Learn from your mistakes and stop asking for handouts.
This is going to happen... and really already IS HAPPENING... by the MILLIONS.
VICTIM MENTALITY.
It's NOT MY FAULT. I just got caught up in something beyond my control. Couldn't stop it. Not My Fault.
This is probably WHY we have a shrieking pack of liberals in control... RePugs tell you that s**t is YOUR FAULT. The Obaminator tells you Everything Will Be OK, I won the Nobel Peace Prize, so I oughtta know, right?
This whole country is losing it's sense of ACCOUNTABILITY. Do you know what that means? That means CONTRACTS RE-WRITTEN. That means NO TRUST. That means CONSTANT RENEGGING. No hbm, I didn't say "ren****ring" or some such. But being a rePug Nazi, I was probably thinking it....
It means that we are NOT being forced to learn our lessons over this fiasco. All the PAIN will be papered over, and the gubmint will take care of it.
But I can tell you right now, that this s**t will end BADLY. When the people lose accountability, the government loses accountability. And when the government loses accountability you end up with COMPLETE CHAOS.
There is some whacky s**t going on in the World economies. Little irritating upstarts, are starting to bypass economic giants. China is going to make more f**king cars than Japan next year! I mean, WTF?
White women are working for Chinese f**kers...WTF!
NO ACCOUNTABILITY. This is our legacy to our kids. It has consequences on all levels from one-on-one dealings to global economic implications. It means YOU CAN'T TRUST ANYONE.
OK, I'm going to reprint the Atlantic Monthly piece in it's entirety, primarily because bend Media has it's head firmly in the sand and WILL NEVER address or even acknowledge that Bend is thick with thieves in RE, and that this is one of the most corrupt and sinister towns in the World:
Robust Oregon Real Estate Market Poisoned by Fraud
"People have tried to bribe me. I've been threatened, both verbally and with a gun," real estate appraiser Richard Hagar tells me, recounting the heady days of the Pacific Northwest's housing boom, when unscrupulous loan originators in places like Bend, Oregon would aggressively demand his work confirm a dictated appraisal value, often many tens of thousands above the actual market value.
In Hagar's view, "This recession we're in was triggered by loan fraud. That's the end of it." Situated on the northern tip of the Great Basin at the foothills of the Cascades, with lush evergreen forests to the west and high desert grasslands to the east, the small central Oregon city enjoyed a population boom through the last decade. Retirees flocked to Bend for its clean mountain air and slow pace of life, while moneyed adventurers--mostly from California--came for winter skiing and summer outdoor fun.
Ranked the sixth fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country by the US Census Bureau in 2005, Bend's population increased from 50,000 residents in 2000 to nearly 80,000 today.
Now that population is contracting slightly, largely as a result of the rampant wave of foreclosures.
In a community with such rapid growth, the bursting bubble reverberates powerful shock waves.
By this writing, the number of mortgage defaults had more than tripled from their 2007 end-of-year total. Roughly half the properties currently on the market in Bend are either bank-owned or going through the short sell process, in which the owners close deals for less than their mortgage's value.
So much discussion about the real estate boom and bust focuses on irresponsible buyers, who overextended themselves in purchasing homes they couldn't actually afford, often with dreams of re-selling and making fortune off ever-increasing market values. But during a seminar Richard Hagar gave in Bend Tuesday evening, he pointed his expert finger at one insidious culprit: fraud.
Hagar expounded on this theme for me in a two-hour phone interview last night, after which I hung up somewhat disillusioned that most of the crooks who created the housing bubble would likely escape punishment, while their victims will struggle for years to regain footing after foreclosure, bankruptcy, and complete emotional and financial destitution.
Hagar has more than three decades of experience in the real estate industry, starting out as an agent in the mid-1970s, then becoming an appraiser in the 1980s, eventually earning the highly-prestigious SRA designation by the Appraiser's Institute. He holds real estate investments and still works as an appraiser, though much of his time over the past decade has been occupied by advising government officials on legislative efforts to regulate the mortgage industry, assisting law enforcement with fraud investigations, consulting on related legal cases, and conducting lecture tours to educate industry professionals and the public on how to identify and avoid engaging in fraud.
Real estate and mortgage fraud can manifest in various forms, but the particular variety that significantly infected the market in Bend involved mortgage brokers pressuring appraisers to overvalue properties for sale.
According to Hagar, in the early 2000s he first started hearing from his law enforcement contacts about this kind of problem popping up with increasing frequency in Bend. The corruption seemed to grow a little more pervasive with each passing year, until 2004 when it accelerated rapidly.
"The definition of market value is a matter of federal law," he says. "If appraisers had been following that definition throughout this growth, we would not have created the problems we now see."
"It's almost unheard of for an appraisal to 'make value,'" Hagar asserts, but throughout the housing boom in Bend, that seemed to be the norm. For the Bend appraisers, "They'd have an order coming in with a 'minimum value needed,' and if you couldn't make the value, the mortgage broker would just go down the street. He wouldn't hire you again, or wouldn't pay you."
In Hagar's view, "Almost all the bubble is related to them."
"There were people here forcing monstrous" overvalued loans, Hagar says. Once buyers signed paperwork on a loan larger than the value of their new home, they entered into the new purchase already completely stripped of equity, owing more on their mortgage than the house was worth.
Even before the market started to dive, these people couldn't sell their house for the amount they'd paid. At this stage, it's difficult to estimate what percentage of Bend's real estate bubble would be more appropriately described an illusion created by false valuation of properties.
In an environment plagued by an inflation deliberately orchestrated by a loose conspiracy of those profiting from higher prices, the term 'fair market value' becomes almost meaningless.
According to a 2007 report from the financial service companies National City Corp and Global Insight, Bend, Oregon overtook Naples, Florida to earn a dubious distinction as the metro area with the most overvalued real estate in the nation.
The median single-family house price had nearly doubled to $324,000 over the previous four years. Overall, the report estimated Bend real estate listings to run 78.7 percent over the survey's valuation price.
Mortgage brokers originated 70-90 percent of the loans, so Hagar places the largest share of blame on the unscrupulous in their ranks, though also points out many had to be complicit in order for the bubble to reach such extremes.
A modicum of vigilance would have immediately recognized corruption in the process, so the banks allowed it to happen, he says.
Most real estate agents wouldn't have known any better, but if they had figured it out, they wouldn't want to lose the higher commissions they enjoyed from the overvaluation.
At the request of state law enforcement officials, Hagar began making quarterly visits to Bend in 2005, offering his seminar on the basics of mortgage fraud to anyone who would attend. Unsurprisingly, many locals did not like him.
Blog postings and chain emails trying to discredit his work circulated through real estate industry networks. One time in late 2006 or early 2007, a Bend real estate agent reached him on his cellphone, launching into a full-throated tirade as soon as he answered.
"She yelled, 'There's no fraud in Bend. You can't say that. We're not scammers. We wouldn't do that. You'll destroy our real estate market,'"
Hagar recounts, adding his own response: "Hmmm, actually, you're destroying your market." That real estate agent, it later turned out, was representing a major housing developer (now bankrupt), which had begun offering illegal incentives to help close deals with prospective buyers--not an uncommon practice, but also, technically, a form of fraud.
Hagar guesses the woman didn't even realize she was personally engaged in fraudulent practices, ignorance being one of the primary causes for the crime's prevalence.
A legal team pursuing a mortgage brokerage accused of predatory lending in Bend recently requested Hagar review the company's files for evidence of fraud during the discovery phase of proceedings.
Hagar randomly reached into cabinets and started pulling out stacks of files. He'd found his first clear example of fraud within 15 minutes. By the time he worked his way through the files, Hagar had discovered about 80% of the loans involved some form of fraud, a percentage he says is in line with what the FBI discovered in a national audit of closed loans.
Those cases could represent a wide variety of fraud, but Hagar brings it back around to the role of appraisers, estimating, "There would have been 50-70% less fraud if appraisers had done their job."
Off the top of his head, Hagar can think of at least 30 Bend residents who would deserve to be indicted, tried, and convicted for their role in the fraudulent activities that artificially inflated the local community's housing bubble.
However, he says, "The reality is only about 5% will ever be caught."
"Poisoned by fraud"? F**k man, that is a damning piece.
"Hagar had discovered about 80% of the loans involved some form of fraud..."
I think I stand corrected on something I said YEARS ago on this blog: That this bubble, in this town, was the result of financial "incentives" gone awry. That we were merely swept up due to "fortuitous" circumstances. That Bend was swept away due to serendipity as much as anything by the housing bubble.
BULL F**KING S**T.
We're now finding out something that is becoming clearer EVERY F**KING DAY: This town is rife with corruption. There are thieves, scoundrels, and grifters in every corner of private commerce, media and local government that wanted this bubble to happen, and MADE IT HAPPEN through FRAUD, LIES, DECEPTION, and almost certainly FELONIES.
This town is RIFE with criminals; they are RUNNING this place. Look at Patty Smelly Cunt Moss: Besides having a cunt that smells like a hobo's boot, she has driven CACB into the ground with liar loans and fraud loans that have brought that bank to it's knees. She'll be gone in weeks, and the whole crumbling structure will fall into the abyss. And I'll cry crocodile tears for the investors who have lost HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS at the hands of this psycho bitch from hell.
And yet... The Bully still Hero Worships this psycho. Here's a nice ironic excerpt where Moss finds religion on credit quality
Businesses, banks alike caught in credit crunch
“Demand is still fairly strong for small-business loans,” said Patricia Moss, president and CEO of Cascade Bancorp, the Bend-based parent company of Bank of the Cascades. “But no matter what level of demand you have, a business still has to qualify. You can mitigate risk with price, but you can’t move away from the basic range of underwriting criteria because that demonstrates whether a bank can be paid back. A bank shouldn’t take an undue risk of not being paid back.”
I like the title... "CAUGHT in the credit crunch". VICTIM MENTALITY. "CAUGHT". Like it's a f**king coyote trap or some s**t.
The people in the piece can't get a loan TO STAY ALIVE. Moss pipes up and says she can't give out loans, cuz THE S**T HAS HIT THE FAN, the MINSKY MOMENT has arrived, and bulls**t loans can't be issued like they once were, and the WHOLE F**KING PIECE exudes the idea that ALL INVOLVED are VICTIMS, and are blameless for WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THEM.
If you agree with this, then you my friend, do not understand what it means to at least make a weak attempt at being financially prudent and living within your means.
I get the funny feeling that the financially prudent are actually going to get fisted most of all when this is done.
The government is loaning Corporate America TRILLIONS. They are taking the money at 0%, and buying treasuries making 4%. 4% of each TRILLION is $40 BILLION. THAT $40 billion has to be repaid. BY F**KING TAXPAYERS! That's US. You & me, who did not Get Rich on this f**king fiasco, are lining the pockets of those who caused it.
I'm telling you folks, there is a transfer of wealth, the likes of which will never be seen again, going on right now. It's from our kids, and grandkids to todays wealthy. They are being decimated. This country is AGAIN mortgaging it's future for the sake of a chosen few to go from rich to ridiculousy rich.
Started under Bush, and is being staunchly perpetuated by the Obaminator. F**k you if you think different.
That said, I think we're at an inflection point: This "recovery" is being sold like nothing before. To me, it feels like some sort of engineered recovery, so the rich would have one last chance to bail out on an imploding situation. Sounds ridiculous, right? Then I reiterate the f**king TRILLION DOLLAR LOAN SCHEME math again.
Trillions are being transferred to corporations. But this cannot go on forever. This is itself a LAST GASP of liar-loan fraud from the US government to corporate AmeriKKKa, before the whole edifice collapses into a smoldering heap.
So I tell you now: If you got stocks, SELL THEM NOW. If you got a house for sale, MARK IT DOWN AND SELL IT NOW. Got extra cars, PUT THEM ON CRAIGSLIST. SELL YOUR S**T. BATTON DOWN THE HATCHES. Cuz this "recovery" will soon be exposed for what it is: The biggest FRAUD, LIAR LOAN ever perpetrated in the history of mankind.
hbm, please teach me to be liberal racist motherf**king nerd, like you!
I glad whitey working to fund these mega-jugs!
"Ling Chow? You hire the white bitches! KITTY MAU!"
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Dear Lazy Trees, Thanks for Falling Down
» The BlenderAn open letter to the trees in my backyard:
Hey trees, I’m really sorry that you got so loaded with wet snow yesterday morning that you had no other choice but to drop all your branches on my lawn and break my fence and God knows what else. I love having my entire backyard full of your branches.If you can’t tell, which yRead More...
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4:59
What exactly will happen for the next 20 years in the housing market.
» Bend Bubble 2In trying to figure out what will happen in the future, I try to figure out if there is some sort of "model" that applies to the situation.
The housing bubble bursting is sort of hard to nail down, since it is pretty unprecedented. Housing prices as a whole have never really come down in this country. It's also hard to remember, but houses also used to not have such a "speculative" element to their pricing. House flipping was pretty marginal business, pretty much under the purview of sleazy infomercials until the late 90's.
But I think I have the housing market modeled pretty well, in a way that I think reflects the respective payoffs to the parties involved (and maybe I've talked about this before... I'm getting old).
It's our old friend, options.
See, when "we" build a house, we are "long" one house. Now, how it is financed is a secondary concern, but the asset, the house, exists, and we are "long" that house.
How it is financed does cleave the payoffs from this asset in a fairly interesting way.
When you buy a house, if you pay all cash, the payoff is simple: you gain and/or lose dollar for dollar whatever the house gains or loses. Pretty simple, the all-cash example is linear.
But when you buy a house, using one or more non-recourse mortgages (ie they can only take the house on default), you can't really lose monetarily anything once the house goes below the collective principle of the mortgage(s).
The "strike price" of the home is the sum of the mortgage principle. If you "cash out" (ie sell), you get the amount over and above the mortgage sum owed. If the sell price is below that, you simply get nothing.
Of course, it's more complicated than that, since there is also a cost borne of the hit to your credit record, and any sort of "psychic" or other costs, such as mental anguish, and such.
But this does model the purchase of a home using non-recourse debt.
So what is the payoff to the other side?
Well, if you study your options trading strategies, and I have, you know that to simulate a "long" payoff, you need to buy 1 call option (that's us, the home buyer), and sell 1 put option.
As an aside, a call option gives you the right (not the obligation) to buy a share of stock at a given price in a given period of time. A put option gives you the right (not obligation) to "put" a share of stock to someone at a given price within a given period of time.
So the "payoff" diagram of a call option looks like this (strike price = $30):
Call option payoff, $30 strike price.
So, say instead of $30 strike prices on shares of stock, think $300,000 mortgage on your home. Anything above that, you win, anything below... well, you just walk away.
So, we know we are "long" a house, financing ignored. And the home buyer is really long a call option, with a strike price of the mortgage amount. And for illustration purposes we'll ignore the fact that actually the home buyers "expiration date" and strike price change a bit everyday, since the mortgage is being paid off bit by bit thus lowering the strike price. We'll sort of look at it as a call option with a shorter expiration (like 1 year), with a sort of "blended" strike price of the average owed during the year.
So the other side of this transaction is the bank, and if you know anything about options, you know that they are essentially short a put option.
If they were long a put option, they could "put" the asset (ie house) to someone at a fixed price, something that's nice when prices are falling. But they aren't long, they are short, or the exact opposite. They can have the asset put to them at a fixed price, aka the mortgage principle.
So if the buyer owes $300K, and walks from the house worth $200K, the bank is out $100K. Simple.
So this is our housing market model: Buyers are long call options, banks are short puts the summation of these 2 positions equating to being long 1 house.
You might wonder, "Why in the hell would the banks ever go into a business with severely limited upside, and one hell of a lot of downside?"
Well, that's a good question. And the reason is simple, and was intimated to earlier: Banks receive "premium" (ie your mortgage interest payments) for bearing risk.
Think of an interest-only mortgage: The bank can receive (and invest) this amount every month for 30 years, and at the end they will either receive nothing (ie the house is worth more than the mortgage), or they will have to pay some amount that the house has fallen below the mortgage.
And before now, the idea that a house would be worth less in any decent period in the future was pretty absurd. In fact, this "bet" for banks was, and always has been, a pretty safe one.
But let's get back to our little housing model. To figure out the value of our home buyers "call option" we'd use Black-Scholes. I don't want to go into the mechanics of the formula, primarily because I don't fully understand them, but I do know a few things about option pricing.
When you are buying a call option, the price goes UP when:- The volatility of returns goes up.
- The strike price goes down.
- The time to expiration is increased.
When the price of a stock is all over the place, the options for that stock, both puts and calls, go up in price.
When the "strike price" goes down, the value of a call goes up, since it's intrinsic value goes up.
When the time to expiration increases, you have more time for the stock to go above your strinke price, and so the value of a call goes up.
So, let's think about the historical aspects of this state of affairs, a bunch of Americo's long call options, and a bunch of banks short puts on the largest store of wealth on Earth, the US housing market.
Well, with respect to Black-Scholes, we can say that the call option buyer probably wants lower volatility, since that lowers the price of their option. The put seller actually can charge more at times of high volatility.
But US housing was never really volatile before 1997. Up a few percent here & there. Maybe once in awhile there would be a regional spike higher or lower, but on the whole home prices moved very steadily, if not slowly, higher. Home volatility has been historically low.
Lowering the "strike price" on a home, basically means increasing the down payment. This pushes up the value of a home owners "call option". It means they have more to lose if the price goes down.
The fundamental thing a large down payment does is it moves the strike price to the left, while the home value remains the same. The home buyer already has built-in "intrinsic value", and a pretty good cushion on which to make money. Similarly, the banks "loss point" moves way down (to the left, to the left), and given fairly stable returns over time, can pretty much count on a long, stable stream of interest payments from a call buyer who has got their financial ass on the line.
OK, so we've had this regime of stable returns, steadily incraesing prices, and fairly hefty down payments until about the past decade.
Then, what happens in any speculative bubble happened to buyers of home call options: They started buying more and more, and banks having lost their senses, also started participating, despite the fact that the increased volatility had actually imperiled the "value" of their vast holding of short puts (home mortgages).
The volatility pushed UP what people were willing to pay for call options, and increased the "premium" received for short puts. And slowly but surely, down payments shrunk, literally to nothing; ie the strike prices on homes equaled their value, and call buyers had almost nothing at risk except the transaction costs, which had actually grown considerably... but were still dwarfed by the potential gains.
And while prices were going up wildly, no really cared. Call prices, bought at little or nothing due to shriveling credit standards, leveraged returns to the sky. Instead of putting 20% down on a home & living in it, people put 3% down on 10 homes (that's 7, plus 3 more on credit cards, so I can retire in the Bahamas!).
And if your house went up 10% when you put 20% down, that was a nice 50% payoff.
But hell, if you put 3% down on 10 homes, and prices went up 10%, that was over 300% on the same money! Even with thick 1%+ transaction costs, it was still worth it.
And so our bubble was created. As usual, with high volatility and increasing strike prices (leverage), and the inherent risk associated with both.
So where are we now? Yes, yes.
Strangely, we have too many homes. That would be that pesky pursuit of 300% returns on 10 homes, not 1, kicking in.
Yeah, should have seen that coming.
Second, the banks hold short put options on assets (those 10 homes no one wants) that have plummeted in value. Yeah, this would be that pesky mortgage crisis I've been hearing about.
Yes, banks ALWAYS have a fairly limited upside on speculative bubbles, but typically (and theoretically) unlimited downside... well, at least to zero, or 100% losses on the assets.
Given that the cumulative sum of US homes was in the low to mid $20 trillion dollar range when this party got started, and prices have fallen off 40%, AND banks had the good sense to spike the party punchbowl with down payments of near 0%, well you've got yourself a recipe for a financial conflagration the likes of which cannot be imagined.
That tells us where we are. And might I add that this blog was around before this monster catastrophe even got started, way back in Dec 2006. And I'll try not to pull a muscle patting myself on the back here, but put all these option analogies together -- the increasing volatility, the shrinking "strike prices" (down payments), and you can see that while the individual call option owners (that's us) had quite a bit to lose (the collective "net worth" of homes in 2006 was many trillions), it was ALWAYS the banks that had the most to lose in a truly colossal meltdown of home prices.
You and me? We can just walk away. The banks just keep losing. And losing.
Or do they?
Our True and Goodly leaders have seen their way clear to taking our money, yes all that medicade and social security cash, and give it back to the fine local put sellers who are losing their shirts (ie Patty Moss et al).
So actually, our model is somewhat off. Because way down in the depths of the left hand side of our option payoff graph, the banks own a long put: They are putting their losses to the American people.
Way, way off to the left... something strange is happening. The banks have received something of almost mond-boggling value: A "free" put option.
Or is it 2 free puts options?
Because, if you look at the payoff diagram of a short put, you see it is the "horizontal" mirroring of a long put. A short put option has a flat payoff as prices increase (simple interest payment collection), but bends lower as prices fall (foreclosure).
Let's say banks on the whole have $15 trillion in mortgages outstanding. That "bend" lower is at $15 trillion and lower. But somehow, banks losses are being capped at an amount equal to what is probably their total capitalization, or about $1-2 trillion, I'd guess.
So somewhere around the $13 trillion mark, the linear negative payoff flattens. More absurdly, it actually seems to turn UP, and head back towards ZERO.
So the banks REAL PAYOFF seems to be a flat line, with a "V" in the middle. It pays banks to be nowhere near the bottom of this V. Be far above, or far below... but not in it's deadly center.
This raises all sorts of issues of fiduciary peril, the likes of which I hope you can clearly see.
But what I find far more interesting is the "offset".
We're STILL only long that one house (or one hundred millions houses... same diff). And Obama Jeebus W Bush has issued the banks somewhere between 1 and 2 FREE put options, meaning their losses are CAPPED below certain loss levels.
So WHO is paying for that put option... or options?
Ah yes... the answer is, of course, us! The American Taxpayer is paying for it.
So, to balance the equation of issuing banks a put option, we are going SHORT a put.
So now the tables are turned. What we thought was our collective "long call"on our homes, with unlimited upside and limited downside, has transformed. Our government has FORCED us to issue a SHORT PUT on the American housing stock, subjecting US to the full brunt of losses below a certain strike price.
But we don't receive interest. And with volatility at it's maximum, the value being lost is worth TRILLIONS.
THIS is the legacy we are leaving to posterity: The payoff of buying a home in this country has been fundamentally altered. Your call option is still in place. You can still win when/if prices go up.
But lurking on the dark side of the mortgage collective is the implicit short put option that will bail out the banks, AND STICK YOU WITH THE FULL BRUNT OF THE LOSSES.
The FLAT left-hand side of the payoff matrix is A LIE. YOU own the losses down there, NOT banks.
Maybe we should have known. How can banks, with their relatively thin capitalization, sustain losses FOREVER? Answer, they can't and they never could. There was always an implicit saving put option owned down there for them in the form of a government bailout.
So you are, as a home buyer, buying a huge call option when you buy a house, and now you KNOW that you are also PAYING for a put option as well. Never really "knew" it before... circumstances had always let it expire worthless, cuz prices inexoribly & continually went up. Not anymore. Prices CAN go down. A lot.
That f**king put option can take EVERYTHING.
Hmmmm...
This whole housing "investment" scheme seems a LOT less attractive. My upside is "unlimited" yes... but my f**king downside is also UNLIMITED. There's a "flat spot" there in the middle... but damn, we sliced through that like butter, and went straight to massive bank bailouts like flies go to s**t.
Yes, yes... I will think twice about ever buying into this payoff matrix. It's not as good as it once was. Before now, it was all caviar and Lamborghini's. Now there's real pain if things don't work out.
No... I don't think I'll be doing that again.
So now... You Will See It Coming. Because THAT is what is going to happen. No more difficult to figure out than simply modeling the situation, and analyzing the payoffs.
It was this easy in 2006. But strangely, Patty Moss and the vast pool of experts the Bully and the rest of Bend media relied on had a curious dearth of insight into the problem.
This is a problem No One Saw Coming.
I did. You probably did.
Know thyself, motherf**ker.
So when, in 5 or 10 years, when housing demand has simply Gone Away, and the Bully is interviewing Experts Who Cannot Explain What Is Going On, you'll know:
The payoffs have changed. "We" CAN LOSE. We are losing. But the debt? It's our kids problem, so who gives a s**t.
Well, you should, cuz it's not really our kids... unless you're damn near dead already. It's us. The debt bomb is ticking, and we owe. Civilizations always die impaled on the pike of debt. Always.
The problem isn't going broke, it's worse than that. We'll lose this country.
To see our "bankers", look East.
Both the borrower & lender have nukes.
And a lender with nukes will always recover the vig.
Cowboy hats & bikini's... cures anything
Damn... 
Thumbs up to NUKES!
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A book for animal lovers and those in search of grace
» DT from da FP
I was supposed to blog about this book last week but life got in the way. That being said I'd still like to let everyone know about a charming book called Stray Affections by Charlene Ann Baumbich.
Anyone who loves animals and needs to be reminded about love and grace will enjoy this book. It is a light, easy read and has a great story of a mother and daughter who find healing and grace after a lifetime of hurt and rejection.
About This BookThe last thing that Cassandra Higgins expects out of her Sunday is to be mesmerized at a collectors’ convention by a snowglobe. She’s enjoying some mommy time, with husband Ken at home tending their brood of four young boys, when she’s utterly charmed by the one-of-a kind globe containing figures of three dogs and a little girl with hair the color of her own. She can’t resist taking the unique globe home– even if means wrestling another shopper for it!
The beautiful snowglobe sparks long-dormant memories for Cassie, of her beloved Grandpa Wonky, the stray she rescued as a child, and the painful roots of her combative relationship with her mother, “Bad Betty” Kamrowski. Life in Wanonishaw, Minnesota is never dull, though, and Cassie keeps the recollections at bay, busy balancing her boys, her home daycare operation, and being a good friend to best pal Margret. But after a strange–flurrious, as Cassie deems it–moment happens with the remarkable snowglobe, Cassie and the people she loves are swirled into a tumultuous, yet grace-filled, and life-changing journey.
With the quirky, close-knit Midwestern small-town feel that made Charlene Ann Baumbich’s acclaimed Dearest Dorothy novels so popular, Stray Affections invites you to experience the laughter and the healing of second chances.I do have a copy of this book to give away. So if you or someone you know would like to read this little gem, let me know. Leave a comment and I'll put you in the drawing for the book.
Have a great week!!
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10:59
Bend and Oregon Stats.
» best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever hadI keep calling for someone to aggregate the significant economic statistics for Bend and for Oregon, but no one seems to want to do it. So I'll take a stab at it.
I assembled the following stats over a couple of days. It's a bit of a mishmash, and there may even be more up to date statistics, but it's the best I can do without spending days on it.
From now on it should be much clearer, as I catch the news items on the days and weeks as they happen.
It need not be all negative statistics, just significant statistics -- that point to exceptional differences. If anyone can point out some valid positive stats, I'll be glad to include them. If anyone can find any other eye-opening stats, I'd love to see them.
I'm doing this because these types of stories go whizzing by, and there is no way to really keep them in perspective without comparing. I remember reading a story about Bend being the "Most Over-Retailed" town in America a few years ago, and I've never been able to find it since, so I'd like to catch those kinds of articles as well.
This is just a baby step. Like my my other open post, "Downtown Openings and Closings," I will repost this on a regular basis as information is updated.
*****BEND and/or OREGON'S EXCEPTIONAL STATISTICS*****
***9/6/09: BEND BULLETIN.
"...tourism for the last fiscal year fell 9.5% in unincorporated Deschutes County and 14.4 percent in Bend..."
**********
***9/4/09: BBC NEWS.
Economic crash in Oregon boomtown
By Adam Brookes
*The population of Bend quadrupled in under 20 years - from 20,000 to 80,000.
*Between 2001 and 2005, the median value of a home in Bend rose by 80%.
*By 2005, work was getting underway on 700 new homes each month.
*But when the US slumped, Bend crashed. The value of a home fell 40% in under two years.
*And unemployment nearly quadrupled from around 4% two years ago to 15% in the summer of 2009.
**********
***9/5/09: FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON.
29%. Largest two year shortfall in two-year state budget by percent.
**********
***6/11/09: IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT.
Top 10 Overvalued Housing Markets, 2009 first quarter
City Price Percent overvalued
Atlantic City, N.J. $243,600 44.1
Ocean City, N.J. $302,100 33.8
Wenatchee $247,100 29.3
Longview $192,600 26.6
Honolulu, Hawaii $614,500 25.7
St. George, Utah $197,000 25
Bend, Ore. $240,800 24.9
Bellingham, Wash. $288,900 24.2
**********
***6/30/09: ASSOCIATED PRESS.
Third highest jump in unemployment.
"About 15 percent of people living in Bend are unemployed, up from about 8.8 percent last year this time. Bend's jump was third-highest in the nation of any sized city, according to the report."
**********
***9/2/09: KTVZ.COM.
"Central Oregon ranks sixth in the nation in overall homelessness rates and third among rural communities, according to a report just released this week by the National Alliance to End Homeless."
CoCs with Highest Rates of Homelessness (per 10,000)
1. Detroit, MI 216
2. Mendocino County, CA 161.3
3. Monroe County, FL 146.9
4. Portland, ME 116
5. Santa Cruz, CA 111.7
6. Central Oregon 110.5
7. Merced, CA 109.3
8. Santa Barbara, CA 106.1
9. Boston, MA 98
10.District of Columbia 96.6
**********
***9/-/09: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Unemployment Rates for Metropolitan Areas
Monthly Rankings
Not Seasonally Adjusted
July 2009
341 Bend, OR Metropolitan Statistical Area 13.9
(#341 out of 372 Metro Areas.)
**********
***9/-/09: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Unemployment Rates for States
Monthly Rankings
Seasonally Adjusted
July 2009p
47** OREGON ** 11.9
**********
***6/17/09: NEW YORK TIMES.
Slump Dashes Oregon Dreams of Californians
By WILLIAM YARDLEY
"Now the Californians who contributed to Oregon’s growth are in some cases adding to its economic struggle. As of May, Oregon had the second-highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 12.4 percent, behind Michigan. California, which has not released its May figures, ranked fifth in April.
While some other states with high unemployment, including Michigan, have seen their labor forces shrink, Oregon’s labor force has grown. Economists say some of the growth appears to be driven by people who moved here with money they made in California, whether from real estate or stock market investments, and expected to get by but now must look for work."
**********
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WANTED: Loving Tenants for Our Bend Home
» Ad HOC : Words + Ideas
Not a property management company, just real Bend people seeking good renters for our home.
Dog-friendly, people-friendly, comfy, modern three-bedroom, two-bath home with large, fenced-in backyard yard and attached two-car garage and storage shed. Bend’s new Wildflower Park is a block away. The street is very quiet and the neighbors are mostly families. Clear Choice Health Plans, St. Charles Medical Center and the hub of Bend’s health care community are less than a mile away. Public bus, shopping, schools, sports fields are all nearby.
$900 per month (+ security/pet deposit), 12-month lease preferred. "Rent to Own" lease option agreements also considered. Well mannered dog welcome, and other reasonable requests open for discussion. Available October 1.
Call Harold at 541.815.9829. You're going to love coming home!
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My Ween Interview
» The Blender
Ween: Tonight at the Les Schwab Amphitheater, 6:30pm show.
You may have seen my feature in this week's paper previewing the Ween show tonight at the Les Schwab Amphitheater, but I thought the diehard fans out there might want to read the entire transcript of my interview with Mickey Melchiondo (Dean Ween) while gearing up for tonight's show. So hRead More...
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6:45
The Poor Get Richer.
» Bend Bubble 2I swore I wouldn't jump into the muck & mud of politics on this thing, mainly because it is like religion, it's an argument that cannot be won. I just see people who engage in endless political debates on any side, as unable to divine the fundamental truth that whatever side they are on and whatever point they choose to argue, they cannot win.
Extended political debates are like watching 3 year olds argue whether green or orange is a better color.
That said, the political face of this country is starting to resemble the hated Cali-Banger. Extreme in all regards. Not just big titties, but only the Biggest Titties On Earth will do. Not just a nice big car, but a f**king SUV that blots out the Sun. Not just a house too big, but a McMansion that is an gaudy abomination to pocketbook & neighbor alike.
Politicos seem to think that they are in a tug-O-war, pulling mightily for the control of The Vast Center. That if they are extreme enough, they will influence the vast hordes of moderates to go their way.
Libs see themselves as enlightened scholars and the vast middle as mentally pliable dullards. The RePugs see the middle as politically nomadic wildebeats to be turned to their will, or eaten. Strangley, religion seems to be the weapon of choice for both.
But again, I simply see a contingent that is wandering away from the middle, which is fine. But there is no rope. Extremist loonies actually make me go the other way.
I don't have cable at home, but the short exposure on cable-TV-enabled vacations I had to the clearly obvious right-wing ravings of CNBC were the most convincing arguments for the left I've seen in a long time. Now, the "I Told You So, Those Right Wing F**kers Are Wrong On Everything!" lib retort is the best way to push me back to my comfy, cozy rePug roots.
And I must say, that one of a few scenarios must be true: Either Bend is FULL of extremists, or I attract Lib's like flies, cuz I don't know anyone who is just a calm moderate centrist. And by that I mean someone who has a thoughtful reason for backing whatever it is their political beliefs are.
For example, not that I am thoughtful, but I am pretty party-line Reaganesque RePug, but I do not think abortion should be outlawed. Abortion is going to happen, one way or another. Period. RePugs who don't understand that are confusing their idealism with the pragmatism of the individual. Plus, I do not believe I should blithely make political decisions regarding a womans body. More accurately, I don't believe abortion should be a political decision. It's an individual decision, not mine or some politico whore.
And ALL my lib friends use THAT example as some sort of rationalizing for ALL lib political viewpoints, and that I should see the light on ALL OF THEM, like I have BABY KILLING. No.
And equally heinous RePugs, like my beloved sister, who was a devout Dem supporter until Monicagate, are aghast, wondering why I am in league with SATAN.
Oy.
I guess my opinion on politics is that the extremists seem to think that they are engaged in a titanic debate with the enormous mass of the middle ready to roll down one side of the mountain or the other, when in reality there is no vast middle being influenced. If anything, many are repelled to the other side.
Many are flying the flag of the Cal-Banger ethos, Extremis delectatio morosa. You can see the pointlessness when these sides clash:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYlZiWK2Iy8
OK, enough of that s**t, that makes me wanna puke.
I saw a short, interesting piece in The Economist:
The housing wealth effect
ANOTHER housing crisis meme circulating is that much of the recession's pain can be explained by the consumption impact of falling housing wealth. It's a pretty attractive storyline; homeowners feel rich based on their home's paper value and therefore buy more, or they actively use paper housing wealth to fund consumption via home equity loans.
Then, when housing prices fall that wealth disappears and national consumption craters. The problem with this line of thought is that falling housing prices mean falling housing costs for renters, who experience the crash as an increase in their real wages. Rising consumption from richer-feeling renters should partially or entirely offset falling consumption from owners.
New research on the euro area by Ricardo Sousa seems to support this second view of the housing wealth effect:
This paper estimates the wealth effects on consumption in the euro area as a whole.
I show that: (i) financial wealth effects are relatively large and statistically significant; (ii) housing wealth effects are virtually nil and not significant; (iii) consumption growth exhibits strong persistence and responds sluggishly to shocks; and (iv) the immediate response of consumption to wealth is substantially different from the long- run wealth effects.
By disaggregating financial wealth into its major components, the estimates suggest that wealth effects are particularly large for currency and deposits, and shares and mutual funds.
In addition, consumption seems to be very responsive to financial liabilities and mortgage loans.
It isn't the case that falling housing prices can have no effect on the broader economy; they certainly do. It's merely the case that the effect of falling housing wealth on consumption is not the main pathway for an interaction between declining housing values and output.
I find this interesting I guess because it describes me. I don't own a home, and the attending mortgage, plus the recent stock market rebound has done wonders for my net worth.
All this plus the fact that I sort of positioned myself delta-positive for a decline, and I am better off financially than I have been in years. Maybe ever. Hard to say, as I have had homes & businesses acquired with debt, and getting a bead on these illiquid financial assets was only really possible upon their liquidation, which is strangely an event that makes me feel poorer.
So I am spending. A lot. And that's a relative statement, I guess. As I said I don't have cable. Until recently I had a 1950's era TV. But I am buying books. Going out to eat, once in awhile (Sno Cap in Redmond). I do more than single-mindedly walk through the grocery aisles at Costco. Bought my wife a blender a few weeks ago. All this, and I have enough in the bank to survive 18 months with zero income.
I guess THAT is what makes me feel rich: I can live a LONG TIME with what I have, and make all my financial committments. Which are not many. Well... maybe THAT'S what really makes me feel rich: I don't owe much to anyone.
And that was definitely NOT the case in years past when I had a nice big home I owned, or a business that certainly made me feel rich as I cycled through a fairly decent chunk of change each month. I could not have survived those times with my financial resources for more than a few weeks.
So my asset-base is far scaled down now. And maybe in some technical sense, my net-worth is lower now than it may have been in the past. But my debts are almost non-existent, which hasn't been the case since I started college. And THAT is what gives me a very serene state of mind.
And that is why I am "spending". Which basically means I am saving 50% of my income, not 55%.
And it took almost 2 years, but they finally dropped the prices enough for me to buy a game console! Wii-Hoo!
But I still don't have cable. That's a monthly check I still don't want to write.
So I'll end it this week with a great piece from The Economist:
Where it all began
Signs of stabilisation should not obscure the big problems still ahead
HE IS hardly your typical distressed seller. Hugh Hefner recently sold his personal residence in Holmby Hills, California, next door to the Playboy mansion, to a 25-year-old entrepreneur for $18m--some 36% below the asking price.
It will come as little solace to the ageing Lothario that the discount looked about right: house prices have fallen by one-third from their peak nationwide, and by much more than that in the worst-hit states, such as California, Florida and Nevada.
Although global financial sickness first erupted in American residential property, thanks to ludicrously lax subprime lending, policymakers have recently seemed more worried about asset classes to which the infection subsequently spread.
When the Federal Reserve this week extended the life of a facility to support asset-backed securities, for instance, it was more out of concern for commercial property than for housing. Nevertheless, observers agree that America's economy--and all those banks still saddled with underperforming mortgages--will struggle to recover while house prices are still falling.
The Obama administration's economic successes "will be for naught" if the housing free-fall continues much longer, says Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com. Hence the excitement over some recent, albeit tentative, signs of stabilisation.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in 20 cities, ticked up slightly in May, its first gain in 34 months. New construction of single-family homes rose in July for the fifth straight month.
Sales of existing homes are expected to show their fourth consecutive month of gains when latest numbers are released on August 21st (see chart 1, right-hand side).
Toll Brothers, a big home-builder, just recorded its first gain in net orders (new orders minus cancellations) for four years. With homes now at their most affordable in living memory, relative to median income, "we've finally found a level where people want to do deals," says Pam Liebman, chief executive of Corcoran, an estate agency.
The revival is largely at the lower end, which helps explain this week's $1.4-billion acquisition of Centex, a home-builder which specialises in cheaper houses, by Pulte Homes. Dig deeper, however, and the recovery's foundations look shaky.
Rising joblessness will continue to weigh on demand for homes. The unemployment rate, currently 9.4%, is expected to peak at more than 10% some time next year.
The economic effect of unemployment is wider: as more and more of those still in work know someone who has lost their job, they will think twice before buying a property. Consumer confidence remains fragile.
For those seeking a mortgage, credit is still hard to come by. The two main federally backed mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have tightened their standards for new loans (though mortgages handled by their sibling, Ginnie Mae, have fallen in quality).
A Federal Reserve survey of loan officers, released on August 17th, suggested that banks will remain tight-fisted for some time. They are still grappling with growing losses from residential mortgages.
These will not peak until early next year, reckons Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley. Moreover, the positive signs in housing are partly driven by short-term factors. One is the tax credit for first-time buyers that was included in Mr Obama's stimulus package: some are rushing to buy now because deals must close by November 30th to qualify.
Annual tax refunds, handed out in recent months, may also have given the market a temporary lift. Attractive mortgage rates helped, too. But these have climbed off their historic lows, despite efforts to keep them down through the Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
Many expect them to rise further as ballooning government borrowing puts upward pressure on Treasury yields. A glut of supply will also weigh on prices, thanks to a wave of repossessions.
Foreclosures are running at record levels, with one in 355 of the nation's homes receiving a filing in July alone. Seized properties now account for almost one in four sales.
Increasingly, those losing their homes are supposedly safer borrowers with "prime" mortgages. They now account for more foreclosures than subprime borrowers, says the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
With 1.8m homes already in foreclosure, a "similar amount" may be heading that way, reckons Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank. Even those states that were the first to feel pain are still seeing a sharp increase in pre-foreclosure notices.
In California one type of notice, for "trustee sales", leapt by 32% from June to July, according to ForeclosureRadar, a website. Even more worryingly, delinquencies, the raw material for foreclosures, are still on the rise across much of the once-golden state.
In Orange County nearly 7% of mortgages are at least three months overdue but not yet foreclosed, up from around 5% at the start of the year. The rise in negative equity--when a borrower's mortgage debt exceeds the value of his home--is also fuelling foreclosures, not least because many would rather walk away than keep making payments on a home that is worth much less than the sum owed on it.
Zillow.com, a property-information service, estimates that 23% of homes with mortgages are underwater. Others put it higher.
A staggering 60% are submerged in Las Vegas. Deutsche Bank's securitisation team expects negative equity to peak at 48% of total homes by 2011.
That may be too pessimistic, but all agree that the number will rise further. This matters because negative equity weighs doubly heavily on home prices, by both weakening demand (it traps potential buyers in their homes) and adding to supply (it often ends in seizure and distressed sales).
Government efforts have done little to stop the rot. Under the main foreclosure-prevention programme, only 235,000 struggling borrowers have had their loans altered to make payments more affordable, out of 4m targeted for help.
Even with a financial incentive to modify, loan servicers remain reluctant. Many borrowers are too deep in negative equity and the redefault rate is too high. "It doesn't help if you're drowning in 20 feet of water instead of 30," says Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist.
Moreover, the typical troubled mortgage is getting harder to modify because it is more likely to be the result of unemployment than an interest-rate increase.
Bringing the monthly payment down by 20% does not help when the borrower has no job.
Even if the pace of modification quickens, the overhang of unsold homes will remain dauntingly large. The inventory represents 9-10 months of supply, three times the level in a tight market, says Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist. Paradoxically, a further wave of supply could crash over the market if it is widely seen to be stabilising. Many homeowners who sat tight while prices fell will try to sell at the first sign of a turnaround, according to surveys.
In one, conducted by Zillow in July, 29% of respondents were at least "somewhat likely" to put their home on the market once the market perked up. The release of this "shadow inventory" could smother the recovery before it gathers speed.
Just as worrying is the possible recurrence of "payment shock" as interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages reset higher. Resets on subprime loans have mostly taken place, but the worst is yet to come for some other loans, especially the "Alt-A" category between prime and subprime and a nasty type of mortgage called an "option ARM" (see chart 3).
The impact may be muted, but only if the Fed can keep short-term rates very low for the next couple of years--or if the borrowers can refinance as the reset approaches.
Given these downside risks, the recent pop in house prices will probably fizzle. Most economists expect them to fall by a further 5-10 percentage points, to their long-term trend line at roughly 40% below their peak, and not to reach bottom until some time in 2010.
The pessimists predict they will go crashing through the trend-line to as little as half their 2006 high. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, no fools when it comes to housing, hint at several years of stagnation.
They argue that the rate of home ownership, currently just over 67%, will fall back to the 64-65.5% level that prevailed before prices took off in the mid-1990s, cutting deeply into demand for properties.
This view is supported by a recent Fed study, which found that more than half of the boom-era rise in ownership was due to "innovative" mortgage products, many of which are now history.
It could be even worse.
Now that the myth of ever-rising house prices has been shattered, it may be time to embrace another inconvenient truth: that prices can take decades to recover, at least when adjusted for inflation.
A study in June by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, a regulator, pointed out that in parts of Texas house prices still languish some 30% below their 1982 peaks in real terms. Mr Hefner may not have got such a bad deal after all.
hbm, political knob-wanking makes me wet!
Buster, I'm thirsty for verbal abuse!
Dunc watches poolside as women fight for scraps on Free Comic Book Day.
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9:56
Back in my accustomed spot.
» best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever hadWhew.
I was getting worried. It seemed there for awhile that everyone was as negative or even more negative than I was about the business climate in Bend. I've talked to out-of-towners who seemed to believe that downtown Bend is desolate, boarded up. And, of course, it's amazingly busy with new stores popping up everywhere. (How everyone is actually doing -- as I always point out -- may be something else entirely.) Stores keep a'comin'.
But, now, with the seasonal uptick, that has changed. People are getting all excited like, and thinking we're back! I find myself once again -- I won't say more negative, I'll say -- less positive than most people I talk to. That makes me feel a little more secure, somehow.
I think we're still in the slobbering, muggy, muddling part of the low middle range. (Sorry to use so many technical terms.) For instance, June has shown no real strength, and it's almost over. Even if July and August pick up, we're already too far in to make up for it.
So...after that, we're into the Fall season, then Christmas, then the long slow slog to summer, again.
Foreclosure and short sales, all around. I was talking to a developer who said that all those bids for short sale houses are for show. That the people making the bids are more or less being strung along, so that the bank can establish a low value and take back the house themselves.
Which goes along with what I've read nationally that the banks don't actually want to relinquish their 'toxic' assets, because they still think they can make money from them.
All they have to do is wait it out. Not make any loans and stay solvent.
Not sure that was the intention of the 'bail-out.'
Positive attitude can only take us so far. If real time foreclosures and alt-loan adjustments are there to hammer us down again. No building, to speak of. It is pretty much survival time. Breaking even will be an achievement.
A few small trends, I don't know how significant they are. It's anecdotal, and I just believe it's happening but can't prove it.
The first trend actually is documented, but I don't know how long running it will be.
1.) Lots of people and lots of small sales. But not very many big sales. I'm not seeing what I would consider the "Hey, we're on vacation, let's buy it" crowd yet. It's still early and they may show up.
2.) More cash transactions. Seems like people aren't whipping out their card quite as much. I noticed on one day that I didn't get a single purchase with a card until late in the afternoon. But that may have been a fluke.
3.) People coming into the store who are telling me that they are either moved to Bend, or are planning to move to Bend. Some have even bought a house. Then again, if someone has left town, I guess they wouldn't be around to tell me. I saw the biggest exodus over the winter, and the shelves seem to have stabilized.
4.) People seem to think the economy is getting better. I don't think it is, other than seasonal variation. I think what we're seeing right now is what we'll see for at least one more year, and probably two. Sure, the severe decline has slowed, but I think 'green shoots' is overstating it.
5.) Nevertheless, the middle management people, the people between the actual small business, and the media on either end, seem to think things are getting better. They even reassure me it's getting better. Why? Because the media is saying it, and because their clients -- the stores -- aren't telling them it's Armageddon anymore. But....stasis is not exactly the same thing as 'turning around.'
Like I said, I think we're in the great muddy muddle middle.
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5:15
"Bend is in a depression..." -- Bob Thomas
» Bend Bubble 2Well, there you have it, folks.
Reputable business man telling a house subcommittee, and then printed in our local rag:
BEND IS IN A DEPRESSION
Wow. THAT makes it official. Although, we've been saying that for over a year.
I thought that was pretty stunning, to hear someone say that, much less have the Bully print it.
And not to belabor the point, and in case you've been in a cave for 2 years, the CAUSE of our current DEPRESSION is the REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY. Pure and simple, endlessly promoted and pumped and dumped on us, it was the real estate bubble, and it's inevitable collapse that is THE CAUSE of our current problems.
I feel like I have to say this sort of thing, because it's starting to spread & manifest itself in all sorts of collateral effects. Like Bob Thomas losing his dealership.
Almost any industry fueled by credit is getting it's ass waxed.
So you might think we're suffering a "credit bust", which we are, but it's primary vehicle for expansion was RE. We're not in a Depression because of zero down car deals.
The rest of the article about Thomas is standard self-serving tripe, standard issue when the Bully does it's usual BS. Even Greg Walden hops on the bandwagon, questioning the "wisdom" of closing ANY dealerships.
I just have 2 observations about this:
1) I still DO NOT understand why Gary Gruner in Madras is still alive.
I would have guessed they'd be The First GM dealership closed in Cent OR, GM bankruptcy or not. Gary Gruner? WTF?
2) Driving around auto row, and Bob Thomas' lots, there are NO CARS for sale in Cent OR.
Well, not "NO CARS", but a hell of a lot less than there were just a year ago. You could go to auto row on the East side, and see a ridiculous number of cars over there. THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS.
That was one of those businesses that was so irrational, I simply could not understand how any of those dealers survived. There are STILL too many.
And that doesn't count the innumerable used car dealers, whose numbers are now being swelled by new car dealers losing their franchises & joining their ranks.
I think you'll see a winnowing in the numbers of dealers, especially on auto row. There is just a ridiculous number of them. And the number of cars sold has already plunged, probably far worse than most people think. Ask Bob Thomas.
Proably the most amazing piece I've read since this whole RE Implosion began, is a piece posted in the comments by PopGoesBend. Excerpts:
Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of Southland
Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation.
John A. Beatrice, 55, bought his spacious two-story Spanish-style house there brand-new for $120,000 in 1989. But he never imagined his neighborhood would drop off the charts. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500.
That's just over half the $130,000 it went for new in 1992. In 2005, that house sold for $330,000. ...in 14 Southland ZIP Codes, mainly desert communities in the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, median prices have fallen below levels recorded in April 1989, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate information service.
That means thousands of homes in those neighborhoods -- even houses barely 20 years old and in decent shape -- have lost every dime of their appreciation, giving back not just the gains of the recent bubble but steady increases logged over a generation.
The April median price in Beatrice's Lancaster ZIP Code of 93535, for example, was $87,000. That's down 74% from a $334,500 peak price in 2007.
Even worse was the 92410 ZIP Code in the city of San Bernardino, which covers several older neighborhoods. Its $61,000 April median represents an 84% drop from the peak of $370,000 in 2007.
Prices also tumbled below 1989 levels in neighborhoods in Palmdale, Hemet, Barstow, Desert Hot Springs, Victorville, Highland, Santa Ana and Oxnard, according to DataQuick.
Several other inland communities, including parts of Moreno Valley, Banning and Rialto, had median prices that were only slightly above 1989 levels and below the April 1990 median.
I always thought that Cali-Bangers would take it the hardest. The California Miracle was just that; a mirage, a figment, a dream.
I honestly had no idea where Palmdale was, and come to find it is in the barely commutable quasi-desert outskirts of LA's Northern suburbs, if you can call living 2-3hrs from LA in gridlocked traffic a "suburb".
Sound familiar? Out in the f**king desert? 2-3 hours from any real metro area?
Although I was sort of surprised about Oxnard having fallen below 1989 levels. What the f**k is next? Santa Barbara?
I wouldn't give a handful of my own s**t for a house in cracker-ass Victorville. But Oxnard? I've been there, and it was OK. Ocean's just right there. Oxnard falling below 1989 levels is pretty strange.
And it's happening elsewhere, including the central valley:
Back to the future home pricesReal estate bargain hunters in Stockton can buy property for less than the sticker price of a Cadillac Escalade in today's market.
San Joaquin County real estate listings contain at least two dozen homes priced less than $50,000 and at least one as low as $15,900. These are prices not seen in California since the 1970s, a decade in which home prices climbed from $23,000 to $84,000.
The 1,300-square-foot house is priced at $15,900, a 92 percent discount from what property records show as a $180,000 selling price in August 2005.
My main takeaway on this piece is NOTHING IS SACRED. "Rationality" least of all. Prices staying above some price point that "makes sense" is 100% Grade AAA Bulls**t.
Prices can AND WILL go to INSANE price levels. Prices will slice right through the "Rental Arbitrage Point" like a hot knife through butter. People will start questioning EVERYTHING when all sorts of "logical" arguments start to fall.
You'll soon be able to BUY A HOUSE IN BEND FOR LESS THAN THE RENT. Why?
Because "prices" are always based on CREDIT. Credit is valuing a STREAM OF MONEY, NOT A PILE OF IT. Credit is "If I give you this PILE OF MONEY, you will give me 360 payments of $X EVERY MONTH".
THAT is what's going away. Not for everyone, but for a hell of a lot of people. THAT is the "rational assumption" that will fail. No CREDIT means people will go back to paying for stuff with PILES OF MONEY, not streams. And there ain't much money left.
For now.
I think, FOR NOW, the primary economic theme is DEFLATION.
But our government is altering the natural course of things by throwing TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS at an essentially stagnant economy.
Not today, but soon, there will come a day of STAGFLATION. And it will boggle the mind. Money in this country will be worth nothing.
Houses probably WILL go up at that point. Well, at least compared to holding cash. Better to have your cash in some shack losing 5%/yr, than in the bank losing 15%. A 5% LOSS will actually feel like a good deal. People will treat cash like Ebola.
But not now. But folks, watch the dollar, and watch long government bonds.
The dollar index, after a long plummet from 120 in 2002, fell to as low as 70 last year. It had a dead-cat rally to 90, but has now fallen back to the high 70's. The World is getting nervous about the Obama Jeebus Printing Press.
Similarly, 30 year government bonds, declared DEAD a few years back when the US Gov't was never going to borrow money again (man, that never gets old), has fallen from it recent EUPHORIA DEFLATION FUELED all-time highs over 140 (My God!), clear back to pre-panic prices, around 115.
I would watch this. The dollar has long been signaling an incredible devaluation in our currency. But luckily, the Chinese & others have seen these losses counter-balanced by recent huge gains in treasury prices.
At least till recently. Now the double whammy of declining dollar and treasury pricing could cause a Worldwide credit panic, as the US has to print its way out of bankruptcy.
And that means STAGFLATION.
Portland is finally starting to really hurt in the current RE Depression. There were some good pieces recently.
Stalled Portland luxury development shows depths of recession
(Tom) Moyer's four decades of empire building smacked into a wreck of a recession April 10, when he halted construction on his $170 million Park Avenue West tower.
That morning, Moyer paid 100 workers in the pit spiked with rebar. On Wednesday, the final three workers climbed out of the hole for the last time.
Commercial lending has gone net negative.
I thought that graph was interesting. Lenders have gone net negative on commercial RE, taking more out in payments than they are lending. Again, the whole concept of STREAMS OF MONEY, is dying.
In another piece, we see that residential in Portland is also moribund:
Portland housing market still gloomyPortland-area home owners continued to weather a gloomy market in May, another sign that talk of a economic recovery is premature for the region's housing market.
The Regional Multiple Listing Service reported today that the median price for homes sold in May was $250,000. That's down 13 percent from May 2008 and 17 percent from the August 2007 peak.
But the number of closed sales in May lagged last year by 23 percent. Pending sales, seen as a predictor of future closed sales, was down 7 percent from a year ago.
The inventory of unsold homes -- the time it would take to sell all homes on the market at the current sales paces -- dipped, but remains high at 10 months.
Portland is actually holding up pretty well since it does have... stuff. Unlike Bend, which only has RE, and nothing else.
Folks, don't believe the calls of a "RE-bound", and "we've GOT TO have hit bottom, it can't go any lower!", and such. We've heard both ad nauseum from RE "experts" (Bratton, DuBois, et al) quoted in the Bully going on 2 years.
It CAN go lower, and it WILL go lower.
Look at the price reductions in the cracker-ass middle of the desert in Cali: DOWN 90%+!
I don't think we'll see that, but 75-80% DOWN from the top is VERY POSSIBLE.
I mean, Holy S**t, we had $396,000 MEDIANS for the love of Christ! We're in the middle of ASS NOWHERE!
We'll hit $125K medians. If you DO CARE about capital preservation, and can tolerate renting, DO SO. Do it for 5-10 years. You will be able to make good money in 5-10 years from now.
Work, pile up your money, and shoot your wad in a few years. You'll have to pay cash, or nearly all cash, but there will be good money to be made.
NOT in cap-app. NO. RE isn't going to "go up" in any appreciable manner for 2 decades. BUT you can get a cash-flow positive s**t-shack, that pays you a few hundred every month, and that will KILL what you could get elsewhere.
Finally...Any hbm sightings recently? Is he actually gone? Was the coincidental exodus of he & Brucey part of a Mormon love triangle?
hbm, come back! With you gone, there is no one to twist our nipples! 
Look! In the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! It's hbm! 
hbm, please come back! My leather bras have shrunk to just B-cup! I need you!
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8:46
Drake Park, Bend Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogDrake Park is located on the banks of The Big Deschutes River. Many of the community events in Bend Oregon happen at Drake Park. Sitting on the edge of the Downtown area with historic homes Drake Park is not only a beautiful place but it is also almost the town square of Bend. Often times when [...]
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Book Reviews are coming to The Funki Planet
» DT from da FP
I've got several blogs going now, all for different purposes and am working to organize and prioritize the purposes of each one.
Starting in the next few weeks this blog will become a place to get information about good reads. I was recently asked by Multnomah Publishers (now WaterBrook Press) to be a book reviewer and have started receiving books from Random House.
If you like books but don't know what to buy or get from the library or just want to find some good summer reads be sure to check out this blog for my recommendations.
Coming next week is a review of a great crime drama / murder mystery. Come back to see what I think of the latest book by Mark Mynheir entitles "The Night Watchman."
You may win a copy of your own!
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El Burrito
» Bend Oregon RestaurantEl BurritoMy last visit to El Burrito was ok, not great but just ok. So the Wife and a friend that was with me on the last visit, and I went back to El Burrito to give it another try.The chips and salsa arrive at the table immediately and I was happy as I remembered them being quite good. Normally I don't like to complain about a freebee like chips and salsa but these weren't good. The chips were
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16:41
Local Economy Continues To Crater--UE Up To 17%
» Juniper Ridge InfoQuick post of the harsh numbers that just came out:
Bend MSA
Unemployment, unadjusted, March, 2009: 17%
Unemployment, unadjusted, March, 2008: 7.8%
Deschutes County:
Notices of Default, year to date through April 17th, 2009: 1037
Notices of Default, year to date through April 17th, 2008: 395
Notices of Default, all of 2007: 590
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20:48
TIME, Ice and Equilibrium
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesI think my editor at TIME Magazine has some sort of special radar. I may not talk to her for eons, but she seems to know exactly when I'm either gone on vacation, or when I'm about to leave on vacation. Point in case: last week, I was scrambling to get my work organized in order to leave on a 10 day trip to California. Tuesday was a day of solid meetings, and I had a 2-hour shoot scheduled for
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7:27
Bend: The Mass Exodus Has Begun.
» Bend Bubble 2Downtown seems to have a grip on Bendites. Everyone thinks that if you have a spot downtown, you can't fail. Despite all evidence to the contrary, despite a sea of failures.
See who's moving in
“It is exactly the same food, same menu and the same staff — it’s just a new location,” said Cheri Helt, co-owner of Zydeco. “We are excited to be a part of downtown.”
“Visitors are absolutely going to come,” La Placa said. “The new downtown restaurants are very promising and positive news for our tourism industry and locals.”
The new restaurants could re-energize downtown, said Carin Cameron, owner of Cork, a fine-dining restaurant on Oregon Avenue that opened in 2001.
Always someone who believes They Are Special. "I'll make it, because I am better than the rest."
Sheeps to slaughter. Thanks Costa. Mission accomplished.
I have to mention again, one of the Bubbleliscious Busts of the week: Mountain Comfort.
Any idiot should have seen this coming. But as I am often told, I am not any idiot.
Mountain Comfort was one of those things that just had no exposure to any other time, except the Best of Times. They were never exposed to anything except a parabolic economy.
Things didn't just go well, while Mountain Comfort was alive, they were meteoric.
And there are so many places like that in Bend. All the lost restaurants, Merenda, deep, Bluefish, et al. But it goes far beyond that.
All the Cook-It-Yourself franchises. 75% of the area homebuilders. Most of the RE industry infrastructure. The Big Box retailers. Auto row.
It was really most of Bend. I know there are some long timers. Like the Porsche dealer.
They were here forever before the Boom. Then the Boom. Then they remade themselves in the image of the Boom. Same with the Mercedes dealer.
Same with almost everyone. Except maybe Dunc.
Everybody bought it.
You don't have to buy the boom to own it. You just have to "refi".
You just have to alter your plans for bigger & better things. Like Mountain Comfort.
They threw millions into their facility during the parabola. They didn't build, they just refi'd up.
Everyone looks at who built, but the refier's built as well.
There was huge capacity added by entrants, but there were a huge percentage that just traded up, or they feared they'd be left behind.
Look around. This whole town traded up. It's FULL of Mountain Comforts.
I found the Job Loss on Slate chart Dunc mentioned.
Very cool, and illustrates the heinous & sudden change in this countries economy. Millions of jobs have been lost.
And we found out that Oregon has taken it's rightful place on the economic extremes.
Odd dynamic propels Oregon jobless rate to No. 2
Layoffs alone don't account for Oregon's dubious distinction as the state with the nation's second highest jobless rate behind Michigan.Instead of giving up or leaving, as they're doing in every other high-unemployment state, more people in Oregon are seeking work. Retirees, nonworking spouses and others are job-hunting alongside laid-off workers, together driving the state's unemployment rate in March to a 12.1 percent historic high.
Oregon business news has become a daily drumbeat of layoffs and bankruptcies, yet it's difficult even for experts to fathom how joblessness here could approach levels of Michigan, a state devastated by the auto industry's meltdown. Michigan, with 12.6 percent unemployment in March, sees its labor force shrink as job seekers give up and as laid-off workers move away.
Economists can't entirely explain why Oregon bucks the same trend of worker-exodus in Nevada, California, Indiana and the Carolinas.
"I'm left scratching my head about why is that labor-force growth going up," says Tom Potiowsky, Oregon government's chief economist. "Are we going to see that level off? That's my expectation."
Potiowsky also expects Oregon's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to keep climbing, perhaps even overtaking Michigan to become worst in the nation. Oregon's rate rose in March by 1.4 percentage points, the nation's largest increase that month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Fifty-eight thousand more Oregonians entered the labor force during the year ending in March. The state lost 77,000 jobs during the same period. The 3 percent labor-force increase combined with a 4.2 percent employment decrease to produce the jobless rate equaled only once before, in November 1982.
In-migration accounted for less than 1.2 percent growth in Oregon's labor force, meaning most of the new entrants to the labor force were current residents. Michigan, by contrast, is suffering a brain drain as skilled, unemployed workers bail out.
"In some cases they've decided to move where they like to vacation," says Patrick Anderson, of Anderson Economic Group in East Lansing, Mich. "Oregon might be one of the beneficiaries."
Some Michigan citizens have lost hope, Anderson says, due to the auto industry's decline, the state's fiscal troubles and statements by former President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama that, he feels, have devastated consumer confidence in U.S.-made vehicles. Anderson predicts Michigan's jobless rate will rise higher.
"The president has essentially put Chrysler on a 30-day deathwatch that's going to cause a string of bankruptcies across the entire country, including Oregon," says Anderson, who expects many U.S. car dealerships to fold.
The recession is hitting the West especially hard, pushing regional unemployment to 9.8 percent in March, compared with 9 percent in the Midwest. The national jobless rate was 8.5 percent.
Oregon has lost major employers recently such as Monaco Coach and Joe's Sports, Outdoors & More. Managers of SpectraWatt, an Intel spinoff founded in Oregon to make solar cells, found superior government incentives in New York. Other big Oregon employers are cutting pay and laying off workers.
Instead of getting discouraged, however, many Oregonians are writing resumes. More Oregon college graduates are staying in state to job hunt.
"Generally when you get these economic downturns, you would expect people to exit the labor force, not enter it," says Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist. He suspects out-of-state retirees who moved to Bend and elsewhere in recent years could be partly responsible.
"Maybe it's because we attracted so many equity refugees," Duy says, "people that sold their homes in California for some ridiculous amount of money and moved to Oregon expecting to never have to work again."
One solution, says Duy, who admits it's harsh: a free one-way bus ticket out of state, for anyone who wants one.
This is just classic. What created prosperity on the way up, is now strangling us on the way down: Cali-Bangers.
People who flocked here with equity, traded up paying half down, a HUGE cushion, never going to work another day in their lives.
Until houses got cut in half.
Now they all need to work again.
Duy says give them free bus tickets OUT OF TOWN. COVA is paying millions to get them to come.
A House Divided.
Oregon will break your heart. Bend will give you the f**king AIDS.
We've had a nice little reprieve from the downward onslaught of late. In fact, we've had the best 6 week run in the markets since 1938.
But don't get comfy. The tax refunds will soon be spent, the stimulus dollars will be revealed as just another AIG boondoggle, and Oh Yes... the foreclosure moratorium is coming to a halt:
US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End
REAL ESTATE, MORTGAGES, ECONOMY, FORECLOSURES
Reuters
16 Apr 2009 | 05:09 AM ET
U.S. foreclosure activity leaped 46 percent in March from a year earlier, hitting a record high as programs stunting the torrid pace of failing mortgages expired, RealtyTrac reported on Thursday.
A temporary freeze on foreclosures by major banks and government-controlled home finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ended before President Barack Obama's massive housing stimulus, unveiled on March 6, could take root.
Filings, which include notice of default, auction sale or bank repossession, jumped 17 percent in March from February. Filings for the quarter also marked a record high, jumping 24 percent from the same period a year ago.
The March and first-quarter totals were the highest since RealtyTrac began tracking them in January 2005, even as bank repossessions declined. One in every 159 U.S. households with mortgages got a foreclosure filing in the first three months of this year, RealtyTrac said.
Filings were reported on more than 803,000 properties in the quarter. California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Illinois accounted for nearly 60 percent of U.S. foreclosure activity in the first quarter, with a combined 479,516 properties receiving filings.
In the transition from industry freeze to new government rescues, the foreclosure filing floodgates reopened. After the moratoriums ceased, "we saw an onslaught of notices of default, which is the first stage of foreclosure," Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, said in an interview.
The rise in filings suggests a backlog had built up due to the moratoriums. The success of the Obama mortgage bailout may not be seen until the autumn, Sharga added. Activity should peak near year-end. "
But unfortunately, these well-intentioned delays in the processing might have the unintended consequence of extending the housing downturn," and further dragging down home prices, he said. "We still anticipate that we'll see upward of 3 million households receive a foreclosure notice this year, up from 2.4 million last year," Sharga said.
For all of 2005, the last year before the foreclosure spike started in earnest, RealtyTrac reported about 800,000 filings. Loan servicers are overwhelmed with the volume of failing home loans and many are understaffed to handle modifications.
One national servicer that foreclosed on 2,000 properties in 2006 handled about 21,000 the next year with similar staffing levels, Sharga said. The servicer expects a 50 percent spike in 2008, without approval to increase staff.
Unemployment May Trump Bargain Hunting
Nevada, Arizona and California had the highest foreclosure rates in the first quarter. Homes prices and sales soared in these states during the boom years earlier this decade, and now suffer the biggest losses on overbuilding and abandoned investment units.
Nevada led the ranks in the quarter, with one of every 27 households with loans getting a filing, more than five times the national average.
Everyday I hear people who are deciding to Walk Away and Not Pay. U-Haul is the only growth industry I see.
And you watch, the Mass Exodus of Bend is about to go into high gear. School's over, and I'll wager we are going to see the first innings of an outmigration the likes of which this place has never seen.
You can have 16%+ unemployment and not hemorrhage population. Crook & Jeff counties will be even worse.
They'll start talking about a rebound soon, but nature hates a vacuum, and homes will rush in to fill the void. The plummet in Bend prices will continue unabated.
But even so, now is basically the only time you can sell. And you have to want to sell.
Realtors are finally waking up to the New Reality, and that reality doesn't involve overpriced listings that sap their valuable resources.
You need to wake up & realize that if you bought in the past 5 years, you will lose.
If you bought in the 5 years preceding that, you might do little better than break even.
If you bought before that, simply realize that your gains will be muted, not astronomic like you thought they'd be 3 years ago.
That's the New Bend. A place where dreams are crushed.
Finally I want to go out with a little excerpt from The Economist.
One of heresy-ridden ideas I put out about 18 months ago was that home-ownership (The American Dream) would become the AmeriKKKan Nightmare.
People would actually look down on home ownership. Home owners would be seen as The Inferior Race. Not Renters.
Renters are just losing their monthly payment. Owners are losing everything.
Shelter, or burden?
Apr 16th 2009
The social benefits of home ownership look more modest than they did and the economic costs much higher
IN A scene from the film “It’s a Wonderful Life”, a happy couple is about to enter their new home. Jimmy Stewart, whose firm has sold them the mortgage, reflects that there is “a fundamental urge…for a man to have his own roof, walls and fireplace.” He offers them bread, salt and wine so “joy and prosperity may reign for ever”. That embodies the Anglo-Saxon world’s attitude to home ownership. Owning your own roof, walls and fireplace, it is thought, is good for householders because it helps them accumulate wealth. It is good for the economy because it encourages people to save.
And it is good for society because homeowners invest more in their neighbourhoods, engage more in civic activities and encourage their children to do better at school than do renters. Home ownership, in short, benefits everyone—not just the homeowner—and the more there is of it, the better.
Which is why it is usually encouraged by the government. In America, Ireland and Spain, homeowners can deduct mortgage-interest payments from taxable income. Yet the worldwide crash was bound up in this supposed miracle of social policy.
The disaster began with defaults on American subprime mortgages, a financial instrument designed to spread home ownership among the poor.
It gathered pace after the failures of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-sponsored enterprises that provide cheap home loans. As a result, the home-ownership rate in America has fallen for four years, the first time that has happened in a quarter of a century.
In 2008, 2.3m families lost their homes or faced foreclosure—double the average before the crisis—reducing the home-ownership rate from 69% in 2004 to 67.5% at the end of 2008. The number of owner-occupied dwellings also slipped in Britain in 2007-08 for the first time since the 1950s.
Subsidised castles
So attempts to expand home ownership have contributed to the wider economic crisis without succeeding in their own terms. How does that affect the arguments for supporting home ownership? Should it still be deemed a public good?
No, say several economists and commentators. “Given the way US policy favours owning over renting,” writes Paul Krugman, 2008’s Nobel laureate in economics, “you can make a good case that America already has too many homeowners.” Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard University, talks about “the madness of encouraging Americans to bet everything on housing”.
So far, policymakers are unmoved. In mid-February Barack Obama proposed a $275 billion plan to support America’s housing market. Outside the Anglo-Saxon world Nicolas Sarkozy, who campaigned for the presidency to turn France into a property-owning democracy, has expanded zero-interest housing loans for the poor.
The main economic argument for home ownership is that, in the words of Thomas Shapiro of Brandeis University, “it is by far the single most important way families accumulate wealth”. This argument now looks as weak as house prices. In Britain prices have fallen 21% since their peak in October 2007. Prices in America have fallen more slowly but further, down 30% since their peak in mid-2006 (see chart 1).
This has reduced the total value of the country’s housing stock from over $22 trillion in 2007 to $19 trillion at the end of 2008. In the past few weeks, housing markets on both sides of the Atlantic have seen signs of life, but there is every chance that prices have further to fall before they finally reach their low.
The collapse in house prices matters most directly to two overlapping groups: those who bought property at the peak of the market and now face “negative equity”; and those (in America) who took out subprime mortgages.
Roughly 10m Americans are in negative equity—ie, the cost of their mortgage exceeds the value of their home. In Britain about 3% of households are in negative equity. For homeowners, negative equity makes houses more like a trap than a piggy bank.
Those who cannot meet their payments lose their house, their savings and (in America, usually) their credit rating for seven years. The other area of concentrated distress is subprime mortgages, which increased their share of the American mortgage market from 7% in 2001 to over 20% in 2006.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate was 22% in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with only 5% for prime loans. Many people have concluded that, in Mr Krugman’s words, “home ownership isn’t for everyone.” However, a study by the Centre for Community Capital, part of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, casts some doubt on that conclusion.
It compared a group of people who took out subprime loans with a group of borrowers from the Community Advantage Programme (CAP), a government-backed scheme that lends to the sort of people who might have had a subprime mortgage. The default rate for CAP borrowers was only a quarter what it was for subprime mortgage holders, even though the incomes and backgrounds of borrowers were similar.
Since the real problem lay partly in the mortgages, rather than the borrowers, this suggests the subprime crisis was a financial-market mess, as well as a housing one. Does that also imply that home ownership has the economic benefits that its proponents claim? Two pieces of evidence seem to support such a view.
The first is that housing has fared better in the crisis than other assets. Share prices are around 50% below their peaks in many countries, so compared with shareowners, homeowners have not done badly. However, home ownership in a downturn has one big disadvantage: most people buy shares outright but homes on margin (ie, they put down a small stake, if anything).
If share prices fall by 10%, you lose 10%; if house prices fall by 10%, you may lose your entire savings. The value of American homeowners’ equity in their own houses has slumped from a peak of $12.5 trillion in 2005 to just $8.5 trillion at the end of 2008. This undermines one claim that homeowning is economically beneficial. The other piece of evidence for home ownership’s benefits is that the house-price fall has so far spared most existing homeowners from absolute losses.
In America, for example, house prices have fallen back only to where they were in 2004. There were roughly 29m house sales in the United States between 2004 and 2007, compared with 115m households, and anyone who bought before then is probably sitting on a nominal profit.
However, as Harvard University’s Martin Feldstein points out, if house prices rise, people feel richer and borrow and spend more. If they feel poorer, they may cut back even if the price of their house has not fallen below what they paid for it. Subsidies to home ownership have thus increased economic volatility.
They boosted consumption, as homeowners used their houses as collateral to finance consumption or investment. In America mortgage-equity withdrawals reached $9 trillion between 1997 and 2006—equal to more than 90% of disposable income in 2006. This gave homeowners more to spend in the good times but less in bad ones. In Britain home-equity withdrawals added the equivalent of 3% of post-tax income to households in the fourth quarter of 2007 but subtracted 3% a year later.
So changes to house prices aggravate the economic cycle. Recent research by the IMF finds that a quarter of the 100-odd recessions since 1960 have been associated with house-price busts and that these contractions “are deeper and last longer than other recessions do”. Subsidies to home ownership have also weakened financial services.
They encouraged more people to buy houses (which was the point), but, logically enough, also encouraged lenders to take greater risks with housing. This was fine while house prices were rising, but the fall exposed how vulnerable banks’ balance sheets had become. Moreover, if public policy aims to create wealth, there are other ways of doing it.
People could invest their savings in the stockmarket and rent their homes, for example. Had they done so in the past two years, they would have done worse than homeowners. But for three decades before that, equity prices easily outstripped property prices (see chart 2), so in the long run equities have been a better bet than houses. (Admittedly, this strips out the effects of share dividends and imputed rents, which favour property.)
Housing suffers from two further weaknesses as an investment. It sucks up disproportionately large amounts of money, falling foul of the idea that investors should diversify: in America the equity tied up in houses accounts for 45% of the net worth of the average householder.
And it is illiquid. If you need to raise money, you cannot sell a room or two, whereas you can always sell a few shares. It is hard to argue houses are the best asset for building wealth. “Perhaps the most compelling argument for housing as a means of wealth accumulation”, argues Richard Green of the University of Southern California, “is that it gives households a default mechanism for savings.”
Because people have to pay off a mortgage, they increase their home equity and save more than they otherwise would. This is indeed a strong argument: social-science research finds that people save more if they do so automatically rather than having to choose to set something aside every month.
Yet there are other ways to create “default savings”, such as companies offering automatic deductions to retirement plans. In any case, some of the financial snake oil peddled at the height of the housing bubble was bad for saving.
Subprime, interest-only and other kinds of mortgage instruments allowed people to buy their homes without a down-payment and without building up equity. “Negative amortisation” (neg-am) mortgages even let people pay only part of their interest each month and to add the rest to the principal, increasing their debt, not their savings. Home-equity loans had the same effect.
Where the heart is
The main arguments for home ownership, though, are not primarily economic, but social. Home ownership, argue those who want to expand it, benefits society because it encourages stable, more law-abiding communities; it makes people more likely to vote in local elections and join clubs; and it benefits future generations because, it turns out, the children of homeowners do better at school and have fewer behavioural problems than children of renters.
On the face of it, the evidence for these claims is strong. In America homeowners are less likely to move than renters, so areas with a lot of homeowners are more stable. According to the 2007 American Housing Survey, homeowners stay where they are for about nine years whereas renters move every two.
More stable neighbourhoods are more law-abiding. According to a study of New York City, the home-ownership rate was second only to income as an explanation for different crime rates.
The link between ownership and political participation is stronger still. In America in the early 1990s, 69% of homeowners voted, compared with only 44% of renters. Homeowners are more likely to know who their representatives are; more likely to support local causes or parent-teacher associations and (this being America) more likely to go to church.
Perhaps the most surprising link is between ownership and children. One study in America found that, in 2000, the mathematics scores of the children of homeowners were 9% higher than those of renters’ children; reading levels were 7% higher.
This had nothing to do with income: the research controlled for that. In another study homeowners’ children were 25% more likely to graduate from high school and more than twice as likely to go to university. Their teenage daughters were also less likely to become pregnant.
These studies, though, are not the last word. They find a link between children’s education and homeowning. But is this because, as some suggest, home ownership requires parents to possess managerial or financial skills that they pass on to their children? Or is it because the people with those skills help their children at school and also buy houses? No one knows.
Nor is it certain that owners always take better care of their neighbourhoods than renters do. Some studies claim that the effect in fact depends on a few public-spirited people willing to set an example. Renters can be public-spirited too. In America areas with lots of renters tend to be transient because the typical rental period is short.
In Germany, though, people rent for years. Stable neighbourhoods and widespread home ownership can go together but do not need to. As Bill Rohe of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill puts it, “evidence regarding the societal benefits of home ownership is highly conjectural.” Still, on balance, home ownership gives people a stake in the state of their surroundings.
Thriving streets increase the value of properties, giving owners incentives to improve them further. Renters get no such benefit; they may even have to pay more if the neighbourhood improves. Whether stability is such a good thing in a downturn, though, is a different matter.
A decade ago Andrew Oswald of Warwick University argued that owning your own home makes you more reluctant to move, so labour markets tend to become more rigid as home ownership increases. He claimed that increases in the level of home ownership (though not necessarily the level itself) are associated with rises in unemployment. Ireland, Greece and Spain all saw large increases in home ownership in the 1980s and 1990s, and had relatively high unemployment.
America and Switzerland had stable ownership rates, and escaped the long-term rise in joblessness. His argument remains controversial. Critics point out that many things other than home ownership might prevent people from moving (children’s schools, friends and so on).
Anyway, liquid housing markets should make it possible for people to move, if they want to. It is also possible that, even if people were trapped in distressed areas, jobs should move there to take advantage of the willingness of homeowners to accept lower wages. All that said, Mr Oswald’s arguments seem especially powerful at the moment.
The recession in America is bearing down most heavily on two groups of states: Florida, California and Nevada, which had the largest house-building booms in the 1990s; and Michigan, New Hampshire, Delaware, West Virginia and Mississippi, which have the highest home-ownership rates.
People are not, in fact, moving as frequently as they used to: the share of those moving house in 2007-08—11.9% of the population—was the lowest since records began. So labour markets look less flexible than they were.
Negative equity exacerbates immobility because people are reluctant to move if it means selling at a loss. Researchers at the Wharton School reckon that people in negative equity are only half as likely to move as those who are not.
In all these ways, high home ownership may prolong and deepen a recession. The problem remains of how to weigh the economic costs against the social benefits of home ownership.
There can be no easy judgment about this but the recent rise and fall of house prices suggests both that the costs are greater and the benefits smaller than once thought. If owning were such a boon, you would expect neighbourhoods with lots of owners to have done better than those with lots of renters during the boom years.
That does not seem to have happened. What has happened, though, is that above a certain level, foreclosures have done a lot of damage during the bad years. Recent studies of New York and Cleveland find that, if lenders foreclose on 3-4% of properties in an area, local prices fall even faster and further than average. Rows of For Sale signs almost certainly have the same effect in Britain.
In other words, ownership can sometimes be worse for a neighbourhood than renting. A shelter—for your money Lastly, and perversely, the decade of obsession with expanding home ownership may actually have reduced neighbourhood stability.
Nicolas Retsinas, the director of the Joint Centre for Housing Studies at Harvard University, suggests that, until the crash in 2008, Americans were coming to see their homes as financial investments rather than as places to live.
That is true in other countries. Neg-am mortgages in America and buy-to-rent arrangements in Britain were based on the assumption that houses were primarily investments. As a result, people seem to have started to buy and sell homes more frequently.
Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the number of new houses sold almost doubled in America, from just over 600,000 to over 1.2m in 2006. Perhaps that made labour markets more mobile, but it was certainly not what policymakers were aiming for when they set out to increase home ownership.
Their efforts in the past few years seem to have weakened, though not destroyed, the best arguments for treating home ownership as something to be encouraged: that it increases people’s savings and creates better neighbourhoods for everyone. But perhaps you should not be surprised by that.
As Adam Smith wrote in “The Wealth of Nations” two centuries ago, “a dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitants.”
You watch. Bend, and the USA in general, is becoming a serfdom. A smaller & smaller number of owners.
Great for those miniscule numbers on top, and a nightmare for the rest. No middle class. Just serf's working to pay debts, forever.
The bounce is temporary. We'll find out, just like GM, that the debts are coming due. Again. And put as many debt reprieves in the pipe as you want, they will simply come due again, and again.
This town is 100% doomed. If you trade up to downtown, you will fail. The Financial Black Plague is here.
Save, don't spend. List your house today for 30% less than you think it's worth. Or better, what your hungry Realtor thinks it's worth. I said this 1 year ago, and no one believed it.
Well, here we are. Again. It'll be even worse next year. 16%+ unemployment ensures that there will soon be NO ONE left to buy homes here at the end of this Summer. NO ONE.
"It's tough out there... time to tighten my belt!"
Momma Be MILFin!
Made & Installed In Bend Oregon!
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High Desert Art Gallery Bend Oregon: Brick n' Mortar at the Oxford Hotel
» High Desert Gallery of Central OregonIt's time for a High Desert Gallery Construction Update!
The Oxford Hotel, a seven story full service boutique hotel in Downtown Bend Oregon is taking shape and will have approximately 56 large suites, many with balconies that overlook downtown. High Desert Gallery will occupy nearly 2000 square feet on the retail ground floor and be one of two retail establishments. Convenient parking for the gallery and hotel will be provided on street and in the city parking structure adjacent to the hotel.
The new Oxford Hotel, a Baney Corporation property, is being built at 10 NW Minnesota Street on the corner of Lava near Bond Street. Across the street is Staccato at the Firehall and one of my favorite coffee shops, Thump Coffee. Thump hosts monthly artist exhibitions and participates in First Friday Art Walk. Stop in next time you are in the area, grab a coffee and scone and watch the High Desert Gallery at the Oxford Hotel take shape.
Although the construction schedule isn't finalized and due to the complexity of the project we can't provide an exact open date but we do plan on being open in the Summer of 2009. Stay tuned for more information and remember we provide fine art sales and full custom picture framing services in our Sisters and Redmond Oregon art galleries. Don't miss out on our great Custom Framing promotion in our Redmond Gallery that is offered through March. For location and directions please visit: Find High Desert Gallery.
About High Desert Gallery: High Desert Gallery & Custom Framing, The Art & Soul of Central Oregon™ is an award winning fine art and custom picture framing gallery with retail locations in Bend, Oregon (Open Summer 2009), Redmond and Sisters Oregon specializing in Central Oregon Artists & Beyond™ and Stellar Custom Framing. High Desert Gallery honored in 2005, 2006 and 2007 by Decor Magazine as a "Top 100 Art and Framing Gallery in America" and voted "Best Art Gallery" in Redmond, Oregon (2006, 2007 & 2008) and Sisters, Oregon (2005, 2006, & 2008). International Framing Awards earned by High Desert Gallery include First Place and Top Honors in the Professional Picture Framing Association (PPFA) 2007-2008 International Open Framing Competition and Third Place in the Professional Picture Framing Association 2008-2009 International Print Framing Competition. For more information please visit: www.highdesertgallery.com or call toll free 1-866-549-6250. The Art & Soul of Central Oregon™ and Central Oregon Artists & Beyond™ are trademarks of High Desert Gallery & Custom Framing of Central Oregon.
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18:52
On Book Publishing
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesBook publishing can sometimes be such a sluggish venture. In this impatient age of instant gratification - fueled by the net, Facebook, Myspace and, yes, blogging - the thought of selling an image for a project that's not going to come into existence until 6 or 8 months later, can be a trying thing. Luckily, I have plenty of experience in the field, having worked for four years in PR and
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Updated Numbers On Developer Funding Of Bend Council Members Campaigns
» Juniper Ridge InfoOrestar, the database that tracks political campaign financing in Oregon, has campaign finance numbers from through and after the election now. I have queried the numbers to track the investment local development interests, specifically the Central Oregon Association of Realtors (COAR) and the Central Oregon Builders Association (through their PAC Central Oregonians for Affordable Housing aka COAH) have made in the election of new Bend City Council members Mayor Kathie Eckman, Tom Greene (who is also the President of COAR), and Jeff Eager. These numbers are now sorted, summed, and available in several published Google spreadsheets linked below.
As Ms. Eckman made a very public and determined successful effort to become Mayor and so have some control of the proceedings, along with the fact that the three new members plus Councilor Mark Capell made a surprise choice for a new Councilor to replace new State Senator Chris Telfer by picking Oran Teater in a last minute "emergency meeting" that had no public notice and little media notice on a Friday evening, the weight of any special interests in their campaigns is worthy of public notice.
These three new councilors held a invitation-only meeting with local business interests before they were sworn in. And as recently as Tuesday, Feb. 17, the City Council held an all day meeting discussing goals with absolutely no public notice, and what appears to be no minutes, with a single media person in attendance, Erin Golden of the Bend Bulletin. This all-day Council meeting is not listed even now on the City web site, including the list of MP3 recordings, although this list does have the recordings of the scheduled work and regular Council sessions held the next day, Wednesday, Feb. 18th.
We may never see any minutes or hear any recordings of this, the first meeting of the Council after the very contentious emergency meeting to install Mr. Teater on the Council, a meeting which was called "crap" by Councilor Jim Clinton. The only public record of the Feb. 17th meeting is "Councilors set goals, economic strategies" behind the pay firewall on the Bend Bulletin web site. An excerpt from this Bulletin article:"In an all-day meeting Tuesday, the council outlined its goals for the next several months, noting both the projects it would like to see completed by 2010 and those that might have to wait because of the ongoing economic slowdown. Among the ideas put on the city’s list: maintaining or building up Bend’s reserve funds, assembling an advisory board for Mirror Pond, developing a long-term funding solution for Bend Area Transit and annexing the airport into the city limits to help boost economic development. Set aside, at least for the near future, were other projects, including work on the Central Area Plan, which would provide a framework for downtown Bend and other areas in the central part of the city....
The meeting was the council’s first since it appointed former councilor and mayor Oran Teater to fill an open seat on Feb. 6. Teater’s last-minute appointment came after a month of tension between the other six council members, who were split over the appointment of Kathie Eckman as the city’s mayor and over the process of filling the seat left open when Chris Telfer stepped down in January to join the state Senate.
...Before moving on to the goal-setting discussion, the council took more than an hour to address the divisions that emerged over the past several weeks. During the conversation, some councilors said they were disappointed with how Teater’s appointment had played out, but were ready to move forward.
“I agreed to run again for the City Council because I believe I can do a good job and I believe people supported me for that,” Eckman said. “But I feel like my character has been called into question, and I am extremely disappointed because it’s been on such a public level.”
Others, however, said it will take more time for council members to begin to trust each other...."
There is an obvious public interest in the relationships between those that decide how to spend our tax dollars, whom to hire, and what to zone. Holding such an unnoticed and unrecorded meeting is against the public meeting laws of Oregon. This growing tendency to leave the public out of the process is not in the best interests of the City of Bend. Unfortunately, the only recourse available to citizens of Bend is at the ballot box every other year, or by filing a costly lawsuit in Circuit Court.
Here are those campaign financing numbers with short summaries and links to the entire funding lists:
Mayor Kathie Eckman Contributions
TOTAL $38,484.47
Self funding $8,538.76
COAH/COAR $17,671.34
Councilor Tom Greene Contributions
Total $27,729.34
COAH/COAR $16,292.34
Councilor Jeff Eager Contributions
TOTAL $40,359.34
COAH/COAR $20,671.34
Also, here are details of funding and spending by our local development PACs:
COAH Funding
TOTAL $115,263.40
Miscellaneous Cash Contributions $100 and under TOTAL $27,350.00
Central Oregon Builders Association TOTAL $79,106.92
COAH Spending
TOTAL $152K
COAR Funding
TOTAL $37,102.80
All but $100 anonymous
COAR Spending
TOTAL $26,259.26
And a new one I noted, the Bend Business PAC:
BBPAC Funding
TOTAL $8,065.00
Bulletin in-kind $4000
BB PAC Spending
NOTE: $1625 to Eckman, Greene, and Eager is shown by the council members filings but not shown in the BB PAC filings. Filings by unelected candidate Don Leonard also show $1625 in contributions by the BB PAC
It is interesting to see our only local daily paper, the Bend Bulletin, has decided to fund some candidates in the City Council race as well as reporting on them. This would seem to be a major ethical violation by the elephant of local journalism. That's an interesting and somewhat troubling juxtaposition-our only daily newspaper funds a local political PAC that backs several candidates, editorializes for electing all but one of them before the election. It then editorialized for the last of the four, Don Leonard, to be appointed to fill the vacancy after the election--not once, not twice, but three times. In fact, if you read the pre-election editorial on the Bulletin's preferred candidates, you see that even before the election the Bulletin stated
And this was done without any acknowledgment of the Bulletin's financial interest in the election."Clinton’s opponent, Don Leonard, is one of the better candidates in the race. He has the misfortune of running against Clinton. Not to worry, though. Should Telfer win her Senate race, her seat will soon become available. We hope Leonard applies."
That's our Bulletin. And these are facts that need much wider knowledge in our currently financially challenged little city.
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Hack Bend on Twitter (now crunchier!)
» Hack BendToday I created a Twitter Hack Bend account to supplement this blog, and to post bits and pieces of Bend-related things to that I may or may not also cover in more detail here.
What (finally) prompted me to do this was this KATU article my wife found about how the Portland (Oregon) Visitor Center is on Twitter, and using a hashtag to monitor questions and post answers about Portland.
So I figured it'd be easy enough to do the same thing, so I'm totally stealing their concept and will tag posts with the hashtag #inbend. And I'll try to be good and monitor that hashtag for questions or chat or whatever.
So follow Hack Bend on Twitter, and let's see where this goes.
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6:46
Barack "100 cents on the Dollar" Obama Will Save Us All
» Bend Bubble 2Sometimes it's good to remember how something Bad Got Started, so you can figure out how to stop it.
At some point, back in the 70's (80's?, 60's?), we started getting little applications in the mail. It was actually the norm to have only one credit card way back when, like it was the norm to have 1 TV or 1 car or 1 house.
Then people started applying for another. And things still seemed OK. You could get more stuff, and paying 3% on 2 cards with $1,000/ea was not the end of the World. It was actually nice, you didn't have such a rigid connection between earning & spending. People could bridge the gap on the odd occasion when they actually lost their job.
But saving became a little less important. And there was this strange creeping feeling that we weren't spending real money. I got my first credit card when I was fairly young, and I certainly remember that feeling.
Pretty soon though, the urge to save pretty much went away. The urge to spend increased with each new application filled out, and new plastic arriving in the mail became something of an expected ritual. In fact, those applications started to feel like income.
And things NEVER got worse because of this. People seemed happier. In fact a whole generation of people base their happiness on consumption. They don't even know it. I'll show an illustration in a bit.
So things seemed to get eternally better. More jobs. More income. More stuff. Every indulgence indulged, every craving sated.
Then, round about 5-10 years ago this credit-fueled industrial complex began engaging in some practices that seemed great, but they ultimately sowed the seeds of economic destruction:- We started putting unqualified borrowers in homes.
- We started accepting nothing down on a home.
- We started lying to put them in a home.
See, we did this with those credit card app's, right? Sure! Who hasn't hit hard times, got a CC app, and lied to get one, and bridge the gap? Or, maybe you just wanted another card, because you could get money at near 0%, and if you inflated your income, you'll be eligible for a buttload of extra cards, right? And the credit card companies NEVER CHECKED!
It was become standard issue to LIE on credit applications. So when they began Securitizing Mortgage Loans, it became OK TO LIE. Why not? They were going to sell the loan to someone, who was going to sell it again, ad nauseum. And this scheme was working out great! Everyone got a little slice of the action, and foreclosures, price declines, joblessness, and other such nasties had Never Been A Problem Before.
So we had historical evidence on our side. We had a booming economy on our side. We had rock-bottom defaults validating these practices. Everything was peachy.
So what did we have, circa 2005-2006? We had an incredible over-abundance of homes. An overabundance of cars. Overabundance of clothing, computers, food, carpet, factories, businesses. An over-abundance of JOBS. Yes. Most of the jobs created in the 5-10 years prior to The Boom, are artificial. They really are not meant to be.
The credit was not meant to be. The consuming was not meant to be. So the jobs & businesses behind them are not meant to be. We've had quite artificially low unemployment for a good decade. Go to Wal-Mart: Look at the troglodytes working & shopping there; those people should be kept in trailer parks, away from the rest of humanity.
And Yes,I went there yesterday. And on a Sat afternoon, I have never seen the parking lot so empty. EVER.
So lots of the stuff lying around you right now, is probably from a place whose existence is predicated on demand about 30% higher than it is right now.
So the upshot is that demand & spending need to crash for equilibrium to be reached. Unemployment goes way up. Lots of factories shut down. Demand just goes away, and simple economics of supply & demand reassert themselves, and prices fall.
As I said Long Long Ago: The only way to pay off debts is to sell stuff or make more money.
The "make more money" option is being lost at a clip of about 50,000 jobs/day. That leaves Selling Stuff.
Selling houses. Selling toys. Selling cars. Selling computers. Selling everything. And not just re-selling house, or re-selling computers: Builders have crushing debts & need to build & sell more homes. Dell has factory capacity that costs them when idle. Airlines. Flea markets. Garage sales. GM. Banks. Home sellers. All have product that must go.
We have a FLOOD of stuff from ALL CORNERS... and no one can buy it.
So along comes The Stimulus Package. That'll set it right... right?
Well, the first slug of the bank bailout billions is out there, and guess what? The Banks Are Not Loaning. Gee, I wonder Why?
Oh....right, right, right, right, right. Cuz they have TRILLIONS in bad loans on their books. Now they can do one of a few things.
They can go into the Free Market and SELL THESE LOANS, and realize essentially that they are insolvent. The banking system in the USA is technically INSOLVENT RIGHT NOW. If they realized the losses, the CEO-pay gravy train is over & Disgraced Idiot Era begins. Is it any wonder they are not doing this?
And really, why do this, when Obama, Our Lord & Savior, Has Promised that he'll Make It Right.
Father Barack "100 Cents on the Dollar" Obama
This brings up Option 2: Wait to be bailed out. Wait for TARP money that you can stick in the vault. Don't even have to worry about bad loans, or realizing the losses, cuz Barack gonna make it all all right.
"We gonna get that TARP money!"
So the bailout, and it's promise of making us all whole again, has actually exacerbated & prolonged the problem. Every bank in the country is waiting to accept & BANK their piece of the trillions. Ain't gonna lend it, that's for damn sure. Fool me once...
So we are caught in a deflationary spiral. Lots of people are looking out the Side Window, and telling us, "NO! We're Not In A Depression! Now Deflation seems to precede, cause & exacerbate a Depression, but we ain't in a Depression. Look. Out the side window. We're just in a rapidly deteriorating Deflation. There's really No Way To Know what lies ahead. Sure, about 99.9999999% of the time, deflation leads to Implosion, but we can't be sure! So all we can really do is Hope For The Best. And plan for the best. And start that new handbag store, despite the complete failure of the last one".
Stock slaughter
For equities, a sustained period of deflation is widely seen as a disaster By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As 2009 began, U.S. dairy farmers slaughtered more than 70,000 cows in one week to fight slumping prices.
Herds are being culled at the fastest rate in almost two decades as the recession withers away consumers' demand for everything from frothy cappuccinos at Starbucks.
In January alone, milk and cheese prices plunged by at least one-third. Similarly painful adjustments are playing out around the world as companies try to slash production and cut jobs in the face of falling demand and waning pricing power.
The problem is that, as more companies hunker down, demand may weaken further, spurring another wave of downward pressure on prices that would usher in a prolonged period of deflation.
"The combination of credit-crunch deflation and recession is forcing companies to conserve cash by firing workers and slashing capital spending," said investment strategist Ed Yardeni. "That should work for one company, but when they all do it, it just exacerbates the situation by cutting demand all over again."
Many investors believe that a lengthy bout of deflation is unlikely.
But if consumer prices do indeed fall for a long time, the result is likely to be a disaster for much of the stock market, investment professionals say.
Investors could minimize their losses in stocks -- and maybe even capitalize a little on the situation -- by paring their portfolios of the most vulnerable assets while steering toward sectors that are more resilient to a deflation wave.
Companies that may suffer less include those with costs that fall more than the price of their products, such as Dean Foods, and firms that help consumers save money, like Wal-Mart Stores and McDonald's Corp. But many sectors including banks, metals companies, retailers and manufacturers would likely be crushed by sustained deflation. "Sometimes an entire asset class is not a good idea," said Kevin Harrington, chief economist at San Francisco-based Clarium Capital.
Clarium, which runs a $2.24 billion global macro hedge fund, is avoiding stocks, while betting on gains in the U.S. dollar, which Harrington describes as "implicitly a deflationary trade."
No global macro hedge funds were bullish on U.S. equities, according to a survey in early February by consulting firm Greenwich Associates.
That was down from 46% in January and 62% in December. The lowest level of interest in U.S. stocks before that was 8% in October 2007, just before the Standard & Poor's 500 index began a 45% slump.
"It's not a question of if. Deflation is upon us," said John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC, a global macro hedge fund in Aliso Viejo, Calif. "It's a question of how bad it will get."
Steven Bell, a former Deutsche Bank economist who runs a global macro hedge fund at London-based GLC Ltd., has been betting against, European and Japanese stocks, while buying two-year German government bonds.
"Deflation is a serious threat," he said. "You have to say that all companies would lose in such an environment, but some would lose less than others."
In contrast to equities, deflation typically boosts long-term government bonds because their fixed payments become more valuable as the price of goods and services fall. See feature on deflation and the bond market.
Japan
When Japan suffered its most severe bout of deflation, from October 2000 through January 2003, only one sector of the nation's stock market -- electric power and gas shares -- posted gains, according to Morgan Stanley.
Shares of non-ferrous metals producers, communications, banks and services companies dropped more than 60% during the period. And there's a worrying difference between Japan's experience and the current predicament of the U.S.: The Japanese had lots of savings when the country descended into its deflationary recession, but U.S. consumers are now mired in debt.
"The societal effects were not nearly as dramatic as we're experiencing now in the U.S.," said Brian McAuley, chief investment officer at Sitka Pacific Capital Management LLC. "People had much more to fall back on in Japan, while our consumption is falling dramatically."
McAuley is investing in gold and gold mining companies, while keeping his clients' equity exposure at zero.
He's expecting more stock market losses, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index possibly falling to 650 points, more than 20% below current levels.
Deflation scare trades
Morgan Stanley strategist Ronan Carr recently advised investors to keep most of their money in cash and gold. Gold is usually considered a good hedge against inflation, rather than deflation.
However, Carr said the precious metal would likely provide protection in either scenario. Banks should be avoided, partly because deflation increases borrowers' debt in real terms, making it harder for them to repay loans, Carr explained.
Bank stocks in Japan slumped 91% during its long fight with deflation and slumping real estate, according to Goldman Sachs. The KBW Bank Index, which tracks the largest U.S. banks, has dropped roughly 77% since the housing bust began two years ago.
That suggests, in a worst-case scenario, U.S bank shares have another 60% to fall, Goldman analysts warned this week.
Mining companies carrying lots of debt, such as Xstrata , may also be losers because the real value of their interest payments would rise while the prices they can charge for the metals they produce falls, Carr said.
Other so-called cyclical stocks, such as carmakers, should also be avoided, he added. Relative winners include companies that generate strong cash flow and have little debt.
Industries that have pricing power and are protected from new competition could also survive better. Tobacco companies, drug makers and property and casualty insurers fit those criteria, Carr says.
Already declining
While debate swirls over whether deflation or inflation will emerge over the long term, prices are already falling in the U.S.
The consumer price index fell 1% in October, the most since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing seasonally adjusted prices in 1947. The CPI slumped 1.7% in November, another record, and 0.7% in December.
Morgan Stanley estimates that by July, U.S. consumer prices will have fallen 3% from a year earlier.
Merrill Lynch sees the CPI down by the same amount by the third quarter. Once falling prices form a trend, it's difficult to reverse, partly because consumers are encouraged to save rather than buy.
That dents demand and sales, potentially inflating companies' inventories and triggering more discounts. "
Potential buyers realize that they can negotiate even lower prices simply by waiting," Brynjolfsson said.
Fixed debt payments get larger in real terms, which means any credit problems impacting the financial system only get worse, he added.
The auto industry has already been buffeted by deflationary winds. Most new car purchases are at least partly paid for with loans.
The transaction results in two costs for consumers -- the extra money for the loan and the impact of an asset that begins to lose value the moment it's driven off the lot.
But in a period of deflation, the cost of the loan increases because the debt payments rise in real terms.
The result has been a plunge in new car sales which has pushed U.S. automakers General Motors, Chrysler and maybe even Ford to the brink of bankruptcy.
One carmaker, South Korea's Hyundai, is trying to tackle the problem by letting buyers return vehicles, at no cost in most cases and with no dent on their credit rating, if they lose their job or income within a year.
"That's a direct response to the deflationary psyche of buyers," Brynjolfsson said. Cutting capacity Airlines performed relatively well last year when their costs fell as oil prices slumped. However, demand for flights started dropping too, pushing ticket prices down 11% from their August high, according to Yardeni Research. "
Airlines benefit when oil prices decline, but they lose if conditions are such that no investment bankers are flying to see their clients," GLC's Bell said. "Space in first class and business class has been dramatically reduced."
Bell was speaking from Kuwait, an oil-rich country which only a year ago was dogged by inflation concerns. "January is usually very busy, but the Middle East is much quieter this year," he said.
"The hotels are empty and flights are not full." The parent companies of American Airlines and United Airlines said in January that they would cut capacity further this year to try to halt the decline in airfares.
The retail sector has been particularly hard hit as slumping demand forced many companies to slash prices to whittle down ballooning inventories.
Costco Wholesale Corp., one of the world's largest retailers, sent a shudder through the industry in early February when it issued a big profit warning.
The company said it cut prices aggressively to drive sales, but that took a chunk out of margins. Eggs and butter prices were chopped 10% to 20% and milk prices were slashed more than 20%, Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said. "
Arguably, a good chunk of that is short-term, as long as we don't live in a recession forever and as long as we don't see huge deflation," he added, during a conference call with analysts. Even luxury retailers have slashed prices.
Saks Inc. cut designer-clothes prices by 70% before the holiday shopping season. Still, the department store operator reported a 24% slump in January sales, partly because shoppers continued to buy sale items, rather than regular-priced merchandise.
"What the sector will have a tough time doing is returning to full-priced business," said Brian Sozzi, an analyst at Wall Street Strategies.
"Consumers are now trained to expect discounts." Nuts and chips Other companies traditionally considered resilient in recessions have also been hit by deflationary troubles recently.
Kraft Foods, the world's No. 2 food maker, reported a 72% drop in fourth-quarter profit as it struggled to deal with declining food prices.
In January, Kraft was forced to cut prices on its Planters nut snacks after it lost market share. When Kraft raised prices last fall, its rivals didn't.
Technology companies are used to falling prices, but the recent drop in chip prices has been so severe that several companies have suffered.
The price of DRAM, a memory chip commonly used in personal computers, slumped 77% from May to December last year. NAND flash chips, used in cell phones and digital cameras, have fallen 62% in price during the same period, according to iSuppli.
Shares of Micron Technologies, a leading DRAM supplier, dropped 64% last year, while SanDisk, one of the largest NAND flash makers, slumped 71%. Qimonda AG, a big German DRAM maker, went bust in January.
Possible winners
Some companies may benefit from deflation if their costs fall faster than the price of the products they sell. Take Dean Foods.
The company buys milk from dairy farmers then processes it, distributes it in refrigerated diesel trucks and sells it to grocery stores and other food retailers. The recent drop in milk prices and a slump in diesel in the past year have cut Dean's costs dramatically.
That's made up for declines in the price of the dairy products it sells, improving profit. As recently as Wednesday, Dean Foods said that fourth-quarter profit more than doubled and issued a bright forecast for 2009.
Other companies that offer consumers ways to save money may also avoid some of the damaging effects of deflation. Sitka's McAuley said Wal-Mart may benefit as shoppers become thriftier.
Meanwhile, fast-food giant McDonald's has remained resilient in recent months. "Companies that provide consumers with the opportunity to save some money and still get fairly good service and products may do OK," Yardeni said.
Even so, Yardeni and McAuley warn, if deflation lingers for a long time, there would be few such examples for investors to consider.
So deflation, and it's attendant terrible side-effects, is here. Prices, demand, and jobs simply go into a self-reinforcing cycle of decline. Easily illustrated by Japan's economic conditions for almost the last 2 decades. Generation Lost.
Japan's reaction was to hope against hope. Still is. Banks STILL hold trillions in NPA over there. They are entering their 3rd decade of Asset Denial. They won't sell or re-price, or otherwise realize these loan losses, as the corporation would cease to exist. The Overhang Continues.
So what are we doing? Surely we aren't following Japan's Bad Example, right?
Ohhhhh, we surely are. Everything possible is being done to avoid realizing losses. Everything possible is being done make it to Barack's Promised Land, where TARP, and other bailout funds flow like water. Everything possible being done to Ride It Out, wait for the bailout some we can bank the money, wait for The Bad Bank to take All Our Bad Loans. Every bank in America made whole again.
Maybe. It's possible. We can certainly print the money.
But The Losses Will Be Recognized. At some Point. By Someone. And that someone is taxpayers. Which seems OK, since it's just us chickens. We made the mess, we'll fix it, we'll be fine.
Actually, this is true in some respects. But what is Really Happening, is that the wealth of this country is being reallocated.
All the banks with bad loans are having their negative net worth made whole.
All the people with foreclosures, are being made whole.
Trillions are being expended to do so. And we are all going to pay. Even those who had NOTHING WHATEVER TO DO WITH CREATING THE PROBLEM.
The Responsible are bailing out the irresponsible. The Good bail out the Bad. The winners are being made to lose.
Did you buy 6 houses by LYING on your mortgage applications at the top of the Bubble mega-froth? Lucky me, I am going to bail you out, because I chose to rent, and not lie, and live within my means.
Citigroup and J.P. Morgan suspend foreclosures
Obama to provide more details about foreclosure prevention plan in Arizona
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. on Friday announced that they would temporarily suspend foreclosures, as Washington's debate continued about how to save the U.S. economy and moribund housing market.
In a letter to House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass, J.P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said that he would set up a three-week moratorium on foreclosures.
Citigroup, in its own statement, said that it would suspend foreclosures until the Treasury plan is finalized. The announcements by Citigroup and J.P. Morgan come as President Obama prepares to announce more details about his plan to stem home foreclosures in an address on Wednesday in Phoenix, Arizona, according to White House press secretary Robert Gibbs.
The Arizona housing industry has been pounded by the slow economy and the state is now seeing some of the highest foreclosures rates in the country.
The Treasury plans to use $50 billion of the remaining $350 billion in bank-bailout funds for some form of foreclosure-mitigation program, but it has yet to produce details on the subject.
The goal of the program, which is part of a $1.5 trillion financial rescue program, is to help troubled homeowners avoid defaulting on their loans.
The Obama administration is working on a program that would subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners subject to an affordability test, according to reports.
This approach would be different from other assistance programs, because borrowers would go through a standard eligibility test and could be approved before their mortgage becomes delinquent.
Citigroup and J.P. Morgan are responding to a request from Frank, who pressed bankers on Wednesday to voluntarily set up a moratorium on foreclosures until the Treasury Department has put in place a plan to alter mortgages.
In addition to Frank, the Office of Thrift Supervision asked the federal and many state-chartered thrift institutions it regulates to stop foreclosures on owner-occupied homes until the new plan is finalized in the next few weeks.
Frank, in a meeting with reporters on Wednesday, said he expects that more than 90% of banks will halt foreclosures until the program is up and running.
He declined to provide details of what kind of plan he would like to see take place, but he said some principal write-down for troubled borrowers would be a key part of it.
A Treasury staffer said Tuesday that the program could resemble a proposal introduced by Federal Deposit Insurance Chairwoman Sheila Bair that would use funds from the bailout package in a program to help avoid foreclosures.
It is a loss-sharing program between mortgage servicers or investors and the FDIC and deals with loans that fail six months or longer after being modified.
See? Everyone waiting. Everyone going to get bailed out.
In the end, it's so tragic, you just have to laugh. I am, at some point, going to pay higher taxes for the STD's built on the Eastside. I will pay so that mortgage app liars will be bailed out of the lies. I will pay to artificially somehow keep housing prices high, so that I cannot afford one. I will pay for being honest and living within my means.
I made a bad choice.
I'll learn next time. I want my bailout money. I want money re-allocated TO ME, not AWAY FROM ME. I will be irresponsible. I'll lie. I will f**k you over to get mine.
This is a great country.
OK, I said earlier I would end with an illustration of almost ridiculous self-indulgence. It comes from the owners of Pomegranate, the failed downtown crap-O-torium. This woman is still blogging, and still just oblivious as s**t to the World around her. Check this out:
End of a dream (or two or three)
I miss Merenda. We would have gone there a few weeks ago after closing the doors on our own downtown shop for the last time. Instead, we went home and made a nice little dinner, sat in our pjs, and drank some champagne... to soothe our souls.
Truth is, we hardly ever (never) go out to dinner anymore, which makes us part of the problem for restaurants. It's endemic, this economic situation. Call it trickle down (too lite), ripple effect (better) or smashing tidal wave (apt), but it has affected everyone in one way or another.
When I lived in San Francisco some time ago (and please, no one needs to send an anonymous comment about Califungos [sic: Cali-Bangers]) I used to frequent the wonderful Farmer's Market at Ferry Plaza, just like I frequent our wonderful Farmer's Market at Mirror Pond here in Bend.
Back then, the Ferry building wasn't yet refurbished into the foodie heaven it is now, but once a month or so, local restaurants would set up tented booths and cook up a storm for shoppers. At that time, Jody Denton owned Lulu's (south of Market area), one of the restaurants represented at the market. I didn't know him then, but clearly remember standing in line for a soft shell crab sandwich, and going crazy over the amazing taste and texture of it. A bunch of people around me announced (to no one in particular) that it was so good they were getting back in line to get another one.
Sometimes a meal is memorable like that, even if it's eaten standing up in a converted parking lot with seagulls and pigeons swooping around, hoping for a bite. We were happy when Merenda opened. It was hugely ambitious, and all the buzz about how it could sustain itself seemed to dissipate when year after year, it just kept succeeding.
Until the financial crash. I really liked going there, and maybe this post is more about post-mortem support than anything else, but some of the blog posts I've read bothered me in their analysis of why they went down.
Truth is, everyone has a different experience at different restaurants, and some of it depends on the day, time of day, mood of the servers, who's cooking, and who's sitting next to you. There are lots of good restaurants here, and you'll get a different critique of them from everyone you talk to. And no observer will really know the details of why a restaurant – or any business – falls apart.
All I know is the restaurant business has to be a crazy scary venture: more intense and problematic and potentially disastrous than anything you can do in retail. I'm glad another group is giving it a go: the space is fabulous and, I think, the anchor of downtown. It's good that some of the Merenda employees are going to get their jobs back.
And I'm glad that Jody has another job lined up in Sydney. But I'm very sad that they had to go bankrupt in the process. No one wants to see that for a young family. Or anybody. We were there on their last night, and I shed a few tears as we left (oh yeah, lots of raw emotion these last few months).
Jody and Michelle are sure to land on their feet again, and the restaurant will reincarnate itself (empty spaces downtown will get filled: it will just be different).
It just hit me as the end of a dream, a vision. Not just theirs, but ours as well (knowing we'd be soon closing our downtown location), and soon, others. This is what I crave right now: that lemon rotisserie chicken. Maybe with an indulgent side of tempura green beans, followed up with an order of insanely delicious beignets. Call the medics.
I mean, this gal sounds like she's very nice. But, if you read this post closely, and in the context of someone who has just Closed Down A Failed Luxury Handbag Shop, you just have to wonder What The F**k Is She Thinking?
She even has the barest self-awareness to know that Cali-Bangers are the most LOATHED species on Earth. But even so, she almost defines Happiness by the Quality of Her Consumption. I almost feel bad for this person. How many authentic moments has she had in her life? I mean she describes herself as a "Shopping Monkey" on her blog.
It's actually just sad. And still, she is probably almost broke, and all she can do is reminisce about consuming. And you see this as a common thread in almost everything listed on BendBlogs.com. 95% of all posts are of an almost completely selfish nature: "Why I like/eat/do/dislike/buy/avoid/think about 'X'".
Well, I better wrap this up, so hbm can take a nappy pie.
I love deflation! My back is killing me!
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To those who love life
» DT from da FPGuest Contribution By Christina Smith
Jan. 2009
I wouldn't say that I'm particularly political, in fact when most conversation head in that direction, I tend to bow out. However, this is more than a political issue, its a moral one, a matter of life and death.
President Obama is set to legitamize abortion, even partial-birth abortion, by passing the "Freedom of Choice Act" (FOCA). He has set it as one of his first priorities. How sad that one of his first acts as President would be to allow the continued slaughter of innocent children. Did any of these precious souls ask to be conceived? And yet they are sacrificed on the altar of convenience, indifference or ignorance.
Please pray for our President. He claims to know Christ, but the Jesus I know would never sanction such an action for any reason. Please pray that God would move in President Obama's heart in any way necessary to prevent him from signing FOCA.
Let your voice be heard. Please go to www.FightFOCA.com to sign a petition against legalizing abortion.
And please pray for all the women and men touched by abortion: those girls who saw no other way out, the young men who didn't have a say, the grandparents who never held their grandchild. We are a nation of walking wounded, ripped apart inside by grief and guilt. God, help America.
Other Resources:
FOCAfacts
What the FOCA?
Family Research Council
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Planning To Spend Ten's of Millions at JR
» Juniper Ridge InfoThe Juniper Ridge Management Board is hard at work planning the infrastructure required to build out the first 100 acres as quickly as ODOT will allow. The main needs are:
1) Power--Pacific Corp was sold a piece of land by the railroad along the western edge of JR for $1/sq. ft. This will be the future site of a new substation that will power JR and a lot of the rest of the northside. For the immediate future a temporary substation to power Suterra is being installed. This is going through the public process right now, although you may not be actually hearing about it.
2) Sewer, storm sewer and water under the roads. This also ties into power because the same ditch will likely be made wide enough to hold an underground power cable as well. This also brings into the issue the related question:
3) Exact grade and alignment of the arterial roads. The big ones that tie into that big double roundabout in front of Les Schwab, namely the 18th Street extension. Also the roads around Suterra will need to be precisely planned, as well as the second outlet which will probably tie into Hunter Lane, along the second parcel purchased by Pacificorp for a new service.
These details will all be incorporated into a Special Planned Area for presentation and public process in order to zone them such that Suterra and other companies can move in. CC&R's will be part of this planning as well.
ODOT wants a viable financial plan, which the City is planning to present at a OTC meeting in March. ODOT's Mark Devoney suggested that for the foreseeable future the City should plan on approaching ODOT about more traffic piecmeal, as the companies that want to move in sign up. That will make it easier for ODOT to approve an increase in traffic. Mark suggested that a company should be limited to a maximum of 50 PM trips during peak drive time, and that mitigation measures like shuttles, off-peak shift turnovers, etc. would really help ODOT in making a positive decision.
Suterra construction is moving along at a fast pace. They want to move in by June 30th, but July 31st is more realistic. Some pics I took recently of the construction site, looking from northeast through east to southeast:
The Purchase and Sale Agreements with Suterra and Pacificorp have been signed and executed. the JRMB is working as fast as possible to be able to start selling more land this fall, after the Special Planned Area is officially zoned. This area will place certain types of companies in different places, such as high end office and R&D on the south end, warehousing along the west side by the railroad tracks, etc. Ray and Jeff will be involved in selling the first 50 acres when it is ready.
The Les Schwab Headquarters is in place and functioning:
Up to this point all sales have been "net negative", as Jerry Mitchell put it, meaning it has cost more to build the infrastructure than the sale price. Bend taxpayers have been covering the extra cost, and will well into the future with the bonding necessary to build out the infrastructure.
The approved UGB includes land for a future university at Juniper Ridge. There seems to be a conflict of interest concerning this with the newest member of the City Council, Oran Teater, who currently sits on the Juniper Ridge Management Board. Mr. Teater also sits on the OSU-Cascades Campus Board of Advisors, which would seem to place him in a position directly competing for funds with any future JR University. I will try to interview Mr. Teater and determine where he stands on this issue. -
Bend's Defaults Triple From Last Years Record
» Juniper Ridge InfoOnly a month and a half into this new year, Deschutes County records show that Notice of Default & Election to Sell notices have tripled from 128 to 373 through Feb. 12th. That is an astounding number in a county of 150,000 or so.
With a new City Council firmly funded and behind a developer mindset, this is a particularly worrisome development. We have an incredible level of empty homes, 1/3 of those presently listed, and the only answer seems to be to delay any further fees and encourage even more building.
We need jobs. Without jobs we can build thousands of homes, and the only occupants will be the homeless brave enough to break in. Period.
What has our Good Old Boy Network created for jobs? Juniper Ridge is the big push, but virtually every job there is one moved from another part of our small regional area. Les Schwab from Prineville, Suterra from the Old Mill District, Pacific Power.
Can this possibly be called job creation?
NO.
And to see yet another Good Old Boy, namely Oran Teater, coronated as the savior of the City Council, as the savior of Bend, is disturbing, disgusting, and disappointing. Oran led us into the start of the bubble. He is a financial advisor dedicated to increasing his clients net worth. Many of which clients are invested in local development.
Folks, we can't build our way out of this mess. We've tried that. It's time to find another paradigm.
A paradigm that pushes jobs that bring in dollars.
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11:36
Proposed System Development Charges
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogSDCs in Bend will top $20,000 per house. That is approaching 10 percent of the price of an average house. The lack of affordable housing in Bend is a chronic and well documented problem. The continual ratcheting up of SDCs and other land use and building fees exacerbates that problem. The proposed doubling of the SDC during an historically slow housing market is more than bad judgment. It’s a harsh blow to our local economy and the dreams of people looking to purchase a new home.
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10:02
New Year's Resolutions
» Emerald Bay Photo News and UpdatesOne of my biggest and most stout resolutions this fine new year will be to EAT LESS, eat more modestly, and consume food with greater attention paid to nutrition and calories.For example, my breakfasts will likely look like this every day (eggs = protein. protein = good):Something like this for lunch will probably address my nutritional needs (I see fiber in there! I swear I do...), in
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12:04
Ignite!
» life is weird (and so am i)Some of you have heard me talk about Ignite, or seen some chatter about this on Twitter. I attended Ignite Portland 3 last year and it was a blast. I'm proud and excited to announce... Ignite Bend 1! Getting to this point has taken a lot of work and energy from some very talented local folks. I am so excited that this is finally happening...Burning ideas are spreading across Central Oregon as the
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11:27
A Look Back on our 2008 hero's: Hollern, Smith, Denton and Osama.
» Bend Bubble 2Wow.
I can't believe this crazy-ass blog has survived over 2 years! My first post was Dec 17, 2006:
And to explictly state what this blog is about: Bend Oregon Real Estate, whether it is or has been in a bubble or not, whether this bubble is/has burst, implications for residents, businesses and others, and just about any topic relevant to the Bend Oregon economy and the surrounding region, and housing in general. With unmoderated discussion, I suppose anything goes though. Hopefully, people will realize the value of staying on topic, and will minimize personal "flame-wars".
I was so much younger then. And naive. In fact here is a picture of me eating breakfast right after that first post:
"Hey, give that to me. I eat anything."
And the greatest harbinger of things to come were the fanatastic 2 comments I received:
Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...
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Both almost bought a tear to my eye, especially the blog-spam one. Oh right, they were both blog spam. Here's a picture of me crying, I'm so overwhelmed:
IHTBYB crying his eyes out. (I am directly behind Britney in this pic, and only partially visible)
My next post, the very next day, had precisely zero comments. I think I finished out the year with a post of such gut-wrenching emotion and tenderness that one commenter was moved to pen these touching words:
Anonymous said...
this post is so dull that, after reading it, i wanted to claw my eyes out.
That's when I knew I had found my true calling: Inflicting pain on strangers via real estate blogging. Judging from the number of gouged out eyes I've seen in Bend, I would have to say: Mission Accomplished:
I love Bend Bubble 2 and Osama!
So there were humble beginnings. And most of the initial postings & comments were of a "defensive" nature: Even the idea that Bend was in a Bubble was widely derided as Insane. And there were some people who even denied (Bubble deniers) that a nationwide Bubble existed. Remember that?
Cuz, if you really remember that time, and contrast it with today, and what has transpired since, it just seems unbelievable. Bend was still caught in just an endless euphoria about the future. Bend is Immune was the mantra.- deep, now closed, hadn't even opened way back then.
- Sally Heatherton had not yet been "born".
- Forum Meadows owner turned down ALL auction "offers" for his sacred Bend homes, before going broke.
- Brooks resources blew out their River Wild condos at Mt Bach Village.
- Yarrow & Ironhorse hadn't begun sales.
- The collapse of the home builders stock prices was as bad as anyone thought it'd get.
- No Bend developers had committed suicide.
- At the time Columbia Aircraft was alive & well.
- No layoffs at Brightwood.
- Seaswirl still alive.
- No firings at City Hall.
- Fannie & Freddie in the in the $70's.
- The DJIA had yet to hit 14,000, and fall to the 7,000's.
- CACB hit $32 in the last week on 2006. Now $6 and change.
- The Shire was still the proud brainchild of The Hatchery.
- Becky Breeze still owned The Plaza.
- Residential sales in Bend were in the hundreds per month.
- Medians hit $396,250 in May 2007.
- BendBB had not yet stricken any of my comments.
- Buster had not called any of us Stincking Smelly Cunts.
- I had not yet uttered, "It will get worse than you can possibly imagine."
- People actually Raised their asking prices back then. Really!
- That Olive & Nut store had yet to open & close.
- I had not yet voted Dunc for Mayor.
- We barely knew what SubPrime is, and no one knew what Alt-A was.
- Citicorp was still the largest financial org the World had ever seen.
- No bailouts of banks, automakers, or anyone else.
- Lehamn was still alive & kicking. Smith Barney too.
- No Cessna layoff's locally yet. The buyout was a "huge success".
- Unemployment was below 4% in Bend.
- Not a one Single Family Home was below $100/sf in Bend. No a single one.
- I had not yet lost my bet to BendBB that medians would go below $300K.
- Renaissance Homes was still smitten with Randy Sebastians flesh-eating AIDS.
- Holtz-Tek had not yet blackmailed our fair city out of Millions for JR "Master Plan".
- BEM had not yet penned his "cure" for Broken Bend.
- I had yet to post my first Picto-Plummet.
- I had yet to introduce into our lexicon the terms "Cali-Banger", "STD's" or "Flipper Bait".
- The Oregonian had yet to run "Death and Specualtion in Bend".
- Pronghorn & Brasada were still above the fray, and "selling out" on Day 1.
- Volo was still a glimmer in Bledsoe's donkey-cum-encrusted eye.
- The WSJ had yet to expose man-birthing or clothesline propoganda to the World.
- The ferris wheel blackmail of Broken Top had yet to occur.
- Bend was still in the grips of Tuscan mania.
- The Redmond water park would save us all from Central Oregons terrible seasonality with high-paying lifeguard jobs.
- We did not yet know that NOW is "The best time to buy in 20 years".
- Bend was still the most overvalued city in the country.
- Baby Jeebus had not yet smited us.
- I had not yet declared Bend the Best 3rd World City ever.
- Trono's Mercato had it's Australian financing All Lined Up.
- Norma DuBois had sold out Franklin Crossing for the 18th time.
- Measure 37 made every hillbilly Oregonian farmer a land baron.
- Tiny Ashwood OR took the prize for most ambitious housing development: 5,500 homes in a town of 120 people.
- NAR economist David Lereah still encouraged the financial merits of home ownership.
- Crook County had not yet approved resort properties that would saddle the area with 75 years of inventory.
- We didn't have a fleet of busted BAT buses.
- The city hadn't lost multi-million dollar lawsuits regarding water systems and whatnot.
- The August 2006 inventory top was still "temporary".
- We still hadn't been shown how to get rich losing millions by Don Bauhofer (aka Bauhumper).
- The Incredible Hulce continued to pander to RE developers in her completely discredited rag.
- We were yet to be introduced to the merits of Capstone Turbine Buttplugs.
- We were yet to receive a lesson in thermodynamics by a dude who dragged a tire behind his car to power his car, a guy who turned water into gas, and a company that turned trash into fuel.
- I had yet to recommend Rent & Invest The Difference as The Only Investment Plan you could be sure of in a place like Bend.
- There were many, Many businesses, largely invisible, that were still open, that have vanished in the meantime. Most mortgage brokers are in this category.
- Re/Max was still open. So was Sunriver Realty.
- COBA, COVA & the rest hadn't BOUGHT our City Councilors election for pennies on the dollar.
- My prediction of a collapse in California RE was still widely ridiculed: "California is Immune."
- 1031, Merenda, deep and other accessories of wealth for Bend's elite still held their glistening facade.
- NOD's were not measured in the THOUSANDS here.
- We had yet to have our first 1,000+ comment week.
- The City was not perilously close to bankruptcy.
- Black dudes were known for beatin' they wives, smokin the cracker, f**kin, and shootin whitey, not being President.
And there is probably more. Much more. The point?
It's been a hell of an eventful couple of years. Most of the real crazy s**t has happened in the last 6 months. I mean The Giants of The Financial Universe have been hobbled.
Cathy Bates administer Good Olde Fashioned Hobbling. Feels so good.
I guess my main point is this: Having seen how far we've come, how people like Jody Denton's business eyes were too big for their stomach, you might want to exercise some restraint. Because this thing is, AT MOST, about half over.
We have gone from $396K medians to $239K, that's down 40% from top to bottom. Another 40% down is Very, Very Easily possible, which would take us down to $143K.
Folks, when we hit medians in the $140's, and it will happen, Bend is not going to be a place that about 70-75% of the population even recognizes. The old codgers will, but it will be the 4 Bees that rule the roost: Butter, Beans, Bullets, and Bullion.
This place will be like a hyper-magnified version of much of the US. We aren't going to sink back into the Stone Age, like some have posted here (IMO), but we will NEVER return to the hyper-consumption-fueled prosperity of the past 3 decades. That time is over.
But you'd do well to read into Denton's comments about What He Is Doing Now.
He's Leaving Bend, and He's Leaving Oregon.
“I had a very long and prosperous career before I came to Bend,” he said, “and I’ll do what’s best for me and my family. It will definitely be outside of the state of Oregon.”
He's telling us something.
When all is said and done, Bend, In The Best Of Times, left this very talented & decent person, completely broken. Broken financially yes, but worse, just broken from the experience.
“Getting to this point has been stressful and difficult,” the chef said. “For my wife and myself, there was a sense of relief once the decision was made.”
Once you make the decision, once you realize that you can stop fighting the impossible battle, there is a Huge Sense Of Relief. Denton is a talented guy, a guy with resources, a guy with a plan & the ability to execute: And this place broke him.
And I have to give him credit for one of The Best Lines Ever from a Bend Businessman quoted in The Bulletin:
“But the question became: How wise is it to keep feeding this thing when all it does is eat?”
I will leave it at that.
I hope no one notice I stuffed that motherf**king BendBubble2 blog in my humungous smelly twat! The coast looks clear! I gonna make a run for it! Happy New Year you f**kers! I hope you suffocate & die in my smelly cunt!
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16:29
Helping YOU Buy a Bank Owned Property
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Many people have the misconception that people do not buy homes in Central Oregon in the winter time. January sales have always shown that to be a misunderstanding. This year it should be proven again to be wrong, Buyers This is a Perfect Time to Buy your Central Oregon Home.Many of the homes for sale in Central Oregon see huge price reductions in the winter – after all “no one buys in the winter time.”
This year we have a nice inventory of bank owned homes in Central Oregon. These homes may or may not have the heat on may or may not be plowed, but heck we live in or want to live in Central Oregon we own a pair of boots or two don’t we?
With all the great lending programs available with great rates, low down payments now is the best time we have seen in years. Recently, I helped one buyer buy a bank owned home that once the payment, including taxes and interest was calculated they will be saving $40 off what they had been paying for rent. Think about this – a first time home owner receives a tax credit, plus the interest is tax deductible and they are paying less than they were for rent.
If you are looking to purchase a bank owned home (REO or Repo) then you need a “Bank Owned Buyers Specialist” working for you. Call or email for you list of homes or to set an appointment – let’s see if we can put you in your own home and save you some money.
Bookmark To
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White Christmas, Wonderful Gift.
» DT from da FP
At our house the snow has been falling over the last few days. Everything is covered in white and there are icicles hanging off the roof. It's a dream scenario for this time of year. We will be having white Christmas.
Everybody wants a white Christmas. Everybody also wants a bunch of other stuff too. A new gaming system, a car, a computer, a trip to Hawaii. What happens when you don't get what you really want?
It made me stop and think about that first Christmas. There was no snow, I'm sure. But I think there were some wants. A room. A bed. A midwife. I'm not so sure the stable fit the bill. And yet from that occasion of things not turning out as expected came the most wonderful gift ever given.
As I watch the snow drift lightly to the ground I am grateful for the obedience of one man to take his betrothed to a city far from home. For the willingness of a young girl to go along and not complain when the only place to stay was a stable. And for Heavenly Father who loved me so much that He created the dream scenario where a little baby would be born and through Him my sins would be forgiven.
I'm thankful for the beauty of a white Christmas. But I am overwhelmed with gratitude for the wonderful gift of Jesus.
Merry Christmas!
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22:30
The Bank Owned Home & You!
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Are you looking at buying one of the many bank owned properties in Central Oregon? La Pine, Three Rivers South, Bend and even Sunriver have homes that are bank owned or listed for less than the seller owes (short sale). The banks have agents on their side of the transaction, you deserve someone on your side.Did you know that you do not pay more if you have your own agent? One of the most misunderstood concepts of real estate is that by dealing with the listing agent the buyer will get a better deal. This is not true, Banks and sellers alike have contracts with the listing agent. Once those listings go into the Central Oregon MLS they are bound to pay both the listing and selling agent.
Buyers your representation is vitally important to you! Having an agent that is there to put your needs first is your best defense in any market condition. Many of these bank owned properties are listed with agents that know little of the area. I am not saying they are not good agents, they are doing a good job for the BANK -They spend a lot of time and money paying utility bills, and checking on the property. Their job is to get the bank the most for the house they can. My job is to get the most home for the least amount of money for you.
A few of the horror stories I have heard recently include buying a home without proper access to the property. Buying a home that had a failed septic system (a cost to the buyer in excess of $16,000) a buyer purchasing a home that was in great shape when they viewed the home, inspected a home and when they moved in there were no plumbing fixtures nor lights.
Buyers your needs and your investment are my number one priority - please feel free to call, email or stop by the office (ask for me) and let’s talk about your needs, your wishes, and the homes and loans available to you.
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9:55 Bend, the new cyclocrss mecca?
» bikebuzz2009... and at least 3 cross events in Bend?- Freshair will have its 3 series (still in planning)
- Webcyclery has their weeknight events
- Central OR racing has their Sat race too...
And what about NATZ? Bend is in the Running! It is a long shot, but Bend has some great potential for a Huge race and fun times. - Freshair will have its 3 series (still in planning)
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16:01
09 is going to be a season of sponsorship challenges
» bikebuzzFor racers and race promoters alike, 2009 is going to have some serious challenges.
Loose pocket books are not likely, unless you find someone who is making good money in the economic down turn or find unique methods of return on investment (legally speaking).Bend will have its own unique challenges that are new to me.
I will be working with Fresh Air Sports for 2009 cyclocross season to help develop a sustainable series that will add that cyclocross suppliment to the already popular Webcyclery series and not interfere with racers schedules who make the trip over the pass to Cross Crusade or Eugene. Hopefully we can develop a package of good fun and challenge for those who want to race and make it one that is here from year to year.
What is also interesting is that USAC is in town this week reviewing Bend for the USAC Cyclocross National Championship location for 09/10. (I have no inside info on that one) We might have another uprising of cyclocross racers in the area if this comes to fruition, so we will have to have more events locally.
The area is primed with lots of newer riders too, beyond elites and I think a smaller less metro location like Bend is a good place for people to dip their toes in and try cyclocross out.
Should be fun.
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22:58
Central Oregon Short Sale Sellers Beware!
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogSellers that are attempting a short sale need to be aware and careful. Agents of these homes should also be on their toes. Friday I got a call while I was at a home inspection, and preoccupied. The caller had called my office and spoke to my principal broker who directed the caller to call me about an expired la pine home listing of mine.
The caller was looking for information on a la pine home that has been listed as a short sale for several months. The home has not sold and the sellers have moved out and into a rental. The sellers have not abandoned the property and are there usually daily.
The caller claimed to be with an asset management company and needed access to the property to winterize it. I know for a fact that the sellers have until February to resolve their back payments and that the bank that hold the note on this property has been in contact with the sellers. When I questioned the caller as to why they would need access to a Central Oregon home that did not belong to the bank they could not answer my questions.
They did not hang up and tried to convince me of their urgent need with the cold weather coming. I did not give them access to the home and let the seller know right away. Today, I discovered that there is a group of people posing as asset managers and stripping homes in Central Oregon listed as short sales. They are removing everything they can from homes such as lighting fixtures, heat pumps, even toilets.
I was thankful that I took the approach that a bank has no right to a home prior to auction any more than a bank will allow early occupancy to a buyer. Sellers even if you are not in a short sale but your home is vacant please be careful - make sure the people entering your home have authorization to do so and that your agent is not giving these people free reign to your home.
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Abuse of Public Process by the City of Bend
» Juniper Ridge InfoThe upcoming Bend Planning Commission meeting on Dec. 8th is a fine example of the abuse of public process by the City of Bend. The last item on the agenda of this meeting is one given little attention, one that is a gift to developers, and one with a preconceived outcome.
This item is a Code change that will give developers an unlimited number of extensions on their approved plans, even if there are changes in the applicable criteria.
The reason for providing additional extensions as needed is stated in the Transmittal Memo provided to the Planning Commission:
So, in fewer words, developers are nearing two years since gaining their approvals, and still can't find financing with which to actually start building. They have already received a one-year extension on the original one-year approval period, and want more time. As much as they need.DISCUSSION: Because of the current economic crisis, many developers are unable to execute their approved planning permits, which requires the initiation of construction. These developers intend to build their projects and desire to keep their planning approvals active until the market allows them the financial ability to submit their building permits, pay their SDCs and commence construction. As the economic climate continues to stagnate, these developers are approaching the end of their one-year extensions. The proposed Code amendment will give the City Council the ability to recognize the economic environment of today as a reason to authorize one or more additional extensions.
Now this may be well and good for the developers, and perhaps even for the city if these developments, like Mercado, eventually gain financing and are built. The city stands to eventually gain income from permit fees and SDC fees when the developers finally find financing. If the underlying economic reasons for these developments continue to exist, of course.
But before we get to the question of the underlying economics to further development in Bend, lets look more closely at the legally required public process being followed to implement these code changes. From the already posted official Recommendation to the City Council
So what exactly is this public record? After all, the first I have heard of this is in a comment on the BendBubble2 blog.CONCLUSION
On the basis of this record, there is a public need or benefit for the requested text amendments to the City of Bend Development Code, the request is consistent with the applicable State land use law, and the request is consistent with the applicable Bend Area General Plan goals and policies.
Looking at the recommendation again, it states before the conclusion that:
Re-read item 3, noting the date.1. The applicant, City of Bend Planning Division, initiated the Development Code text amendment on November 5, 2008.
2. The application was submitted in accordance with Section 4.1.300 of the Bend Development Code. Timely and sufficient notice of the public hearing, pursuant to Section 4.1.315 of the Bend Development Code, has been provided.
3. On December 8, 2008, the City of Bend Planning Commission conducted a public hearing to accept testimony on the request. At the conclusion of the hearing, the Planning Commission voted to recommend that the Bend City Council approve the proposed text amendment. The Planning Division staff report and recommendation together with the testimony of the persons testifying at this hearing have been considered and are part of the record of this proceeding.
Yes, on the day this recommendation is going to be voted on and submitted to the City Council for a rubber stamp vote, a public hearing will be held and the city staff already knows what will be said in the public hearing. And they know how the Planning Commission voted.
Amazingly prescient. These city staff guys are good, no?
Or are they just trying to sneak something through without real public review, but only the appearance of a public process?
Let's look at the actual code change, to see what really is being proposed:
So we see the power of granting unlimited extensions, even if "applicable criteria" change, devolve into the hands of a single person--Mel Oberst, Director of Community Development. To me, Mel is one of the good guys, but this is disturbing.Proposed Bend Development Code Text Amendment
(New language is underlined; deleted language is struck-through)
4.1.1310(C) Extensions:
1. ThePlanningCommunity Development Director may grant one extension of up to one year for aland usedevelopment approval or a phase of aland usedevelopment approval,unless the applicable criteria have changed,if:
a. An applicant makes a written request for an extension of the development approval period; and
b. The request, along with the prescribed fee, is submitted to the city prior to the expiration of the approval period.
2. The Community Development Director may grant one or more additional extensions beyond one year if authorized by a City Council resolution which recognizes a city-wide need for an additional limited-duration extension. The additional extension may be granted if:
a. The applicant has exhausted all other extension opportunities; and
b. The applicant satisfies the submittal requirements of (1)(a) and (b) of this section.
Is this good for Bend?
Should we have a more open public process before making such decisions that impact our city income and landscape?
If you think so, you should go to the City Council bio page, where you can click through to each members bio and email address, and tell them you ARE paying attention.
Also send emails to the following staff, asking them about the public process and how you can be involved:
moberst@ci.bend.or.us
citymanager@ci.bend.or.us
This ongoing trait of minimal public involvement in city decisions must come to an end if we are to survive the current financial crisis. With good management, realistic management, we will work towards filling all the commercial and residential real estate that is empty now, rather than trying to build our way out of this mess.
Sanity must prevail in the long run.
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16:24
Christmas Cookie Exchange?
» The Little ThingsAnyone else up for doing a Bend-area based Christmas cookie exchange? Basically, everyone makes several dozen of one kind of cookies, then the group gets together and everyone goes home with a variety of cookies, without having to make several different types of cookies themselves. How many varieties everyone gets depends upon how many folks participate.
I'd love to do this if others are interested. Comments, baby! -
13:16
Sad
» The Little ThingsOur neighbor's house was on fire a few minutes ago. The good news is that nobody was home and that another neighbor was able to get their dog to come outside through the doggie door. The sad news is that our neighbor's house was on fire. :( What a sad event right before the holidays.
These aren't neighbors that I know, but it still hits close to home. When I was 13, my friend Jenny's house burned down, and I remember how hard it was on their family. While our neighbor's house is in much better shape than Jenny's house was, this still won't be easy to come back from, and I'm sure there is a lot of smoke damage we can't see from outside.
What a shame.
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Prayer - Facebook Style
» DT from da FPI love Facebook. I have a page and love the potential of this type of communication. I've caught the vision for sure.
A couple of weeks ago I sent out an email to all 170 of my Facebook (FB) friends letting them know that I would be fasting and praying and I asked if I could pray for them. The answers flooded in. I was like Jim Carrey in Bruce Almighty. The requests came pouring in faster than I could read them. (Just envision me with post-its all over my body)
Needless to say I had plenty of things to pray about during the day and it was an honor to bring each request before the Lord. I was grateful for the willingness of all my friends to share their needs with me.
Because of the overwhelming response I decided to create a group on FB called Lighthouse. It is a prayer and fellowship ministry based on James 5:13-18 which says:
Is anyone among you suffering? Let him pray. Is anyone cheerful? Let him sing psalms.
Is anyone among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the church, and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord.
And the prayer of faith will save the sick, and the Lord will raise him up. And if he has committed sins, he will be forgiven.
Confess your trespasses to one another, and pray for one another, that you may be healed. The effective, fervent prayer of a righteous man avails much.
Elijah was a man with a nature like ours, and he prayed earnestly that it would not rain; and it did not rain on the land for three years and six months.
And he prayed again, and the heaven gave rain, and the earth produced its fruit.
It has been fun to see people embrace the group I am encouraged by what God is doing.
I am also really grateful to use technology like this. I never thought that I would be able to minister in this medium and it's cool.
I'm excited to see what He does next!
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10:18
Your Quick List of Bank Owned Properties in Central Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
икониMany buyers today are seeking Central Oregon bank owned properties. Buyers believe bank owned properties offer a home at a price lower than other homes on the market. This is not always the case. Bank owned properties in Central Oregon usually come with their own list of issues. Bank owned properties are sold as is [...]
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15:37
3rd Quarter Stats For Central Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Central Oregon has been in a Buyer’s Market for a time now. Sellers are feeling frustrated and discouraged while buyers are fearful of where lending is going. Many buyers have already taken advantage of the down market and found their dream homes.There are still a lot of great deals to be found in Central Oregon. With tax credits, lending programs and so on there are a lot of great reasons to purchase a home today.
Many sellers and buyers are interested in what the market has done this far for the year - attached you will find the Stat for Central Oregon through the 3rd quarter of the year. You can easily see that the entire Central Oregon area has suffered in this market.
These stats will show you the number of homes that have sold in each of the areas of Central Oregon including; La Pine, Three Rivers South, Sunriver and Bend. —–> click here for report
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Bend Burger Company
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBend Burger Company The Bend Burger Company is NOT THE BBC. The BBC stands for the Bend Brewing Company. If I tell my friends that I'll meet them at the BBC, I better see them at the Bend Brewing Company with a pint of Outback Ale waiting for me. If I hear you describe the Bend Burger Company to your friends and you refer to them as the BBC, I get to slap you across the back of your neck.
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7:20
It's Guest Post Monday! The Mayor?
» Bend Bubble 2I have to apologize for not putting these 2 submissions to bendbubble2@gmail.com up sooner. I am just lame. Anyway, 2 guest posts, 1 from the Mayor, and 1 from an RE dude. First, his highness:
To whom it may concern ... (is this you Bruce?) I was looking at your blog and came across an amazing bit of text. A quote attributed to me that is not only inaccurate, but I never said it.
January 3, 2008 you wrote "Green is not alone as a second-home owner in Deschutes County. These days, two of every three dwellings in Bend, Oregon is a second home, according to Bend, Oregon Mayor Bruce Abernethy, himself a real estate broker."
What??? First of all, I would never say two out of three homes are second homes because it isn't true. Secondly, I am not and never have been a real estate broker. Where do you make this stuff up? I suppose I should give you some credit because you did get the part about me being mayor right.
Bruce Abernethy
383-6030 (w)
Now the RE dude:
General State of the Economy
I am a Real Estate Appraiser. I have worked as a Realtor, Loan Officer and Real Estate Appraiser here in Central Oregon since 1995. While I agree with the majority of your opinions regarding our local real estate industry, I wholeheartedly agree with your comments regarding the "bailout".
Bailout-
I think the term "pissing in the ocean" applies here. There is a reason the administration rushed this legislation through congress. The bailout is the biggest hoax on the American people since Reagan's deregulation. It would have been better to let these financial institutions fail, because the free market has shown that something better and stronger will take it's place. Think of these mortgages as a game of musical chairs... taxpayers are once again out of the game without a chair, but holding all the debt. As you've seen from the stock market the last few days... those in the know are not buying into the bailout as a saviour.
Family Wage Jobs-
The Central Oregon area has some special challenges that occur in other areas of the country (Aspen, Durango, Lake Tahoe come to mind). Unfortunately, we have a number of groups which have formed political alliances to maintain the status quo. The number one priority of our local government should be in obtaining family wage jobs. The status quo group of Realtors, Politicos, Developers and the Bend Bulletin believe that we should be building additional resorts. While tourism brings needed dollars and businesses to our area, the minimum wage jobs these industries spawn does nothing to raise the standard of living for the majority of Central Oregonians. The developing of our land, for resort use, benefits those at the top of our economic food chain with very little dribble down to the majority of Central Oregonians. The time, effort and money wasted by our local government spent in kowtowing to this cartel would be much better spent in wooing businesses to the area with tax breaks and/or other benefits.
The Local Housing Market-
I told my clients at the beginning of this year, that I believed our local housing market was going to get worse. The bad news is that we have not hit bottom yet. This makes the March 2008 prediction of recovery by Dana Bratton, one of our local appraisers, look that much more ridiculous. Home pricing will continue to spiral downward as credit tightens - it's a horrible snowball that is still gaining strength as it rolls down the hill. Check out Kevin Phillips book - Bad money : reckless finance, failed politics, and the global crisis of American capitalism. This gives a glimpse of how short sighted politicians have allowed greed to ruin our economy. Locally, foreclosures are increasing and driving the median home pricing down. This will continue to snowball as local businesses begin to fail and thereby force more pressure on homeowners already struggling to pay their monthly mortgage. This financial pressure has tragically manifested itself through a number of suicides and a rise in divorce filings. The financial strain of our declining real estate market takes a very real toll on the personal lives of all Central Oregonians.
Folks - it's going to get a bit worse before it gets better. There may be a very real up-tick in consumer confidence after the Presidential election. Look for positive signs in the economy after the first of the year. However, if this economic snowball continues, it could turn into an avalanche and take most of the world with it. Most economic experts are predicting a few years of stagflation. The only fix is to pry open the credit markets. This 700 billion dollars would have been much better spent establishing a direct government mortgage system. If consumers know they can once again have access to credit, then home pricing will stabilize and people will start spending again.
Of course, Central Oregon is still a great place to live and work. I am heartened by the citizens of Bend who care deeply about this place. I moved here for the lifestyle and I have not been disappointed, those who moved here to "get rich" in the housing industry can't help but be disappointed.
Thank you for allowing me to post...
David Skelton
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13:36
Do You Know Where Your Rent Is Going?
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Many of us are hitting harder times than we have seen in years. As a REALTOR® I often see homes that are for sale in what is called a short sale. A simple explanation of a short sale is a seller attempting to sell their home for less than they owe on it. This takes the bank agreeing to the lower price and other terms. To qualify for a short sale, the owner must generally be behind on the payments.As these types of listings become more and more common it amazes me how many of these listings are actually occupied by renters. Renters that are paying their rent on time, with what I would assume is the the thought that the real estate market is slow and chances are the home will not sell. They have agreed to rent the home for sale thinking that the home will most likely not sell.
Many of the homes I have recently shown lately that are in the short sale category have already been served a notice of default. The process for the bank to take the house has started. Do the renters know that there is a chance they will be asked to move because the landlord lost it to the bank? Is it fair to ask for a renter to pay rent on a home that the owner is not making payments on?
Renters - be careful out there - know the situtation. Is the place you call home in foreclosure? Is the landlord paying the mortgage? Today I read an article that a good friend of mine wrote about a similar situation. Maggie Dokic writes about scam artists that are “renting” homes that are owned by the bank.
Maggie is an agent in Florida, now I know you are thinking that is Florida this is Central Oregon. It can happen any where. Maggie has a home listed that is bank owned, bank owned properties are vacant - and easy to show to prospective buyers. Maggie received a call from another agent stating the property was occupied - it should not have been. Read the rest of what happened.
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11:46
Lyle Cox is a Trooper - CMRC Photoshoot with Dogs
» Chubby Mommy Running Club
Reason #456 that Bend is a cool place to live: the photographers from the local paper, who get sent out to take pictures of a Chubby Mommy Runner and her energetic dogs, display great professionalism.
Lyle's been around Bend much longer than I have, and has shot his share of exciting news in Bend, I'm sure. Because Bend is such an exciting town, of course. I mean, we have Chubby Mommies who write blogs about running with their dogs, after all.
I've worked on some stories with Lyle in the past, but he's never met my dogs. He came to my house for the photo shoot, and I made him walk around my neighborhood and up a few hills to get to a lovely photogenic spot with some views.
Not that I was micromanaging or anything. Far be it from me to tell people what to do...
Lyle forgot to bring his running shoes, but he has totally cool boots, as you can see.
Thanks Lyle, you're a good sport! Can't wait to see the article about me, and a few of the other Bend Bloggers in the November 1st edition of the Bulletin's "U-Magazine." -
Bend Film: Meeting Cornelia and The Dark Horse
» Chubby Mommy Running Club
I crashed the Bend Film party last night. I got in the tent.
Technically, I was hanging out at the Film Oregon Alliance party at Bella Cucina, and a friend had an extra ticket to the Bend Film awards dinner, in the tent across the street.
Untechnically, as soon as I got in, I spotted another friend, Julie G., at a table near the door that happened to have an extra place. It was the Fairy Godmother's table. Seemed like a good spot for me.
So I swooped in, grabbed a chair and sat down next to a lady with 4 feet of strawberry blond hair. I mean, seriously, her thick, wavy hair goes down below her knees. She had to put it on the outside of the back of the chair. It touched the floor. Intriguing.
Her name is Cornelia Duryee Moore, and she wrote and directed The Dark Horse Movie about coming to terms with the potential loss of her childhood home on Orcas Island, and how a grown woman grieves the loss of childhood while dealing with family drama.
She was sitting next to her friend Karen, from Bend, who shared her childhood with her. BFF's always sit next to you when the film you made about your life gets into a film festival. That's just what friends do. Especially cool friends like Karen, who make cute skirts out of neckties.
So anyway, I quickly sat down next to Cornelia and introduced myself.
"You are so beautiful!" she said.
I was kind of speechless, then, which doesn't happen often. Huh? What?
"Wow, thank you!" I stumbled, and grabbed her hand to shake it. Seems like you should shake someone's hand when they say that to you.
"Are you an actor?" she said.
"Uh, no," I stammered, wondering if I should tell her about my Improv. Troup days in college, or my stint as Queen of Hearts in 3rd grade. "But I think you and I should be friends now!"
She agreed, so we whispered and giggled a bit more, and she told me about her movie and Karen's amazing costume and fashion designs, before we figured we should listen to the speaker.
Later, during a break, Karen told me that Cornelia runs a production and casting company up in Seattle with her husband and her sons, which I think is interesting, but not because I was thinking about my acting career, and wondering if she wanted to cast me in her next film, since I wasn't, since I don't have an acting career, I just hang out with actors and film makers. Because they're interesting.
And then it was time for the "Best of the Northwest" award, worth $2,000, which was sponsored by Integra Telecom (who I wrote about a while ago) and I told her I'd met the CEO and he was nice.
They announced her name! Cornelia won! She won the big cardboard check and one of those amazing, 40 lb. bronze Bend Film awards! And it was so exciting, our whole table clapped and clapped, and I grabbed her camera and took some great pictures of her accepting that heavy statue thingy. She was beaming, just beaming!
After all the other awards, we stood up and hugged and chatted about how she's a 5th generation Washingtonian and I'm a 5th generation Oregonian, and maybe we're cousins, and then Karen went somewhere, and then some bigwigs came up to talk to Cornelia, which is good for her career, so I decided to go home and let her move on with her career without me.
We didn't exchange emails or phone numbers, I didn't have any business cards, and I didn't even tell her about this blog, because I was a crasher, not there to network. I was there to swoop in and spread cheer and clap for winners. And get compliments on my looks apparently, but I swear that was just a bonus!
I am anonymous to her, she probably can't even remember my name. It's kind of fun, in a way, to be a representative of the Bend Community who just happened to sit by her and share in her joy and accomplishments. I want her to remember Bend as a friendly town, even though we were freezing, freezing in that tent. The air is cold here, but not the people. That's what I'd like her to remember.
But I would like to find Karen, because I want her to make me a neck tie skirt. So, if anyone has any information about this amazing seamstress/fashion maven who sells her creations out of her living room, sometimes, when the mood strikes her, please let me know.
And of course, if anyone's looking for a middle aged chubby mommy to play a middle aged chubby mommy in their next film, I'm happy to audition.
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8:59
Senior Portrait Session::Kaylee
» Paula Watts Photography
Last week, I took Kaylee's senior portraits on a beautiful overcast, fall day! The lighting was perfect and she was an amazing subject. And I was excited to get to show off my new chair! Here are a few to enjoy!
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Victorian Cafe::Music Festival Pictures
» Paula Watts Photography
Last weekend I shot for the Victorian Cafe in Bend. They were hosting the Bend Roots Revival along with Parrilla Grill across the street. Boy, do they know how to throw one great party! The images were fun to take as I was listening to bands, drinking beer, and meeting new 
people, and of course climbing on the roof of the Victorian Cafe for some great overview shots! All around, I'd have to say that my job aint too shabby! “Be the change you wish to see in the world" -Ghandi
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Alicia and Nick's Wedding::Aspen Hall
» Paula Watts Photography
My good friends Alicia and Nick celebrated their wedding at Aspen Hall this weekend. They are an amazing couple who I was lucky enough to get a little time with before the wedding to take them around and photograph. The results are stunning images showing off Bend, Oregon's natural beauty. Enjoy!
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23:46
Cherished Friends, Cherished Memories
» Jane Johnson Photography
This family is one of my favorites, which made our session together so fun. Unlike most of my posts, this one will be somewhat light with text. Partly because it's nearly midnight, and partly because my poor brain has had a little too much action recently (see the post below).
However, I will say that Josh and I have truly fallen in love with this family, and they have proven to be really great friends to us. The shoot was fun (even though we came across the rattlesnake I talked about in a previous post), and ended with an outdoor table at a yummy restaurant (with false promises of a milk shake for the girls). I'll admit the food was good even though they gave Josh creamer for his coffee that expired two months prior... But the company made the evening, and I think by the end of the night I had brainwashed Sophia into deciding she wanted to be a photographer when she grew up. (Although I'm nearly certain the thought has already left her adorable little mind.)
And with that, I'm off to put this weary brain to bed.
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Finishing the Race
» DT from da FP
I read the blog of a friend today and in it she wrote this:
"Dear Christian, when that last lap of the marathon is about to kill you, that famous second wind can sustain you, the powerful wind of the comforting, helping Holy Spirit." (thanks Diary of 1)
How very true this is. And how I needed that today. I can do nothing without Him. His strength sustains me and His Spirit carries me through the most difficult challenges I face each day. The struggles are always different and their intensity differs from day to day but He still carries me through. If I will just lean on Him and not my own understanding.
Will you lean on Him today? Will you allow Him to carry you through? Try it!
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Aspen Trees
» Paula Watts Photography
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Charis Baby
» Paula Watts Photography
Charis is just about the cutest girl in there could be! Here are a few pictures from our time together today! Enjoy!
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6:59
Time To Pass The Baton At BendBubble2
» Bend Bubble 2First I have to re-post a great cartoon from over on Dunc's blog:
That about sums it up, right there. Lib's in a festering ball of rage over Palin. BAM! McPain just barely taps the knee to get the reflex-action going.
I throw out a little McPain love, and the Lib-Musketeers of BB2 (Brucey, Dunc, and a variety of hbm's) come out guns blazing.
Duncan McGeary said...Yeah, but I'm not thinking it's funny.
Oy. Played like a fiddle. By Buster, no less.
There are some pretty sick minds here.
I'm with HBM.
"...the troll stink in here is overpowering. Hasta manana, maybe."
hbm said...Gotta go -- the troll stink in here is overpowering. Hasta manana, maybe.
And brucey-kins has posted a vast litany of Bush-hatin' goodness:
bruce said...
It's hard to run on your record of the last eight years, six of which you controlled Congress and the Executive. And the last two years you stopped anything you didn't agree with by making the Senate unable to stop filibusters.
When your signature foreign achievement is a multi-trillion dollar quagmire in Iraq, and your signature national achievement is Medicare Part D, with it's prohibition on bargaining over drug prices with the drug companies and a donut hole big enough to sink a blue-hairs Buick halfway through the year, all you can do is run on lies and innuendo, hoping people believe that you will run things differently the next time.
Even when you have the exact same guys behind the scenes. And as long as a significant percentage of Americans watch Faux News, they actually have a chance.
The Homer Simpson channel, run by Reagan/Bush Sr comunications advisor Roger Ailes, will fight for the Repubs right to the bitter end.Oy.
What's funny/sad is I have so many bionic-liberal friends (this is Bend, CA after all), who don't even identify with the Democratic Party anymore, because they are moving left at such a rapid speed, that even the Dem's sound like corporate suckups, spewing Nazi bile.
Repugs? Well, they insist they don't even know what the Repug Party is about anymore. White Noise. Some sort of Phantom. Menace.
Diane: Ahhh... this is probably going to be seem a little strange. We hear better on this channel. Don't ask me why. Well... ah... I guess I will call her. Carol Anne. Ah... i t's mommy, sweetheart. Ah, we want to talk to you. Please answer me baby. Please answer me. Please talk to me, bunny.
Marty: Look at the dog.
Diane: Are you with us now? Can you... can you say hello to daddy?
Carol Anne: Hello, daddy.
Steve: Hello, sweetpea.
Diane: It's mommy, sweetheart.
Carol Anne: Hello, mommy.
Diane: Hello, baby. Can you see me? Can you see mommy?
Carol Anne: Mommy? Where are you? Where are you?
Diane: We're home, baby. We're home. Can you find me? Can you find a way to us, baby?
Carol Anne: Mommy, where are you? I can't find you. I can't. I'm afraid of the Light, mommy. I'm afraid of the Light.
This is a standard conversation with my liberal friends. Like talking to a possessed appliance, or something. No one understands it. Even I don't at times.
This is the Achilles Heal of The Lib's, and they don't get it.
The Neo-CON-VICTS are UNAPOLOGETICALLY engaged in RePugnant behavior that would make a f**king billygoat puke, AS USUAL. But they are still engaging MIDDLE AMERIKKKA, that vast bulge of sister-f**king hillbillies, called The Bible Belt.
But the Lib's have gone off on some idealistic race to The Left, to see who can distance themselves from G-Dub's the fastest, and in the most sweeping, radical way they can.
Quoth The Ravin':
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Saturday, 13 September 2008
The Fall Slime Season is in full swing. If you doubt it, check out the two new TV ads just put out by Gordon Smith. In a tactic reminiscent of George H.W. Bush’s Willie Horton ad in the 1988 presidential campaign, the Republican senator’s ads try to portray Smith’s opponent, Jeff Merkley, as coddling child rapists.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
NOOOOOOOOO! AHHHHHHHH!
Willy Week: Smith's Food Plant Hires Illegal Workers
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Thursday, 11 September 2008
Although details are sketchy, Willamette Week is reporting that Gordon Smith’s frozen food plant near Pendleton has been employing illegal immigrants for years.I repeat:
hbm said...
Gotta go -- the troll stink in here is overpowering. Hasta manana, maybe.
Now, see the problem with this DUMBF**K STRATEGY is that Lib's are leaving the ELECTION WIDE OPEN TO McPAIN.
The Lib's think this is about BEING RIGHT. The RePUG's know better. It's about WINNING.
The Dem's are moving left, LEFT OF EVERYTHING & EVERYBODY, in an attempt to distance themselves from Gee-Dub, possibly the worst President of the United States, if you don't count Hitler, Satan or Jeebus.
GeeDub's may actually be the reason The Pug's are re-elected.
Imagine a beach, walled off at both ends. And the beachgoers are dispersed absolutely evenly across the beach. This beach has only 2 snack vendors. The vendors are identical in every way, price, products, everything. Pure commodities. There is only one determining factor about which vendor to choose: The distance away from the vendor.
Traditional American Politics resembles this situation quite closely, and it should be no surprise that what is ultimately achieved is a sort of Unstable Equilibrium, where the vendors move towards center, jockeying for position by millimeters in the center of the beach, despite the fact that there is a vast underserved population on the periphery of the beach.
American voters resemble this situation, except they fall more along a bell curve, with right & left wing freaks on the edge, and the Big Fat-Ass Sister F**king Tubby Middle. For better or worse, this group actually puts people in office.
And the vendors gravitate towards this center EVERY FOUR YEARS. Like clockwork.
But this year, we're going to have CHANGE! Oh yes. Change. So, Oh-Uni decides to make a stand, and move away from The Middle, and goes LEFT... just a little.
And just because he's a little closer to some people wayyyyyyyyyyyy out on the left edge of the beach, and because the other guy has been linked to salmonella, he gains a pretty good flock of new customers in a short time. Some from too far left to frequent either vendor in a long time, they just went without.
Now the other guy sees this, and does nothing. His business was not so great to begin with, and it's still OK, but he feels worse cuz it seems like the other guy just got a bonanza for doing nothing.
So then the other guy goes left a little more. And he gets some more.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
And so it goes with the LEFTY vendor quite a ways from Center & doing pretty well for himself.
But then the guy in the middle decides to move left, because there are some people who are between him & LEFTY that he can EASILY pick up. LEFTY has gone quite a ways left and left a BIG F**KING GAP IN THE MIDDLE.
So RIGHTY moves LEFT. And he picks up customers. Quite a few, in fact. He was going to MIRROR LEFTY's move, and go RIGHT at first, but then he thought about it: Why cater to those wayyyyyyyy out to the right? F**k them. Move left. In fact, move left with impunity. Follow LEFTY!
This is a clusterf**k for the Dem's: They HAVE TO appear to be the George Bush Anti-Christ's. Again, Worst AmeriKKKan President since Idi Amin.
But this GAP is what McPAIN & EVERY F**KING RePug with half a f**king brain is moving into. There isn't a RePug TV spot that doesn't disavow ass-f**king Geo-Dub's EVERY F**KING DAY for the past 8 years, despite the fact that Lib's & RePug's alike have sucked at the Bush Mega-Cock. Yeah, you f**kers voted into Law the Iraq War just as much as any Newt Gingrich Nazi dumbs**t.
Look at the TV: Gordon Smith is running ads 24/7 about how he is GeeDub Hater. Why? Why is he "abandoning" the folks on the beach wayyyyyyyy off to the right?
Because he can. The Lib's, many, like my friend, so far left, they are dry humping the leftist wall, and can't hear ANYTHING over the humpage. These people are not even going to VOTE DEM! They are going to either vote Cynthia McKinney, who is right there with them, humping the wall. Or, they'll fall back to Old Reliable and vote Nader for the 45th election in a row.
And there appear to be many of these Left Wall-Huggers, which is why the Oh-Uni-Bomber started moving left to begin with. They would HOP OFF THE WALL & VOTE DEM if we JUST MOVED FAR ENOUGH LEFT, GAT DAMMIT!
And so like Howard Dean, they start marching that way. Now, the Oh-Bomber has kept a f**king fork in his pocket to stab himself in the leg every time he gains some traction, unlike Dean who got 6-7 Wall Huggers to jump off, and promptly self-destructed.
The Oh-Uni-Bomber has, to date, done it with a deft skill that puts many of his predecessors to shame. He's slick. He's well mannered. He's racially correct, which for a black dude, means he hasn't killed 3 wives, beat 5 kids to death, and contracted the AID's.
So he is smooth. But the f**ker is still moving left. A little persistent voice is still telling him: Distance yourself from Gee-Dub & you shalt be welcomed into The Heavenly Gates.
And so he does. Closely followed by the other guy(s). A whole country moving LEFT, it seems.
But, it's really an illusion. The Vast Middle doesn't give a s**t about "faggots, queers, n****rs, or dykes", and they never will. They will vote the party FARTHEST away from that s**t that they can.
And that party is STILL The Re-Capstone-Butt-Pugs. The bell curve isn't moving, but the parties are moving left, because the right has been poisoned by The Powers That Be.
And Oh-Uni-Bomber is almost to The Left Wall, with McPain, Gordo, and a host of other Re-Pluggers running, not walking, as fast as they can behind him, all trying to distance themselves from The BushCo Nightmare.
That WHOLE RIGHT FLANK is going to start walking to the polls (ie beach vendors) this November, and the first thing they'll find is McPAIN. Even a lot of Centerist Dem's will find McPAIN before they get to Oh-Uni-Bomber.
Think about it Libby's. You're handing it to us on a platter.
OK. I've been writing this crazy mixed-up blog for almost 2 years now. There has been some crazy s**t happen since BEM handed the reigns off to.... some dude he didn't even know.
Remember, a fresh-faced CACB Shorter, selling at $32, and then covering at $24 or so, with an almost visible sigh of relief, and a bit of braggadocio.
Cracker Ass Cracker Broke, 2 yr chart
Little did he know this thing would implode down to the $6's.
Even recently, there was the Bear Stearns fiasco. Can't show you a chart because it is largely taxpayer owned, and the gub-ment hates charts.
Or Fannie. Or Freddie. Fannie went from $68/sh to 68 cents over the past 12 months. 99% LOSS on the largest holder of mortgages ON EARTH. DOWN 99%.
Fannie Mae, 1 yr.
Here's a BusWeek piece outlining The Nightmare Scenario:
The NightmareSo we're golden, right? Well, maybe not. In the vicious-circle scenario, Treasury's intervention ends up being a replay of Japan's ill-fated effort to prop up crippled banks in the 1990s. Increasing the availability of credit delays—but does not prevent—the full price decline needed to clear out the daunting overhang of nearly 4.7 million unsold existing homes as of July.
As the lender of last resort, the government throws good money after bad, first on housing and then on airlines, automakers, and other supplicants. All this against an undeniable backdrop of rising federal deficits: The Congressional Budget Office predicted this month that the federal budget deficit would remain above $400 billion annually from 2008 through 2010, up from about $160 billion in 2007.
In the nightmare scenario, the descent into quasi-socialism balloons the national debt and wrecks foreign investors' faith in the economy. That's the vision sketched out by ultra-bears like Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a brokerage in Darien, Conn. Schiff is passionate on the topic: "The dollar is going to go through the floor, interest rates are going to spike up, and we're going to have a complete financial meltdown. It's going to be the worst-case scenario."
A different school of pessimists says the housing market actually does need a big adrenaline shot from the government. But they say it's unlikely to get one from either a McCain or an Obama Administration because the risk to taxpayers from a much bigger commitment to housing would be deemed too great. The only real beneficiaries of the takeover are the holders of Fannie and Freddie securities, who are bailed out of their bad investment choices, says Robert I. Kessler, CEO of Kessler Cos., a Denver investment firm. Says Kessler: "It's a great thing for the big banks. I don't see any benefit whatsoever to consumers."
Specifically, the Fan-Fred takeover does nothing to help homeowners who can't refinance a home loan because their property is assessed for less than they owe. It also may not be enough to draw in buyers, who are focused more on the risk of declining home values than on the upside of a slightly lower mortgage rate. "I've sat in open houses, and you just can't get people to make an offer," says Edward Cudahy Spalding, a real estate broker in Fort Lauderdale. "You've got to reinflate values in the housing market. I don't know how you do that."
Without more relief for homeowners and consumers, the housing-led recession is likely to deepen. In this vicious-circle scenario, the housing slump depresses consumer spending, leading to job cuts and thus forcing even more foreclosures and bigger spending reductions—in other words, the mirror image of the virtuous circle. Vulnerable sectors include finance; nonresidential construction, which tends to follow homebuilding downward with a lag; and retail, which has so far lost only a modest number of jobs nationally relative to the size of the sector.
Away from Wall Street, the mood is glum. Douglas S. Bartlett, owner of Bartlett Manufacturing, a maker of printed-circuit boards in Cary, Ill., says competition from China has forced him to cut employment nearly two-thirds since 2000, to 87. He hasn't felt any reprieve from the dollar's recent depreciation against China's currency. Says Bartlett: "Fortunately for us, there's been enough of our competitors going out of business that we're able to pick up their work." In Sacramento, restaurateur Ali Mackani was forced to shut down his fashionable Restaurant 55 Degrees shortly after Labor Day because of slower-than-expected commercial and residential development in the area, which he had been counting on to produce customers.
Today's business failures ripple across the economy, triggering more failures. And when the financial system is crippled by losses, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery can flatten out into a wide-bottomed U, says Dan North, chief economist of Euler Hermes ACI, a North American unit of Germany's Allianz Group (AZ) that insures accounts receivable. North says that because of business failures, the number of insurance claims processed by his company was up 80% in the first six months of 2008 compared with a year earlier.
I actually see this country becoming an also-ran on the Worlds Economic stage. This thing will cripple us.
The title of this piece is, "The Economy: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios". This alone should make you wonder: Why are these people STILL wondering about a BEST CASE SCENARIO? Has it even happened ONCE?
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac f**king collapsed last week. Lehman will not survive the day. These f**kers are standing on the deck of the Titanic, at a 45 degree angle, and are debating Best Case & Worst Case Scenarios. Yeah. I'm sure this f**king ship will right itself by magic, and we'll end up safe & sound in NYC Harbor if we just think positive.
The Shire went belly up, Thank God. Soon to be followed by Tuscan Buttplugs of AmeriKKKA, and a raft of other imbecilic ideas. Pollock built what is the Quintessential STD-fest in Forum Meadows, which is probably World-renowned for the Biggest F**king Weeds ever. Here is a picture I took last week:
House in Forum Meadows, obscured by Worlds Largest Weed
Let's not forget Randy Flesh-Eating-Virus Sebastian.
Hi, I'm Randy Sebastian, and my asshole whistles when the wind blows, cuz I've done been f**ked by The Bend Oregon Housing Market (The BOHM)! Plus I got the motherf**king Flesh Eating AIDS!
Can't forget Becky Breeze, the Matriarch of Bend Realty Agents. This woman made her first million through 25 years of hard work, persistence, and persevering through the toughest market in the USA. Then she proceeded to lose it all in 18 months due to RE greed-fueled Kool-Aid overdose, administered by her pimp, Umpqua Bank.
We've watch Desert Skeeze crash through the $100/sf barrier. We saw COBA & Costa ethics vanish like a ghosts fart. We'll soon see many more fall, including our proud City itself, which will soon go broke. We can only hope every f**king City Councilor in Bend is ass-f**ked by Gayn****rs from Outer Space. In jail.
Where Randy Sebastian? I'm gonna tear that White S**t Up!
And not to mention the THOUSANDS of KICK ASS COMMENTS. All culminating in a hell of a onslaught, the likes of which I certainly have not seen anywhere before.
Holy S**t! We hit The K-Burger...
So we've had Good Times. But there have also been some Bad Times. The Audia - McDonald, et al suicides come to mind. Despite what others think about me -- that I'm a blood-thirsty dingo that would love nothing more than to rush into a neo-natal unit & tear the throats of 20 dying babies -- I am actually bothered when Bad Things Happen To People.
And killing yourself is an indication that people are getting a little too Involved in this thing. Yes, it's an RE bubble, and there'll be some Winners & Losers... but KILLING YOURSELF? I mean, come on. Don't f**king kill yourself over this thing. That's just f**king crazy.
S**t there was even THE OUTTING of IHateToBasteYourButterball! AHHH! I've been OUTTED! OH NOOOOO!
OK, joking aside, it's still sort of weird, cuz someone was hoping some BODILY HARM would just happen to befall yours truly. THAT is how serious these local loons are about their RE. They are willing to KILL or DIE for their cause.
I mean, DUNC (yes DUNC) -- a guy I forwarded as MAYOR -- started spewing like a Playa Hate Uh to ME!
Duncan McGeary said...Yeah, but I'm not thinking it's funny.
WHAT! He's talking MEXICAN! Oh no! What the hell's he saying? OH S**T!
There are some pretty sick minds here.
I'm with HBM.
"...the troll stink in here is overpowering. Hasta manana, maybe."
And I am starting to read general economic pieces that exceed mine in their dire prognostications:
Bailouts Will Push US into Depression
"We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe," Hennecke said on "Worldwide Exchange."
Admittedly, this is a f**king dumbass frog, and the sort of Depression France should go through is one caused by a volley of f**king THERMONUCLEAR WARHEADS that we rain down on their ass. F**kers. I WILL NOT forget Libya.
Anyway, it's been a pretty weird couple of years. The RE Bust when from a DENIERS sort of phenomenon to Story One on the National News every night, as well as the Number 1 political hot potato. For the love of Christ, The Bulletin & KTVZ are actually running negative piece once in awhile. That's a f**king miracle.
Cascade Business News is not. And I do not expect them to. Ever.
Pamla The Incredible Hulce Andrews: Super Retard to The Rescue!
But I think I've said my piece. It's time for someone else to have a go. Besides, as I've said before, I sort of "positioned" myself Delta Negative on this Housing Bust. So I started out this thing with not a lot of work & a whole lot'a bloggin'. But the tables have turned, and I am working more hours than I ever have in my life. And sometimes I hit the keyboard at the Wii hours of a Sunday morning to bust out a post, cuz I'm working like a dog, even on weekends.
But fear not, I'm going to leave BB2 up, alive & kicking. My plan is to do a few more "Open Post" weeks, where I just have a token post entry to break up the comments into more manageable sizes. Thousand f**king comments is a lot to sort through. But pretty soon BB2 will go the way of the doo-doo. Yes Timmy, I said DOO-DOO.
My hope is that someone starts BB3, or the like. It's still a hell of a popular topic. F**k.... 1,000 comments in a week in a little po-dunk town like Bend, on a topic as narrow as the RE bubble? That s**t is begging for an outlet. And the failure of Big Bend Media, despite their acknowledging it, is still grossly inadequate.
I took over this thing from BEM, wayyyyy back in late 2006, back when BEM wrote these word on Dec 17, 2006:
A transitional periodSoon enough this blog will be shut off. Not because I'm less interested in Bend's economy, but because the level of attention I was paying to it was unsustainable.
I guess the same goes for me. I don't want to start neglecting this crazy thing. I've had a hell of a time with it. S**t... I had no idea I could write so much. Or maybe Buster is right; I wrote the same f**king thing 200 different ways. I don't know.
I guess I had a great time responding to BEM & others at his blog. He would start a thread & there would be a hell of an exchange. Well, back in the Dark Ages of blogging in Bend circa 2006, BEM's blog would get 45 comments & we thought we were Kings of the World. It was awesome!
But I think I've taken a lot of what was in my head, we have thrashed the hell outta the topic, and then we moved on. But I think someone else needs to "start the threads" for awhile. At least I hope someone will.
And I guess I should put forth what are principles that worked for me: I started this blog with the idea that there would be ZERO INTERVENTION in the comments. I never deleted a single comment, EVER. I'm really not sure how I'm seeing some of those "Deleted by author" placeholders in the comments. I didn't think that was possible. Maybe you guys see something I don't. I don't even know how to delete my own comments.
Hmmmm, point is, there is another Skywalker... nope wait, there is another blog on roughly the same topic, but for some whacked reason, it's moderators feel the need to collect IP's, and ban people, and, well, basically MEDDLE. I hate that. And as we saw with THE BECKY BREEZE FIASCO, it never works. If you're going to start something, open 'er up. It's going to hurt, cuz folks are going to stick a White Hot Poker up your babies ass. OK, that's just part of the deal.
But if you don't open things up, you'll end up with dogs**t. Not to point fingers, I'm just saying. Even encourage "flowery:" comments: I have personally used the terms "smelly f**king cunt", "who's got the trench cunt", and "your cunt smells like a hobo died taking a s**t in an open-pit sewer" at least 100X on this blog so as to let the guard down of commenting women, children, and Buster, a well-known Super Cunt.
Think about it: What has been the cornerstone for this blog's "success"? My riveting posts? My Lord, no. No, it's because Buster, brucey, Tim, hbm, et al can actually carry on an open, honest debate without FILTERS. Without bulls**t. That Buster calls all of us stinking cunt losers is just a bonus.
Just think. It's going to be real tempting to moderate comments FOR THEIR OWN GOOD. You're thinking it right now, Brucey. Lib reflex. Would you have liked it if I DID THAT? OK? Don't moderate. People will just go to BendBB.
Anyway, I also suppose I don't want to end up like one of those f**kers that hangs on too long and keeps going long past their prime. Like Lance Armstrong, Michael Jordan, or Rush Limbaugh. I can tell it's time for someone else to take over....
What a long strange trip it's been. And I have had a hell of a time. But it's time to hand the reigns to someone else.
Truckin got my chips cashed in. keep truckin, like the do-dah man
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin on.
Arrows of neon and flashing marquees out on main street.
Chicago, new york, detroit and its all on the same street.
Your typical city involved in a typical daydream
Hang it up and see what tomorrow brings.
Dallas, got a soft machine; houston, too close to new orleans;
New yorks got the ways and means; but just wont let you be, oh no.
Most of the cast that you meet on the streets speak of true love,
Most of the time theyre sittin and cryin at home.
One of these days they know they better get goin
Out of the door and down on the streets all alone.
Truckin, like the do-dah man. once told me youve got to play your hand
Sometimes your cards aint worth a dime, if you dont layem down,
Sometimes the lights all shinin on me;
Other times I can barely see.
Lately it occurs to me what a long, strange trip its been.
What in the world ever became of sweet jane?
She lost her sparkle, you know she isnt the same
Livin on reds, vitamin c, and cocaine,
All a friend can say is aint it a shame?
Truckin, up to buffalo. been thinkin, you got to mellow slow
Takes time, you pick a place to go, and just keep truckin on.
Sittin and starin out of the hotel window.
Got a tip theyre gonna kick the door in again
Id like to get some sleep before I travel,
But if you got a warrant, I guess youre gonna come in.
Busted, down on bourbon street, set up, like a bowlin pin.
Knocked down, it gets to wearin thin. they just wont let you be, oh no.
Youre sick of hangin around and youd like to travel;
Get tired of travelin and you want to settle down.
I guess they cant revoke your soul for tryin,
Get out of the door and light out and look all around.
Sometimes the lights all shinin on me;
Other times I can barely see.
Lately it occurs to me what a long, strange trip its been.
Truckin, Im a goin home. whoa whoa baby, back where I belong,
Back home, sit down and patch my bones, and get back truckin on.
Hey now get back truckin home.Rock on, my brothers.
Feel FREE to use the comments to organize, link & otherwise coordinate BendBubble3, or some such, to your hearts content!
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13:48
Will The Property Taxes Go Up or Down When I Buy?
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
One of the most commonly asked questions from a buyer is what will the property taxes be after I purchase this home. Oregon Property taxes are a little different than some other states. The sales price of the home has no baring of the tax assessed value. The bigger question a buyer should be asking in Oregon is - have any new bonds been approved by voters, are there any new assessments and so on. Bonds and tax increases for such things as schools, fire and police protection can increase your taxes.
Generally your assessed value can only go up 3% a year - of course this can be changed if we the voters were to vote in favor to change this. That does not mean your taxes will go up 3% per year - they can and sometimes do go up more than that. This brings us back to bonds and budgets - if the voters prior to you purchasing approved a bond or additional budget the rates for these will increase. Then your taxes will go up.
La Pine, Three Rivers South, Sunriver and Bend all have a tax base which you can find on the Deschutes County Website.
Bookmark To
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7:53
MC Hammer vs Bay-Watch-Rock Oh-Uni-Bomber. Advantage: The Hammer
» Bend Bubble 2Seems like the topic of interest was the unveiling of the McPAIN ticket.
OK, say what you want about this gal on a personal level, and most of the knee-jerk lib's quickly revealed themselves as such when she was tapped, but it was a masterful strategic choice by the Repug's. They could NOT have made a better choice.
OK, the situation was that Oh-Uni-Bomber was in an almost insurmountable lead, touting change, whatever the hell that means... I guess to lib's it means No More Bush. So then, even McCain jumps on the Change Bandwagon.
See, that's a loser for McCain: He White, he Old, he Repugnant, he More Of The Same. Change does not work for him, no matter what he does. Oh-Uni-Bomber can legitimately tout change, McCain can't.
Then what? Well, of course, Oh-Uni-Bomber tries to shore up his weakness, Experience, by choosing Joe Carpet-Bomber Biden. Oh-Uni-Bomber moves away from Change to a more Centerist ticket.
There are two wonderful chances for the Pug's to take advantage of lib hot-bloodedness, their typical weakness, and why the Re-Pugsters typically kick their ass: Superior Strategic Game Play. First, Repug's have second mover advantage. Two, they know Oh-Uni-Bombers move.
This race is like a sailing race, and the Uni-Bomber's boat looks thusly:
Uni-Bomber sailboat, circa Aug 1, 2008
And here is the McCain ticket:
McCain Garbage Barge, pre-Palin
See, when you're in a sailing race, and you have a huge advantage, you DO NOT try to keep winning, you don't try to GAIN on second place. You HOLD. You MATCH the loser, you match Second Place. You look BACKWARDS, and you do what they do.
Well, when Oh-Uni-Carpet-Bomber looked back, all he saw was McCain flailing around, looking ahead, trying to do what The Bomber was doing. Change was being flogged for all it's worth by both ships. This is Good for The Bomber.
But then the Dem's tried to cover their weaknesses by dragging Angry White Dude onboard, cuz Whitey loves to sail. He also loves to hurl black dudes over the side, but that's another story. So Uni moves centerist, by dragging Carpet-Bomber aboard.
Uni-Bomber stops flogging CHANGE, and goes Old Skool Whitey. Uni, who has been flogging Change from Day 1, moves Away From Change, that which got him here in the first place. Strategically though, this is a game-theory dominant play. He looks backwards, and he see Whitey. He sees Whitey for 250 years. He needs Whitey.
Now, Garbage Barge McCain sees this, more accurately The Strategically Superior Game Playing Repug's see this, and realize The Weakness:- They are HOPELESSLY behind.
- They are sailing in a tub of s**t
- They are flogging Change, but it comes out as Hypocritical Bile
- Their Captain is a bumbler
Someone, whether it was McCain or not, is debatable, but Someone sees the situation and divines some critical requirements:- Uni-Bomber has chosen his Path in the Woods, by moving first. He has chosen The Path MORE Taken.
- McGarbage CANNOT compete head-to-head, he sails a Waterworld piece of s**t.
The Uni-Bomber has made a potential mistake, and abandoned Change. He really had no choice. The question is: Can McGarbage capitalize?
This is EXACTLY where we beat you hbm, every time. The Repug's are a repellent lot, usually have a boring, uninspiring message, and lie like rugs. But the f**kers can analyze a situation, and capitalize in cold, calculating form, almost every time.
For this little scenario to work, McGarbage needed several things:- He needed to steal the Change Thunder.
- He needed LESS of himself on his ticket, and more of the other guy.
- He needed to Take The Path LESS traveled.
- He needed to scoop up The Abandoned.
My God, there is no argument he did it in commanding style.
His choice could have been a weak, me-too shot across the Uni-Bomber bow. That would have been The Death Knell. Lieberman? Death knell. No-name Whitey Senator? Game Over. There were a plethora of Bad Choices. And Business As Usual lib's in the same spot probably would have f**ked it up.
But Palin was just an inspired choice, and her "delivery" to the AmeriKKKan People was a masterpiece. Even her unveiling could have lost the Race, easily.
The Change Thunder was convincingly torn from Oh-Bomber.
"Change"? Oh-Bomber's NO-CHANGE choice was pushed right back in his face in a mega-stuff.
McCain handlers KNEW that More Old Man Whitey was a dead-bang loser. Hot Young Sexpot was a Hail Mary. Admittedly, like most Hail Mary's, Palin had a hell of a chance of blowing up on McCain.
But her speech was also PERFECT. It was flowery, devoid of detail, dodged issues, and almost certainly full of lies.
But it worked, cuz it grabbed Hilary-voters by the boatload. Women voters will flock to this woman. She is flawed IN ALL THE RIGHT WAYS. And she knew it, and pressed all the right buttons. She scooped up The Abandoned.
McCain took The Path LESS traveled, and believe me, the Road To the White House is almost ALWAYS won by taking The Road More Traveled. Someone figured out that if he followed the Uni-Bomber, he would never win: The Bomber would just look backwards, match the loser, and coast in to an easy victory.
But now he can't look back: McPain has taken a different route & is off the map.
Man, and you could see it in the Oh-Uni-Bombers face after the RNC: he was complainy, backpeddling, listless. In short, his thunder was gone. He looks tired. McPain is f**king on fire.
Again, it does NOT matter who you are for: This thing is a study in Strategic Game Play Mastery. McCain was a hopeless loser, losing ground, bailing water, a sinking garbage barge.
Now? He has singlehandedly ensured this will be a historic election: A woman or a black dude will either be Prez or runner-up. There was almost certainly HUGE pressure to go Old Man Whitey by McCain. Palin was the gutsiest, boldest, Hail-Mary, Road LESS Traveled play out there, and his only real chance, and he took it, despite the fact that it Almost Never Wins the White House.
Now? He's got a chance. Palin brought him to even, plus or minus. She was PERFECT. Again, she is FLAWED in all the right ways. She's Spunky Porno Queen to McCains Grim Reaper Death Mask. She Hot, he ass-ugly. Those two are a dream team.
Vote McPain, and no one gets hurt. And I'll do a pole dance.
They may not win, but before the RNC McCain had ZERO CHANCE. I had NO PROBLEM jumping ship from my Repug-Independent stance, and put McPain back in the race for my vote. Palin brings a HUGE number of alienated Repugs back into the fold. She also appeals to the Lib-strong, Welfare Crowd, with her pro-breeding, unmarried statutorily-raped children.
Retards? Again, what a masterful stroke. Redneck husband? Check.
And top it off that she is a Hot As Hell MILF. Dudes vote for that s**t. Check Starz. Better yet, check Marz.
When I watched this woman's speech, I got chills. Why? Was it cuz she was hot & I like The Hotness? Well, in small part, maybe.
No, it was because I KNEW I was watching a hopelessly lopsided blowout, turn into a nail-biter with 2 minutes to go. Palin turns this thing from a boring, business-as-usual crapfest, into something I actually am interested in.
I look at McCain with New Respect. Someone there is on the ball. Someone KNEW what had to be done. Go WAY off the Beaten Path to the White House, and just go into one of those plays where guys lateral the ball 20-30X because they are on the last play of the game, and crazy-ass s**t is their only hope. And it is working. And you can see The Whites of The Libs Scared-Ass Eyes.
They had a Sure Thing in Oh-Uni-Bomber, it was a slam dunk. Palin reeled in the disaffected Repugs. She reeled in Hillary Humungous-Mega-Cock Followers. She reeled in The Special Olympics. She reeled in White Trash Welfare Single Mothers with 6 mongoloid illegit children fathered by 19 black dudes. That alone is about half the women in the Midwest.
Again, it was a sight to behold. A gaping maw, an insurmountable lead, a smug presumptive winner, a sullen doomed loser, Game Over. All UNDONE in one night. The lib's quivered under The Hammer Stroke of Palin. You could smell the fear in the comments. McCain went from Inevitable Loser to seeing the whites of their eyes. And the libs quaked in their boots. The Oh-Bomber was visibly rattled.
This thing went from Yawner to a Dog Fight in One Day. Again, it was due to Masterful Strategy by McHammers handlers. They saw a Lost Cause, and pulled a Desperation Hail Mary out of their hat, and it worked. I didn't find a SINGLE WOMAN who was not inextricably drawn to McPalin the next day. They were lib's. They were in Oh-Bombers pocket. Now, they were thinking. God, it was great.
And I know this diatribe will bring out cries of IHTBYB IS A REPUG WHORE. OK. That's fine. But remember I like the Olympics, regardless of country, winner or loser. I like competition, I like a good fight. And McPain brings this thing from 100% Yawner blowout, to Close Call in one shot.
I had 100% intention of going Oh-Bomber. Now? Palin is whackier, weirder, changier, and hotter than anything Oh-Bombers got. He chose angry Carpet-Bomber. Palin's got boobs. Again, a master stroke of Hail Mary game play. I'm thinking again, and last week I was not.
You can gauge the effectiveness of MC Hammer-Pain by the vitriol of the lib's in the comments. They will whine, bitch, moan, and turn into Sullen Turds. Haven't learned a F**KING THING. Start thinking, you hot-blooded dumbf**ks. Repuggers stole your thunder via Superior Strategic Thinking. Start DOING THE SAME. Don't fall into your familiar rut. You emotional f**kers get completely worked up, rubbed into a lather by the Repugs, you can't subdue your Bush-hatred for 5 f**king seconds, and THINK.
But you won't. You'll rant in the comments about my love of Nazi's or some s**t, and lose the chance to put your guy in office. We're PLAYING YOU AGAIN. And you'll get played. Cuz we know you better than you do.
Know thyself? F**k that. Know thy enemy. That's where the Repugs steamroll over the lib's. We play you like the emotional puppets you are.
You're at Even now. And it is Standard Op Procedure for Dem's to start their BITCHING, MOANING, and WHALING at Even. Look Bay-Watch-Rock: He's already STARTING.
Know thy Enemy. F**k, when the lib's pull their head out & learn that, they'll be unstoppable. Look at the F**kStick that's been in office for nearly a decade. We elected this cocksucker TWICE. Repugs played us like a fiddle. TWICE. F**k, the Repugs have a leaden anchor in the form of Bush-Whacker, and we are PROBABLY GOING TO WIN THIS THING. AGAIN.
F**k me. This is like 9/11 all over. We had overwhelming World-wide support & empathy. There was NO COUNTRY on Earth that wasn't "For" the U.S.
Today? Due to BushWhacker, we are the Worlds Pariah. We are Has Beens. We are The Worlds Warmongers. No one feels sorry for the U.S. Even our staunchest allies are on the fence.
We turned an INSURMOUNTABLE LEAD, into a SURE LOSER.
Hello, Bay-Watch-Rock Oh-Uni-Bomber. Same s**t, different day. F**k. The Repugs ain't smart. But they are smarter than you. This is the Lib's 9/11. F**kers will turn Worldwide support into a cluster f**k.
Pull your f**king heads out. That's you & your kind, hbm. Play it cool, aloof, emotionless, instead of sticking your f**king cocks in the Repug Glory Hole, and wondering why we put dobermans there instead of Starz strippers, like we said we would. F**k. Wake Up White Peepul.
Lib's: "Gee, I hope there ain't murderous f**king doberman's in there again. But my Repug friend told me there definitely won't be, it'll be strippers this time. Is that Bay-Rock in the white van? It looks like Hillary is f**king him in the ass again with her Humungous Mega Cock. Cool."
Folks, the Dem's could win this f**ker, but you watch: Brucey's cries of "McSame!" will start to appeal less than Palin's thong. hbm's cries of "I'm Scared!" will be drowned out by MC Hammers You Can't Touch This. Wash, rinse, and repeat... country-wide.
They will stick their f**kin cocks in the Glory Hole, and wonder why they pull out Chicken Fried Steak. No thinking, just cram'er in there. Dumb f**kers. They need $10K for granny's operation, and Bob Barker is asking if they want to keep the $20K he's handing them... or take what's in the f**king little blue box.
F**kers ALWAYS choose the little blue box. Like f**king clockwork. Repug's worked them into a lather, and they are already unzipping and walking towards the Glory Hole the second they saw Palin's titties. Pavlovian bitches. You watch.
I'm trying to wake you f**kers up, but you will, as always, take personal affront, and cram'er in the Glory Hole, not thinking a wit.
Think McFly. THINK.
Repugs grab Lib's by the cock and lead them to the Glory Hole.
Dem's remind me of people who troll the parking lot for 20 minutes to get a front row spot, and Bend home sellers who simply refuse to list or sell their home anywhere near market value: These people have forgotten Life's Objective Function.
I LOVE people who do this in a parking lot. They will either wait right near the front row, or block traffic waiting while someone goes through the whole rigmarole of unloading their stuff, and getting ready to drive off, something that can take 15 minutes.
And these f**kers don't give a f**k about the inconvenience they cause others or themselves. They've forgotten what the f**k they are really trying to do: Get in and out of the store with the smallest hassle & time expenditure.
They will wait and wait and wait for a front row spot, but when it comes time to leave the store, they will still make the round trip to drop off their shopping cart at the nearest little cart depot. They make the round trip to one of these things in the end anyway.
That's why I always park on the "edge" of parking lots, as close to a cart dropoff point as possible. I avoid the front row lunatics who clog the center, and I'm going to make a trip to the dropoff anyway, so I just park near one. I do this even when I can get a front row spot, because I feel that all the activity and franticness of front row headbangers increases the chance that my car will be scratched or hit.
Same logic goes for most of Bend's current lot of home sellers: They are going to get MORE than they paid for their house, by God, or they just won't sell. Or they are going to get that 2006 fixated high price they can't let go of. Or some dumb s**t. These people have lost sight of Life's Objective Function: Like front row trollers, they believe that extracting Their Price from the World is the best way to achieve their end of maximizing their income or net worth, or whatever.
But they don't take into account the opportunity costs of NOT receiving a sensible sale price. They don't take into account possible lost wages from unemployment here, and compounding that with NOT being able to have a job elsewhere. They don't realize they will maybe NEVER get their unreasonable sale price, and if they just took market prices today, they could invest & have more in 3-5 years. They forget that in a market gone to s**t, they MUST take a lower price... AND they will also pay less on whatever they buy next.
And again, Lib's fall into this same trap. They FORGET that beating up the other guy, bitching, moaning, and complaining NEVER will get their guy elected. Bitching about McPain and telling people NOT to vote for him won't get Obama elected.
Remember G Dub II: I mean Bush was loathed by the AmeriKKKan people, and Lib's just harped on the point, thinking that would win them the election. No. They forgot one little thing: Repuggers actually implore people to go out and... wait for it... VOTE FOR THEIR CANDIDATE. I know. A miracle of logic.
Lib's Objective Function always seems to turn to beating up the other guy, while stupid old Whitey Repugs stay on target, and hound their base & borderline Repugnants to actually go VOTE. This is why Lib's always end up in the parking lot, when Repuggers are inside the door.
OK, enough of that.
From marge's blog:
The Notices of Defaults in Deschutes County tops the sales. In August 211 Nod's were filed and there were 188 sales of all types of Residential real estate.
Stats as of 9/2/08 for August 08:
SFR, Bend Sold=89 at a Median price of $278,800
SFR, Bend July Sold=103 at a Median of $289,000
August 07 Sold=145 homes @ $350,000 Med.
August 06 Sold =196 homes @ $377,000 Med.
And you see from the recent National City survey, that at $285K medians, we are still 46% overvalued, the second highest in the country. That's a fair value around $195K.
I remember near the middle of 2007, a fresh-faced, feisty BendBB took my bet that medians would go below $300K by the end of the year, a bet I narrowly lost. But here we are at $280K medians, and we are blithely getting predictions like this:
Anonymous said...We were openly condemned here 2+ years ago when buster & homer said $180k, now we can argue how far below $180k.
tim said...>>I agree that we will over correct however I don't believe it will go below $150k.
As I recall, most were fairly dubious of my thinking that we'd sink below the magical $300K mark (no one else took this bet), but what a difference a year makes. I guess you'd expect a lot of people on this blog's comments to have dire predictions of doom, but I am starting to hear this sort of thing out in The World.
Oh Marge, they will. How can they not?
I have work acquaintances who are predicting absolute doom in Bend housing. Many times their accompanying remarks include the absolute shameful mismanagement of the City of Bend, and what they think is an inevitable BK by the City. They talk about the $40MM we'll have to spend at Cooley/97, $40 mill we clearly do not have. And they wonder how the hell SoniaCo can make revenue projections that include JR land sales, if we will never finish Cooley/97? And usually either they, or several friends of theirs, are losing their house or going BK.
Seriously. Topics that drew baffled stares a year or two ago are actually being initiated by the general public. They're "informed" all of a sudden. They know about mounting financial issues in this town. And they are f**king pissed. People are starting to unveil the Kool-Aid fueled regime that has run this place for so long, and they are waking up & questioning what the f**k is really going on. They've been told every f**king day for years that Things Are Great, and they now KNOW that is 100% bulls**t.
This is a place where the media WANTS you to forget Your Life's Objective Function. OK, it should be something along the lines of "I want to maximize my net worth over time.", or something like that. That's a Financial Objective Function, but you get the idea. Bend media doesn't really give a s**t about f**king you over in any other way than financially.
But, stop for just a sec and think about this: Do you remember right after the top & prices were starting to drop a little, and people actually started making BUYING PLANS when medians hit $300K? Or $275K? Or whatever?
Well, we're there. And what's funny is NO ONE is still talking about buying. Everyone is talking about selling & how much lower things will go. And there is a bone in my head that makes me BUY in the stock market when I hear this.
But this ain't stocks. Stocks requires I HAVE MONEY to buy stocks when I get this feeling. This is housing. And for 9 out of 10 people, when they want to buy, someone HAS TO loan them the money, they don't have that much cash lying around.
That's why this is different, that's why this thing will continue to go lower & traditional "contrarian" thinking won't work. It's a deflating bubble, and it'll carry on farther than most people think possible.
And the lenders are going away:
bruce said...Timmy, what do you think the odds are on Fannie and Freddie making it to Monday? 50/50?
I mean, WTF? Did anyone even think that this would be a sentence that would ever be uttered? The answer is NO. Fannie & Freddie, the object of my last derisive post, are actually going away, make way for UnKKKle Sam. We might wake up one day this week & find these behemoths GONE.
Housing is f**king dead meat. And if housing is dead meat, Bend is f**ked. Dead. This place will wipe out BILLIONS & BILLIONS of homeowner net worth in the next decade, and you don't just shrug that off, with no ill-effects.
This place will actually start shrinking. I had occasion over the Summer to travel a bit, and happened across Idaho Falls. Nice place, 50K people or so. Close to the Tetons & Yellowstone. And it was like seeing Bend circa 2015.
Abandoned malls. Everything in a low-grade state of disrepair. You could see the outer-reaches had gone to seed. Close-in, downtown? Still in relatively good shape. Hell, great shape compared to the Circle Of Death that ringed this place. There was just no sign of prosperity, and there seemed no real way to achieve it. People had this look of resignation on their faces. It was pretty depressing.
We're on our way. The gleam will come off of some of our shiny, metal hulks on Colorado Ave after years of vacancy. Public works projects will just be abandoned or left in disrepair. Of course, we'll go broke. Weeds in all corners.
Just as an aside, I went through Forum Meadows yesterday, and there is a hell of a Weed Grow Operation going on there. And it's the bad kind, not The Good. Yeah, the front yard kind that pushes down house values. Forum Meadows is AWASH in abandoned homes. HUGE f**king weeds. There is one in particular that actually is starting to look like a small tree. Seriously, it obscures the entire front of the house, it's HUGE. Go have a look, if only to witness a curiosity born of what has probably been the greatest weed grow conditions you'll see anywhere on Earth.
Anyway, we're on our way to becoming Idaho Falls. And folks, when you're in a town like that, you FULLY UNDERSTAND why their median home prices are $140K or so. There's NOTHING to prop it up. No one makes anything. There's no way to pay for a really nice, expensive house.
Kind of funny, but we have been so shot full of Kool-Aid in this place for so long, that most people have forgotten that INCOMES EQUAL PRICES ultimately. Someone on BendBB uses that in their signature.
Almost EVERYONE I know whose bought a house in the past 4-5 years bought DESPITE the full knowledge that it was TOO EXPENSIVE, and out of their price range. But... remember.... "if you don't buy NOW, you may NEVER be able to afford a house!" Uh huh. I remember that well. And I remember how many people fell for it. That was the rallying cry for almost every single home sold in bend between 2004 and 2007. And that is a s**tload of homes.tim said...
>>I agree that we will over correct however I don't believe it will go below $150k.
What a difference a year makes. But you think it's bad now? F**k, this is nothing. Bend still has a nice polish on it. Wait for a few years of deferred maintenance on EVERYTHING. We'll look like a tired old, worn out mountain town in no time. Man, and if you wanna see where there are a s**tload of desperate sellers, go into little dinky ass mountain towns. Half the people are broke, the other half are on their way.
Oh Marge, they will. How can they not?
Fannie & Freddie gone. 46% overvalued. City on it's way to BK. Billions & BILLIONS of net worth wiped out. 40% vacancy downtown. Mass personal BK's.
We are on our way to being another sad little town. And with incomes like ours, we're on our way to $140K medians.
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18:36
Property Disclosures in Oregon
» Central Oregon Real Estate Blog
Property Disclosures in Oregon are often the source of contention and fact finding missions. When a seller lists their property for sale they are required to complete a 4 page disclosure statement (really only 2.5 pages of questions) that asks all kinds of questions.Buyers are provided this disclosure during the escrow period and sometimes prior to escrow. By law a buyer has 5 business days to review and withdraw from the contract if they disapprove of the disclosure. Each question has a series of boxes for the seller to check. The choices they have are yes, no, unknown and on some of them n/a.
Many Central Oregon Sellers are absentee owners, those of second homes, vacation properties or investment rentals. When these sellers complete the property disclosure they often times know nothing about some of the questions. A couple examples are; Has this home ever been used as a drug manufacturing or distribution place. Since a seller does not want to say no and have the buyers find out from the neighbors that the past tenants were selling from the property they will often say unknown.
What does this do to the buyer? It raises a big red flag - they generally assume that unknown on this question is a real yes. Central Oregon does not have an easy website to verify this information - and very few of the homes - in fact last I checked only 1 in La Pine had been “condemned” due to manufacturing. (that home has been torn down and a new home sits on the property now)Another question that is often confusing and causes red flags concerns underground tanks - almost every disclosure in La Pine should say yes there are underground tanks - however they are septic tanks not oil tanks and you should differentiate this. If the box is marked yes the Seller should mark what type of tanks are on the property.
My message here is two fold - Sellers please answer these questions accurately and to the best of your knowledge - if you do not know the answer - maybe you should do a little checking instead of giving the buyer a reason to doubt you. Buyers when you receive this document please read it carefully, ask your agent questions - research those that you have issues with and let your agent be of assistance.
Bookmark To
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Gnocchi - The road to perfection
» DT from da FP
I had a craving for gnocchi yesterday. Funny how things go Emeril was making it on his show when I sat down for my afternoon break. (That was weird.)
So, I got to it. It seemed easy enough. Oh, ignorance is BLISS!
Everything seemed to be going ok until I cooked the little buggers. It wasn't so good for me.
Anyway, I tried again today with not much better luck.
So, I'm on the road to the perfect gnocchi. Every girl needs something that she can make better than anyone else in the family and this might just be my thing. I'll have to keep you informed.
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17:33
First Time Buyer TAX CREDIT
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogIf you are a first time home buyer (or not owned a home for 3 years or more) you may qualify for a great tax credit up to $7,500. This credit is like a 0% interest loan - there are some stipulations and a portion of it would need to be paid back if you sold your home. A list of bullet points is provided below;
Bookmark To
* The tax credit is available for first-time home buyers only. Purchaser (and spouse) may not have owned a principal residence in the previous 3 years.
* The maximum credit amount is ten percent of the cost of the home and can not exceed &7,500
* Property eligible is any single-family residence that will be a principal residence.
* The credit is available for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.
* There are income limits. Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.
* The tax credit works like an interest-free loan and must be repaid over a 15-year period. Each year 6.67% of the credit to be repaid – if you received the full credit that is only $500.25!. If sold before 15 years than remainder of credit is paid at time of sale.
To view the summary or full bill visit H.R. 3221 Housing and Economic Recovery Act
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His Turn!
» Paula Watts Photography
And this is his portrait! He is probably my favorite subject to take photographs of!
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18:04
Action at Bend’s Community Center
» Life by NateOur community spent a few hours helping out at Bend’s Community Center yesterday serving lunch to the homeless folks that came through. Such an amazing experience and I hope to continue the relationship with Taffy, the woman who runs the Center. They could really use volunteers. Hungry, eager for a hot meal They come Steady rush they file [...]
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22:53
Central Oregon Vacation Properties
» Central Oregon Real Estate BlogCentral Oregon offers a great vacation like lifestyle year around. Because of all the outdoor activities year around many of our buyers are second / vacation home buyers. Many times a vacation home buyer is not looking to be in a resort. Some second homes are just simple cabins with simple furnishings. A second home is not always for the “rich & famous.”
With prices adjusting and rates still good now may be the time for you to find that cabin in the woods. La Pine offers homes starting under $100,000 although you can find much nicer and bigger homes that may not be what you are looking for.
If you have been considering a second home now may be the time to talk with your tax professional or financial advisor the time may be perfect for you.
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deep
» Bend Oregon RestaurantdeepThe last time we visited deep it was for my wife's friend's birthday. I tried the tempura bacon and it was everything that I had hoped it was. After we ate our French appetizers at bistro corlise, we stood on the sidewalk trying to think of where to go next. We considered Goombas, Cork, and Marz and then my friend said deep, and off we went.
deep is expensive but fun. We sat at the bar and put together a plan of attack. We settled on The Nine Bites, Saba, Crab BLT, and a Tempura roll.
I absolutely love doing things like the Nine Bites - The Chef’s Daily Selection of
Nine Different Hot and Cold Tastes of Deep for (ugh) $16. It is such a cool way of getting little tastes of all sorts of goodies. We had kobe beef, avocado and bacon tempura, scallop, rib, salmon, tuna, squid, tofu, and beets. I claimed the beef immediately but paid the price as I got stuck with the effing beets. I also got the fatty tuna and enjoyed all three bites. The wife got the rib, squid, and tofu. All was great and I was jealous that I didn't get the deep fried bacon.
And now, my fellow OmniBORes, I present to you one of the coolest sushi rolls I've ever had....the Crab BLT:
Crab roll with watercress, bacon, and tomatoes. Crab + Bacon = Smiley Face BOR. This roll was great BUT it was also $14....ouch!! The tempura shrimp roll was $12 and the Saba was $6. Deep is very expensive all around but it is quite good.
On Monday, look for my review of Mio Sushi ... great sushi, not expensive.
deep
821 n.w. wall street, suite 100
bend, oregon 97701
telephone: 541.323.9841
hours of operation:
open 5 p.m. daily
[www.deepbend.com] -
bistro corlise
» Bend Oregon Restaurantbistro corlisebistro corlise has a happy hour menu with $5 appetizers and $5 glasses of wine. We've visited bistro corlise before and had a great dinner. Since our last visit they have made some nice changes to the atmosphere. If you haven't been to bistro corlise yet, go for some happy hour items to get a feel for the place and you'll probably end up staying for dinner.
We sat at the bar and asked about the happy hour items and our waitress/bartender explained that they had a red and white wine. I totally forgot what the actual types or names of either were but I selected the red and the wife took the white. Both were very good and heavily poured. We were happy for only $10.
On our visit, they had three appetizers that were only $5 each.
sanglier - boar rillettes, crustini, dijon mustard. The photo for the boar rillettes was a little blury but that's ok since it's not much to look at. Two scoops of boar patte with some little crustinis and a dollop of mustard. It was my second favorite of the three appetizers. I spread a good portion on the crustini and then added the mustard. Creamy boar goodness.
terrine du style de la campagne - country style pork terrine, vegetable accompaniment, whole grain mustard. I'm not a fan of terrrines. It was good for what it is but I wouldn't get it again. But, for only $5, it was a great experiment. The wife liked the green beans.
porc - chilled pork, smoked air dried ham, oil cured olives, red peppers, zucchini mousse. YES! This was my favorite. The wife really liked the chutney of peppers and it went great with the pork. I'd gladly get this and the Boar dish anytime.
I'm pleased to see that bistro corlise is still around in this time of restaurant closings and still sitting over there next to Merenda's and I'd recommend that you get in there. If not for a full meal, go try one of the appetizers and let me know what you think.
bistro corlise
916 NW Wall St.
Bend OR 97701
[www.bistrocorlise.com]
After bistro corlise we continued our World Tour of Bend. Stay tuned...
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Detail Shots
» Paula Watts Photography
Sometimes, its in the details... -
Tower Theater
» Paula Watts Photography
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Analysis of Juniper Ridge Tilt Towards Residential Uses
» Juniper Ridge InfoI've put together a table that shows how planned land uses at Juniper Ridge tilted heavily towards residential, and have pretty much stayed that way even though Allan Bruckner was quoted in the Bulletin as being happier that more land was to be used for employment purposes. The numbers denote acres:Plan DeveloperOTAKJRPC-RR&D/LI643350
350-400
Office/Commercial465075-150Residential154510500-600Mixed Use757575-150University154200175-235Parks/OS183175150-175Roads/Facilities245140125-150
Note that the R&D/Light Industrial land use of 350-400 acres in the C-R plan that was approved includes 100 acres for 10+ acre parcels. That's it. Les Schwab already has 12, with an option for 8 more. Suterra has formally requested 10 acres. Pepsi has informally requested 10 acres. At this rate large parcels will be gone in a year or two, unless the City ignores the master plan and continues to sell large plots.
This is exactly what the City seems to be doing in the case of the Suterra request. My next post will cover that-a 10 acre parcel adjacent to Les Schwab, either north or west. This overlays planned parcels of 2-4 acres. And I have questions about how the City is moving forward with this sale despite JRP's exclusive three-year option on the 50 acres surrounding the Les Schwab property. Are we setting ourselves up for another lawsuit?
To say nothing about the emergence of a possible new sales deal with JRP, which may or may not be discussed at tomorrow's City Council work session. While, at least publically--I suspect it will be discussed in Executive Session.
Just as a $3000 per trip Bend-taxpayer-funded "incentive" to help defray the $9000 per trip cost of temporarily fixing Cooley Rd was discussed in the last Executive Session, and is revealed in the letter to Suterra from Econ Dev Director John Russell. That is if ODOT can be bent over and twisted into agreeing with the City's plan to increase congestion at Cooley/97 just like they plan to do around Simpson and Columbia for Proterra's development of the Mt. Bachelor Bus Parking area, according to the BULL:Bend roads compromise may pave way for similar agreements
A compromise agreement between the city of Bend and a developer over road improvements in southwest Bend could set an example for other areas of the city...
Proterra’s plans for a mixed-use project with condominiums, offices and retail space were shot down by a city hearings officer earlier this year because of the amount of traffic the project would add to nearby roads...
City officials agreed that at that latter two intersections, they would tolerate slightly more congestion in the near term as a result of the development’s traffic...
The compromise with Proterra — in which the city will not require full traffic improvements for new development, tolerating slightly more congestion instead — sets a new precedent...
By agreeing to the compromise, the city also believes it can pressure the Oregon Department of Transportation to do the same thing at Cooley Road and U.S. Highway 97.
ODOT has said no new construction can happen near that intersection - including at the city’s 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge development - unless the city comes up with $40 million to upgrade the intersection.
Instead, the city is trying to reach an agreement with ODOT that would allow slightly more congestion at the intersection, which is most clogged during the morning and evening rush hours.
Mayor Bruce Abernethy and Councilor Bill Friedman agreed at Monday’s meeting that the city’s move to allow more congestion on its streets would put it in a better position to convince ODOT to do the same thing.
So the Council is saying "we like screwing over our own citizens, would you please do so, too!"
Just what we Bend citizen's want--even more congestion in the name of developer subsidies. Right. I bet you agree with that, kind reader. Just a little more "temporary" congestion in front of Lowe's on 97 during rush hour.
To be continued...
Sources for plans:
OTAK 8/05
Juniper Ridge Partners (JRP) 5/2/07
Cooper-Robertson, approved by City Council 7/16/08
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Slow Monday
» Hack BendYou know, I got nothin'. So, just some meta-pointers.
Check out the calendar periodically to see what's happening. It's not definitive, but I try to keep it up-to-date with interesting events (and free or good-deal ones too).
Also, the contact form is there in case anyone wants to submit anything—links, news, questions, whatever. If you're submitting press releases, then there's a fair chance it'll get run—but I don't run every single one that is submitted, so don't be disappointed if it doesn't show up on the site.
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11:41
Ticket writing on a Monday
» bikebuzz
Looks like the Bend Police were cracking down today.
They were pulling over everyone running lights over near Portland Road.. including a bicyclist. Wow they do write tickets for bicyclists.
Unfortunately they missed the 2 clowns riding their bikes on the wrong side of the road downtown without helmets and buzzing people on the sidewalk. I got buzzed by one of them who thought he was really funny.
Seems funny how much people on bikes, foot, and car get away with right downtown. It is almost like there is no law enforcement except parking meter folks.
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Chicken and Nacho Cheese
» Bend Oregon RestaurantWe went to see the Bend Elks play the night that the famous San Diego Chicken was visiting. We drank Cascade's Golden Glove Ale and ate peanuts for the first couple of innings and laughed as the SD Chicken played first base coach, heckling the opposing pitcher, and argued calls with the umpire.
On a poorly called strike, the Chicken went nuts on the Ump and pulled out a visual acuity test (the eye exam chart thingy). He had quite a few tricks and gags which were very entertaining in between innings.
We enjoyed the Chicken so much that it made it difficult to find a break to go get more ball park food. But the wife made her move and was able to score some goodies from the concession stand. She brought back one of my all time favorites. The nasty-ass Nachos.
When I was kid, my mom would send me up to 7-11 for Nacho cheese. I'd play a game of Shinobi and then get ready to scam the store out of gallons of cheese. See, you could get a plate of nachos for like $1.19 from 7-11. But my mom figured that its silly to put the nacho cheese on top of the chips, which wastes precious space in the container that can be filled with cheese AND it makes the chips soggy.
So I was instructed to pay for the nachos and ask for a bag to carry them in. I was to dump the chips into the bag and then go over to the push pump Nacho cheese dispenser and fill up the nacho bowl. Now, if you've seen the nacho cheese plate at 7-11, they give you a shallow plate for your chips and cheese and then a big dome like lid to cover them up. I was to turn this upside down and use the lid to fill up with liquid gold and place the plate on top to act like the lid. So instead of just a couple of pumps of cheese, I would be there for a good 15 minutes violating the hand pump to get a good 40 ounces of cheese. Pour a little out for the dead hommies and I was on my way back home to feast on Nacho Cheese for a week.
This worked for about a year. Then one day while attempting to take full advantage of my mom's ghettofabulous ways, I noticed that they put holes in the plastic lid! You won this round 7-11. So after that failed, I was sent to KFC for a quart of gravy. That's all, just a quart of gravy. I'll explain that one another time.
Anyway, I can't look at Nacho Cheese without remembering the good old days of trying to get extra cheese and playing Shinobi. I owned the bonus level. It's sort of amazing that Nacho Cheese has not changed in 2,000 years (yeah, if you look closely, you can see that there was a cup of nacho cheese at the Last Supper). It is just as you remember it, (like Lucky Charms) they're disgustingly delicious.
When telling a couple friends about the game and the nachos, my friend "eBay K" wanted to know what nacho cheese actually is. Well, I can't say for sure what was used to make the nacho's at the ball park but I found the ingredients to Frito Lay's Nacho Cheese here.
The SD Chicken stole the show in my opinion. The game started at 7 and for a Wednesday night, my belly stuffed with fake cheese, beer, and peanuts, it was time for bed right around the 7th inning stretch. After watching a gang of kids swarm the chicken while singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." Then half the stadium joined us as we left. The Elks lost 8-2.
Here's a recipe for Nacho Cheese Sauce just for you eBay K:
2 tablespoons butter
2 tablespoons all-purpose flour
1 cup milk
7 slices processed American cheese
1/2 teaspoon salt
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Why we close the Tasting Lounge at 5 pm
» Volcano Vineyards BlogWe frequently get these questions/comments in the tasting room: Why do you close so early? Why don’t you stay open later so we can have a glass of wine before heading out to dinner? I came by but you were closed...
There are several reasons behind our hours that I will address.- The most basic reason is that traditional tasting room hours, from Paso Robles to Walla Walla, are noon to 5. Tasting rooms are not bars – we are here so folks can sample our wines – especially important for the wines we won’t sell to the distributors. It is an opportunity to try before you buy, plus speak directly with someone who can answer your questions about the wine, the winery, the vineyards, etc.
- The tasting room is only one portion of our business – we are a winery and are responsible for the making of the wine, overseeing the vineyards, the marketing , advertising, public relations, online sales, shipping, distribution, special events, compliance and reporting to individual states… and we have no employees, it is me and Scott, with a little help from our friends. It was necessary to set some limits.
- Scott and I were both in the restaurant industry for years. We do not want to be a restaurant or a bar. We feel that many others in Bend are already fulfilling this need.
Staffing is also an issue. Our glass prices are very reasonable from the consumer perspective, but the margins we make are quite low, nothing like restaurant glass prices and a world away from the margins that coffee places enjoy – therefore a critical volume would need to be sold each evening to allow us to break even. - Scott and I have two small children. The family dinner is an important part of our lives, not to mention our bedtime routines with reading books, lullabies, hugs and kisses.
- By closing at 5, the tasting room is available for private parties. We have just a $25 per hour room fee and a $150 per hour minimum of wine sales. Bring in your own food, or have it catered. We can accommodate up to 35 people inside – even more if it is warm enough to use our outside space, or up to 20 for a sit down dinner inside, plus seats for an extra 12 outside, again, weather permitting (for dinners, service is extra). Call or email for more info: 541-617-1102 info@VolcanoVineyards.com
Keep in mind that Wednesdays and Fridays we usually are open a bit later – Scott or I are generally there until at least 7 on those nights. Call ahead and arrange a private tasting if you like…if we’re around, we’ll happily accommodate you with enough notice and within reason.
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Volo - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantVolo RestaurantVolo is awesome and if you have the opportunity to enjoy a meal of small and large plates at Volo, I highly recommend it. I've been to Volo a few times. Once just for drinks when they first opened, once with visiting family where we sampled almost all of the small plates and a variety of specialty drinks, and most recently, for dinner with the wife.
I would have posted about my earlier visits but for some reason, without the photos, I don't think the review is worthwhile. I made sure to bring the camera to dinner. It was a busy Saturday night and we didn't have a reservation. We settled on eating at the bar which is rather comfortable. Just after our drinks arrived, the hostess said that they could seat us at a table if we like. We got the corner table in the back room with a full view of the entire restaurant.
Our waitress, Erin (who was also our waitress on the visit with family), went over the menu changes and gave us her recommendations as well as answered any and all questions that we had.
We started off with a couple plates of the baby greens. The wife chose the lemon vinaigrette and I took the balsamic. We both agreed that we picked correctly. For a $4 salad, it was quite large and was very good. But since it was just a salad, I didn't take the camera out.
When we eat at the fine dining restaurants which obviously are the more expensive restaurants in Bend, we tend to map out a plan for dinner. Like, if I get this, you get that, and we'll swap plates half way through. On this visit, we decided on three small plates and then one large plate and we'd just eat whatever. We selected the Sweetbreads, scallops, and crab cake as our starters and the Organzola Filet as our main dish.
MMMM mmmm, Sweetbreads!! Probably my favorite dish at Volo. Who are the ad wizards that came up with this one? Taking the thymus gland out of the neck of a cow, pig, or lamb, bread it and fry it up like a piece of chicken and then call it Sweetbreads! That's just brilliant. Sort of like calling boiled (or steamed) soy beans something sexy like edamame.
All that aside, the thymus gland at Volo is awesome. Light and crispy breading that is seasoned nicely and served over a bed of Spaetzle (like a mini dumpling) and bacon. The beef Sweetbreads sort of taste like fried chicken if you stretch it.
The scallops were prepared with a port reduction and served with peaches (stone fruit on the menu). Erin recommended this one and we went back and forth throughout dinner about the idea of seafood and fruit. On the first taste I didn't really care for scallop and peach. I liked the port reduction just fine but as I tried the peach with the scallop, it didn't get better. Beautifully presented, scallops cooked perfectly, the port reduction was a great addition and made for a savory dipping sauce, but I'd rather have a slab of pork belly instead of those peaches.
The crab cake is also one of my favorites. The actual crab cake is chuck full of crab instead of a jambalaya of veggies. The veggies were outside, where they belong, and actually quite nice. The combo of Jicama, English Cucumber, and mango (again seafood and fruit = weird) were actually quite refreshing. So the scallops matched with peaches didn't take but this small amount of mango with the Jicama actually went well together.
Finally we enjoyed the Oregonzola crusted Filet served with a potato puree, spinach and a Fig Balsamic Jus. At first I thought the entire filet was crusted but was pleased to find out that only the Gorgonzola was crusted. The filet was perfectly prepared medium rare and melted in my mouth. We grubbed up the steak and enjoyed every bite. The only knock on this dish was the spinach. It was basically steamed spinach...without any seasoning. I think it's funny that the only bad things I have to say about Volo comes with the veggies and fruit. Everything else was insane!
The service was amazing. Erin rocked. Andy, the GM helped us pick some wines that went perfectly with dinner, and the (I don't want to offend but don't know what else to call him) bus boy was on top of things with clearing our plates, restocking the silverware, and refilling the water. My water glass NEVER made it passed half filled (as opposed to half empty).
Brilliant dinner, excellent service, great food, all in all, a phenomenal experience. I can't leave you without mentioning the price. Dinner for two can easily take you over $100. Our dinner was $110 not counting the tip. But for a nice night out, it's well worth it.
Volo
www.volobend.com
919 NW Bond St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 728-0580
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19:40
"The government doesn't have any money."
» Bend Bubble 2Everyone seems to take offense at the "Cali-Banger" moniker these days.
Let's get this straight: Cali-Bangers are more about lifestyle than place of origin, although the two are correlated eerily most of the time.
Cali-Bangers lead a life of excess, of excess in almost all aspects of their life. Their motto, "I can sleep when I'm dead", seems appealing on some levels, squeezing every last drop out of life & such. Seems even admirable, on some level.
But Cali-Banger excess has no limits. It leads to competitive excess, a need to "out do" everyone, in everything. You got a big house, mine's gotta be bigger. You make big money, I gotta make more. You got a hot wife, mine's gotta be hotter & younger, even if it means surgery. And on and on.
What does this have to do with Bend & it's housing? Well, think about the Coasts, in contrast to the Mid-West. The Midwest is priced where it is because large chunks of the Midwest population simply refuse to work 2 jobs, and have their kids working too. They care less about $800 iPhones than Cali-Bangers. They care more about raising their kids than yanking out their wifes C cups & stuffing in double D's. They care more about human decency than Botox.
And this might sound high-falutin', holier-than-thou bulls--t, but actually it will lead to the Coasts, and Cali-Bangers especially, falling farther than anywhere else in the Country with respect to housing.
Think about it: Say you're a Midwest family, Dad working, making blah money in some blah town. OK, your house cost $75K. Everythings OK, making ends meet.
Then the s--t hits. Dad gets injured, car wreck, or something. What to do?
Well, in that case, Mom can work. She won't make a fortune, but she really doesn't have to. They aren't the vassal's of their possessions. They own little, they owe even less. Mom will get them by, and Dad has friends who will help & they're insured. Their means are modest, but so are their needs.
Enter the Cali-Banger. They own 3 huge SUV's, plus a sports car despite being a family of 3. Their house is too big for them. They simply don't even comprehend that they didn't need all that room, they needed to keep up with the Joneses. Same with the cars. Same with the gadgets. Same with their bed sheets, clothes, jewelry, and everything else.
They are making a TON of money, and they work all the time for it. They own a lot, and they owe far more, because they don't buy anything that appreciates, only depreciation. Boob job & Botox, and fat sucked out here & blown back in there. They only value their lives in terms of what they have IN EXCESS of what their friends have.
What's wrong here?
I'll tell you; There is no slack in the system. There's nothing left. The engine is running at max, and it can't give anymore.
The Cali-Banger is self-destructing. It has mortgaged it's life for more. The Cali-Banger is 150% maxed out. It's not just fueling all the possession-obsessed idiocy it can, it's borrowed ALL IT CAN. There's not a penny that isn't already spent, whether earned today or in the future.
This is why I hate Cali-Bangers. Their morals are repugnant, but so are many whitey-ass hillbillies. So are many blacks. But Cali's are worse.
Cali-Bangers will ultimately self-destruct. They will ultimately be carried out. California will suffer like no where has ever suffered in the ANALS (yeah, I said ANALS) of financial history. It's no coincidence they have suffered the first BANK RUN in our lifetime.
California is self-destructing, and it is The Cali-Banger that is their undoing. The hypocrite that preaches Green living & business from their 8mpg SUV. That is a Cali-Banger. Excess, hypocricy, competition, ego, and consumerism gone completely berzerk. THAT is the Cali-Banger lifestyle.
And one other thing: A Cali-Banger will ALWAYS DEFEND, and will never understand why anyone could possibly want to live any other way.
Look at where home prices are the highest. The Coasts. Why? Cali-Banger lifestyle. 2 1/2 incomes. Work more to spend more. Keep up with the Joneses. Period. Midwest? 1 income. There's slack in the system. There's capacity. There's breathing room, financially & otherwise.
Where has this brought us? Besides kids unable to communicate besides txt msg, people working themselves to death? Nothing. This country has adopted the Cali-Banger lifestyle. What is our ONLY REAL ASSET? Our ability to work. And that resource is 150% tapped out; We are not just spending 105% of what we make, we have mortgaged our future consumption to the hilt. And beyond. We have almost NOTHING left to give. Our only Real Resource, OURSELVES, has been SOLD.
In the 50's, we were poor. Sort of. But our expectations were not huge & we saved. Then it was realized that there was HALF this country that wasn't earning. So women began working. On the Coasts. Largely. Then kids.
And so now, to adopt a Cali-Banger lifestlye of 100% gadgets & Paris Hilton dogs that we see on TV, we've mortgaged our lives beyond the hilt. We can thank The Cali-Banger. California is the Detroit of tomorrow. We are digging a hole so large it will bury us all.
The Cali-Banger has made it NECESSARY that EVERYONE MUST WORK to even afford a house. How many people have had to start working in Bend because the Cali-Banger lifestyle has been so whole-heartedly adopted. More for everyone, right? Sounds great!
We all get gadgets, and little dogs, and cars, and big fake titties, and all sorts of great stuff. We've become slaves to Our Stuff. We are living for The Stuff. We'll die to get more Stuff. We have spent everything we will ever earn to live for today. Our government has likewise done the same.
Concern grows over a fiscal crisis for U.S.Carolyn Lochhead, Chronicle Washington Bureau
Thursday, July 17, 2008
(07-17) 04:00 PDT Washington - -- As the Bush administration proposes backstopping mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a $300 billion line of credit and Congress contemplates another economic stimulus, the question is who will bail out the government?
"People seem to think the government has money," said former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. "The government doesn't have any money."
A rare consensus has developed across the political spectrum that the government's own fiscal affairs are precarious, with an astonishing $53 trillion in long-term liabilities, according to the Government Accountability Office.
To put that number in human terms, the debt has reached $455,000 per U.S. household. As that debt grows, the United States increasingly relies on foreigners, including China and Middle East oil producers, for financing.
"The factors that contributed to our mortgage-based subprime crisis exist with regard to our federal government's finances," said Walker, now head of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a group established to raise alarms about the nation's budget. "The difference is that the magnitude of the federal government's financial situation is at least 25 times greater."
Baby BoomersThis year's presidential election coincides with the first retirements of the 78 million people born between 1946 and 1964. The first of this Baby Boom generation may now collect Social Security. In three years, they will join Medicare, the giant health care program whose finances are commonly described as out of control. Medicare accounts for the bulk of the nation's long-term liabilities.
The presidential candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, have not addressed what the aging of the Baby Boom generation means for the federal government. Their brief forays - Obama's suggestions to raise the payroll tax on high-income earners to buttress Social Security and McCain's description of Social Security's financing as a disgrace - have been met with furious attacks.
Both promise to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on new tax cuts and spending programs. Their health care proposals concentrate more on expanding access than controlling the soaring costs that are driving the federal budget problems and squeezing workers and businesses.
Health care costs"Health care costs are just amazing," said John Shoven, director of Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research. Total health care costs now consume 16 percent of the economy and are headed quickly toward 30 percent, Shoven said. "Social Security is a big problem, but it's dwarfed by health care. Even the housing problem is dwarfed by health care."
Just the built-in rise in spending on programs for the elderly will cost about 25 percent of workers' payrolls over the next generation, said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Robert Greenstein, director of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, agreed that "the nation faces large, persistent, long-term deficits that ultimately risk damage to the economy. We agree that policymakers have to make tough choices soon."
There is consensus, too, on what needs to be done: Cut spending and raise taxes. A bigger problem is how to contain health care costs, but some form of rationing is necessary, experts said.
Only disagreementThe only real disagreement is whether the government's fiscal condition will lead to a financial meltdown, or whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to right itself without a sudden loss of confidence and a flight of foreign capital.
"People on Wall Street think I'm Dr. Doom & Gloom," said Kent Smetters, an economist at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and a former Bush Treasury official. "I believe we could have a financial crisis like we've seen in South America or Asia. It could easily happen, and under current policy will happen in the United States. People say, 'Gee, give me a date.' Obviously, that's impossible, but the longer we wait, the higher the probability. Could it happen in the next decade? Absolutely."
Alice Rivlin, budget chief in the Clinton administration, discounts the possibility.
"We're a much stronger economy than Argentina," Rivlin said. The government "can handle borrowing in the range that would be necessary in a recession," she said. "What we can't handle is the cumulative long-run obligation."
Financial markets are often fixated on the short-run, and the government's finances are far from transparent. Unlike corporations, the government is not required to state its long-term obligations. Crises of confidence, like today's banking problems, strike suddenly when a tipping point is reached and investors decide to flee.
The government's fiscal problems are "like termites in the house," said Jackson. "You don't notice it until foundations are eroded."
"I had such a frustrating meeting the other day on the Hill, where one staffer said, 'We don't have a problem until Wall Street tells us we have a problem,' " said Maya MacGuineas, head of fiscal policy at the nonpartisan New America Foundation. "By the time the financial markets tell us we've gone too far, it will be too late to fix this in any rational way. We are the toad in boiling water, where it's getting hotter and hotter and nobody's really noticing."
Will they still buy?The key is whether foreigners will continue to buy U.S. debt. They now hold 45 percent of U.S. Treasury securities, and in all about $11.5 trillion of U.S. public and private debt, say UC Berkeley economists Ashok Bardhan and Dwight Jaffee.
Chinese entities, including sovereign wealth funds that invest government savings overseas, own about 10 percent of U.S. Treasury securities. Even a minor change in China's investment policy could have a major effect on the dollar's value and cause "a sizable increase in interest rates," the economists said.
Still, because of a shortage of creditworthy debt instruments worldwide, and the large role of U.S. institutions in global credit markets, foreigners have little choice but to invest in the United States, they said, predicting "slim chances of abrupt change."
Action needed soonWhoever's right, all agree that the sooner the problem is tackled, the better. "Like almost any financial problem, if you don't work on it, what happens is it compounds with interest," Shoven said. "There are lots of ways to fix it, and what we pick is none of the above."
The staggering U.S. debtThe federal government's finances are in worse shape than its annual budgets show, because the government is not required to state its long-term obligations, which work out be about $455,000 for every household in the nation.
Breaking down the numbersCurrent liability:
Social Security: $6.7 trillion
Medicare: $34.1 trillion
Total long-term government liability: $53 trillion
Source: Government Accountability Office, Long-term Fiscal Outlook, Jan. 2008
Where it goesU.S. debt held by foreigners as of mid-2007:
-- Foreign holdings of U.S. equities: $5 trillion
-- Foreign holdings of U.S. corporate bonds: $3 trillion
-- Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities: $2 trillion
-- Foreign share of U.S. Treasury securities: 45 percent.
We are a country on the precipice of utter destruction. It is due to The Cali-Banger. The 3 hybrid SUV-driving, fake tan & fake tits, 3 iPhone, celebrity-worshipping, self-obsessed, self-consumed, 4 mortgages, hideous Cali-Banger. And they've come to Bend. And they are remaking it in their image. And everyone seems to think this is fine.
Our one past savior is productivity. The rate at which a static amount of work yields still more output due to efficiency & improved tools we use.
But we have always grown at faster than this rate, because we were on a slow but continuous borrowing slope. We consumed more than we produced by borrowing. The crisis you are seeing today is the result of that lifestyle. So we produced extra purchasing power with 2-3% productivity gains each year, but we also borrowed 3-4% from future earnings, which is essentially negates our future earnings.
You might think that some slimey bastard you know, who's just moved in and brought all his heinous Cali-Banger toys with him is The Ultimate Cali-Banger. No. No, the Ultimate Cali-Banger would need to continuously spend so far beyond their means, it is literally unbelievable. The Ultimate Cali-Banger would actually FIGHT to spend money on the utterly ridiculous. The Ultimate Cali-Banger would be REVILED The World over, and looked upon with complete disgust.
It seems obvious that The Ultimate Cali-Banger is:
The US Government
Our government, AT OUR BEHEST, is pissing away our efforts at a catastrophic rate. We are at war, yet again, and The Spoils? Right, the spoils are basically a Huge Toilet. The Worlds Biggest Outhouse. The Spoils of War are CRAP.
We are The Worlds Colonialist. Duck & Cover, cuz Here We Come. And as just about any Colonialist can tell you, COLONIALISM IS HIDEOUSLY EXPENSIVE. It costs much, and yields next to nothing.
We are worth LESS now than at any time in recent history.
How much oil it'd take to buy the USAt the recent price of $140 a barrel, it turns out to be a mere 400 billion barrels, or just about the combined reserves of Iran and Saudi Arabia.
By Scott BurnsMost of us view the world through dollar glasses. It's perfectly reasonable. Dollars, after all, are the currency we use in daily life. And those lenses, until recently, were distinctly rosy.
When we asked, "How much is that in dollars?," we usually liked the answer.
But it may be time to ask another question: "How much is that in barrels of oil?"
Trust me, others are doing exactly that.
That's when the world starts to look very different. It also looks more than a little scary to the U.S. Today, the net worth of the entire country is equivalent to a mere 400 billion barrels of oil. That's a smidgeon less than the proven reserves of two Middle Eastern countries: Saudi Arabia (264 billion barrels) and Iran (139 billion barrels).
At more than 40 times its 1970 price, oil has outstripped the value created by a full working generation of Americans in a period of dramatic technological change and innovation. During the same time, the value of American business shares, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($INX), has risen only about 15 times above its 1970 level.
I find that hard to believe. After all, in 1970 the Internet was only an arcane toy for academics. Computer memory was desperately expensive. Intel had just been formed and was introducing the first dynamic random access memory chip. Bill Gates had yet to enter (or drop out of) Harvard and was five years from founding Microsoft. Steve Jobs was years away from creating the Apple II and was decades from launching the iPhone. AT&T was still a single national company, owning all of the regional Bell companies.
No one was yet thinking the U.S. post office was a quaint institution, soon to be treasured for its many buildings that could be converted to trendy condos. Phone calls were expensive. Sears, Roebuck was an important retail stock, not a real-estate play by a hedge fund manager. All surgery was invasive. And it was still believed that stomach ulcers were caused by stress. Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin had not yet been conceived, let alone applied to Stanford, where they would create Google.
All of that dynamism and creativity pale against the price of oil. Looking as far back as 1970, America has never been worth less in barrels of oil.
I learned this by measuring the net worth of all U.S. households and nonprofit organizations in barrels of oil. Every three months the Federal Reserve estimates the value of our collective tangible assets, financial assets and liabilities to arrive at our net worth. It's the whole enchilada -- all our cars, our houses, our durable "stuff," bank deposits, stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Everything. Then it subtracts all our mortgages, consumer credit and other debt to arrive at our net worth.
This year's floods in the Midwest are projected to reduce the corn harvest by 700 million bushels. Look for higher prices on meat and soda, and more ethanol imports from Brazil.At the end of March, for instance, our collective net worth as a nation was $56 trillion, the second straight quarter it had dropped. Divide $56 trillion by the recent $140-a-barrel price of oil and you get 400 billion barrels of oil as the value of America, a fraction of our national value in 1998, 1995 or even 1990.Either oil is too expensive or America is too cheap.
YearHousehold net worth* Price of oilBarrels to buy America1970
$3.4 trillion
$3.18
1.1 trillion
1975
$5.1 trillion
$7.67
670.3 billion
1980
$9.5 trillion
$21.59
438.6 billion
1985
$14.2 trillion
$24.09
589.7 billion
1990
$20.3 trillion
$20.03
1.1 trillion
1995
$27.7 trillion
$14.62
1.9 trillion
1998
$37.4 trillion
$11.18
3.3 trillion
2004
$48.1 trillion
$42.00
1.1 trillion
2007
$57.7 trillion
$120.00
481 billion
2008
$56 trillion**
$140.00
400 billion
The last time we worth this little, was 1980. We were practically just hobbled by an oil shock. We were mired in a quagmire of stagflation.
And guess what? Things got really great after that. Well, mostly. Reagan-omics itself almost crippled this area in the 80's. But the country as a whole experienced HUGE wealth gains. Times were good.
So it'll happen again, right? Great time to buy, right?
I don't think so. Back then, we weren't leveraged to nearly the extent we are today. We were still coming into the Great Computer Revolution, and the Chinese were still yet to become the HUGE producers (not consumers) of junk beloved the World over. Oil & commodities entered into massive price declines.
Of these things, we can at best look forward to some unknown technological revolution, which is at best in it's infancy today. And even if we do find it, it's gains have been largely spent by a pattern of government individual borrowing. We are tapped out. That's why it really is different this time.
And it's a Global Phenomenon. Everyone (except for the Chinese & Middle East) is tapped out. In a planet of Cali-Bangers, we are clearly the Head Banger.
Producers will out.
Producers will win, consumers will get crushed, and we are the ultimate self-medicated (on debt) consumer. And I'm sure the Chinese & Iranians are chuckling everyday, KNOWING that capitalism has had it's run. And it's finally going to collapse in the Ultimate Minsky Moment.
And if the US is the Ultimate World Cali-Banger, then Bend is the Penultimate Cali-Banger town. I've never seen a place so consumed with it's own munificence. Celebrating & wallowing in it's own glory. Holding up a mirror to behold it's own beauty.
F--king pathetic.
Listen, being a Cali-Banger doesn't mean you have to come from Cali, it's just a hell of a correlation. But it has been known that Cali-refugees were literally born in the wrong place, and they knew it. Like a transvestite, they knew they were inhabiting the wrong body right away. Here is a test to compute your Cali-Banger Quotient:
1) Do you own a Denali, Yukon, or Escalade? If yes, and you are a 2 person household, add 10pts. If you have 2 kids, or haul crap in it in a true work-related fuction, add 5 pts.
2) Are you from Southern Cal? Add 10pts. Did you arrive between 2003 and right now? Add another 10pts. Did you BUY anything (home, townhome, doesn't matter) on the Westside? Add yet another 10pts.
3) Did you start up your own business when you got here? Add 10pts.
4) Eaten at Merenda, Deep, or anywhere in The Old Mill in the past month? 10pts.
5) Fake titties anywhere in your family or bloodline? Add 20pts. Realtor? Make it 30pts Botox? 40pts.
6) Bend Athletic Club? 10pts. Juniper Center? Subtract 10pts.
7) Did your last bike cost over $1,500? 10pts. When you roadbike do you where spandex? 10pts.
8) Did you sell a Cali house, move here & pay cash for you first Bend home? 20pts.
9) Own a iPhone or Blackberry? 10pts, I don't care if it's for work. I know an iPhone doesn't work here. Cali-Banger don't care.
10) Are you pro-"Green"? Have you bought Yet Another Automobile, parked a gas-hog, and started driving a Prius or some s--t to work? Add 20pts, you f--king idiot.
You pass the Cali-Banger threshold by scoring a 50 on this test. Actually a true Cali-Banger will get a zero on this test. They simply refuse to listen to reality.
Cali-Banger isn't really a person. It's a code for what's wrong with this country. We're all of us turning into these wretched monsters. It's our tolerance that allows it.
We have started to tolerate this horror. We glorify it. We glamorize it. We worship it.
I, for one, have not. I HATE Cali-Bangers. I don't suffer their bulls--t in silence. I don't fall for their wounded puppy bulls--t. I loathe them. They ARE WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS COUNTRY.
Go back to your s--thole & corrupt your own kind. F--k you & Get Out.
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MAN Pedis
» DT from da FPYes, you read it correctly. I did mean MAN Pedis. I gave my dad and my husband pedicures the other night while we watched a movie. My poor dad has trouble getting down to his toes these days, so I stepped in and gave him a trim. My hubby has never had a pedicure and confessed that he just rips his toenails when they get too long. I had no idea!
If you ever want to see two men melt in to giant pools of butter just start rubbing their feet.
It was funny to see their faces go from tough guys to puppy dogs as I soaked their feet in hot water and then rubbed them with foot scrub, trimmed their nails and then rubbed them some more with lotion. M said he couldn't feel his feet anymore. (that's sayin' something for a guy who cuts trees all day.)
It was actually my pleasure to do it and I'm glad they both are walking around with happy feet this week.
I wonder if I can get them to watch chick flicks now. Maybe the promise of a little pedicure will do the trick! Hmmmmm - I'm sure I can work this to my advantage somehow.
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8:47
Move to Bend Oregon for the Bull Trout Fishing
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Bend Oregon is home to some of the largest Bull Trout in the Pacific Northwest and the United States. The Metolius River which is about a one hour drive west of Bend is the spawning ground to a great Bull Trout fishery.
The Metolius River springs from the ground at the base of Black Butte and flows into Lake Billy Chinook. Lake Billy Chinook is technically a reservoir as it is backed up my Round Butte Dam. The Metolius River, Crooked River and the Deschutes River all flow into the reservoir.
Bull Trout are an endangered species in Oregon with the exception of the Lake Billy Chinook and the Metolius River fishery. The Metolius maintains a steady flow of pure water at a moderate temperature year round, ideal for Bull Trout Spawning.
Bull Trout closely resemble Dolly Varden which is an anadromous trout found in coastal streams. The Dolly Varden migrates to the ocean to feed and then spawns in the coastal rivers. The Bull Trout is a land locked cousin.
The Metolius River and Lake Billy Chinook provide a year round fishery for large Bull Trout. The river is strictly catch and release of all fish including Bull Trout and restricted to artificial flies and lures downstream from Bridge 99. Consult the current issue of Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Fishing Regulations.
Matt Johnson, a Bend real estate broker, and three of his friends recently took advantage of a 65 degree day in February and landed and released 9 huge Bull Trout while fly fishing the Metolius River. The largest was close to a whopping 32 inches! Fly fishing for Bull Trout is not an easy proposition but these fishermen have figured it out. Most fly fishermen put in many hours before hooking a large “Bully.” Landing one is another matter.
The Oregon State record was caught in the reservoir in 1989 by Don Yow. It was a gigantic 23 pounds and 2 ounces. Biologists say there are larger fish present today.
Lake Billy Chinook is full of Kokanee Salmon which is the primary source of food for the big trout. These salmon are plentiful and help Bull Trout grow fat fast. They will however, eat anything that swims as long as it is bit size. They do take big bits.
Even thought the reservoir is open year round the Metolius Arm is closed during the winter months and open March first thru October 31. The best time to catch large Bull Trout in Lake Billy Chinook is March thru April in the Metolius arm. Normally the big fish will come out of the deep water into the shallows to feed at this time.
They can usually be found in 10 to 20 foot of water. Any lure that resembles a six to twelve Kokanee is best. Fly fisherman can set up a wind drift along the shore and cast large streamers into the appropriate zones.
Trolling for big trout is also popular. Large silver plugs such as Rapalas and Rebels are successful. Some fishermen will use down riggers putting their lures at the appropriate depth which is usually 15 to 20 feet. Be ready for a strike when you cross a main lake point. Cut herring is a popular bait when trolling.
Some anglers will cast to the shore. You can either set up a wind drift of use an electric trolling motor to keep your boat at the appropriate depth. Keep the boat in 15-20 feet of water and cast into the shallows. Big Bull Trout can sometimes be found in 3-5 feet of water if the wind is blowing with a good chop on the water.
There are some years when the fish don’t move into the shallows early in the season. If this is the case jigging may be the ticket. Use your depth finder to locate the large schools of Kokanee in the Metolius Arm. This happened in 2006 to Daryl Loveland of Bend. He caught and released a 14 pound Bull Trout in 80 feet of water with a 2 oz jigging spoon right off the bottom.
Current Oregon State regulations allow one fish 24 inches or larger to be kept per day. To fish the Metolius Arm of the reservoir it will be necessary to purchase a Warm Springs Tribal fishing permit. These permits can be purchased in Culver at one of the two grocery stores. You drive through Culver on your way to the Reservoir.
Winter and early spring are the best times to fish for large Bull Trout. The river can become a little crowded in the summer and Lake Billy Chinook is a well known water skiing lake. Please release all Bull Trout as they are not very good eating. Plus, that 15 pounder may grow up to be the next state record if you release it. If you get one over 23 pounds and 2 ounces, keep it. You will have a new state record!
If you are in the market to move to Bend Oregon for the fishing now is the time to buy! Prices are down and there are a lot of good choices of quality homes.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com . To see more information on Bend Oregon click on the link below. [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com] If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Homes Are Selling in Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Bend Oregon homes are selling if they are priced right! I just closed another escrow on the sale of a home in SE Bend. It was on the market for less than 60 days and the owners had their cash in 71 days.
It was a good older home that needed a little work but it was priced right. The seller utilized our “Step To The Market” approach to marketing their home and it’s sold!
I closed a home last month on the golf course at River’s Edge for $629,000. The buyers are from California and feel they got a great buy. I also closed another home last month that sold to different California buyer. They bought a beautiful home in SW Bend that’s close to the Deschutes River.
The Bend Oregon real estate market is slow. There are not many serious buyers. But homes that are priced right are attracting buyers and sellers are selling their homes if they are priced right.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com . To see more information on Bend Oregon click on the link below. [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com]
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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9:29
Bend, California
» best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever hadI feel as though there was an attempt to glamorize little old Bend, Oregon. To Hollywoodize it, Aspenize it, Malibuize it. And yet, that very notion seems antithetical to what most people moved here for in the first place. It was the down-to-earth, friendly nature of Bend that attracted people originally.
Not glitz and glam.
I can assure you that the group of store owners who colonized downtown 30 years ago, after it emptied out for the malls, weren't looking to create a 'quaint' shopping experience. They were looking to survive, with cheap rents. Oh, sure. They had dreams, but they didn't realize that as they succeeded, they also brought in the less than original, the big box and mass merchandisers...the kind of stores that could be anywhere U.S.A. and add nothing to the unique atmosphere of Bend.
And following close behind, those who simply saw the surface attraction of downtown Bend, but didn't see the hard work and inspiration. The boho's have pretty much been replaced; the very hardscrabble but creative atmosphere they created attracted people with money.
See, I truly believe that necessity is the mother of invention.
Prima Facia evidence: Star Wars movies. Great when Lucas had to be creative, sucky when he had the money to fill the screens with buzzing extras.
People who have money, don't have to figure out how to make it work with less. But I think people are attracted to that down and dirty creativity, at least subconsciously. Of course, they love the big and new -- Redmond Walmart; and they love the shiny and fresh -- the Old Mill district; they love the expensive and exclusive -- new downtown.
But they also love the creative and the invented and the humble make-do.
So what happened?
They seemed to feel a need to reinvent Bend -- like a new wife, remaking her husband. "Throw away those comics, honey....you don't need them. I know you love movies, but really, it's time for you to grow up." Worse, at some point, they forgot what Bend was in the first place, and then even worse, they simply didn't care.
So we get a whole new concept.
O.K. I'm projecting.
That's why I came back to Bend.
I admit, I was happy that we got some movie theaters and bookstores. But....well, the hits just kept coming.
I've been accused of being hypocritical: accepting all the extra business that newcomers bring while decrying all the changes.
But I have to believe there is a happy medium: as in all things. Moderation. And we've gone way past that. So far past that, that most newcomers have no idea what originally attracted people here.
They came here because others came here. Not everyone, but a hefty percentage.
Sorry, that's the way it looks to me.
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16:02
Detailed review of the Church Basement Roadshow
» Life by NateBen’s not a fan, but he has some interesting points… many I disagree with, though His blog entry can be found HERE. My own statement of emergent is here… can we talk about these things in person, please? I can’t emphasize that enough. It is so interesting to me what people’s thoughts are as it doesn’t seem [...]
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Move to Bend Oregon for the Trout Fishing
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
There are many reasons to move to Bend Oregon. The great trout fishing is one good reason.
Bend Oregon is home to several different species of trout. Rainbow Trout, German Brown Trout, Lake Trout, Bull Trout and Brook Trout are the primary species caught within a short drive from Bend.
Almost all lakes and streams in Central Oregon contain Rainbow Trout. The Deschutes River is world famous for it trout fishing. It begins in the Cascade Mountains Southwest of Bend. It is the source of water for Crane Prairie Reservoir and Wickiup Reservoir. It runs through the middle of Bend and eventually flows into the mighty Columbia River.
Crane Prairie Reservoir is known for its large trout (”Cranebows”). It is about a one hour drive from Bend. It was flooded in 1928 with most of the timber left standing. It is a relatively shallow lake with the deepest sections about 15-20 feet deep near the channels in the spring. The water level drops steadily all summer during the irrigation season.
The Cranebows spawn in the upper Deschutes in early spring and then return to the reservoir and are scattered around the shallower water. As the water warms in early summer the fish start congregating around the channels. Twenty to thirty inch rainbows are common.
All methods of lake fishing work on this strong fighting fish. Fly fishing is very popular once the fish move into the channels. Trolling flies, spoons or spinners is a popular method early in the season. Early summer brings on weed growth which makes it difficult to troll without fowling you lure.
There are numerous campgrounds and one resort on Crane Prairie. The resort provides rental boats, licenses and anything you might need for trout fishing. The owners are always helpful in pointing new anglers to where the fish are biting the best. It is difficult to fish here without a boat.
The Deschutes flows out of Crane Prairie and a few short miles into Wickiup Reservoir. Wickiup has large Rainbow and German Brown Trout as well as a large population of Kokanee Salmon. The Kokanee and Browns are the primary targeted fish.
Early spring brings out the die hard Brown Trout fisherman. They concentrate near the dam and generally troll Rapalas or similar minnow type lures. Ten pound fish are common in the early spring. Since Brown trout are nocturnal you’ll find the serious fisherman on the water at first light. Wickiup is best fished by boat but some large browns are caught from shore along the dam in the spring.
During the summer the Kokanee start congregating along the river channel. Jigging, bait fishing or trolling are the preferred methods for catching the Wickiup Kokanee. The Kokanee spawn in the fall with the Browns following them up the Deschutes channel.
Early morning and late evening is the best time to target the large Browns.Wickiup only has one improved boat ramp which is located at Gull Point. There is not a boat dock so it makes it somewhat difficult for launching and boarding your boat. There are a couple of improved camp grounds as well as many unimproved places to camp.
The Deschutes River continues below Wickiup dam and flows through Bend. This section contains some smaller Rainbows and some nice sized German Browns. It runs through the Deschutes National forest. There is a good drift from the dam down to the Pringle Falls area.
Pringle Falls is dangerous and cannot be drifted. Watch for signs and be prepared to take out above the falls. This is a beautiful drift. The river from Pringle Falls to Bend has several different water falls that cannot be drifted. Check the numerous books available that discuss this section of river in detail.
The section of river that runs through Bend does not produce many fish as it is not stocked with hatchery fish and receives substantial fishing pressure.
The Deschutes flows from Bend into Lake Billy Chinook which is located between Redmond and Madras. Lake Billy Chinook is actually a reservoir that is backed up by Round Butte dam. “Round Butte” reservoir is filled by the Deschutes River, Crooked River and the Metolius River.
Lake Billy Chinook is known for its native Bull Trout population. Bull Trout are close to extinction in many parts of Oregon but not in Lake Billy Chinook. The state record Bull Trout was caught here in 1989. It weighed 23 pounds and 2 ounces. Ten to fifteen pound fish are still common with several being caught every year.
The best time to catch a large Bull Trout is in March and April. The Metolius arm of the reservoir boarders the Warm Springs Indian reservation and is closed from the end of October to March 1st every year. Early in the season the larger trout come into the shallows (10-20 feet) to feed on the abundant Kokanee salmon.
If you find the Kokanee you will find the Bull Trout. A boat is necessary to catch these fish. They are caught by casting the shore line with silver minnow plugs, trolling plugs, fly fishing with a sink tip line or jigging the deeper water if the fish have not moved up into the shallows yet.
If you are interested in pursuing Bull Trout check the authors’ web site for more helpful information, links and pictures.
The trout fishing in this article is all located within a one hour drive from Bend. There are many other lakes, reservoirs and streams within an hour of Bend that are not mentioned in this article.
Bend Oregon is a great place to live if you like the outdoors. There are many good trout fishing spots close by. The lower Deschutes below Bend is world famous for its Salmon Fly hatch but that is the subject of another article.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com . To see more information on Bend Oregon click on the link below. [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com] If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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12:20
Bend Housing Market Hits Rock Bottom in 2012.
» Bend Bubble 2First of all, I'm ready to call The End of The Real Estate Crash:
March 2010.
A few things: First, it will inevitably happen several months later, so The Real End will be Oct 2010. But again, later, so March 2011. A few months after that.
Why?
Well, first of all, besides the fact that I AM ALWAYS EARLY, AND from Case-Schiller data & anecdotal observation, RE seems to move in big waves. Most macro-economic events seem to. It's our reactions that are hyper-magnified.
So here is The Biggie of the week, Case Schiller:
Case Schiller, April 2008
CS comes out on the last Tuesday of the month, with a 2 month lag. CS is considered the least "biased" measure of home price movements, as it uses sale pairs for the same house, with various adjustments & exclusions for excessive rehabbing & such.
So why am I even coming out with a call For The End? Well, it appears that things have maxed out their "stretch" on the downside. Before I explain, here's a graph that shows the YoY gains/losses in Case Schiller from inception:
CS, YoY gains/losses
Now, if you look close, you can see that Jul 2006 was The Top of The US Mega-Housing-Bubble. That was also a little ahead of when YoY returns sunk to 0%.
YoY returns actually maxed out June 2004 - Oct 2004, when they were +20%.
You can see from the top graph THAT was a pretty damn good time to own a home, or RE of any kind probably.
YoY returns finally hit 0% in Dec 2006. Nationwide that was probably past the prime. In Bend, where IQ's & the housing market are 18 months behind the times, that was STILL a pretty decent market. Things had slowed, but you could still actually sell, given sufficient incentives.
So in a shorter term sense, the housing bubble began in the Summer 2002. It hit it's max gain inflection point 2 years later. It was rising at it's fastest rate at that time. It finally peaked 2 years after that, in July 2006.
Conversely, we are now almost exactly 2 years off the top. We are also approaching a point of max pain, down 16% YoY. But the growth of max pain may be slowing here. That might imply that the downturn is half over. That means a July 2010 bottom for the housing bust.
Again, in Bend OR, Home Of The Worlds Biggest Cock fighting Ring, things move a little slower, and besides we are still one of only 8 markets nationwide deemed to be far overvalued.
We will, of course bust harder & farther than anywhere else, and will not pull out of this thing till Jan 2012. Medians will fall below $200,000.
Actually, it looks like we'll see 2001 prices, nationwide. And it really shouldn't surprise anyone if most places fall back, several markets excepted as they never really participated.
Where is Bend headed? Well, as a commenter over on BendBB is fond of saying, "Home prices will reflect local incomes"... or something. So here is the answer... or at least part of it:
Monday, June 23, 2008
Ratio: Median Home Price to Median Income
by CalculatedRisk
The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies report: "The State of the Nation's Housing 2008" is now online. Unfortunately the table I was really hoping they would update is the House Price to Income ratio by metropolitan statistical areas (MSA).
Here is the excel file from the 2007 report: Metropolitan Area House Price-Income Ratio, 1980-2006 Here is some price-to-income data from the 2007 report (data through 2006). I picked a few random cities and plotted the national average (dashed).
Check out the excel file for your MSA. House Price Income Ratio Click on graph for larger image in new window. Different areas have different price to income ratios. There are several reasons for this (land restrictions, demographics), but on a national basis, the median price to median income ratio rose from around 3.0 to 4.6 by the end of 2006 (and has probably declined sharply since then).
This would suggest that a combination of falling prices and rising incomes would need to adjust this ratio by about 1/3 from peak to trough. For Los Angeles, it is reasonable to expect the price to income ratio to fall to between 4 and 5 (the historical average).
This suggests price at the peak were about twice as high as normal. Imagine buying a home at 10 times income. With 10% down, and a 6.0% 30 year mortgage, the P&I payments alone (pre-tax) would be about 54% of the homebuyers gross income. Add in taxes, insurance, maintenance and this homeowner is "house poor" from the get go.
And that brings us to table A-7 in the current report. This table shows that 8.8 million owner occupied households dedicate more than 50% of their income to housing in 2006. Another 13.3 million owner occupied households dedicate 30% to 50% of their income to housing.
Of those 8.8 million owner occupied households with housing a severe burden, approximately 3.3 million are in the middle 50% of household incomes - and this is the fastest growing segment - the middle class with housing a severe burden.
So "3.0 X median family income" was a long held historical standard, and it seems reasonable we'll return to that when all is said & done.
But that "said & done" part is a stickler. See, banks have a funny way of cyclically going bust. It's actually in their nature to go broke. Banks, from a historical perspective appear to be a pretty damn good investment, but actually there is a strong survivorship bias; ie a lot of banks from previous busts actually no longer exist. So current bank indexes (that passes the spell test Timmy, "indicies" doesn't so... ) exclude a lot of 100% losses.
So, as is starting to happen now, banks are actually exacerbating their own demise with STARTLING RAPIDITY. Yup, they are actually doing everything in their power to make things better, but they are making things worse. Far worse:
Credit scores hit by card limits
By Rachel Beck, AP Business Writer
Credit-card lenders lower borrowing levels, which hurts consumers' credit scores NEW YORK (AP) -- Just as Americans grow more reliant on credit cards to help pay monthly bills, they're being hit with a one-two punch: Card companies are reducing borrowing limits for tens of thousands of consumers, which then can lead to lower credit scores.Those facing this predicament might not even know it until they apply for a loan or another credit card, and then get denied because their credit score has dropped.
This is an unintended consequence of the financial world's widespread ratcheting down of risk. Banks and other card lenders are trying to better protect themselves from more massive losses like those they've seen from subprime mortgages.
As a result, they are looking for ways to reduce their exposure to cardholders more likely to default. That's why they are lowering credit limits, which means they are reducing the maximum amount of credit extended to an individual, along with boosting card interest rates and allowing fewer balance transfers.
"This is what they have to do at this time," said John Hall, a spokesman for the American Bankers Association, a Washington-based trade group.
Such moves come as consumers are increasingly using their credit cards as a source of liquidity, especially since it's becoming harder to tap their home equity as much to pay for everything from renovations to vacations to trips to the mall. As the housing and mortgage markets have collapsed, lenders have also reduced the limits on what are known as home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs.
Net home equity extraction fell nearly 60 percent from a year earlier to $205 billion in the first quarter, according to Merrill Lynch. The investment bank also notes that some $1.2 trillion in equity and housing wealth was wiped out in the first quarter alone because of plunging home values.
At the same time, revolving credit usage -- which includes credit cards -- accelerated sharply to a year-over-year growth rate of about 8 percent in recent months. That's the fastest rate in seven years and well ahead of the 2 to 3 percent rate of growth from 2004 through 2006 when home equity lines of credit were a bigger source of cash for consumers, according to Merrill.
But as credit cards are used more frequently, that often results in bigger balances left on the cards. What's worrisome is that consumers who are faced with a number of ugly economic scenarios hitting at once -- falling home prices, surging commodities costs and a weak job outlook -- won't be able to pay their bills.
American Express warned Wednesday that more of its customers were falling behind on their payments. That led some Wall Street analysts to forecast that the card company may soon lower its predicted earnings growth for 2008.
"Business conditions continue to weaken in the U.S. and so far this month we have seen credit indicators deteriorate beyond our expectations," American Express' CEO Kenneth Chenault said in a statement.
That's why card companies including Washington Mutual, HSBC and Wells Fargo are lowering their credit limits, according to data from the consulting firm Institutional Risk Analytics.
Consumer advocates aren't saying that is bad news -- in fact, they believe it helps prevent cardholders from overextending themselves and is preferred to having a sudden surge in card interest rates.
"In the purest sense, it is the better way to manage the risk of a cardholder," said Linda Sherry, director of national priorities for Consumer Action, a national non-profit consumer rights and education group. "But a low credit limit can also unknowingly hurt a credit score."
Here's how that happens: Let's say a cardholder has a credit limit of $10,000 and a balance on the card of $4,000. The card company worries that large balance may increase the prospects for default, so it lowers the credit line to $5,000.
But in doing that, it completely changes what is known as the credit utilization rate, raising it from 40 percent to 80 percent. That is then factored into the calculation of one's so-called FICO credit score, which measures creditworthiness, according to Craig Watts, a spokesman for FICO-creator Fair Isaac Corp.
A lower FICO score could make it more expensive for someone trying to borrow money. For instance, someone taking out a $25,000 36-month auto loan would see an interest rate of about 6.4 percent and a monthly payment of $765 if they were in the highest range of FICO scores of 720 to 850, according to Fair Isaac's Web site myFICO.com.
That then jumps to an interest rate of 7.3 percent and a monthly payment of $776 for those with a score of 690 to 719 and as much as 15 percent or $866 a month for those with the lowest FICO range of 500 to 589.
According to the Comptroller of the Currency, one of the government agencies that regulate U.S. banks, companies must notify cardholders at least 15 days in advance before making changes in the terms of their account, such as lowering the credit limit. But they don't have to explain how that could change an individual's credit score.
That puts the burden on consumers to watch out for this. They better so they don't get blindsided.
See, in this Great Deleveraging, they are pulling in their marks as fast as possible. Well, no one ever thought it'd come to this (having to actually pay this debt back out of their own pocket), so people are defaulting far, FAR faster than ever in history. So they are flooding the market with stuff from the ASSET side of their balance sheet. See, when you owe, you either MAKE THE MONEY, or YOU SELL YOUR S--T to raise the money. That's it. That's all you can do when you cannot borrow more.
And we, The Royal We, cannot borrow anymore. Minsky Moment. Tapped Out. Gotta Sell Our S--t. That's ALL WE CAN DO.
So banks are de-leveraging & will continue to de-leverage. And like they always do, they will go too far, and unnecessarily restrict credit from people who can almost certainly repay their debts. But banks are like jilted stupid broads, they go f--king whacko over the last mega-dump they endured. Cries of "NEVER AGAIN!", and all that frantic bulls--t.
So banks will loan to Bill Gates & Phil Knight, and like 3 other white bitches, and that's it. You and I will not get squat. So the historical mulitplier of "3.0" will have to be scaled back for a time. Probably as long as my last fight with my wife. Like 10 f--king years, or something.
It'll probably hit 2.5X.
Now the other problem.
Bend's median family income is around $60K. But.... of course THAT figure has been built on a long, LONG history of a mini-bubble of sort. We have gone, in 25 years, from one of the most undervalued markets in the US, to the single most overvalued.
THAT takes a lot of excess gains not seen by anywhere else in this country for sure, probably on Earth likely as well. Norma DuBois stated some assinine thing like we'll return to a healthy "7-10%" annual returns, or some whacky-ass crap.
Norma: 7-10% is 1,000,000% UNSUSTAINABLE. We hit the f--king lottery.
And it AIN'T cuz we're special. No. As Taleb would tell you, given a sufficient starting population, there will almost certainly be a money that flips a heads 20X in a row. Literally a statistical certainty. We are THAT monkey.
But you will hear local deluded dumbf--ks proclaim to High Motherf--kin Heaven that we are EXCEPTIONAL. No. We are not. Listen to this:
Bend Housing Market Second Highest in U.S.
The housing valuation analysis, released by Massachusetts-based Global Insight, says the average home price in Bend runs about $290,500, which is overvalued by 49.5 percent, a slight decrease from first quarter 2007 when median home prices reached $319,900 and were overvalued by 65.7 percent, the study says.In other words, the study claims a house in Awbrey Butte appraised at $500,000 is really worth only $250,000.
A local news story that came out a few months ago highlighting a similar report used a similar index, but the problem with those studies is that the index used is inappropriate, Robie said.
At least one local real estate observer says that is ridiculous.
Bill Robie, director of government affairs for the Central Oregon Association of Realtors, said the results of the study, and others like it that are released from time to time, are misleading because the methodology leaves out huge chunks of information that need to be considered when determining market prices – land permit fees, system development charges, the time it takes to build and the price of the land where the house will be built, to name a few.
“These kinds of statistics have come out before and they do not take into consideration the many local factors that contribute to Bend’s housing market prices,” Robie said.“I don’t know the elements, or how they were put together, but I can’t imagine they apply directly to Central Oregon,” he said.
WHEW! What a f--king moron!
Awesome. This Bill Robie guy is clearly a genius, naming several tenants of housing market values, such as SDC charges, land permit fees, and time to build. He left out donkey porno meth shack density, an anal capacity of local City Councilors to take a watermelon up the butt.
"Yes sir, I see you are asking $350,000 for the house. All well and good, but can you tell me about the local SDC charges, land permit fees, and whether my cock will fit in the mouth of COBA's chairman? All these things determine the market value of this home, in case you didn't know."
What a f--kin idiot. Of course you can immediately see the true motivations behind Cascade Business Cali-Bangers in quotes like this: They do not give 2 F--KS about current residents selling their homes, or buyer looking to purchase an existing home. All they care about is BUILDERS SELLING NEW HOMES.
Land use permits? Did you give 2 f--ks about that when you bought your last STD crapper?
Land costs? SDC charges? All that s--t is BUILDER COSTS. That's ALL LOCAL MEDIA GIVES A F--K ABOUT. Sucking Mike Hollern's mega-cock.
“I don’t know the elements, or how they were put together, but I can’t imagine they apply directly to Central Oregon,” he said.
Seriously. Read that. That was a quote from "Bill Robie, director of government affairs for the Central Oregon Association of Realtors".
"What? Where? Who? Whoa. OK, I don't who, what, where, when, what, why, how, who, when, where, how, who, why, what or what the f--k is going on, I just know that it applies to 99.6734% of the rest of this f--king country, just not where I live.
Why? WHY?
OK, I don't who, what, where, when, what, why, how, who, when, where, how, who, why..."
OK folks, we live in a place where THIS MOTHERF--KER is the Director of Governmental Affairs for the local Association of Realtors. Unbelievable. And The Incredible Hulce sought out this walking schizoid embolism for a front page interview, because of his MOTHERF--KING EXPERTISE IN REAL ESTATE. F--k me dead.
OK, where was I... before I was torn off topic by Pamela The Incredible Hulce Andrews, who can leap over the truth in a single bound? Is that a mixed metaphor Dunc?
OK, needless to say we are in a state of dire f--kin straights. Yeah, I said "straights". I want my MTV, motherf--ker.
We have had quite a few years of Sons Of the Soil (Burns Hillbillies) making $60K/yr. Why? We have been in the midst of a 25 year mega-mini bubble, that hopped onboard a national bubble in it's final death throes, and that pushed us up to 6.5X median family incomes locally, or almost $400K at one time.
OK, to reiterate, we ain't special. We are, many of us, like Bill "I put the MENTAL in governMENTAL director" Robie, 100% deluded into thinking what has happened in that period is the result of this places divine munificence. It ain't. Munkee flippin. It HAD to happen somewhere, it just happened to happen here.
National mutiples are going to 2.5 - 3.0X median family incomes. And we shall also go there. But... we will suffer from a horrendous shrinkage, not from Costanza shriveling cold water, but from a mass exodus of our population, which will happen because INCOMES ARE SHRINKING RIGHT NOW, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK.
They will go to $50,000. Maybe less. And we will go to 2.5X medians.
When we bottom out in 2012, medians may go to $125-150,000.
Yup. We got another 50% from here to fall.
But even then, DO NOT buy Bend RE as some sort of "investment". It will, as it has always historically been, terrible. It will NOT outpace inflation. You will pay a higher interest rate than your home will rise in value.
The NOMINAL LOW will be in 2012. The real low will probably be 8-10 years after that. We will drag along the bottom, increasing at a rate well below the inflation rate. Your house MIGHT go up in dollars, BUT your purchasing power will be bled off as you pay interest that swamps any appreciation. Plus, you could have done better in stocks.
By 2020, we'll probably be close to breaching $200K again.
But we WILL endure the worst economic times this area has EVER SEEN. EVER. Timber Bust will look like a tea party. We'll actually be a smaller town, with everyone making LESS MONEY. It'll be a TECHNICAL DEPRESSION.
We will be in a full-fledged DEPRESSION.
You DO NOT want to buy a home here, unless you are fully cognizant that you will lose at least half your money, and have your purchasing power decimated as well. Bend is headed for The Greatest Bust Any US Town Has Seen Since The Great Depression.
If you believe these deluded whackos who are assuring you that All Is Well, then you deserve what you get. Bend is 100% DOOMED. It is worse than you ever thought possible.
Why It’s Worse Than You ThinkFor months, economic Pollyannas have looked beyond the dismal headlines and promised a quick recovery in the second half. They're dead wrong.
Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK Updated: 3:25 PM ET Jun 7, 2008The forgettable first half of 2008 is stumbling to a close. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that American employers axed 49,000 jobs in May, the fifth straight month of job losses—an event that signals a recession sure as the glittery ball dropping on Times Square augurs a New Year. The report, which inspired a 394-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Friday, was the latest in a run of bad news. Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent.
Yet hope springs eternal that the second half will be better than the first. Economists polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May believe the economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, tells NEWSWEEK that "home sales and prices in most of the country will improve during the second half of 2008." (Yun is the Little Orphan Annie of forecasters. He's always sure the sun will come out tomorrow.) Last month, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said, "We expect to see a faster pace of economic growth before the end of the year."
The cause for optimism: the U.S. has called in the economic cavalry, which has responded in textbook fashion. The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates, bringing the Federal Funds rate down from 5.25 percent last September to 2 percent. Earlier this spring, Congress and President Bush, in a rare moment of bipartisan accord, passed a stimulus package, which will shove nearly $100 billion into the pockets of American consumers by mid-July.
But this downturn is likely to last longer than the eight-month-long recession of 2001. While the U.S. financial system processes popped stock bubbles quickly, it has always taken longer to hack through the overhang of bad debt. The head winds that drove the economy into this dead calm— a housing and credit crisis, and rising energy and food prices—have strengthened rather than let up in recent months. To aggravate matters, the twin crises that dominate the financial news—a credit crunch and the global commodity boom—are blunting the stimulus efforts. As a result, the consumer-driven economy may not bounce back as rapidly as it did in the fraught months after 9/11.
As it seeks to regain its footing in the second half, the U.S. economy faces two significant obstacles, neither of which was evident in 2001. The first is entirely homegrown: the self-inflicted wounds of the promiscuous extension and abuse of credit in the housing and financial sectors. The second is a global phenomenon that has comparatively little to do with American behavior: rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel. These trends have conspired to inflict genuine economic pain and deflate consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in May slumped to a 16-year low.
While the treatment of the current malaise has been essentially identical to the reaction to the 2001 slump—aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and tax rebates—the symptoms are quite different. In 2001, an implosion in the technology sector and a slump in business investment pushed the economy over the edge. Even though some 3 million jobs were shed between 2001 and 2003, consumers soldiered on through the downturn. "We had a massive reduction in both long- and short-term interest rates, which set off the housing and consumption boom," says Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC. (Remember zero-percent car loans?) This time, it's the opposite. While businesses—especially those that export—are holding up, the economy is being dragged down by the cement shoes of a freaked-out consumer and a punk housing market.
The difficulties today start—as they began last year—with housing and housing-related credit. Last Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association quarterly report showed that the percentage of mortgage borrowers behind on their payments—6.35 percent—was the highest since the MBA began tracking the number in 1979. It's not just subprime. In the first quarter of 2008, 36 percent of all foreclosures initiated were on prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, says the decline in home prices has slashed $2.5 trillion from household wealth, or about $25,000 per homeowner. The fall has also removed an important source of support for consumer spending, as Americans who grew accustomed to borrowing against rising home equity to finance car purchases or vacations now find themselves bereft. Banks are extricating themselves from the home-equity-line-of-credit business in the same way college students get themselves out of relationships gone bad: abruptly. Judi Froning, a second-grade teacher in San Diego, was surprised last week when she received a letter from Chase informing her that it was terminating her untapped HELOC. "In the light of declining home values, they said they are stopping, effective May 31, any draw on my line of credit," she says.
Despite repeated claims that the damage has been contained, the banks that recklessly financed the housing boom—and then traded mortgage debt even more recklessly—are still cleaning up the mess. But it turns out (surprise!) the same sort of clouded judgment led banks to excesses in commercial lending, and in loans to private-equity firms. The battered financial system, which has raised tens of billions of dollars on onerous terms from new investors to shore up balance sheets, is still likely to suffer more pain from the popped credit bubble, said Bruce Wasserstein, the CEO of the investment bank Lazard, speaking at a New York breakfast. "The harm will radiate for another year." The latest victim: Wachovia CEO G. Thompson Kennedy, cashiered after the North Carolina-based bank suffered a string of losses. Next up: write-offs for bad credit-card and commercial realestate debt. After a serene period between 2004 and '07 in which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. went without a single bank failure, four have gone under so far this year. FDIC chairperson Sheila Bair warned of the "possibility that future failures could include institutions of greater size than we have seen in the recent past." In preparation, the agency has brought staffers out of retirement.
The financial system is supposed to be a tube, transmitting lower interest rates. Banks borrow from the Fed, and pass through lower costs to customers and to the markets at large. But today banks are acting more like dried sponges, absorbing the liquidity the Fed is providing to shore up their balance sheets and make up for losses, rather than releasing the cash into the economy. The Federal Reserve reports that in April, 55 percent of commercial banks said they are tightening lending standards on commercial loans, up from 30 percent in January. Judy Eisenbrand, a Moorpark, Calif., real-estate agent, notes that buyers also can't get loans as easily today, even in strong markets. "The standards are so much stricter than they were during the boom days," she says.
The upshot: the Fed's adrenaline isn't really circulating through the commercial bloodstream. According to mortgage-data firm HSH, rates on conforming 30-year mortgages (under $417,000) have only fallen marginally since the Fed began cutting rates, from 6.4 percent on Sept. 21 to 6.17 on May 30, while jumbo loan rates haven't budged at all. Worse, this may be as good as it gets. Last Tuesday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed may be done cutting rates. Why? "Inflation has remained high," Bernanke said, "largely reflecting continuing sharp increases in the prices of globally traded commodities."
Economists say it generally takes nine to 12 months for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to work their way into the system. By contrast, sending checks to consumers tends to produce quick results. Some retailers have reported a surge of business spurred by the tax rebates. But consumers are shopping for necessities, not discretionary items. Sales at Wal-Mart and Costco were up in May, while sales at Kohl's and Nordstrom were down. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch, argues that higher food and gas prices are eating the rebate. Follow the math. The rebate checks will total about $120 billion. Studies suggest that about 40 percent of that total, or about $48 billion, will be spent in short order; the rest will be saved or spent later. Rosenberg reckons that higher energy costs—crude-oil prices are up 40 percent so far in 2008—are draining about $30 billion out of household cash flow per quarter, and that food inflation, running at a 9 percent annualized rate, drains another $20 billion per quarter. "So instead of the stimulus being filtered into real economic activity, it's being diverted into the checkout counter at Albertson's and the gas station," he says.
Last November, retired school principal Barbara McGeary, 75, of Camp Hill, Pa., switched from a Toyota Rav 4 SUV to a Prius. But the savings she realizes are eaten by a higher food bill. "When I go to the grocery store, I see prices have doubled on some of the things I'm purchasing," she says. Last year she paid $3.99 for a container of about two dozen brownies. Now that they're retailing for $8.49, she bakes her own. McGeary and her husband are also eating at home more than ever. "Restaurants, of course, have had to increase their prices," she says.
While the housing and credit crisis is homegrown, the higher prices for high-octane gasoline and corn chips are effectively imports. Historically, or at least since the end of World War II, if the U.S. sneezed, the world caught a cold. When we used more gas, oil prices rose, and when we used less gas, oil prices fell. As GM vice chairman Bob Lutz points out, "Usually petroleum prices were the first to react to a severe U.S. slowdown." In the past it would have been unthinkable for oil to spike if Americans were cutting back.
Many factors, from a weak dollar to rising speculation, are behind the higher commodity prices. But at root, $4-per-gallon gasoline and $20-per-pound steaks are largely a function of the changing economic geography, and the diminished stature of the U.S. Last January, the talk of the World Economic Forum in Davos (aside from the locale of the Google party) was the prospect of "decoupling"—the notion that India and China could maintain their breakneck economic growth rates even if the U.S. pooped out. Five months later, the global economy seems to have decoupled faster than Jessica Simpson and John Mayer. The world is growing without us. "My impression is that China and India both have sufficient domestic demand-led growth to continue to have vibrant growth even if the U.S. has a sustained period of difficulty," former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin tells NEWSWEEK. Producers of commodities are enjoying the fruits of higher prices. Sorry, Tom Friedman, the world is no longer flat. "It is upside down," says Mohamed El-Erian, co-CEO of bond mutual-fund giant PIMCO. "The growing robustness of the emerging economies enables them to step up to the global plate at a time when the U.S. has to take a breather in order to put its financial house in order." This rampant global economic growth—more people eating better, more people driving, more people using electricity—is translating into higher prices at the Stop & Shop.
The situation we're in is nowhere near stagflation—the consumer price index is rising at a 3 percent annual rate, compared with 13 percent in 1979. But it's still a shock to the system. Fuel surcharges have become de rigueur from exterminators to personal trainers. On May 28, Dow Chemical announced it would increase prices 20 percent to compensate for higher energy prices. The realization that the U.S. no longer controls its economic destiny is contributing to the widespread feeling of unease and crisis of confidence. Economically speaking, the 1990s belonged to the U.S. and New York and Silicon Valley. But as this decade motors toward its close, it seems powered by China, and Russia, and Dubai and Mumbai. It's as though we're home watching reruns while everybody else is out partying. Worse, some of those benefiting the most from the new tilt on the Risk board are hostile to the U.S., like Hugo Chávez of Venezuela. In a recent study, Mary Egan, a partner at the Boston Consulting Group, found that 71 percent of those polled agreed with the following statement: "Because the world has changed so much, the U.S. economy will not be as strong as it was—or at least not for the next several years."
Such surveys measure sentiment, and any analyst worth his weight in PowerPoint presentations will tell you that sentiment doesn't always translate into cash activity in the marketplace. But there's one marketplace where sentiment—and especially consumer confidence—matters greatly: politics. The last time consumer confidence was this low was in October 1992—the month before incumbent George H.W. Bush won 37 percent of the popular vote, the worst performance of any incumbent in history. "The economy is always the biggest issue in a general presidential election," says Tom Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, because it's a referendum on the party in power. A recent CBS News poll showed more people identified the economy as their leading concern (34 percent) than identified oil prices (16 percent) and Iraq (15 percent) combined.
Yale economist Ray Fair has developed a formula in which particular economic factors can foreshadow election outcomes. Crude summary: when there's lots of good news on growth and inflation in a presidential term, it favors the incumbent party. With growth low and inflation high, John McCain comes out with 44 percent in November. (Before Obama-ites go making reservations for the Inaugural, consider that the formula misfired in 1992.)
All things being equal, the limping economy should favor Obama. While McCain has taken pains to distance himself from the Bush administration, he has heartily embraced the most significant component of Bush's economic legacy: the tax cuts. But in presidential elections, all things are never equal. Obama and McCain have staked out different economic turf. For Obama, it's middle-class tax cuts, and creating new jobs in environmental and tech fields; for McCain it is repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax, expanding free trade (a winner in an age of rising exports) and a summer gas holiday. But if the economy worsens significantly, if oil spikes to $150 per barrel and unemployment becomes more widespread, the campaign will likely take on a different tenor. The typical dialogues about taxes and spending, health care and pensions will assume a greater prominence. But a crisis atmosphere would require both candidates to come up with big-picture narratives about America's role in the world economy, and how the nation can re- assume financial leadership—something neither has yet done comprehensively.
It's not all doom and gloom. Businesses that thrive on a weak dollar are holding up nicely. "In fact many sectors are benefiting from strong growth overseas, including high-tech, capital goods, chemical and other raw materials, aircraft," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. Bob Toney, president of Ft. Lau- derdale, Fla.-based National Liquidators, which auctions repossessed boats and yachts, has doubled his staff to 78 employees to pick up around 120 boats a month. "Two years ago, we had 200 cases in our inventory and now we have 610," he says.
But it's the mainstream indicators—not countercyclical businesses—that will point to a recovery. For signs that tomorrow really is a day away, look to the thing that got us into this mess: housing. "Housing doesn't have to return to the bubble era. It's just that the rate of decline has to stop," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Reductions in the level of housing inventories for sale will be a hopeful sign. Other tea leaves are the weekly reports on jobless claims, retail chain stores, and mortgage application activity. "This will give you an early read on potential trend shifts in consumption," says Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC.
Just as sharp spikes in the price of oil and commodities have dented confidence, precipitous falls in the commodity markets could bolster consumer confidence. But that doesn't seem likely any time soon: on Friday, the price of a barrel of oil rose $10.75 to a record $138.54.
marge even gave me a link to the CS futures, and it ain't good:
Maybe you can't see it, but CS is predicting a peak-to-trough decline from $910K to $543K in San Fran medians. You can't yank $366K from each homeowner in a city of millions & think it'll all be OK. It won't.
And this scenario will play out MILLIONS of times in almost every city & town in this country. MILLIONS of people LOSING THEIR HOMES & everything they've ever worked for. All gone. It is 100% ARMAGEDDON. It's coming, it is inevitable.
And Bend Oregon is Ground Zero.
But there is a silver lining. It'll all be over by 2020.
Finally, chew on this. This is a broad banking index, 5 year chart:
Bank Stock index, 5 yr
Banks are in one of their "1,000 Year Markets", which just happens to occur about once every 10 years. Remember, the "1,000 Year Floods" of 1993? Yeah, we're dumbf--ks.
Anyway, WHEN this thing is going to get bad, and many players will be gone at the end. But, as usual, the survivors will be one hell of a play. They will have to survive, of course, but those that do will do great.
Look for thick, THICK equity cushions. The ones that have done the most stringent cleansing of their balance sheet will be worth a look. I had a BUY screen open for CACB for a short time this week. Again, a PERFECT signal that a quick -10% is coming. I didn't buy, so it may well be -30% now.
These little regionals will be worth a look in a bit. CACB is already well below book value, and falling fast.
As a short aside, you will soon begin why banks go broke so fast. It is because, Young Grasshopper, they are Leveraged Beasts. And they are ALWAYS leveraged the most at exactly the WRONG TIME. Always. Except for Goldman. You leverage at the BOTTOM, and de-lever at the top. Or close. Banks ALWAYS do the opposite. ALWAYS.
They are at 20:1, and when that 20 drops to 19... welp, that's All She Wrote. Banks typically need to have assets impaired 5% and they are dead. This happens all the time. It will happen at a rate & scale in the coming years never witnessed since the Great Depression, in case you are curious.
There will be signals WHEN to buy these beaten down beasts. One might be a turn in the homebuilders:
Home builders, 5 yr.
You can see from the above bank & home builder charts, that housing topped out a full year & a half before the banks. And the builders appear to at least be trying to find a bottom. We're probably not there.
But the timing is interesting. If builders, hellish borrowers of money, can actually turn a corner, it might make sense that the lenders are also ready to turn. Look for builders to turn up markedly for a sustained time, and banks to sink ever lower & you might be able to pull the trigger on some decent bank stock buys.
Hell, even CACB may be worth a look someday. If they don't go broke.
One last thing:
I have been writing this blog, week in and week out since the end of 2006, or so. Whenever BEM quit. Maybe Jan 2007. Anyway, it's been a while.
And I have not wavered on my thinking that This Will Be Worse Than You Ever Thught Possible, and Bend Will Be Ground Zero. Never.
When I got started, things were still pretty fluid, people thought, "Hey, a quick dip & up, up and away", and I have resolutely said "No." to that.
And I've heard the old Contrarion Saw that "I will buy when everyone else is bearish", and I am starting to doubt THAT.
This isn't the stock market. The stock market has a precision to it, that homes & housing markets don't have. You can call a stock market bottom, TO THE SECOND. Not housing.
This thing is like turning the Titanic: It started turning 2 years ago, and we're only about 1/2 way through the turn. Everyone KNOWS this f--ker is going lower. Look at that Case Schiller chart: You think that f--kin thing is going to STOP FALLING next month, and advance 4%/yr forever after?
Hell no. It's going to go lower for quite awhile. And EVERYONE knows it. Well, except for Bill Robie & every Realtor in town. Do not use traditional metrics of "bearishness" to gauge a bottom in this thing.
There won't be a statement from COBA about how great Bend homes are as an investment at the bottom. Why? COBA will have disbanded. COAR? Nope. Cascade Business Buttplugs? Same thing. Downtown will be 40% vacant. Cali-bangers will have retreated to Des Moines, cuz they have an uncle there who didn't lose 100% of his 401K in an adolescent pipe dream.
You will know The Bottom, because it will be accompanied by DEAFENING SILENCE.
There will be no one left to congratulate you on your great buy.
I have been saying THE SAME THING for over a year & a half, and local REAL ESTATE EXPERTS, AND BEND'S LOCAL MEDIA HAVE BEEN FEEDING YOU LIES.
Best Buyers Market in 20 Years? Remember that one?
I simply ask, Who Has Been Right? No. That ain't it. It's this:
WHO HAS BEEN 100% WRONG?
Right. It's been local experts. The local RE Industrial Machine. Local Bend Media. They don't give a f--k if you breath or suck goo. They have been persistently & consistently 100% DEAD WRONG.
And they are trying harder than ever to get you to listen to them & do what they want. How have they done so far?
A year and a half. Look at that bank chart. When did the s--t hit the fan? This blog, and it's many commenters have persistently said It Is Bad And It's Going To Get Worse.
Bend RE said the Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow.
THINK FOR YOURSELF.
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Bend Oregon Real Estate - Prices are still falling
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
The Bend Oregon Real Estate market continues to stumble. The Bratton Report which is produced by Mike Caba - Bratton Appraisal Group shows that the median price of homes sold in Bend Oregon for the month of May 2008 were down approximately 23% from May 2007. The median price in May 2007 was $396,000. May 2008 median price was $303,000.
The report did show that the peak median price of homes sold in Bend during the Bull real estate market was in May 2007 so it is a tough comparison. It seems that the median price lags behind the reality of the market in Bend. The median price in November 2006 was $305,000 so we are back to 2006 prices.
The number of homes in Bend sold during the same periods was down approximately 36%! There were only 102 homes closed in May this year as compared to 159 last year.
It looks like prices will continue to fall for the rest of this year as I am seeing limited buyer activity and more short sales and bank repos coming on the market. This year looks like a good time to buy. Unless our national economy goes in the toilet I look for prices to bottom out next spring.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com . To see more information on Bend Oregon click on the link below. [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com] If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Move to Bend Oregon for the Bass Fishing
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Bend Oregon is better known for its trout fishing but it also supports a few lakes that have good populations of Largemouth and Smallmouth Bass. The bodies of water within a one hour drive from Bend that hold bass are Crane Prairie Reservoir, Wickiup Reservoir, Davis Lake, Prineville Reservoir, Haystack Reservoir and Lake Billy Chinook (Round Butte Reservoir).
Crane Prairie Reservoir is better known for its large Rainbow and Brook Trout. However it is full of stumps, standing and downed trees. It is a Largemouth Bass heaven. It is a relatively shallow body of water with reeds and lily pads as well as lots of wood cover.
The deepest part near the dam is 16 to 20 feet deep depending on how much water is in the reservoir at any given time.The reservoir sits in the Cascade Mountains southwest of Bend. It is surrounded by pine trees and supports a healthy wild life population. You can always count on seeing countless Ospreys, a few Bald Eagles and numerous water fowl. Osprey and Great Blue Herons both nest at Crane Prairie.
Crane Prairie is not a year round lake and it often freezes over in the winter. Since it is a trout lake the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife closes it to fishing at the end of October and opens it back up on the third Saturday in April. There are years where it is partially ice covered on opening day.
The belief is that Largemouth Bass no not bite until June or July,” when the water warms.” However, some of the best bass fishing on Crane is in May. The author has caught many bass over five pounds in late April and May. The place to fish is the shallow North side of the reservoir where the water temperatures can be in the low to mid fifties in 2 to 6 feet of water.
Early mornings in April and May are not the time to fish for bass. Early afternoon is the best time to start. The water in Crane is crystal clear this time of year and it is hard to get a bite if the sun is out and the wind is calm. The silt and mud bottom with plentiful amounts of wood cover soak up the heat on these cool spring days.
If it is calm and sunny you are better off to put your rod down, your trolling motor on high and start looking for fish. Often times they will be laying on top of fallen logs sunning. There are also many root balls from blown over trees that will hold fish. You will not see any small fish this time of year. It will be strictly pre-spawn females.
Once you start seeing fish slow down and start looking more closely. You will find several fish in the same area and do not want to spook them too much. Once you have found a few areas that hold fish be sure and mark them so you can come back when the wind picks up and puts a little chop on the water.
It is not necessary to mark every fish. Just keep track of the general area where you saw concentrations of fish. Go back to those areas and fish the lay down logs and the root balls. Black weedless jigs with a trailer or 6 inch black worms are the ticket this time of year. The author’s favorite jig trailer is a 5 inch black with blue flake twin tail grub.
Crane Prairie bass are big for Oregon standards. The largest bass caught by the author was 6.5 pounds. He has seen Largemouth caught and released in excess of 8 pounds in some local bass tournaments. These are not your normal run and gun bass tournaments however because there is a 10 mile an hour speed limit on Crane Prairie Reservoir.
In the early 1990s the average spring time bass was in the 3 to 5 pound range. Now the average is 2 to 4 pounds with a few 5 pounders thrown in. Crane Prairie Largemouth usually spawn around the full moon in late June. Spawn and post spawn is usually when the fish “start to bite” for the general public and anyone can catch several small males that bite aggressively.
After the spawn the large female bass drop back to deeper water around the channels and become harder to catch. Crank baits and spinner baits come into play at this time of year. The water also starts to take on some color and is not as clear. Aquatic weeds and moss also start to grow making it more difficult to fish jigs and worms.
Fall and late fall are difficult time to catch fish as the water is low from irrigation use and it starts to clear up again. Spring is definitely the best time to catch Large Mouth Bass on Crane Prairie Reservoir.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com See more fishing information at [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com]
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Bite of Bend 2008
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBite of Bend 2008I was able to attend the Bite of Bend 2008 for a little bit before the rains came on Saturday and I made it back on Sunday for a few hours. I was impressed with the improvement from this year's layout compared to last year. I was also pleased to see more restaurants dishing out their goods as well as offering a few tasters for only a buck.
There are still some improvements that I'd like to see implemented. While the list of restaurants is increasing, I really would like to see more restaurants and maybe some rules around what they offer. I talked to a couple restaurant owners and apparently for most restaurants, it's not profitable. Why wouldn't Lay it Out Inc (the company that runs the Bite) let restaurants come in for free. The main focus of the Bite should be food from restaurants. Make the catering companies and taco trucks pay extra for entrance into the fair.
All the restaurants should offer tasters for a minimum fee and should not have an item/dish over $5. This way we can afford to get a bite from a variety of restaurants that we normally would not visit or have not had a chance to visit. I tried a bunch of different items from the places that offered $1 tasters. But Taste of Thailand (or Thai on the Fly) was serving up HUGE portions starting at $7. If you got one of those, you wouldn't be tasting anything else for the rest of the day.
Chicken tamale and the chili verde from El Burrito - FANTASTIC!
I recommended to my friends that I bumped into that they go give the chili verde a try.
Crab cakes from the Blue Olive and right next to them was a Chef's Association tent (I forget the actual name) and they were dishing out shrimp cocktail for a buck. The crab cakes were soggy due to all the salsa on top which you can see from the one on the right. The wife liked the crab cakes but I didn't care for them. The shrimp in the shrimp cocktail was still frozen making them taste like one of the worst icicles ever.
Lobster chimichanga and the portobello chimichanga from Hola - AMAZING!
If I only had $3.50 to spend, I would spend it on the Lobster and Prawn chimichanga from Hola.
One of the only downtown restaurants to have a booth was Typhoon offering phad thai and chicken satay. For $1 you get one skewer and for $2 you get 3. The chicken satay and peanut sauce were really good but small.
The army of Stilt walkers were out if full force as usual but I sort of missed the poodles like last year.
The Iron Chef Competition still needs improvement but the new MC did a very good job keeping the audience captive even though no one could see anything. I liked that they brought one of the dishes into the crowd so everyone could see what the judges got to taste. Please, will someone hook up a couple of monitors so the audience can see what the chefs are doing? Dave has a pretty good idea of taking the stage down and having bleachers so the audience can view what the chefs are preparing. I still want to see tv screens next year.
And where are the results? Who won? I have heard that the Fireside Red has claimed this years Iron Chef competition but no one has the results posted yet. Congrats to Fireside Red.
I'll partially retract my earlier comments of the upcoming disappointment. While there is room for improvement, this was by far the best Bite of Bend so far.
Early Comments:
The Bite of Bend 2008 is set for Saturday and Sunday June 21st and 22nd in Downtown Bend. There is info about the Iron Chef Competition posted online by AdHoc and HackBend. The Source has published the official EVENT guide to the Bite (though it is only available in this week's insert instead of online) and of course the official Bite of Bend website is available.
What sucks for me is that NO ONE has a list of the actual food that will be present at the Bite of Bend. I mean, isn't that what the Bite is supposed to be about? I would LOVE to see all the restaurants have a booth with samples of their trademark dishes. Might as well let the neighborhood kids set up a lemonade stand and sell homemade cookies. I'm half expecting to see a Girl Scouts booth. Mmmm thin mints!
Last year I expected to see more restaurants but when I arrived, the food was not the top priority. Instead there were mostly caterers and taco trailers. Pretty much the same participants as munch and music/movies. I guess it makes sense to have these people show up as they are already prepared to serve food on the go with their trailers and portable BBQ grills and all. But I would really like to see more restaurants this year.
Just call this the Iron Chef of Bend instead of the Bite and I'll be happy. The Iron Chef competition was a disaster for me as a attendee. I couldn't see anything, didn't get to sample anything, and the MC annoyed the piss out of me. This year it appears that they have swapped out the MC and have actual foodies on the Judges panel.
Look for my review/rant/disappointment next week.
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16:45
Thoughts from the roadshow guys themselves
» Life by NateWhile the roadshow is a lot of laughs, a lot of character personas, and some singing as well it really comes down to this… as Tony says: the point is deadly serious. We think that the church — even Christianity — needs an overhaul. Although we begin and end the show as 1908 revivalists, the bulk [...] -
9:56
Article on Emergent Church in Bend Bulletin
» Life by NateGood stuff here. This came out in yesterday’s paper. For my own statement of why I am willing to call myself emergent, go HERE. Emergent church tour to roll into Bend By Alandra Johnson / The Bulletin Published: June 17. 2008 4:00AM PST Submitted photo Leaders in the emerging Christianity movement, Tony Jones, from left, Mark Scandrette and [...]
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Retire in Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Bend Oregon is one of the best places to retire in the United States. It has everything a retired person could want. The recreational opportunities are abundant; everything from mountain biking, hiking, rafting, golfing, fishing, rock climbing, camping, downhill and cross country skiing, snowmobiling, general sightseeing and much more.
The weather is perfect. Moderate days and cool nights characterize Bends year-round climate. Because of the high altitude and clear air, nighttime temperatures average 30° to 40° below the daytime highs. Evenings are generally cool, even in the summer, requiring sweaters or jackets. Annual temperature extremes show that only one year out of five has a temperature colder than –17° or warmer than 100°. Frost can occur during any summer month.
The average annual precipitation in Bend is less than 12 inches, over half falls between November and February, often as snow. Brief thunderstorms usually provide most of the light summer rain.
The average annual snowfall is 33.8 inches. Snow rarely accumulates to more than a few inches in depth nor lies on the ground for an extended period. Snow depth in Bend exceeds 24 inches in only one winter out of twenty. At Mt. Bachelor, the ski resort 22 miles southwest of Bend, snow normally reaches depths of 160 to 180 inches.
Bend was originally called Farewell Bend and received its name because it was at this place that travelers over the pioneer roads had their last view of the river. Today it is only a few hours drive to the Oregon Coast. Portland is 3 ½ hours away if you are looking for a big city. Redmond International Airport (Roberts Field) is only 16 miles North.
Bend is nearly the geographic center of the state and is also the most populated city in Central Oregon with a population of more then 75,000. To the east you will find high desert vegetation and to the west, Bend is surrounded by U.S. Forest Service land. At an elevation of 3,628 feet, Bend enjoys the predominately dry climate of the Great Basin. Sunny days, low humidity and cool nights provide the most common weather pattern.
Bend has the highest average number of sunny days in the state. Clear days average 158 days per year with an additional 105 days that are mostly sunny. Many of the remaining days provide substantial sunshine. Days that are totally cloudy do not often occur.
Bend is the outdoor recreation capitol of Oregon, with snow-capped peaks dominating the skyline. Bend is one of few places that visitors can literally ski in the morning and golf in the afternoon. Known as “the sunny side of Oregon,” the Cascade Mountains act as a protective buffer, giving Bend only 12 inches of precipitation per year. That compares to 42″ for Portland, 36″ for Seattle and 20″ for San Francisco.St. Charles Medical Center is located in Bend and is the regional referral center for more than 230,000 people in a 32,000-square-mile area of central and eastern Oregon. With more than 240 physicians on its medical staff, representing 40 specialties and sub-specialties, and more than 1,950 caregivers, it provides many services usually found only in larger urban areas. These include open heart and neurosurgery, comprehensive cancer care, inpatient rehabilitation for stroke and major injury, sophisticated imaging technologies and more.
St. Charles is Oregon’s’ only level 2 trauma center east of the Cascade Mountains and has the region’s only Level 3 neonatal intensive care unit. The hospital increased its inpatient bed capacity to 216 in late 2004 to keep pace with Central Oregon’s population growth and is in the midst of expansions in facilities, technology and equipment.
St. Charles and the many other medical facilities in Bend provide state of the art health care for the retired person. Many of the nations top Physicians and Surgeons live in Bend because of the life style found in Central Oregon.
Bend also has golf courses for everyone. Central Oregon’s spectacular high-desert landscape and ideal climate, four-star resorts, public, semi-private and private courses have been rated 23rd in the world as a golf destination by Golf Digest. Choose from more than 25 unique courses, some easygoing to championship layouts like Sunriver’s Crosswater course, designed to challenge even the lowest handicappers.
Bend also has many volunteer opportunities. Habitat for Humanity, The Oregon High Desert Museum, Hospice, and Saint Charles Medical Center are only a few of the many opportunities to give back to the community.
Bend Oregon real estate prices are still moderate compared to some parts of the nation. The median home price is around $350,000. Real estate prices have been rising steadily over the past decade because Bend is such a wonderful place to live and retire. The last couple of years have seen prices falling and now there are some really good buys available.
If you are thinking of moving when you retire give Bend Oregon strong consideration. It is a great place to live.
Jim Johnson has lived in Bend Oregon since 1981. Call 541-389-4511 or see his web site http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com
See more information on Bend at [bendoregonrealestateexpert.com]
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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16:17
June 21, 22: Bite of Bend | Events and Concert Schedule
» Woodhill Homes Blog
*Picture by cheningilles. See her Bite of Bend Flickr set here.This weekend brings the 6th annual Bite of Bend festival. Information from the website:
The Bite exceeded everyone’s expectations last year with an estimated 20,000 attendee’s; we expect that number to grow in 2008 Due to the great attendance, we were able to raise a substantial amount of money for local charities.
Here is the concert and kids schedule:
Saturday
11am-10pm - Event Center Open
11am-9pm - Children’s Area Open -games, activities, live entertainment, inflatable adventures and more….
11am-6pm - LIVE Iron Chef Competition
7pm - Bar Flare Exhibition – Bartending Competition
10pm - After party at Summit Stage and Saloon Downtown
Sunday
11am-7pm - Event Center Open
11am-7pm - Children’s Area Open -games, activities, live entertainment, inflatable adventures and more….
11am-6pm - LIVE Iron Chef Competition
5:30pm - Cooking Demonstration with Bluefish Bistro
MAIN STAGE SCHEDULE
Saturday
11:00-12:00 Bill Keale
12:15-12:45pm Bijou Project
1-2pm Jenna Lindbo
2:15-3:15pm Joe Leonardi
3:30-4:15pm Jenni Peskin
4:30-6:10pm El Dante
6:30-8:10pm David Bowers Coloney
8pm Fyreflyte
8:30-10pm Tony Furtado
Sunday
11:00-12:00 Allan Byer
12:15-1:15 Leif James
1:30-2:30 The Erin Band
2:45-3:15pm Bijou Project
3:30-5pm State of Jefferson
5:30-7pm Roots of Creation
KIDS SCHEDULE
Saturday
11:30-12:30 Dance and Sing With Janellybean
1:00-1:30 Three Sisters Dance Studio
1:45-2:15 Dance and Sing with Jannellybean
2:30-3:00 Janellybean Students
3:30 - 4:00 Magic and Fun with Silly Lilly
4:30 - 5:00 Janellybean Students
5:30-6:00 Dance and Sing with Jannellybean
6:00-6:30 Vibe Dance CenterSunday
11:00-11:30 Vibe Dance Center
11:30-12:30 Dance and Sing with Jannellybean
1:00-1:30 Gotta Dance
1:45-2:15 Dance and Sing with Jannellybean
2:30-3:00 Janellybean Students
3:30 - 4:00 Magic and Fun with Silly Lilly
4:30-5:00 Jannellybean Students
5:30-6:00 Dance and Sing with Jannellybean
IRON CHEF SCHEDULE
Saturday
1st Round 12:00pm
Fireside Red - Jeremy Baumgartner
Pleidies at Five Pine-David Berger2nd Round 1:30pm
Brasada Ranch Blue Olive - John Nelson
Jackalope Grill - Tim Garling3rd Round 3:00pm
Volo- Victor Sommo
Marz Bistro-Jeff Hunt and Rich Hall4th Round 5:00pm
Decoy Bar and Grill - Johnathan Bohn
Chow - David Touvell7:00pm
Bar Flare Exhibition – Bartending CompetitionSunday
1st Round 11:00am
Winner Round 1
Winner Round 22nd Round 12:30pm
Winner Round 3
Winner Round 43rd ROUND 2:00pm
Winner Sunday Round 1
Winner Sunday Round 2FINAL FINALE ROUND 3:30pm
TR McCrystal – Jens Garden – 2007 Champion
Winner Final Round5:30pm
Cooking Demonstration with Bluefish Bistro**More information at the BoB website (www.thebiteofbend.com). **
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Bend Oregon Real Estate Market
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
The real estate market in Bend Oregon continues to slump. It is a buyer’s market.
Prices are coming down and will continue to fall through the summer, fall and winter as the inventory continues to build. It is taking longer for homes to sell and there are more homes for buyers to choose from. The real estate markets in California, Arizona, Florida and other key states are leading indicators on how the market in Bend will do. In 1989 real estate values in Bend jumped 35%. Out of state buyers from California, Florida, Arizona, Washington State and other hot real estate markets were selling their homes for large profits in 1989 and moving to Bend to buy larger homes. 1990 and 1991 saw the out of state markets dry up with prices falling. The Bend real estate market followed these markets before it picked up again. Today’s market looks very similar to the 1989-1991 market but with the inventory up and gas prices also up it looks like the trend will continue down for the rest of this year. There are also many bank repossessions reported from key states. We are still seeing buyers from California. The last three sales I have made have been to California buyers and I have a Florida buyer coming to buy the last weekend of June. The median sales price is down but that does not include homes that have been on the market for almost a year and haven’t sold. There are homes that have been listed with one Realtor for six months and then listed with another. Many of these homes still have not sold. This year could be the time to buy real estate in Bend. There are homes on the market now that have been substantially reduced with seller’s willing to take any reasonable offer. Some homes are vacant and can be bought with a lease-purchase.
We look for the market and prices to pick back up next spring. The Bend Oregon real estate market is seeing more bank foreclosures. Delinquencies continue to climb so there will be more Repos for sale this winter. Some builders are starting to offer more incentives if you buy one of their homes. Upgrades in appliances, floor coverings, wood work, landscaping and other aspects of construction are now free. Some builders are also willing to pay points in order to help buyers qualify for lower payments on their loans. There are still many homes for sale in Bend that are over priced for today’s’ market. But there are also a good variety of homes that are for sale that are very good buys. Sellers that have to sell are forced to lower their prices and offer to pay closing costs, include appliances in the sale and replace carpets prior to close and many other “freebees” in order to sell their homes. New home developers and builders were able to sell homes in the past few years before they broke ground. They had buyers waiting in the wings to purchase these homes as soon as the lots were developed and the builder priced the homes. The buyers chose their finish materials and waited for construction to be finished. Today large builders particularly cannot afford to sit on their vacant and pay interest, taxes, insurance and utilities. These builders are offering “free” perks to sell their new homes today. Prices are being lowered substantially.
There are a few developers that have filed bankruptcy and probably more to follow. I have noticed a few builders selling completed homes that are “short sales”. They owe the bank more than they can sell them for. Interest rates are still low and the real estate market in Bend should be picking up next spring.
If you have ever thought about buying real estate in Bend Oregon now may be the best opportunity you will have in a long time. Prices are falling. Interest rates are low and there are some good buys in today’s market. Look for prices to start going up next spring. Bend Oregon real estate is still a good investment and will continue to appreciate in the long term. Bend is a great place to live.
Here’s a link to a virtual tour of Bend: [www.distinctivehometours.com]
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Tasting Room Advice from The Wall Street Journal
» Volcano Vineyards BlogI have had a few people mention to me piece written by John Brecher and Dottie Gaiter that ran in the WSJ a few weeks ago. It was titled “Tips for Tasting Rooms,” a very thoughtful list of suggestions. I am happy to say that most of them, we heed already: we’re kid-friendly, our wine club pressure is so low we usually forget to mention we have one, we have a simple tasting fee that we refund with purchases. Many of their bits of advice are the exact opposite of the “you shoulds” we daily hear from people in our tasting room.
The most frequent “you should” we get, next to “You should serve food” (and considering how tenny weeny our space is and the fact that there are too many restaurants in Bend already, food ain’t gonna happen), is that as part of the tastings, we should give folks a glass with our logo. John and Dottie say “No glass!” and we totally agree. After we moved our collection of winery commemorative glasses for he fifth time, Scott took them all to Goodwill. Two from this place, one from this other place, different sizes, different quality – just a big pain the rump. We opted to use Riedel crystal glasses in our tasting room. And while yes, they can be etched with our logo, the added expense doesn’t make sense.
The one bit of advice we are guilty of not following was “Ease up on the numbers” – meaning don’t spout off the Wine Spectator/Enthusiast etc scores. While we have yet to submit our wines to any of the “number” publications (and that’s a whole nuther blog in itself), our basic info on the wine includes our awards and our Wine Press Northwest or Northwest Palate reviews. This is information we feel is vital to building our brand – as a relative newcomer to the wine industry, people are skeptical, and having that “third party validation” of our wines absolutely adds to our “legitimacy.” Yes, your palates are not fooling you – our wine is indeed yummy!
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Where did you get those undies?
» Ad HOC : Words + Ideas
(Bend, OR) Unless you're one of those free-spirited sorts who go commando style 24x7x365, you occasionally buy underwear, lingerie and other undergarments (or someone buys them for you). Here's your chance to share what you like and dislike about the experience, while also helping an Oregon-based, boot-strapping start-up get a leg up (and possibly winning a few bucks in 
exchange for a few minutes of your time).
Please take this brief online survey - and pass the word along to friends and family. When it comes to survey statistics anyway, bigger is definitely better.
Thanks,
HOC -
Tumalo Mountain Backcountry Recreation Zone
» Ad HOC : Words + IdeasJust got this (below) from Mike Riley of reSource/ Environmental Center. I don't have anything against snow machines, but I would like to see Tumalo Mountain better protected, and there are already hundreds of miles of trails for snow machines (you can literally ride almost to Klamath Falls on existing trails). Plus, every backcountry user who spends any time at Tumalo has seen snow machines - or at least the tracks - poaching inside the boundary. -hoc
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Greetings friends and fellow snow lovers!
**PLEASE FORWARD THIS MESSAGE TO YOUR BACKCOUNTRY SKI AND SNOWSHOE PALS**
A group of local backcountry skiers and snowshoers is working with the Forest Service to secure a Backcountry Recreation Zone that encompasses all of Tumalo Mountain. If successful, this effort will make all of Tumalo Mountain – including the summit bowl – a non-motorized recreation area.
This discussion has come about in conjunction with the Forest Service’s proposal to build a new snowmobile parking area at Kapka Butte, at the intersection of Century Drive and the road to Sunriver. The Kapka Butte lot would significantly increase the parking capacity for snowmobile users, and result in a marked increase in the number of snowmobiles in the backcountry surrounding the Century Drive corridor.
As recreationists who prefer a quiet, human-powered backcountry experience, our group feels strongly that the Forest Service should compensate for this increase in motorized capacity by designating more area for non-motorized use only. We do not oppose snowmobile use, but feel that segregating motorized and non-motorized areas is the best way to manage conflicts in the backcountry.
This is our best opportunity in years to establish better management on Tumalo Mountain. For this effort to succeed, we need to show the Forest Service that there are a lot of us who think we need more accessible non-motorized winter recreation terrain.
To show your support, please go to [www.winterwildlands.org] and do two things:
1) Sign the online petition; and
2) Add a thoughtful comment to the Forest Service in the comment box.
The site also includes a map of the proposed area, and a statement of rationale recently submitted to the Forest Service.
It is important that we demonstrate support for the Tumalo Mountain Backcountry Recreation Zone NOW. The Forest Service will consider the proposal as part of its deliberations over the Kapka Butte project this Summer. Please take two minutes to add your name to the list, and contribute to this effort to secure a motor-free Tumalo Mountain.
And pass on this email NOW!
Mike
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Bend Oregon Real Estate - Bank Repos
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
Homes continue to sell in Bend even though at a slower pace than a couple of years ago. My partner and son Matt Johnson wrote a full price offer on a bank repo for a client of his and it sold to someone else that wrote an offer over the list price. The property had been listed for just a few days and there were six offers!
There are several bank repos for sale now and many “short sales” on the market. Short sales are listings that are listed below the amount the owner owes the bank. These sales are subject to bank approval and can take several weeks to get an answer from the bank after you write an offer.
We are advising our clients that need to move within 90 days to avoid short sales. The bank repos are good because the bank already owns the property and they want to get rid of it fast.
It looks like there will be more repos coming on the market as there are more delinquencies being reported. If you are interested at looking at bank repos you can search the Bend Oregon Multiple Listing service through our web site. [bendoregonrealestateexpert.centraloregonrealtors.com]
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Decoy - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantDecoy - Bend OregonUpon my first visit to the Decoy Bar and Grill I was not that impressed with the "club" sandwich that I was served. But I wanted to go back and sample something else on the menu. There have been a couple favorable reviews from trusted sources but I have received some mixed responses via email and amongst friends.
Recently, the wife and I made it downtown for some lunch at Decoy. She was excited since it was going to be her first time eating there. After reading through the lunch menu we thought we'd start off with the wings. For $9.95 we received some tasty wings in a mild sweet chili sauce. All 6 of them. 6 drumettes for $10. That's $1.66 a wing. They were pretty good but not anywhere near $10 for 6 wings good.
The wife decided on the Ruben and potato salad. Her sandwich was piled high with corned beef and sauerkraut. The sandwich was big and falling off the plate. She also got a healthy scoop of potato salad that was very good. It was also $10.
How can 6 drumettes sauced with the same sweet chili sauce I have in my fridge cost the same as a Ruben and salad? What am I missing here?
Good ol' Hack Bend has his favorable review of Decoy on his site and based off his recommendation, I decided to try the burger.
Hand pressed patty on two thick slices of sour dough with the traditional fixins and accompanied with fries for $12. The burger was juicy and messy. I was actually quite pleased with it and the fries. The fries were pretty good unlike the first go around.
My photos did not turn out very well so I'll not post them. All in all I enjoyed the meal but found the prices to be off.
Decoy Bar and Grill
1051 Bond Street, Suite 100
Bend, Oregon 97701
(541) 318-4833
[decoybarandgrill.com] -
Jackalope Grill - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantJackalope GrillI love the Jackalope Grill. On my birthday I had some Nancy P's for breakfast, tried the Country Catering Company for lunch, and when it came to my birthday dinner, I decided on the Jackalope Grill. I've already discussed the layout of the Jackalope Grill and its odd location in the strip mall on my first post so I'll hold off on that this time around.
A new email buddy said that they wished the Jackalope Grill would take over the old Robby J's location and I couldn't agree more. That would be a great spot and if anyone could do well there, it would be them.
Of all my "reviews", non have the amount of positive comments that the Jackalope Grill has received. Nothing but glowing comments about this "hidden treasure" as one commentor put it.
Of course we started off with the clams and they were soooooo good. The sand quantity has been fixed or at least it was on this occasion. We soaked up the gravy with our bread again and enjoyed every bite.
The wife went for the Soup du Jour. She asked "What's the Soup du Jour?" and the waitress said "Its the soup of the day." The wife responded with "Mmm, sounds yummy. I'll have that."
I had the field greens salad. I know I know. Yes I do eat vegetables from time to time.
For my entree I decided on the Filet Mignon. The filet could not have been cooked any better. It was absolutely perfect. After a couple Sapphire Martini's I don't think I noticed that the filet was covered in the classic brandy sauce. Normally I want my steak to be seasoned with salt and pepper, then throw a pat of butter on it as it comes off the grill and call it a day. I am now a fan of the brandy and peppercorn sauce. It was very good and I may even get it again.
Awesome dinner! If you have not been to the Jackalope Grill yet, then you're stupid.
Jackalope Grill
1245 SE Third St.
Bend, OR 97702
[www.thejackalopegrill.com]
541-318-8435
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6:07
Bend: No More Bloody Marys, Let The RE Bubble Hangover Commence
» Bend Bubble 2Welp, you know how when you wake up a little "salty" from an especially brutal month-long bender of hard partying, and go straight to the hair of the dog that bit you? But then there even comes a time when that isn't enough to get rid of the pangs of reality that the party is over, and even the hangover treatment is over, and now things are just horrible. Right?
Yes, that time arrived this week.
There seemed to be this mass realization all at once, that Bernanke's Bloody Mary The Morning After, while potent & temporarily alleviating almost unspeakable horrors, has itself run out of steam. Here's a quick view of the hangover's hangover, via a 5 day snapshot of the DJIA:
DJIA - last 5 days
We got whacked for just over 500pts this past week. Probably not seen as a big deal in the context of the almost 1,500pt rise from bottom to top since March. But I think this is the beginning of Yet Another End. You can see the progression of "Ends" here:
DJIA - 2 years
You can see the initial Subprime Surprise way back in February 2007. That was brushed off as a Tsunami False Alarm, and the party went on like nothing happened.
And so it went with all-time stock market highs being made as recently as last Fall, with nary an interruption. Until early this year when Wall Street Wonks figured out that it wasn't just "us" anymore, it was "them" too, when Bear Stearns went belly up.
And you might wonder just where Bend is with respect to the rest of the country.
CACB - 5 years
Yes. Here we are at fresh new 5 year lows on Cascade Bancorp, The Little Bubble Bank That Could.
As bad as things are in the rest of the country, they are orders of magnitude worse in Bend. And they are awful bad everywhere else, now that Bernanke's Bloody Mary has worn off:
Fed lowers growth forecast, raises inflation viewBy Mark Felsenthal and Glenn Somerville Wed May 21, 4:39 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed its 2008 U.S. economic growth forecast and signaled that mounting concerns over inflation would make further interest rate cuts unlikely.
"Several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term," the Fed said in minutes of its April 29-30 monetary policy meeting.
Fed officials said that cutting benchmark interbank lending rates by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent at their last meeting was "a close call," reinforcing the impression that they may be on hold with any further interest rate moves.
"If you had any doubt that the Fed is signaling a pause, that doubt is gone," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
In an accompanying forecast, the Fed cut its projection for growth to a scant 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent in 2008, down from the 1.3 percent to 2 percent it estimated three months ago.
At the same time, the Fed -- the U.S. central bank -- said it expects inflation to remain "elevated" and unemployment to increase "significantly."
Stocks tumbled, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing off 227 points, or nearly 1.8 percent, and Treasury debt prices pared losses on the Fed's forecasts. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures expect no imminent change from the Fed but point to rate increases in the final months of the year.
The rate cut on April 30 was the seventh in a series that has taken the interbank lending rate down by 3.25 percentage points since September as the central bank moved to buffer an economy battered by the housing downturn and a credit crunch.
The economy has expanded at a sluggish 0.6 percent annual rate in both the last three months of 2007 and the first quarter of this year.
At the same time, however, record high oil prices have pushed up energy and food prices, raising the consumer price index by 3.9 percent in the 12 months to April.
Policy-makers felt at their April meeting that the risks that growth could slow were more closely balanced by the risks that inflation could spike higher.
"Members were ... concerned about the upside risks to the inflation outlook, given the continued increases in oil and commodity prices and the fact that some indicators suggested that inflation expectations had risen in recent months," the Fed said.
Participants at the Fed's meeting were roughly evenly divided as to whether the risks to the inflation outlook were balanced or were tilted to the upside, the minutes said.
The Fed boosted its forecasts for inflation to 3.1 to 3.4 percent in 2008 from its January 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent projection for the personal consumption expenditures index. It expects unemployment to rise to 5.5 percent to 5.7 percent for the year. The jobless rate was at 5 percent in March, but employers had cut jobs for the fourth month in a row.
The Fed warned that the risks to its scaled-down growth projection remain to the downside, particularly if house prices continue to slide lower.
"Participants saw little indication of a bottoming out in either housing activity or prices," minutes of the meeting said.
Fed officials took some comfort from signs that fragile credit markets, which were severely shaken by doubts about bad credit, appear to be on the mend.
"The generally better state of financial markets had caused participants to mark down the odds that economic activity could be severely disrupted by a further substantial deterioration in the financial environment," the minutes said.
Yup, that there says it all.
No more rate cuts (ie Morning After Bloody Marys). Higher unemployment. No more credit. Higher inflation. Lower growth.
See, that last one still shows they have a sense of humor. "Growth"? Yeah, right.
Worst Of All Possible Economic Worlds, that's what that is. Everything going straight into the crapper simultaneously. That's what we call STAGFLATION. Everything costs more, but you get fired anyway, and you are ultimately rehired at dreadful Illegal Alien Wages.
And let there be no doubt about the source of all this, it's The Housing Bubble. I know, to many on this board, that's so obvious it's literally retarded to think otherwise. Ahem:
Deschutes home prices see further declines in first quarter (excerpt:)
Despite Deschutes County’s recent declines, home values have grown 74.96 percent over the last five years, the report said.
Linda Williams, a co-owner of Tamarack Homes, one of the four builders developing the 458-lot RiverRim subdivision in southwest Bend, said the softening of home prices in the last few quarters was inevitable, adding that price declines are due to downward pressure from people who have been forced to sell.
Nevertheless, as the traditionally strong summer sales season is about to begin, Williams believes real estate prices will hold steady, perhaps even climb.
“Until we get through the summer season and to the end of October, we’ll have a better picture, but I don’t see there will be further declines in the near future,” Williams said.Yes. It DOES continue. In a story about the DECLINES in Deschutes County home prices, there is, AS ALWAYS, a plug by local RE wonks telling us to buy, and this whole temporary bubble nonsense is over, at least locally.
And there are people who BITE on this crap. They actually go out & look for homes & BUY THEM.
Just a flashback folks: These are the same people who tried to PANIC US INTO BUYING because if we didn't WE WOULD NEVER, EVER OWN A HOME EVER AGAIN.
THAT was actually more plausible than the idea that Bend RE is headed up, up and away from here. It ain't. From the same Bulletin piece:
The last OFHEO report, for the period ended Dec. 31, 2007, said home prices in Deschutes County depreciated 1.44 percent in the final quarter of 2007 compared with the year’s third quarter, and 2.84 percent when compared with the fourth quarter of 2006. That report ranked Deschutes County at 236th in the nation for appreciation — meaning 235 MSAs had better rates of appreciation or lesser rates of depreciation — out of a total of 291 MSAs.Remember the Top Spot? Bend was Numero Uno? Then we were Top 5? Then Top 10?
Then it got awkward, cuz we had to do stuff like, "Bend, We're Still Top Quartile!", and such?
Right. Now we are square in the LOWEST 20% of appreciating MSA's in the U.S.
People DO NOT come a running to invest in the LOWEST 2 DECILES from my own experience. I don't know, maybe we should call the Mayor of Flint, MI and ask how it's going.
So what's the Big Picture Summary?
1) We've got runaway INFLATION. Do not believe the U.S. Government, they do all sorts of stuff to convince you that we're sitting around 3-4%. 2 words:
Got Gas?
Right, we are RIGHT NOW in a state of runaway inflation. That's BAD. But it gets worse.
2) U.S. homeowners, probably the largest amalgamation of wealthy people on Earth, are getting poorer at an rate UNTOLD IN THE ANNALS OF RECORDED HISTORY. Case-Schiller will be out Tuesday, and it will almost certainly show some of the greatest losses we've had so far.
And as an aside: We're starting to take for granted these little 1 and 2% declines, as small or insignificant. But a 1% drop in US home values is a loss on $20 TRILLION. 1% is a measly $200 BILLION. And given the ~70% ownership rate in this country, that's $1,000 loss for each person inhabiting an owned home.
Fannie Mae, and others have predicted total losses of 25%. Maybe more. In Bend the losses will be greater. FAR greater.
3) Unemployment is exploding locally. It's marching steadily higher nationwide, but it's already at Bad Old Days levels in Bend:
Bend Unemployment - Jan -Dec. MAX, AVG, and MIN values, 1990 - Date
Here's a graph of Bend unemployment, as viewed through a "seasonal" filter. That middle line is the overall AVG unemployment for each month throughout the year, and this chart covers every month from Jan 1990 to now.
The purple and yellow lines are the MAX and MIN figures ever recorded for each respective month, in that entire period. ALL unemployment figures since 1990 lie between that MAX & MIN range.
The lowest unemployment ever recorded was in Oct 2006, at a scant 3.8%. That 11.1% high mark was recorded in Feb 1994.
And it's plain to see the high cyclicality of Bends economy. The best months are May -Oct. Things get worse from there, usually bottoming out in Feb. This is why I said "Things will get better", last Feb. They always do.
But take a look at how things are going once you factor OUT the cyclicality. Here is a graph with the AVG subtracted OUT of the figures:
Bend Unemployment, Cyclically smoothed, Aug 2006 - Apr 2008
Yup.
See where we just jumped up above 0? That means, after a run that brought us as low as 3% below normal yearly trend unemployment, we have actually entered the unhappy side of Bends average unemployment.
And that's "STATED" unemployment. As anyone who's been here more than 5 seconds knows, Bend is the home of the Independent Contrator, and our unemployment is ALWAYS better on the Good Side, and much worse on the unhappy side of the unemployment grind.
Note that although nominal unemployment peaked in Feb this year at 8.2%, as it almost always does, and it has since gone down to 6.8% for Apr, that in cyclically smoothed terms (ie subtracting out the AVG unemployment rate for each respective month), things are getting worse by the day.
We're in a near-unbroken uptrend in "real" unemployment around here. And it shows NO INDICATION of slowing down, much less reversing.
So where was I? Runaway inflation, massive loss of wealth, unemployment.... oh right
4) Bernanke has said "no mas" to rate cuts. This means the pick-me-up, day-after Happy Hour is over. This means the Main Street can't look forward (always forward) to ever lower rates, that make the number of craptacular ROI-positive projects expand ever wider. That means this extremely marginal source of growth is done.
It was only ever a figment that this would help, but it was a figment that Wall St seemed to cling to, to the point of myopia.
What this "no mas" statement really seemed to raise the specter of was No More Bear Stearns Bailouts. AKA: The Fed is out of The Game. Heads will roll, banks will fold, nothing is Too Big To Fail. THAT is the sort of thing that gets the stock market down.
5) Finally, it is just Quagmire Time. Nothing moving, nothing happening, economic activity just grinds to a halt. Maybe this is best illustrated through example:
Here you see MLS listing 2802501.
View Ridge STD, 2,156/sf, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, $299,900
It's your standard STD nightmare, thrown together by Triad Homes, over on the Eastsiiiieede.
Then, literally next door, you find a clone (MLS 2801622) for sale, of course:
View Ridge STD, 2,156/sf, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, $389,900
Yup. The Triad Borg Mothership crapped these two STD's out at varying times during the Bubble, and has left at least one of these people in a totally untenable position to sell their house.
I should note that both have been on the market quite awhile. Both are overpriced, it's just a matter of degree.
This is the state of RE all over Bend. Identical homes in every way, differing in price by 30%!
You might think, "Hey! That $299K shack is a Great Deal!". Maybe. But I think it's much more a signal of an Extremely Unhealthy Market. In the macro-view it's just a signal that many home values in Bend are being "made up" by the sellers BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES, and not the "market price", whatever that means.
That is what is truly scary around here. Prices, due to the vacuum of financing, lack of historically dependable comps, and a market that has literally siezed up, are almost impossible to figure out.
What's the "real value" of these 2 homes? They are almost certainly within 1-2% of each other, because they are within about 100ft of each other. It certainly seems that they are NOT worth $389K. And even $299K seems doubtful, as that home has been on the market quite awhile, without a taker. The only place to even come remotely close to a market bid is this airdropped number at $259,000 (MLS 2713223):
View Ridge STD, 1,859sf, 3 bd, 2.5 bath, $259,000
This STD nightmare briefly went pending for Assist-2-Sell, but promptly fell apart, and is now back on the market.
So we have sellers, in vast, VAST numbers simply making up prices in Bend, based on NOTHING but what they paid. Identical homes, wildly different prices; that just means an incredibly inefficient market. That means a High Cost Market.
This is a big problem everywhere in the U.S., but it is a near-crippling problem for Bend. There's no indication of where the bottom is.
Now... I can't help but re-print a recent blog post by Dunc:
Article on KTVZ.com of Bend being the 'new' Boulder, with this comment:
"Isn't that awesome?" Alana Audette, executive director of the Central Oregon Visitors Association, said in reaction to the article. She echoed one theme: "A predominance of new business startups here is largely from people who came here on vacation" and liked what they saw.
Oh, my God. I've told this story before, but it bears repeating. A few years ago, a lady opened a Mystery bookstore in the Brooks Alley, facing Mirror Pond Parking lot. I won't call it Brooks 'Street' because there is no vehicle access. Anyway, it was a very nice store, especially for us mystery readers. She really knew her stuff.
But I thought it doubtful that she could cut the customers down to such a small portion; and I especially doubted her location. Finally, I asked her why she had opened on that spot. "When I used to visit, this alley was absolutely packed. I'd come for the Market."
In other words, she had come on probably the only days in the entire year when Brook's Alley was super busy, and thought that was normal. Unlike the COVA director above, I don't think luring tourists into opening businesses in Bend is "awesome." I think it's a recipe for disaster.
1.) They most likely visited on Peak days and hours.
2.) They most likely moved from a bigger town for the small town feel.
3.) They haven't lived in Bend long enough to really get a handle on it.
There seems to me to be only three ways to understand local business conditions: either you do a heck of a lot of accurate research. Or you live here for awhile. Or you have extensive experience in the field you choose, and can make educated guesses.
The most important thing a business needs to do to survive is to calibrate as closely as possible what the most likely sales levels are going to be, and to carry the proper amount of inventory to get there and to have overhead low enough to be covered by that level of sales. How the hell do you know that? Especially if you are from out of town? Especially if the business is a dream business and you've never done it before?
Lets say you open a restaurant that does an average of 50 tables worth of business a night after 3 years. If you opened with 75 tables for peak hours, and you can still survive with 25 tables business, than you guessed accurately. But if you opened with 100 tables, you overreached. And every business has the same strictures. The problem with doing demographic research for Bend, it that it will probably mislead you.
Bend really is different -- most people have been here for five minutes, for instance, which completely changes the whole marketing dynamic. If, as is likely, you come from a more populated area and you've seen what you perceive as successful businesses and that Bend is lacking such a business -- your conclusion might be that Bend needs such a business. When your conclusion might ought to be -- that Bend doesn't have such a business for good reasons.
That if you actually knew any better, you'd know that several such businesses have already come and gone. And so on.... I've seen many businesses open that had great presentation, great inventory, great service-- and still failed, because there just weren't enough customers. Bend's population is rather dramatically higher during the peak season, when most business opening tourists are visiting.
But that's like visiting a restaurant on a Saturday Holiday night and expecting that to be average. They need to come back in February and November. Take a clicker and stand on the street corner and count how many people walk by, something like that. So by all means, open a business in Bend. But live here for a year or two or three, first.
Yup. Good Old Bend. Market 'em, reel 'em in, net 'em, fleece 'em, and leave 'em for dead.
That's our modus operandi. Fleecing Noobs For The Bend Dream. And have no doubt that the RE bubble here had a strong self-reinforcing effect on parting these Noobers from their cash. Untold numbers of Amenity Businesses have opened, and will close the second their 3 year leases are up, or the owners completely run out of cash, whichever comes first. Do not underestimate the number of people who have gone this route.
Bend: The Biggest Equity Sink Hole In America. There will almost certainly be more money lost per capita in this town, than anywhere, over the next decade.
And in a similar vein, you can start to see the beginnings of the Inevitable Commercial Property Implosion now sweeping this town. Just a short hop between 3rd & Wall on Greenwood, shows an astronomical vacancy rate already shaping up for downtowns Eastside corridors.
I'm sure the piece in todays Bulletin, while sprinkled with the usual false hope, explains this problem at least in part:
Too many commercial buildings, few tenants Tighter market poses problems for landlords, but some businesses see an opportunity(Anyone have a copy/paste of this one for the comments?)
Remember: Commercial in Bend was supposed to be TOTALLY IMMUNE to the residential downturn. Dunc & others called bulls--t on this long ago, and of course, were dead right.
GDP & homeowner wealth are literally joined at the hip. No consumer spending, and business goes to hell. And much of consumers disposable income has come from their homes over the past decade. It is hard to overstate the importance of Mortgage Equity Withdrawals, and their effect on GDP:
Mortgage Equity Withdrawals Effect on GDP
Without home equity lines being drawn down, our last "slowdown" would have been a full fledged 2 year recession. As it was, it was just a little bump in the road.
But now, We Owe. And we owe for YEARS & YEARS of spending. All them Hummers, fake titties, snowmobiles, and all the rest did not come free:
Consumer Debt
We owe just TRILLIONS, and ALL OF IT is either collaterallized by assets FALLING IN VALUE, or by nothing at all (credit cards).
So we are going to suffer. But the Real Losers will be banks, as they always are. And business in general will suffer. It's really an unheralded event taking place. Even George Soros doesn't think we've seen anything like this:
Seeing Signs of ‘Systemic Failure’“This is not a normal crisis,” George Soros, the hedge fund pioneer turned philosopher, said today to a group of reporters he had invited to lunch at the World Economic Forum. “It is the end of an era.”
It was the “era of superleverage,” he said, and regulators have not appreciated how serious it is. “Systemic failure,” he said, may be taking place.
This is exactly what's happening. If I had to put this in "movie-terms", I would equate it to "Escape From New York". We are entering some sort of post-apocalyptic nightmare scenario. If this doesn't put to bed Dunc's idea that I'm "not negative enough", I don't know what will!
Remember: Each 1% decline in home prices equates to a loss of about $200 billion. They've estimated that banks & other financial intermediaries are expected to face worst-case scenario losses of a trillion dollars.
We've already LOST THAT, and more. Bernanke has groggied us up with unlimited Bloody Marys, and has blurred our vision for just a few more months. But the losses have done NOTHING BUT INCREASE DURING THIS MORNING HAPPY HOUR. The problem is NOT over, and in fact, it has gotten worse with our Speak No Evil, See No Evil, Hear No Evil Fed policy.
Have no doubts through the Realtor-based rosey-palm, Buy Now bulls--t, the DJIA respites, and all the other blather, that we are entering a state of financial Armageddon, and absolutely NOTHING can stop it.
And Bend will go down harder than ANYWHERE on this Planet.
OK, to end this thing on a lighter note, this piece from Slate was a great commentary of home buyers remorse. If you've EVER owned a home, you KNOW that it is fraught with problems, and this author does a pretty good job explaining how bad things can go:
Flip this house. Please! After two decades of renting, I finally bought my own home. What the hell was I thinking?By Steve Almond
May. 23, 2008 | Thanks to the mortgage crisis and the inevitable mortgage crisis legislation, we have heard a lot of bloviating recently about what Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich., calls "the American Dream of homeownership." Yes, along with shopping and invading countries that pose no military threat to us, homeownership is now part of the American Dream lexicon, to be invoked as a single compound noun -- like a German word, only uplifting. There is only one problem I can see with the equation of homeownership to patriotic bliss, and that is homeownership itself. How vastly overrated and costly and crazy-making an enterprise it turns out to be.
I am qualified to say this, mind you, because I entered the holy circle of homeownership two years ago. To say that I was naive about the ensuing realities would be fair, but inadequate.
But then, I had a wife who was six months pregnant and needed a nest to call her own and I, too, figured I was ready to stake my claim after more than two decades spent renting (my nadir being the dungeon studio in El Paso, Texas, whose bathroom had no door). And besides, as I was assured by the panting chorus of fellow homeowners who take it upon themselves to advise you in such situations, real estate never-ever-gabever goes down, so I wasn't even spending my money, I was just "investing" it.
Thus, in the spring of 2006, my wife and I invested in a small cape bungalow in a suburb outside of Boston. As to the exact figure we invested, or promised to invest, I would prefer not to disclose the sum for the sake of privacy, but also because mentioning it causes my testicles to do that thing where they retract into my abdomen.
I mean this as no offense to the home itself, which has, on balance, given us both much pleasure. It is not the house's fault that I failed to buy it sooner. This we can safely blame on my own protracted adolescence and undependable income.
Nonetheless, it bears mentioning that our purchase served as a bellwether for the ensuing housing market collapse. It was as if the keepers of that market were saying, "What? Even Almond has a house now? Time to bail!"
This first shock of homeownership (that property values sometimes go down) was followed by a second: hidden costs. And by "hidden" I mean, of course, "those costs I was too lazy or negligent to consider beforehand."
Property taxes, for instance. My annual bill amounted to half what I had paid in rent. There were fees for water and garbage collection and heating oil and insurance. As a self-employed person working at home, I lost that fat tax deduction I used to receive for rent payments. If only someone had told me -- or pointed me to the right book, perhaps "Homeownership for True Dumbs--ts" -- I would have at least tried to scare my wife into a cheaper house.
But all right, too late. The check cleared. Now we owned this cute, if somewhat cramped, domicile. The appliances were newish and the yard was immaculate and we each had an attic office, even if they were built to scale for leprechauns. I figured we could coast for the next five years.
Then it was high summer and we needed to install air conditioners, to prevent my wife from perishing. She needed other things, too -- drapes, a dresser, a new filing cabinet. And because my own household know-how maxes out at the stage known as putting together a lamp from Ikea, I had to beg my friend Billy to come over and do all this stuff for me, which he did, for free, if you don't count the retail value of verbally emasculating me for hours on end.
And so we proceeded through fall and winter. The paint continued to peel and the driveway asphalt cracked and the bricks bordering our garden came loose and the insulation in our attic crawl spaces began to congregate in toxic, cotton-candyish tufts. These were all fairly manageable -- by which I mean, fairly easy to ignore -- until the structural engineer arrived.
The structural engineer arrived at the behest of his client, who was considering buying the house two doors down. The problem was he'd seen some "step cracks" in the foundation and wanted to see if we had the same damage. (Spoiler alert: We did.)
"Is it bad?" I said.
"That depends," he said.
"On what?" I said.
The structural engineer squinted.
"Should I be worried?" I said. "Can you at least tell me that?"
"I'm really just doing a purchase consult," he said, and scurried off to sow fresh structural doubts in the mind of his client, who did not, alas, become our neighbor.
The cracks in the foundation (about which I could do nothing) quickly led to cracks in the cement wall and granite stone path that abut our garage. I decided, after a brief consultation with a contractor, that we could do nothing about these for the time being, short of prayer. I refuse to go into detail about the water damage. It's already been a long day.
I will mention, though, that my wife is fond of telling friends of ours that if we ever "come into money" she hopes to knock out a few walls in the basement and create a second bathroom with a Jacuzzi tub.
When she says these things it calls to mind those reality TV shows whose central myth of transformation centers on the home. "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," "Trading Spaces," "Flip This House" and so on. These programs are the new pornography of the landed middle class, and they are, in their own way, as cruel as the old pornography. Just as the libidinal 13-year-old will someday discover that not all naked women look like Playboy centerfolds, so too, the first-time homeowner will have to learn that refurbishing your den, even on national TV, does nothing to heal the cracks in your foundation.
Also: the yard. By our second spring, the neighbors had begun to notice that we were somewhat laissez-faire in our approach. We are blessed with very nice neighbors, by the way, all retirees, and it pleases them to landscape with ferocity. Such is the ornamental fervor of suburban culture.
My wife claims she understands this. Still, as she gazes upon their iridescent lawns and geometrically perfect flowerbeds, it is hard for her not to feel a twinge of shame.
"Our lawn is eroding," she informed me recently.
"I don't think that's the right word," I told her.
"What would you call it, then?"
I looked out at the scabs of browned sod and dandelions. "Eroding is when the soil disappears," I said, professorially.
This exchange is characteristic of my overall attitude when it comes to home improvement. I am both self-righteous and incompetent, a truly American combination. The result is a kind of flustered inaction familiar to those who have lived in tenements. Last month, for instance, my daughter dashed out of my office and nearly plummeted down the stairs. I managed to snatch her up, but in the process fell backward and knocked a crater into the flimsy wall of my wife's office.
I have refused to hire laborers to repair the crater, arguing (somewhat plausibly) that we don't have the money and (somewhat less plausibly) that I will do it myself. My stopgap solution has been to push an end table in front of the crater.
In a sense, our political leaders, in tandem with the retail sector, have offered the same cheap coverup. They've portrayed homeownership as a birthright and a breeze. Just plunk down your 10 percent, zip over to Home Depot, and you're home free.
But maybe it's time to admit that many Americans are like me: unfit for the privilege. We buy homes we can't afford, we treat them like piggybanks, and often we lack the aptitude or interest required to care for them. Would it really be such a heresy to return to the good old days of, say, early last century, when fewer than half of all Americans owned their dwellings, as opposed to the nearly 70 percent who do today?
I suspect, as the cheap oil era dwindles and the price of upkeep surges, we'll see a return to collective living spaces. Greater density will mean less privacy. But it might also rescue us from castles we were never truly ready to rule.
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Bungalow
» life is weird (and so am i)I really, really wanted to like the Bungalow. I'd seen the "coming soon" sign for months (which begs me to question, how long is "soon"?) when shopping at the Cascade Village Mall. The tropical theme looked appealing - similar to Rainforest Cafe but a little more low key and upscale. The ambiance is right on. When you step inside you are surrounded by tropical flowers, etched glass, waterfalls,
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Breakfast - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBreakfast, Bend OregonBreakfast in Bend Oregon - Judging from the comments and emails I get everytime I review a Breakfast restaurant in Bend, you all love your breakfast joints.
Below are the Breakfast restaurants that I've reviewed:
McKay Cottage
62910 O B Riley Rd
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 383-2697
[www.themckaycottage.com]
Victorian Cafe
1404 NW Galveston Ave
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-6411
Jake's Diner
2210 NE Highway 20 (Behind the A&W)
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-0118
[jakesdiner.blogspot.com]
Makahna's Cafe
1227 Northwest Galveston Avenue
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 678-5750
Westside Bakery
1005 NW Galveston Ave
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-3426
Cafe Sintra
1024 NW Bond St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-8004
Original Pancake House
1025 SW Donovan Ave
Bend, OR 97702
(541) 317-0380
[www.originalpancakehouse.com]
CHOW
1110 NW Newport Ave
Bend, Oregon 97701
541-728-0256
[www.chowbend.com]
Bend Oregon Breakfast restaurants that I have NOT reviewed:
Alpenglow Cafe
1133 NW Wall St
Bend, OR 97701
541-383-7676
Batter & Beans
824 NW Wall St
Bend, OR 97701
541-317-5717
D & D Bar & Grill
927 NW Bond St
Bend, OR 97701
541-382-4592
Mother's Juice Cafe
1255 NW Galveston
Bend, OR 97701
541-318-0989
Nanette's Cinnamon Roll & Coffee Co
62090 Dean Swift Rd
Bend, OR 97701
541-385-6216
If I've missed a restaurant in this category. Please submit a restaurant via email.
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Steak House - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantSteak House, Bend OregonSteak House in Bend Oregon - I love a good steak. Below you will find all of the restaurants in Bend where you can get a good steak.
Below are the Steak Houses that I've reviewed:
Jackalope Grill
1245 SE Third St.
Bend, OR 97702
[www.thejackalopegrill.com]
541-318-8435
Blacksmith restaurant
211 NW Greenwood Ave,
Bend, Oregon 97701
541.318.0588
[www.bendblacksmith.com]
Zydeco Kitchen and Cocktails
1085 SE 3rd st
Bend, OR
541-312-2899
[www.zydecokitchen.com]
Greg's Grill
395 SW Powerhouse Dr
Bend, OR 97702
(541) 382-2200
Outback Steakhouse
269 SE Reed Market Rd
Bend, OR
(541) 383-8104
[www.outback.com]
Bend Oregon Steak Houses that I have NOT reviewed:
Tumalo Feed Co
64619 Highway 20
Bend, OR
(541) 382-2202
If I've missed a restaurant in this category. Please submit a restaurant via email.
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Asian Restaurants - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantAsian Restaurants, Bend OregonAsian Restaurants in Bend Oregon - I wish we had enough restaurants from the Pacific Rim in Bend to not just lump all of Asia into one group. You know, China and Japan are two different countries.
Below are the Asian Restaurants in Bend Oregon that I've reviewed:
SOBA Asian Bistro
945 NW Bond Street
Bend, OR 97701
Ph: 541-318-1535
[www.eatsoba.com]
Angel Thai Cuisine
1900 NE Division St., Bend
541-388-5177
Kanpai Sushi & Sake Bar
990 NW Newport Ave
Bend, OR 97701
541-388-4636
Double Happiness
2115 NE Hwy 20
Bend, OR 97701
Toomie's Thai Cuisine
119 NW Minnesota
Bend, OR 97701
541-388-5590
Deep
821 n.w. wall street, suite 100
bend, oregon 97701
telephone: 541.323.9841
Ode to Deep by MC Arl
Hong Kong Restaurant
530 Se 3rd St
Bend, OR 97702
(541) 389-8880
Chan's Chinese Restaurant
1005 SE 3rd Street
Bend Oregon 97702
541-389-1725
Sumi's Japanese Restaurant
1444 NW College Way, Suite 1
Bend Oregon
A Taste of Thailand
696 NE Greenwood
Bend, OR 97701
541-815-0180
Typhoon!
Franklin Crossing Building
550 NW Franklin Ave., Suite 148,
Bend, OR 97701
541-385-8885
Mongolian BBQ
61535 S Hwy 97
Bend, OR 97701
541-318-8500
Shoji's
62929 N. Hwy 97
Bend, OR
(541) 389-0701
Szechuan
1600 NE 3rd
Bend, OR 97701
541-383-9033
Bend Oregon Asian Restaurants that I have NOT reviewed:
China Sun Buffet
Bend River Mall
Bend, ST 97701
541-382-1122
Red Dragon
61247 S HWY 97
Bend, OR 97702
541-389-9888
Royal Thai Cafe
2210 NE Hwy 20
Bend, OR 97701
541-312-2240
Yoko's Japanese Restaurant
2670 NE Hwy 20
Bend, OR 97701
541-382-3300
If I've missed a restaurant in this category. Please submit a restaurant via email.
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Italian Restaurants - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantItalian Restaurants, Bend OregonItalian Restaurants in Bend Oregon - I'm not sure why I really have this category. The only good Italian meal I've had in Bend is courtesy of Dr. Juri Spandati from Spandati Personal Chef Services. The second best Italian meal I've had in Bend is courtesy of American pizza.
Below are the Italian Restaurants in Bend Oregon that I've reviewed:
Sbandati Personal Chef Services
1466 Ne Revere Ave
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 610-6278
[www.sbandatipersonalchef.com]
Johnny Carino's Italian Restaurant
63455 North Highway 97
Suite 118
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 318-6300 Phone
(541) 318-6300 Curbside
Staccato at the Firehall
5 NW MINNESOTA Suite 101
BEND, OR 97701
Phone: 541.312.3100
Bend Oregon Italian Restaurants that I have NOT reviewed:
Bella Cucina
450 Powerhouse Dr
Bend, OR 97702
541-385-7774
Ernesto's Italian
1203 NE 3rd St
Bend, OR 97701
541-389-7274
Giuseppe's Italian Restaurant
932 NW Bond St
Bend, OR 97701
541-389-8899
If I've missed a restaurant in this category. Please submit a restaurant via email.
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Pizza - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantPizza, Bend OregonPizza in Bend Oregon - Below you will find all of the pizza places in Bend Oregon that I have reviewed.
My personal favorite right now is the Run Little Piggy pizza from Pizza Mondo. For a quick slice my favorite is Cibelli's New York Pizza on the west side.
Bend Oregon Pizza
Pizza Mondo
811 NW Wall St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 330-9093
[www.pizzamondobend.com]
Olde Towne Pizza Company
118 NW Greenwood Ave
Bend Oregon 97701
541-318-9018
Cibelli's New York Pizza
318-2800 Westside
385-8646 Eastside
330-8646 Tumalo
Papa Murphy's Take n Bake Pizza
NE:
(541) 389-7272
211 Ne Revere Ave, Bend, OR
South:
(541) 382-6767
61160 S Highway 97 Ste E, Bend, OR
Bend Oregon Pizza restaurants not yet reviewed by me:
Abby's Pizza
1115 NE 3rd St
Bend, OR 97701
541-382-7372
Domino's Pizza
210 SE 3rd St
Bend, OR 97701
541-388-4681
Grover's Pub & Pizza
939 SE 2nd St
Bend, OR 97701
541-982-3754
Izzy's Pizza
2940 N Hwy 97
Bend, OR 97701
541-382-2135
Little Caesar's
1120 SE 3rd St
Bend, OR 97702
541-312-3377
Little Pizza Paradise
2625 NE Butler Mkt
Bend, OR 97701
541-312-2577
Papa John's
755 NE Greenwood
Bend, OR 97702
541-385-7272
Papa's Pizza Parlor
Bend, OR 97701
541-317-9095
Pizza Hut
2139 NW 3rd
Bend, OR 97701
541-389-5991
Pizzicato Gourmet Pizza
1288 SW Simpson
Bend, OR 97702
541-382-1228
Round Table Pizza
1552 NE 3rd
Bend, OR 97701
541-389-2963
If I've missed a restaurant in this category. Please submit a restaurant via email.
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7:00
Bend Data Blow
» Bend Bubble 2I figure it's time for a data blow, where a lot of the local RE trends are chartified, tablefied, and finally, crucified. But first...
I noticed over at BendBB & Jesse Felder's My Back Pages that Notices Of Default have exploded in Deschutes County. We started the year with "just" 91 in January, and already in the first 4 days of May there were 43! Even Jesse posted an actual NOD he saw taped up in his neighborhood.
He said posting NOD's was becoming a regular epidemic where he lived:
3 defaults hit my neighborhood over the past week. I took this picture of one of the NOD's this morning on a walk and all the while I heard this song in my head: Come gather 'round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon...
And here's a related post from Jesse about the recent Bulletin piece regarding defaults:Today's Bulletin reports that local default notices are off the charts:
And you see the requisite plummet in CACB shares:Notices of early default, which are typically filed when borrowers fall three or more months behind on their house payments, rose 245 percent in April over April 2007, according to data from the Deschutes County Clerk’s Office. There were 114 pre-foreclosure notices filed last month. In the first four months of 2008, default notices are running 261 percent ahead of the same period a year ago, hitting 437 for the period. In the first week of May, 53 notices were filed.
Cascade Bancorp, 1 year
And CACB, after some pretty impressive short term rallies, ended this week in a final plunge to multi-year lows:
CACB, 10 days - close $8.78/sh
I still think it is a miracle that Moss Co has not been fired yet. Seems like everyone in Bend suspends their disbelief over Bad Situations for as long as they possibly can.
Although it should be pointed out the Sliver (silver?) Lining with respect to CACB, and Bend housing in general:
As things fall in price, people generally will buy more of it. We had a nice pop in units sold when medians tanked to the recent $270K for April.
CACB book value is about $279MM, while it's market value is $246.5MM. We're heading into Deep Value valuations here. We're not really well-entrenched yet, but CACB is starting to have some appeal on a buyout basis. If we see the sixes, I might actually have to have a taste....
And just another quick diversion in the stock arena. Once in awhile I watch NBR on OPB, with the fabulously tan Paul Kangas. And I just peripherally noticed that Monaco Coach scrolled across the screen around $5, which I assumed was post-split, cuz I just saw this baby around $10 not too long ago.
Monaco Coach, 5 year chart
Nope. There wasn't a split. Monaco, which used to have a decent sized presence in Bend, has just collapsed. After market trades were in the $4.60/sh range Friday. The book on this one is $315MM, and it's selling for $153MM, or less than half book.
Could go less, but MNC qualifies as Paul-doh's Lottery Ticket Investment of the Week. Buy at $4.60/sh., go Rumpelstiltskin on it for 5-6 years, and see what happens. Possible 10 bagger. Last time I had this feeling it was Perini back in mid-2002, in the $3's and $4's
PCR, 5 year
OK, now for a little of BendBB's chartified goodness.
Here is the chart of the MEDIAN asking prices for all listings, cut up by city:
Cent OR Asking Price Medians for listings
Bend itself is almost too boring for words, having been within $1,000 of $400K for many months. That belies the real trend, which is pretty clear here:
Median PPSF
The trend in Bend Price per Sq Ft continues monotonic Down. Median's a year ago for Bend were $226/sf, and are $200/sf today (down 11.5%). Similarly, Sisters was $262/sf a year ago, and is at $242/sf today (down 7.6%).
Redmond actually did OK with a relatively small decline from $183/sf in Apr 2007 to $174/sf for Apr 2008, or a 4.9% fall.
Sunriver continues to defy bad news, and rose from $279/sf to $287/sf last month. Is Sunriver the M1 Abrams tank of RE or just the Last Domino to Fall? I dunno, but that place continues to be a bastion of Cent OR RE strength, when all else is falling apart.
Here's a look at the median sqft of homes listed:
Median SQFT
Mainly a lot of bouncing around, except for Bend, which has been on a long-term increase in the size of homes being listed. At 1,900sf last Apr, we just crossed over the 2,000sf area last month, to a 2,003sf median for Apr 2008.
And finally, this is PPSF medians indexed to 0, for ease of comparison sake:
PPSF Medians, Indexed to 0.0%
You can see that in The Real Towns of Bend & Redmond, that prices have been in a grueling decline for almost the entire period.
The much lower volume, and hence probably more suspect trends of Sisters & Sunriver have diverged, with Sisters in a jagged decline, and Sunriver just marching slowly and steadily higher.
OK, now for the straight up MEDIAN for Bend residential solds, since Jan 2007 (data courtesy of Go Bend):
Bend Median residential SOLD prices, Jan 2007 - Apr 2008
The final data point in April was provided by our own Data Goddess, marge.
You can see things have gone to the unpleasant side of $300K in quite a hurry. Data from Case-Schiller shows that this sort of macro-plunge has built up a good head of steam in other larger mega-bubble cities like Vegas & Miami for well over 18 months now.
Of course the Real Story has been the implosion in sold volume. We had 289 sales in the 2 month period, Feb-Mar 2007, compared to a hideous 148 for the same period this year. This is making real estate an untenable career for THOUSANDS locally, a figure that actually does not show up in local unemployment figures due to the Independent Contractor designation of many Realtors.
I hope to see a possible copy/paste of today's Bulletin piece, With downturn, brokers adjust in different ways, possibly in the comments area soon. :-)
And if you look at the "Ask" medians vs the actual "Sold" medians, you can see them diverging quite distinctly. "Ask" medians have dropped mildly from $411,540 to $399,000 last month, or down just 3%.
But "Sold" medians fell from $356,500 last year, clear down to $270,000, or a stunning 24%+ drop.
This tells me something. Bend is a Real Town.
People are asking The Moon for the real estate that has been planted here over the past few years, and they are quite resolute in their ask.
But fewer & fewer of those high-priced homes are selling. In the minds of the sellers of real estate around here, prices look pretty darn stable. But the stuff in the Unaffordable Range (ie over $400K), where no real working Bendite can afford to buy, is simply drying up.
So ask prices continue to barely budge, and the SQFT actually continues to go UP. But no one is buying those behemoths, because Bend is a Real Town paying Crap Wages for the most part, and hence only the bottom of the barrel is even moving.
The problem is only small bits of the bottom rung of homes are moving. Real People do NOT want to live in worker shanty's (shanties?). And the "affordable" sector of homes in Bend are the STD's of the Bubble, or well located "Center" s--t shacks built in the mill-town days of Bend.
People do not like to work their asses off and live in a dive. And they won't. they'll leave & they are leaving. Bend ain't "all that". Bend is a nice, middle of the road place with a nice outdoors scene, but it ain't the White Hot Center of the Universe.
The sooner we realize that, and the sooner we actually begin advocating LOWER home prices across the board (NOT Mirada style low prices, where the lot size & square footage are hacked to nothing...), the quicker this place will recover.
Did anyone notice that with the mega-plummet to $270K medians this month, that sold volume ticked up substantially?
There's the rub. If you want much higher prices then Bend will simply have to become far smaller. And there will be some hard adjusting to the fact that at $400K medians, we won't be a Real Town, there will be mass exodus, and large parts of this place will be a ghost town. I don't think that's really possible.
Lower prices are the only real outcome.
And not to say I told you so, but...
Remember how I've said, once or twice, that you should drop price to the bottom of the range in your locale to sell? Yeah... I've said that once or twice. Back in the mid $300's, there were probably quite a few starry-eyed dreamers who believed the Best Buyers Bulls--t in 20 Decades crap, when really here at your humble BBB2, we have been saying all along that IF you really had to sell & needed to sell, for whatever reason, that the best strategy was to drop the price down to the sleeping point.
And you can plainly see that yesterday's mind-numbing price slashing point are all around you now. NOD's will continue this trend.
Anyway, you can plainly see that there is wisdom there. Look at the median sold prices. The range has imploded to levels that made past "lows" look positively glorious.
We might have some short term stability here, but it will not last. We've gone beyond what people want to do, and have entered into the area of what people (and banks) MUST do. Foreclosures up nearly 300% and other such dire statitics will continue to push Bend towards the NATIONAL MEDIAN, which has just sunk below $200K.
We're a real town. That means reasonable homes at reasonable prices are simply inescapable. The inequities created by the Bubble will soon be redistributed. Those who bought long-ago and sold at the height will profit at the cost of those who relieved them of their over-priced assets.
ROI will out. Should have compared renting to owning parity, and saw that owning ROI would be miniscule or negative for the next 20 years. Rent & Invest The Diff, my friends.
"But where do I Invest The Diff, Paul-doh! Where!"
Well, as you can see by the median sold prices, it almost really doesn't matter, as long as it is NOT Bend real estate. Stick it in the mattress. Bury it in the yard. Buy Monaco or Pfizer stock. Hell, almost anything is better than losing 24% in an illiquid asset that has become damn near impossible to sell at any price.
OK, I wanted to end with a summary of how the largest subdiv's are doing with respect to number of listings & median ask prices. These are listing counts for Apr 2008 vs Apr 2007 (all listings, including bare land):
Broken Top: 72 vs 65
DRW: 67 vs 75
NWX: 63 vs 57
Renaissance@Shevlin: 52 vs N/A
Awbrey Butte: 49 vs 45
RiverRim: 48 vs 45
Gardenside: 41 vs 10
Pronghorn: 41 vs 9
Orion Greens: 40 vs N/A
River Canyon Estates: 38 vs 27
A few things jump out, the first being the jump into the Top 10 Listers by Renaissance & Orion Greens from nothing a year ago. Renaissance at Shevlin has a smattering of spec homes (4 by my count), with the vast majority being bare lots. Orion is 100% bare lots as of today.
I think Renaissances' mass defaults down in Aspen Rim is well-known to all on this board. They have 19 homes down there for sale. They are almost certainly in liquidation mode.
Another lot liquidator appears to be Gardenside, with about twice as many lots for sale as homes (30 and 14 respectively, as of May 11).
Similarly, Pronghorn has hit the wall. They have 16 homes & 36 lots for sale as of right now. Pronghorn doesn't have the excuse of being a relative Bend Noob like Gardenside. Pronghorn has been around for years. They are in talks to save the poor deci-millionaires who funded the project, and just plain don't want to obey Oregon land use laws, poor buggers.
I predict outright sales of places like Pronghorn, which will go through "thin-skinned" BK's whose only purpose is to repeal the CC&R's. Can they? Is that even legal? Don't know... I'm just saying they will sure as hell try.
The rest of that list is a mish-mash of the larger well-known subdiv's around here, some up, some down. But rest assured that Dark Matter remains the Number 1 Enemy around here. It's everywhere, just waiting for a light at the End of this Tunnel.
Here are the median ASK prices for those same subdiv's (this year vs last, HOMES ONLY, no bare land included):
Broken Top: $786,000 vs $759,000
DRW: $253,750 vs $309,450
NWX: $527,000 vs $580,750
Renaissance@Shevlin: $649,900 vs N/A
Awbrey Butte: $849,000 vs $997,000
RiverRim: $473,901 vs $477,903
Gardenside: $279,900 vs $309,200
Pronghorn: $2,924,750 vs $3,900,000
Orion Greens: N/A (no homes for sale)
River Canyon Estates: $434,450 vs $392,700
Adding lots in these medians really doesn't make sense, because then places like Pronghorn would probably show a bare lot as the representative median, while BT would probably be a home, and such.
Again, these are ask prices, and may be reflective of the Kool-Aid that is still being imbibed by the Bubble junkies. Some of these places are so thick with Bubble-types, it's hard to know if there are any "Real People" there at all. The SW side is chocked full of Bubble shacks, and I would guess that many of these people are completely unable to drop their prices.
This is Rock & A Hard Place Time: So many in this town are financially unable to bridge the gap between their asking price & market that they have no choice but to futilely hold the line on their price, but they also cannot feed the beast forever, and are quickly burning through all the assets they've taken a lifetime to accumulate.
What will happen to this place in The Great Deleveraging is hard to say, but I do know One Thing: We'll Get Real. Prices will align with incomes. Incomes here are OK, but not great, which means prices will become OK, but not great, and that means sub $200K.
I want to try (more often) to end on an Up Note, so here goes.
I had the opportunity of spending yesterday doing the Monkey Face Circle Route at Smith Rock yesterday. Besides being one of Central Oregons true geological treasures, and one hell of a nice hike, one gets a panoramic view of The Ranch At The Canyons.
Now, dismissing the fact that this place is a exclusionary gated bastion for the rich, is a prime driver for the Tuscany-themed insanity gripping the Me-Too architecture of current doomed subdiv's, and finally that it has defiled one of the great pristine swaths of Central OR farmland... it still remains one of my favorite "concept" developments. The reasons are best conveyed by photographs:
Ranch at the Canyons, Southern view Right above where the river disappears on the left, you can see the Ranch "clubhouse" or whatever it is. That red pumice road pretty much circles this baby. And you can see it is still by and large, empty space. Nice.
Monkey Face, where the Insane Go to Die. Look at that crazy bastard climbing it!
You can see from this vantage point that Ranch homes continue to be built, and by my reckoning they will be sold. Terrebonne? I know. Furnace in the Summer? I know. Poor dirt farmers on every corner? I know. Doesn't seem possible.
But Ranch at the Canyons is truly a unique location, a concept that is actually being done Right, and is being kept to a small scale that doesn't involve half the World becoming multi-trillionaires to work out. Only relative handful of cash-rich buggers need apply for the lots ranging from $750K - $1.2MM.
And by the looks of it, the houses being built are true monstrosities.
Spec homes in the shadow of Monkey Face
I guess sometimes I underestimate some of the real uniqueness of Cent OR. Everyone comes here touting the natural beauty, and I've been here long enough to take that for granted, and only focus on the "negative changes" I don't like... like Californians. And that's about it.
But this place really does have some unique positives, and Smith Rock is just one of many. The rock climbing there is World class. I met a gal from Germany there. Many of the license plates were from out of state.
And... despite the seemingly ENDLESS whaling on local money grubbing developers, there are a Very Precious Few who seemed to preserve the idea that a concept, NOT A PROFIT MAXIMIZING SHAFT JOB, was paramount. The Ranch at the Canyons, despite a few reservations on my part, is one of those concepts.
And I say this not as a UNPAID SCHILL, but as a message to those who are simply scholcking together shake and bake STD ridden pieces of crap subdiv's. It's crunch time. And slicing & dicing your way to ridiculous profits won't work anymore. You need more... a hell of a lot more.
You need to create some real durable, lasting & hopefully unique value, because slice & dice for maxed out STD placement has been done. Then done again. And again. And again. Again.
You need to actually get back to the pre-Bubble idea of building Good Places To Live For A Real Town. Am I saying that you should build a rich-bitch enclave Tuscan themed mega-gated community like Ranch at the Canyons? Of course not. I'm also not saying you should build an unsellable nightmare like The Shire or Tuscany Pines. These are merely thinly-veiled STD's with a "philosophy" schlocked on.
It ain't easy. Except when you're in a Bubble. Then everyone and their dog can & will become a builder. But this is the backside of that, and frankly most developers will not survive. But when "Normal Times" do return, and they will in 5-10 years, remember the lesson of Ranch at the Canyons. Stick to a concept, execute without cutting corners, try to bake in some uniqueness.
To summarize regarding Ranch at the Canyons, I paraphrase Ferris Bueller:
It is so choice. If you have the means, I highly recommend picking one up.
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Please Support Stifled Unions
» Juniper Ridge Infohttp://www.tsweekly.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2777&Itemid=71
Buying a Bulletin Ad Is Tough for Union
Bend’s Only Daily Newspaper must be so flush with advertising dollars that it can afford to be really picky about what ads it accepts – at least if they come from the union representing Bend Area Transit bus drivers.
Back in mid-April, Amalgamated Transit Union Local 757 tried to place an ad in The Bulletin urging the city not to raise BAT fares or cut service to cope with its budget crunch. The ad also claimed there is a “gross disparity in wages and benefits between BAT workers and every other city worker.”
The union originally wanted the ad to run on Tuesday, April 15, to publicize a press conference and rally to be held at Bend City Hall the next day. But when Catharine Alexander of the union submitted the ad to Bulletin account executive Lisa Legg, she was told the contents had to be vetted by the paper’s higher-ups before it could be printed.
“I sent your ad for approval to our management, who would like you to provide a back up for the claims in the ad,” Legg wrote to Alexander April 10 in an e-mail provided to The EYE.
Alexander responded by sending some supporting documents. Shortly afterward Legg e-mailed: “For each claim in the ad, we will need to know what page of the information you sent over pertains to that particular claim. We do not know how to look through each page and decide what goes with what.”
The next morning, Legg asked if the ad could run on Wednesday instead of Tuesday. “Can we still get Tuesday?” Alexander responded. “I can possibly get it in late, pending approval from management,” Legg replied.
But later that day, Legg e-mailed: “I just spoke to Sean Tate, our advertising manager, and Jay Brandt, our advertising director. They would both need to review every page of the documents that you sent, which wouldn’t be possible in time to run the ad. We would be happy to run an ad inviting people to come to the Press Conference and Rally.”
Alexander next asked Legg if Tate and Brandt could review the ad in time to get it into the Wednesday paper. Legg told her they wouldn’t be able to review it until Monday, when they both would be “on the road, which means we’d miss the deadline for Wednesday as well.”
Alexander then wrote that “we’re thinking the contents of the ad are timeless,” so it could run after Wednesday. She asked again when the ad could run.
Legg responded that “once our directors have gone over and approved the content of the ad, then we can get it put in the paper. If they approve it Monday while they are on the road we could get it in for Thursday.”
But as of April 21, Legg was telling Alexander that her “manager” – Tate, presumably – still wanted more corroboration: “He said that we will require verification of your information and not a list of phone numbers and people to call.”
The Bulletin still hasn’t published the union’s ad. But on April 28 it did publish an ad from Paratransit Services, the Bremerton, WA-based private company that operates BAT, attacking “the Portland union” for allegedly being uncooperative in negotiations.
And on April 20, it published an editorial calling the BAT drivers’ demand for a pay raise “astonishing.”
By April 21, Alexander apparently was getting exasperated. “The Union has placed similar ads in the Eugene Register Guard, the Corvallis newspaper, the Grants Pass newspaper and the Salem newspaper without having to prove anything,” she e-mailed Legg. “This has been true even when the editorial page has been against the Union’s position. If the publisher of the Bulletin doesn’t want to take our ad for political purposes the publisher certainly has that right. But the publisher should say so.”
Although I don't agree with the demand for an immediate raise, I do agree we need a transit system.
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17:16
All Dressed in White?
» The Little ThingsOne of my bestest Bend buddies is getting married tomorrow, and tonight is the bachelorette party. Unfortunately, I've been sick all week, but I'm going to suck it up and go have a drink in her honor. Here's to happy weddings, and to happier marriages. May she have both.
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Why Buy A Home in Bend Oregon Now? - Variety
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
There are more homes on the market in Bend right now than there have been in a long time. Prices on these homes are down and financing is great. Buyers in Bend today can take their time in choosing a home that fits their needs and is exactly what they are looking for.
Three years ago a buyer had to jump on the first home that was close to what they wanted because if they didn’t someone else would come in and buy it out from under them. That’s not to say that still doesn’t happen.
Last winter I was negotiating on a home on Awbrey Butte on behalf of a buyer client when another agent on behalf of another buyer came in and paid full price. My client missed a home they really wanted. It was priced well below other homes on the market and was well priced.
There are more homes coming on the market right now and there is a great choice. My partner just sold a home that had been on the market less than two weeks. Homes that are priced right still fairly quickly!
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Tonight
» life is weird (and so am i)It's Wednesday night, a "school night". You want to hang out with some cool people but you aren't sure where to go. Why not head down to the... Central Oregon Blogger Meet-up Wednesday, April 30, 5:30ish at the Summit, Downtown Bend To RSVP visit this event's page on Upcoming and click "I'm Going!", leave a comment, or email me at jenblackledge at gmail.com The first blogger meetup was a big
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9:46
I'm just saying
» There's Always SomethingIf you're going to bash Bend publicly on the internet and you're a small business owner, don't expect people to come to your business. I can't believe how much of this I've seen lately. When you're a small business owner and economic times are hard, your opinions on your blog can hurt you. There was a vendor we were going to use and based on something they wrote on their blog, we found someone
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7:00
What company will ensure the crash of Bend real estate?
» Bend Bubble 2Well, last week's "experiment" was a bust.
Everyone seemed to not want to hear from me the week before, and that's cool. And coincidentally, I noticed that while we have a tendency to just hammer away at some of the local RE schill's, and that some of that "bile" has seeped into hammering away at Bend in general. Seemed like we were starting to beat the s--t out of each other.
And a long perusal of the comments gave me a little eye-opener: I know what I think are quite a few people in Bend, and I in fact know or have casually met many of the local luminaries that we all collectively hammer on periodically, and you know what?
They're not all that bad.
Timmy, Marge, Dunc, Brucey, rdc... and on and on. Most of the people making comments here are not the pathological locusts we whomp on. And neither are most are most of the people I know personally. Most of the people I know are work-related in some way, and many of them came from... California. And what's funny, is they are... dare I say... decent?
I know several ex Cali-bangers who came to Bend to escape. They feel like CA is an alien landscape, and they didn't really belong. Like transvestites: Born a woman in a man's body, these people are normal decent people, who were born in California. They knew something was wrong pretty quick.
So I wanted a week which was devoid of my take on things (Hallelujah), and just had the comments of you guys. Not many appreciated it, which I suppose is understandable; if I bought a copy the Wall Street Journal and all it had that day were letters to the editor, I guess I'd wanna roll it up & cram it up their corn chute.
Now the flip side is that people are selfish, they act in their own best interests, virtually at all times. And we are going to endure a crushing death blow, especially to Bend's local economy. And some of these people, decent, hardworking, and personable as they may be up close & personal, they may end up like the infamous "Raisin Face" (Heather Clark? Dang, she hot), and just leave a long-term bad taste in your mouth after really getting to know them.
But most people ain't that bad.
Most. Buster.
OK, I love the Buster as much as anyone, but the bitch got on my last nerve this week. Here's a snippet:
Yes, if your an intelligent investor, and your young, and you like to fix s--t, there has NEVER ( in 25 years ) been a better time to buy in Bend.
Only fools can call a bottom, and you don't want to compete with man-twats on after the trough, thus right now when all the man-twats are panicking is a great time to buy.
I mean, what the f--k, did you join COBA this week? Bitch you been talking this thing DOWN 90% at times (remember $0.0006/ac?), and with medians down to a wimpy $275K or so, it's the best time to buy in 25 years? Are you f--king kidding me?
Needless to say, I strongly disagree with this crap. Things are going LOWER, something you've harped on HARDER than anyone here Buster. Way harder. I think it is still, overall, a crappy time to buy, and it will remain so for many years. When we have medians in the $100's... then maybe.
The RE market is a bell curve, some dumbs--ts asking WAYYYY too much, and a scant few offering a decent deal. In the bubble, the latter disappeared. And I mean, DISAPPEARED, extinct. I personally looked DAILY, all day, for a house from 2004 on that represented a decent deal around here, and found NOTHING. Hundreds, and hundreds, and hundreds of properties. Nada.
And it is still very close to those conditions. Is it lower than the absolute top? Hell yeah, but that don't mean dink. Ask marge:
Anyone that buys a rental in Bend before 2012 is a retard and will be feeding the pig forever. Buy it with cash and it's still going to go backwards for a long long time.
OK Buster, on to point 2:
Above click on "Bend Economy" BEM, last month, 30 days exactly BEM published "How to Fix Bend".
This is what we should be discussing, the upside, the down is over. It's Over, its going to take years for Bend to recover. In the meantime we need to stop government spending on PR&MARKETING. 90% of BEM's proposals are good. This is what we should be discussing.
Now here's where I am gonna catch s--t, cuz we're about to go into Bizarro World, where I am contending what BEM & Buster are saying is mostly wrong. Hold on BEM... it gets better. Here is a summary of BEM's points about how to fix Bend:- Raise taxes
- Increase funding for essential services & parks
- Suspend master planned projects
- Cut the destination resorts loose
- Lobby for a 4-year University
Anyway, I STRONGLY agree with #4. These chameleon subdiv's out in the scratch are simply end-runs around Oregon's land use laws, plain & simple.
And the recent piece in the Bulletin shows that NONE of the requirements are really being enforced. There was a purpose to WHY the destination resorts were given exemptions to traditional land use statutes, and now poor downtrodden pentamillionaires like the Pronghorn developers are claiming destitute poverty, and they don't want to build 99.999% vacancy units equal to 1/3rd of their housing stock. They are hoping for something closer to 0%.
This of course, makes them a regular subdiv. They must have their cake & eat it too. Dunc's summation:
Pronghorn gets it's fifth extension.
Disgraceful.
This the old-boy network in full-swing, and if you re-read the piece, you see they are actually in essence subverting OR land use laws by granting never-ending extensions. Unbelievable.
Now, for the other 4 points, I don't agree with. Let me put my objections in the form of an anecdote (you lucky devils):
Say some poor redneck schlub, LeRoy, wins the lottery. LeRoy wins $100MM. Now LeRoy ain't Einstein, and like 99.97% of all dudes, he wants to do 2 chicks at once, and basically live the good life after a hard life of f--king sheep.
So LeRoy lives it up, and I mean MC Hammer style. If he even thinks he wants it, he buys 20 of 'em. He gets jets, takes out his now lengthy list of friends to $1,000 plate dinners, $10,000 hookers, in short he goes berserk. He do it right.
OK, now it's 5 years hence, and LeRoy finds himself in a 1 bed apartment, $200 in the bank, shooting the cracker, no furniture, strung out, hitting rock bottom, wondering what the f--k happened.
LeRoy is Bend. We ain't got s--t, we're f--ked.
So back to BEM's well meaning list. Drawing a parallel to LeRoy, it's like he stood up, dusted he-self off, and proclaimed in Scarlett O'Hara fashion, "I'll never be poor again!". All I have to do is invest wisely (ie "Raise taxes"), spend wisely (ie "Increase funding for essential services and parks"), spend within my means (ie "Suspend master planned projects"), and keep a rainy day reserve (ie "Lobby for a 4-year University").
OK, these are all good ideas. Hell, they're Great Ideas.
But it's too late. LeRoy is down to his last $200. He's got nothing, and the days of making hay are over. He should have done all this to START. Can he take his $200, and turn it into $100MM again with his Good Ideas? Maybe. But it would have been a hell of a lot easier had he done it from the start.
My own philosophy for running a Country, State, County, City, or your life, is to Save when times are good, so you can spend when times are bad. If you do that, and the bad times are not really protracted, or they are evened out by protracted good times, then you should be OK.
If you do what LeRoy did, and spend every single penny on extravagant crap, well, you will go down hard.
Of course, this is exactly what Bend has done.
We can't raise taxes without cratering an already bad local financial situation. We should be LOWERING TAXES right now to stimulate... but we don't have ANY MONEY. We're $20MM in the hole. We are WORSE OFF than LeRoy.
And the same goes for each of the other items. New parks? With what? We're dead broke. Suspend Juniper Ridge? OK, this is one where I sort of also agree. But what do we do with it? Let it rot out there? Sell it? Is selling it even remotely possible? Give it to Les Schwab? My Lord, the City is actually still thinking they can move forward on this thing.
A 4 year University? Again, a great idea whose time has passed. We're busted.
During the boom, we spent on flagrantly idiotic crap. And to make things worse, we exacerbated the situation by lowering our SDC's BELOW COST. And just like underpricing insurance, you can actually watch the money pile up in impressive fashion by doing so. But you'll also ultimately go broke. This happens with amazing regularity in the insurance gig.
We under-priced city services, people rushed in to POCKET OUR MONEY by building homes in roughshod fashion, and now it's time to pay. $300MM to upgrade our sewers, and such. But what are we going to do? Where's the money? What's your answer Buster?
OK, and here's some good s--t:
I have been demanding this for months, and BEM picked up the ball. Not one of you f--kers even read BEM's proposals. But what do you expect from a bunch of lazy retarded renters?? Like you think they actually care about Bend??
OK, Buster, f--k you.
You claim to be a landlord, and you are living off the largess of... who? Yeah, f--king renters. So f--k you & your elitist "owner" bulls--t. Were it not for renters, you'd be cracker ass broke.
And that f--king lame false dichotomy about "Owners Care About Bend, Renters Don't"... Christ, how f--king moronic. I mean, think that if you want, but cripes... that loses you credibility.
No one, NO ONE, has been enumerating an exhaustive LITANY of prescriptive measures for CURING BEND than me. Maybe BEM. F--k, as recently as 6 months ago, I held out hope that BEM's list was at least in some measure implementable. I don't anymore. LeRoy is sitting with a needle in his arm and $200 bucks in the bank. My money ain't on f--king LeRoy anymore, cuz I told the motherf--ker time & time again to GET UP & DO SOMETHING and stop wasting his money, cuz this was a ONE SHOT DEAL & WHEN IT'S OVER, IT'S F--KING OVER, AND IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN.
Well, LeRoy said F--k You. You know what, F--k You Too, LeRoy.
This town is broke, We spent when we should have saved. Even under-priced insurance might be sold by salvageable issuer, IF they invest very well. IF we had done all the things on BEM's list, there MIGHT have been some way to save this place.
Juniper Ridge could have been a fantastic industrial center. But what is it? It's 1,500ac of scrub, whose de facto owner & sole tenant is Les Schwab. Could have been a billion. We actually LOST MONEY on this thing.
4 Year University? Could have been a reputation maker. Could have made Bend a REAL destination, not a Bachelor motel dive. No. We did not pursue it AT ALL, and we briefly had the money.
Parks? F--k that never had a chance, cuz that's about making things good for those that live here, and the City fathers have clearly shown they have NO REGARD for indigenous folks who they've already landed.
So yes, in this strange Bizzaro World, I actually stand alone on this triad against BEM & Buster.
And Buster, a lot of people care about Bend, whether renters or owners, Westside or Eastside, MBA or not, or what the f--k ever sort of categorization you want to put on them. OK Bitch, I bought a f--king house right when I got here, and sold when it just got too much for me to hold. I have been renting ever since, and I don't regret it at all.
I missed the bubble, and by my own investment predilections, I ALWAYS WILL. I may own at +2 STD... but never at 3+. EVER. So I ain't buying, and I won't until IT PENCIL'S against renting. And you stupid f--k, I do have an MBA, which neither confers intellectual greatness on me or not. I never ask people what their educational pedigree is, cuz I don't give a s--t.
The smartest & most interesting people I know graduated from some ho-hum college or not at all. Probably like you, Buster.
And were I to ever meet you, I'd probably like you, cuz I like crotchety f--kers who made it despite the odds. OK, but just cuz you may be a slightly bigger than average polywog in a pathetically small pond, don't make you the s--t. You're just one of the masses trying to scratch out a living, like the rest of us.
And if throwing the rest of Bend under the bus due to some arbitrary division you've made up in your head, and just cuz your old gristle-ly ass has carved out some small scale pile, well, then you're a pathetic f--k. You sound like you're angry & waiting to die.
OK, Buster? As Brucey would say: Flame on, motherf--ker. Really. Flame on.
Cuz the larger issue, is that you & me be birds of a feather, bitch. We've both been banished to the netherworld of Bend RE blogging, cuz we outside the mold. And I am just letting you have it once as just a taste of the smackdown you've given me at least 100X, brother. So now it's your turn for another 100 hits on me... and hopefully you appreciate the knowledge that you CAN throw my fat ass under the bus, and I won't delete it. I won't delete it, but you better expect the occasional blowback on this s--t.
And, let me tell you what the real root problem is here: It's not that we don't have good ideas, and that we couldn't implement at least some of them. It's that the governing structure in this town is so thoroughly inbred, corrupt, and Boss Hogg-ridden, that THEY are the real impediments to change.
Does anyone think our current, local government leaders are even capable of doing anything remotely right? They haven't so far. We'll NEVER get anywhere with the current City Council. Every single one is bought & paid for by someone, most by Bend RE.
So I'm all for implementing BEM's plan, or at least starting on one of them, but the current local government has got to go. Until they are gone, I don't believe Bend has a chance.
And moving on...
Man, I thought the f--king weirdest, most alarming news of the week was that rice rationing story!
Sam's Club, the membership warehouse division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is limiting how much rice customers can buy because of what it calls "recent supply and demand trends," the company said Wednesday.
The broader chain of Wal-Mart stores has no plans to limit food purchases, however.Sam's Club said it will limit customers to four bags at a time of Jasmine, Basmati and long grain white rice. Rice prices have been hitting record highs recently on worries about tight supplies as part of broader global inflation in food costs.
Even KTVZ ran a video piece on this:
Rice shortage fears prompt some restrictions (4/24)
I saw that piece Wednesday, and figured it was going to stay a little marginal piece that I'd have all to myself. Hell no, it was The Leading Piece on Thursday's nightly news!
Food rationing? In the U.S.A? What the f--k is going on? And the public calls to not stockpile & hoard rice was something out of Rwanda or some s--t.
I mean, I knew there would be some strange crap as the result of this housing bust, but food rationing? S--t, even I didn't see that one coming. But I probably should have; the last bout of monster stagflation was accompanied by rationing.
Damn, this is starting to get shades of Soviet Russia before they blew up. Bare store shelves, a government out of control, what's next?
Anyway, this is Yet Another Unexpected Consequence of the Unraveling Of The Biggest Bubble Of All Time. Try to stay ahead, try to capitalize, and not be run over by these things.
OK, now for the headliner. Google will be the death of Bend RE in the long run.
And I should warn you this is more of a personal intellectual exercise, than anything.
I think it's pretty well known that pre-bust, California had some of the most perennially overpriced real estate on the Planet, and it still does. I meekly put forth many moons ago that Cali might actually lead a charge lower in RE prices that would take it to ::gasp:: parity with the rest of the country. Yes, medians in CA within eyeshot of the rest of the country.
I know, this one is still pretty hard to imagine.
Then you'll love it when I say they might go even lower than that.
And what got me thinking this was the recommendation to read Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, as recommended by Timmy. Tim is smart, so I am usually interested in what's on his reading list.
And Taleb's book is actually pretty good, being a rather flowery, and sometimes overly intellectual read about how humans many times underestimate the effects of statistical distributions, how some distributions are different from others, how chance can make life appear contradictory in the extreme, even to the extent of ensuring the survival of the least fit in a species, and so on.
There's more to it than that, but much of it was material I was vaguely aware of, but Taleb is very good at distilling some of the strange & inexplicable aspects of chance, and is especially good at pointing out long term winners are many times in immediate losing positions, and vice versa, and the reality of the now should be very suspect. Holding period returns, whether in life or love or roulette, are strangely bound to the holding period you happen to be in.
And so we come to California.
California may be one of those places that is playing a long-term losing game with extreme distributions in returns, that happens to be having an inordinately lucky holding period return, and that period has just ended.
This may be a fairly tired illustration, but it is quite possible to win huge amounts in a losing game. If you enter a game with a dollar, and a coin is flipped & each time you call it right, your money is doubled, and when you call it wrong, your entire stake is wiped out... you will ALWAYS ULTIMATELY LOSE if you play enough times. Always.
But you can also have a hell of a run. And as Taleb points out, someone somewhere will always have a hell of a run, if the initial population is large enough. And if the lottery teaches us anything, the more skewed & extreme the payoff, the more people will play. And the more people that play, the more fantastic will be the winnings of the outlying winners.
If you can win 100,000,000 times your initial investment, but the chances of you winning are incredibly small, many people will play. It seems they are unable to comprehend that betting $1 in a game having a 1 in 200mm chance of winning $100mm is a Bad Bet.
Change the odds to something comprehendable, like roll a dice & hit 6 and I give you $3, otherwise you give me $1... most will quickly see the poor payoff matrix of such a game. Extreme, almost ludicrous payoffs & chances to win are required to make paupers of the players.
This is what California is.
In all it's incarnations, California is a place of almost unbelievable extremes. The distributions of "returns" is huge.
People go there to hit it big in Hollywood, with almost mind-numbingly tiny chances of doing so. The local restaurants are littered with starry-eyed immigrants who work for next to nothing, just to be close to the action. And what's better, they're intelligent WHITE PEOPLE who will do grubby crap work for a pittance. And like any sharecropper, these amenity business owners are happy as hell to have this vast field of moronic dreamers to choose from & exploit.
Do we see this? No. America does not broadcast losers. We broadcast winners only, and the cruel irony is that a vast swath of losers is the main byproduct of broadcasting winners stories.
But surely, Silicon Valley is different, right?
Hmmm. I don't think so. I would put to you that the current Bay-area "business model" is a horrendous loser, that happens to have had a hell of a holding period runup. So what is this business model?
Well, in short, it is a lottery.
But first, back up, way up... like to Des Moines.
What kind of businesses do you picture being started in Des Moines? Car repair? Maybe a deli? Comic book shop, right?
What do you think of when you think of the Bay? Do you think of it like Des Moines? I don't. I think of the Paris Hilton and Brad-Jolena super powers of the technological World.
Google. I think mainly of Google.
Why? Why do I think of Google, and not Amiga, Go.com, About.com, AskJeeves.com, or even Steve Jobs' neXt, or even O/S 2? Because the U.S.A does NOT broadcast losers, it broadcast winners, and Google is a winner. And what happens to those who start up a winner like Google? Well Sergey Brin & Larry Page get their own Boeing 767's, and a 11 digit net worth, and become kings of the World. We remember Winners & Losers are abandoned to anonymity.
So what is the process by which the Google's of the World are created? Venture Capital.
And what is Venture Capital about? VC's plays a game with companies that is much like the lottery, where the odds of winning are fairly small, but the payoff's are potentially enormous. Again, a situation where the odds & payoffs have become so extreme that there exists the distinct chance of dire investment consequences. And remember that VC is predicated on credit, lots of it, and that game is over.
The situation faced by VC's is this: We have $5 billion, and we can make 100 investments of $50MM each. And there exists a Google-like payoff out there of $25 billion. Do we do it?
Many answer "Yes", without asking the most important question: How many companies are out there to invest in? What are our overall chances of winning? All they see is a HUGE payoff, and they do realize their chances of winning are small, but they don't realize just how small the chances are.
And you might say, "No person would rationally buy a money losing investment, especially those with huge amounts to lose". It happens EVERYDAY. Don't believe me, go look at the lottery payoff. They tell you straight up that they are going to take HALF YOUR MONEY, but many GLADLY buy such claims on future... poverty?
I'll admit it. I have bought lottery tickets. And it is the same reason: My utility for a single dollar is low, but my utility for $100MM is so high, that I am willing to overlook the ridiculously small odds of my winning, and buy one anyway.
VC's can & will buy money losing investments. And what will make them willing to play an even WORSE game? Simple, just skew the odds & payoffs to even greater heights. aka Google.
Google has probably single-handedly kept alive the vast grindings of the VC trade. It's payoff was so spectacular that there again exists, post-NASDAQ bust, enough faith in the monstrous upside of the VC lottery to keep money flowing to losing enterprises for years.
I think the jig is up in Silicon Valley. It certainly did have some true innovative successes in the past. But the VC lottery of today is a long term loser. VC is to Silicon Valley as RE is to Bend. It may not be the entire economy, but it's damn big. And Google, the paradoxical poster child of perennial VC losses, will keep alive the dream for so much longer that, like Bend, the economic demise of the Bay region will be just that much worse & protracted. Mike Hollern & Brooks Resources is our Google. A single beacon of such huge gains that it inspires such a vast army imitators, that the entire game is f--ked.
So just exactly how will the success of Google depress the Bend housing market in the long-term?
Google inspires the long-term playing of a losing game, and Bend has long been the beneficiary of the California miracle. The miracle is over. The chain of events, while seemingly convoluted, should be clear:- California plays a coin-fliping game of extreme risk/reward.
- They have a good run, as statistics dictates... someone was going to have a good run.
- Like LeRoy, they spend like hillbillies in a snowmobile store (Bend).
- They lose it all.
- Hillbilly snowmobile shop closes
The California economic miracle looks iron-clad, durable, and well-founded in fact & reality. It's something like the 6th largest economy in the World, for Gods sake!
Such is the nature of all losers before their streak abruptly ends.
Google & it's enormous success, ironically, will probably have the effect of prolonging the downturn in CA and, by extension, Bend than just about any organization anywhere.
Except for maybe, Bend City Council.
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20:13
Stroller Striding to better health and happiness!
» Stroller Strides - Bend, ORBeing a mom has its definite challenges. Looking out the window and seeing your kid eat a fist full of sand. Hearing screaming from in the other room and finding one kid sitting on the other kid's head. Having your kid draw a mustache on her lip (and only half-a-one at that) because she wants to be like daddy.
All these things can really raise your stress levels. But I'm finding that my moods are so much more even keeled because I'm working out, staying healthy and I have an outlet for my frustrations as well as a wonderful group of women with whom to share my successes.
Stroller Strides is making that difference for me and for the other moms in our classes. It's so fun to do stroller squats and bust out laughing because of something a kid said or did. It's also comforting to share the hurts and challenges with one another. As we support each other we get support in return. How cool is that?
I just ate a burger for dinner with my husband and kids, but I also had a great workout today and I feel good about my body and my life. Times are tough for everyone it's true, but Stroller Strides is really a grounding force in my life and I hope in the lives of the moms in our classes.
I'm so grateful for Stroller Strides. And tomorrow's workout will be much needed (remember the burger?) but also much appreciated as we squat and laugh our way to better health together.
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Short Sales on Bend Oregon Homes
» Bend Oregon Real Estate Blog
The Bend Oregon real estate market continues to deteriorate as more and more home owners find themselves in a zero or negative equity position on their homes. Most of these owners bought their homes two years or so ago near the peak of the real estate market. They put nothing down and probably had an inflated appraisal on the value of the property.
Others took out home equity lines of credit on their homes and borrowed the maximum. Spending what equity they had. Now that the value of Bend area homes has started to fall many people have no where to turn. They owe more than their property is worth.
That’s where a “short sale” comes in. Some lending institutions are allowing current owners to sell their property for less than they owe. This is a pre-foreclosure tactic used by the banks to avoid the costly procedure of foreclosing and then having to manage and sell vacant homes in Bend.
Some good values can be had by purchasing a “short sale” but the proceedure is tedious. Many lenders want at least three offers and they usually don’t respond to an offer for 90 days. You may put in an offer only to find 3 or 4 months later that they did not accept your offer.
Or they may make a counter offer to you in 90 days that is not attractive. The main problem with “short sales” to a buyer is that if the market keeps going down they may accept your offer. But if the market starts going up they will counter at a higher price.
There are a lot of good buys out there but I’m going to avoid “short sales” on the next property I buy.
If you would like to make a comment on this post or on the Bend Oregon real estate market click on “comments” below.
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Public Safety Staffing May Be Cut To 05/06 Levels
» Juniper Ridge InfoIn a subdued meeting with much tallk about layoffs and not filling job openings, the most disconcerting news in the April 14 Bend City Council Work Session on department by department budget cuts were the proposed staffing cuts at the Police and Fire Departments.
This was so troubling to the City Council that they decided to move $100,000 from the Mirror Pond restoration fund to the Fire Department to ensure that all six stations remain open at all times, at least for the forthcoming fiscal year. Even then, Fire Chief Larry Langston stated that "two out of three days, we are out of EMS units for ambulance runs at some point during the day".
Police staffing is also going to be cut, both through not filling current openings and by not filling two openings created by expected retirements this summer. This should not affect call responses or violent crime investigations, but will affect the clearance rate for property and other low-level crimes. It is also expected to affect the budget due to reductions in traffic and other fines.
The complete elimination of Code Enforcement was proposed. Street maintenance is to be cut from $1.7 million to $700,000. The snowplow budget will be reduced to $150,000, in the hope that next winter will not require the $550,000 worth of plowing that this winter did. Transit cuts were proposed to eliminate Sunday Dial-A-Ride service and some mid-day fixed routes, along with bus stop improvements like benches, garbage cans, and shelters. The UGB process will be delayed, and there is concern that if the City is sued over the UGB there may not be enough money for legal defense services. Accessibility projects will see staff cut from six to three. The Affordable Housing budget will go from a proposed $2.1 million to $1.1 million. Engineering will be cut 40%, delaying transportation and utility improvement projects.
The Planning Department is being hit especially hard, as it is fee-based with supporting revenues from permits. Unfortunately, the residential permit level has dropped into the basement, and it turns out that the residential permits had been supporting the commercial permits all along. Department Director Mel Oberst stated commercial permit fees have never been high enough to cover required planning and inspection services, as commercial buildings are much more complex. The General Fund has been tapped to help pay for these services.
Reserves are being decimated, with most departments to only carry 1.5 to 2 months of reserves, while Transit will only maintain two weeks of reserves.
The "winners" seem to be the Community Development and Economic Development Departments, along with the Juniper Ridge and Airport Improvement projects. Both these departments are seeing year-over-year increases in monies from the General Fund, while the General Fund will be tapped to cover $250,000 in debt service for the Airport Improvements, and another $180,000 in debt service for the Juniper Ridge improvements required for the Les Schwab project. Both of these debts do not currently have a stable funding source for repayment.
City staff will return soon with specific immediate cuts, and also plans to revisit the subject in September, with further cuts possible depending on the economic situation going forward.
The residents of Bend will see a definite drop in services, from filling potholes to enforcing the sign ordinances, as the City battens down the hatches in the face of the oncoming recession. -
All hopes hang on selling land this fall
» Juniper Ridge InfoFollowing the City Council meeting this evening, a Work Session focused on budget cutting, I talked to Finance Director Sonia Andrews. We discussed the amount of funding going towards JR from the General Fund, which she stated as $180,000 for debt service on a line of credit to cover our obligations per Les Schwab. All potential cuts in the JR budget as presented last fall have been undertaken. We are still waiting on ODOT for a number of trips that can possibly result in land sales this fall.
Ms. Andrews characterized the City's position as "crossing their fingers" in hope of everything working out. If not, it's dead in the water for now, and the City is paying debt service on the $6 million we will end up in the hole until things turn around. Ron Garzini and, to a lesser extent, John Russell are the rainmakers. Ms. Andrews even admitted that even if the trips are OKed, she has no idea where the money to fund the $40 million Cooley/97 interchange will come from. That's on the Garz/Russell plate.
In a realistic aside, Ms. Andrews stated that even if they can sell 50 acres for only $5 a square foot, half of the $10 that Russell is promoting, but far more realistic for undeveloped land considering Les Schwab paid $7 for shovel ready with no SDC's, that she is off the hook because that $10 million will pay for costs incurred.
There was very little discussion of Juniper Ridge at the actual meeting. Much more time was spent on saving a $100K here or there, than on the big parts of the budget. My guess is that if the voters don't decide to fund the transit system this fall, it's gone. Capell and Telfer already question it's priority, especially considering the deep cuts to public safety.
But strangely, no one questions the developers subsidies through unrealistically low SDC's and permit fees, which has led us to this point. Growth has simply not paid for itself. Councilor Clinton is the only one who even brought this up.
Low SDC's and permit fees-->Planning/Engineering/Road/Utility deficits-->General Fund hits-->Public Safety cutbacks
As an example, consider the city of Troutdale. Per their SDC worksheet, a one-ERU residential hookup costs $4426, while according to the Bend worksheet, a one ERU hookup to the sewer is only $2038. Is Bend's cost really less than half of Troutdale's? Or are Bend taxpayers picking up the difference for the developer?
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Riley's Market - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantRiley's Market - Bend OregonRecently I grabbed a breakfast burrito from Riley's Market over in the NW Crossing Town Center. My friend always wants to stop there for these pita chips that are dusted with Cinnamon and sugar. Another friend swears by their cuts of steak.
I stopped in to pick up a copy of the new parenting magazine - True North Parenting and try a breakfast burrito.
The magazine made for great reading material while eating my burrito. Riley's Market makes their burritos the night before using a tortilla type wrap made by the folks at Kebaba. They steam up the burritos and send you one your way for $5.50.
The burrito was pretty good. The addition of the country potatoes was a nice touch and made the burrito quite filling. The thicker wrap from Kebaba was a nice touch. However, for the same money, I think I'd rather get a burrito at Longboard Louie's thats made fresh and you can order whatever you like on it or spend the extra buck fifty for that delicious croissant from Makahna's Cafe.
I can see that Riley's has potential especially during the warmer months when people can sit outside and eat their breakfast, lunch, or dinner. Being right there in NW Crossing can't hurt much either. For those that live in that neighborhood, they have a nice little market to pick up whatever instead of having to drive down to Newport, Rays, or Safeway.
Riley's Market
2755 Crossing Drive
Bend Oregon 97701
[www.rileysmarket.com]
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7:00
Is Mass Fireclosure In Bend's Future? Hey, I'm just arson a question...
» Bend Bubble 2I guess I should start out with less than obvious money-grab, that we all pretty much knew would happen, from Cessna:
In Kansas, Cessna got quick action from government By Peter Sachs / The BulletinPublished: April 12. 2008 4:00AM PST Two weeks ago, aircraft maker Cessna told the state of Kansas that it needed at least $25 million on top of local incentives if it was going to build a factory for its new long-range business jet.Four days later, the Kansas Legislature passed a package worth up to $33 million, and Cessna agreed to build the factory in Wichita.
The multimillion-dollar aircraft company that recently landed here when it bought Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing isn’t afraid to ask governments for loans or tax breaks when it expands.
But other than saying it wants a tower at the Bend airport by the end of 2009, Cessna has made no requests of Central Oregon governments.
Bend city officials say by all indications, the company is in Bend to stay.
“As far as we know they are investing in Bend; they are investing in that plant; they are hiring workers; they are training workers,” said John Russell, the city’s economic development director.
But the city and the county have few economic incentives to offer if Cessna were to come asking in the future.
“I can’t speak for the board on that issue,” County Administrator Dave Kanner said. “I’m hard-pressed to think of a source of money that we could tap into for that purpose.”
Doug Oliver, a Cessna spokesman, reiterated the company’s commitment to Bend last week, but otherwise declined to comment on the company’s plans. Several other Cessna officials did not return calls seeking comment.
Mark Withrow, the new manager of Cessna’s Bend facilities, told the Bend City Council earlier this month that his company has huge expansion plans, but he wouldn’t go into specifics beyond saying he intends to add 100 more jobs to the plant, which currently has 430 employees.
Withrow acknowledged to the City Council that Cessna needs to bring down the cost of the Cessna 400 and increase its production numbers to make it more competitive.
“Our goal in Bend is much bigger than where we’re at in Bend,” he told the council.
Taking flight in Kansas
Cessna’s roots in Wichita, Kan., date to the company’s formation in 1927. About 8,000 of its 9,500 employees are there, according to the company’s Web site.
The company is Wichita’s largest employer and coupled with several other aviation companies, a key part of the state economy, said Kim Young, a project manager at the Greater Wichita Economic Development Coalition.
The city, county and state provide a number of incentives for Cessna and other companies. For example, businesses at Wichita’s airport don’t ever have to pay property taxes on their land or buildings, Young said.
Businesses can get income tax credits for each new job they add and certain businesses can write off up to 10 percent of the cost of equipment they buy.
The city and county also set aside money from their general funds that they can give to companies as forgivable loans. For example, if companies meet targets for new jobs, then they don’t have to repay the loans, Young said. And the state provides money to help train new employees in a range of industries.
“We’re constantly looking at how we can sharpen the tools in our toolbox,” Young said.
Incentives like those can add up to millions of dollars in savings for companies to build and expand in Kansas, Young said.
“Those are just some competitive advantages we have for business, and we certainly make up for it in other areas” like job creation, Young said.
Cessna’s ability to get the state Legislature to bend over backward so quickly earlier this month was “unheard of” and “unprecedented,” Young said.
“That’s exactly the type of thing that we wanted to do,” Young said. “We have to move at the speed of business, which is very fast.”
If not for the Legislature’s action, she said, there was a risk that Cessna would build the plant for the Citation Columbus jet in another state. The plant will bring more than 1,000 new jobs to Wichita.
Central Oregon incentives
Roger Lee, the executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, acknowledged that the region has a long way to go if it wants to compare to Kansas’ incentives.
“When we first met with Cessna they made very clear what was available to them in Wichita and other parts of Kansas,” Lee said.
Since Bend Airport is in Deschutes County, the city can’t provide many incentives beyond lower lease rates on land. And the county hasn’t shown much interest in creating aggressive economic incentives, Lee said.
“From our perspective, in many cases the city and the county have not been significant players as far as offering incentive packages ~ for this industry or any other industry for that matter,” he said.
The state currently provides some tax breaks for new businesses, but nothing that compares to Kansas, Lee said.
A special enterprise zone the city and county applied for at the start of the month could provide property tax breaks for businesses at the airport and in La Pine if the state approves it. That would mean businesses wouldn’t have to pay property taxes on new buildings in those areas for five years, Lee said.
The city’s special projects manager, Ron Garzini, said it’s not just about having financial incentives for companies.
“It’s not just a financial issue,” he said. “It’s also, if you’re willing to stretch a bit to show a commitment to them, that means you’re going to stay with them for a long time.”
And ultimately it’s those small steps at building relationships between business and government that matter, Young said.
“Not everybody can right away put dollars on the table,” she said. “But if you’re talking about it and working together, I think you’re certainly moving in the right direction.”
Peter Sachs can be reached at 617-7837 or psachs@bendbulletin.com.
Bye bye, Cessna. First HoltzTek, now this.
Lemme say this with some pretty high certainty: Cessna will be leaving the area within 1 year. That's what this article is; an ultimatum.
The thing you should ask about ALMOST ANY STORY in the Bulletin, is WHY is it there at all, WHO would benefit, and what the hell do they want.
This story came straight from Cessna corporate, and their wants are simple: They want to be subsidized in large monetary terms, or they're leaving Central Oregon & they're taking their jobs with them. Look at the tone of the piece: Strong-arming local governments for millions is Standard Operating Procedure for this company. This article is tenderizing us for the inevitable. It's coming, and unless we acquiesce, they will leave.
I would put to you that they knew this on Day 1. I think they know that any rational government in the circumstances our current local government is in, will be unable to pay this blackmail. Heads or tails, Cessna wins & Bend loses.
Pretty standard shakedown. The question is: Will we shoot our wad on them, or Juniper Ridge... or something else? No matter, whatever it is, the tentacles reaching out for the slim pickins' remaining in this one-horse s--thole assure our almost certain destruction.
If we payoff Cessna, we go bust & lose JR. If we don't we lose the jobs, we build some half-assed "facade" out at JR, we go bust & JR ends up a decent wad of blown up lava rock.
Of course, we barely have enough to pay for staying afloat, not withstanding all these bulls--t dreams, like JR. This Cessna money-grab is just the vultures starting to pick the Bend carcass to pieces. And sure as s--t stinks, our City Council will almost certainly cave to ridiculous demands.
Cessna, a Word Of Advice: Pull a midnight holdup, just like Les Schwab. Roll into a City Council meeting and announce a 1 hour deadline on a series of ludicrous demands, and simply threaten to leave town otherwise. You'll get it. But hurry; pretty soon the pickin's will be to thin, and you won't get squat.
An interesting short, little piece on Marketwatch about The Great Unleveraging:
REAL ESTATE No-down-payment mortgages gone for good? Most mortgage insurance companies won't cover 100% loans anymore By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch Last update: 7:31 p.m. EDT April 10, 2008
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- No-down-payment mortgages have been scarce lately. But in the past several weeks they've become virtually non-existent. And it doesn't appear they will return any time soon.
While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still have products that allow borrowers to finance 100% of their home purchase (albeit at a higher cost), recently the major private mortgage insurance companies have backed off from insuring these loans, said Bruce Brown, a certified mortgage planning specialist with First Security Mortgage Co., in Kansas City, Mo. Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp., for example, changed its guidelines last week to exclude coverage of 100% mortgages. At a minimum, borrowers need a 3% down payment and a credit score of at least 680 to be eligible for coverage. In selected markets where home prices are declining, a 5% down payment is the minimum required.
Genworth Financial is another mortgage insurance firm that recently stopped covering 100% loans. In some cases, it's willing to cover loans with 3% down payments; in all markets it will cover a loan that involves putting 5% down, said Mark Goldhaber, senior vice president of industry affairs for Genworth Financial.
Lenders generally require private mortgage insurance for loans that cover more than 80% of the purchase price.
"It's obvious why they're making these changes," Brown said of the insurance companies. "They have to eliminate the losses they're taking." Mortgage insurance companies have been hit hard by the increasing number of defaults and foreclosures, he pointed out.
At MGIC, the changes to underwriting of low loan-to-value loans -- as well as increases to the pricing on some products -- were made due to the recent performance of loans with those characteristics, said Michael Zimmerman, senior vice president of investor relations. But the changes, he said, also reflect a return to more historically normal underwriting standards.
"The more equity that a borrower has -- or, if you will, skin in the game -- in any investment, the more likely they are to have a higher degree of responsibility toward it," he said.
Goldhaber said that those in the mortgage industry also have a responsibility to put homeowners into the proper mortgage product. These days, it's irresponsible to give people a loan for 100%, he added.
"In soft markets like we have today, with declining home-price appreciation, to put someone in a zero down is really inappropriate," he said. "It's the kind of product choice that gets consumers in trouble."
Many people have been finding themselves upside down on their mortgages when the price of the home drops and they end up owing more than the home is worth.
"Putting a person in a zero-down mortgage means in many cases they will lose value on home before they even have the curtains hung," Goldhaber said.
Other ways to 100%
That said, while the conventional no-down-payment products may have disappeared, there are still ways to buy a home without a down payment, said A.W. Pickel, CEO of LeaderOne Financial in Overland Park, Kan., and former president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
"You have to broaden your definition of no-down payment," he said, adding that loan options are available, if not in the form they were in before.
A gift from a family member or a community grant can take the place of a down payment, for example, he said. And down-payment assistance programs are available to help those seeking loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, he added.
They're not offered now, but shared-appreciation programs might also be available, where investors share in the appreciation of a home in exchange for assistance at the purchase, Pickel said. He expects companies to get more creative and come up with other solutions too.
"You will see more unique products coming out," he said, as companies search for ways to help down-payment challenged buyers get into a new home.
But as of now, there are fewer options than there were before for would-be buyers who don't have ample cash reserves. And Brown sees that as an overreaction.
He believes consumers should have the option of financing their entire purchase -- even if it comes with extra fees or higher rates. Someone who doesn't have a lot of cash, but is a good credit risk, for example, should have that option, he said.
"In a lot of ways, we're creating an environment for investors," he said, as the number of renters is sure to grow. "Think of how many people would be in the market over the next several years if they could be in a house for no money down. Those people have no option but to remain renters."
A possible return?
In fact, the existence of no- and low-down-payment loans were one of the biggest reasons the homeownership rate rose during the housing boom, said Bob Walters, chief economist of Quicken Loans. Some sought these loans even if they could put money down, Pickel said.
"Everyone bought into the idea that if you can borrow money, it's better than using your own," Pickel said. "I don't think that's completely gone," he said, but added that now people have woken up to a sobering reality that home prices don't always go up and that putting money down might be in their best interest as a homeowner.
No one knows if, when and how these no-down payment loans will return en masse. But many people in the industry think they'll be gone for a good while.
"I don't want to say never, but my gut tells me it will be a long time before we see mortgage insurers pop back into the 100% market," Brown said.
If they do return, borrowers will likely need spectacular credit and the local housing market they're buying in will probably need to be a "prime market," that is, they'd need to have a small percentage of second homes and investor homes, said Anthony B. Sanders, professor of finance and real estate at Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business.
"Markets such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Diego have higher percentage of second home/investor loans and viewed as being 'speculative' markets subject to dramatic downturns," he said in an email interview. Lenders still may be hesitant to make no-down-payment loans even after housing prices hit bottom, he said.
"But bear in mind that credit events in the mortgage market move in cycles and we swear to never repeat the same mistakes ... until we collectively forget about the last cycle," he added.
This is why recurring Bubbles usually have a total minimum half-life of around 30 years: People burned in the last one, usually will not jump into a similar one for their adult lifetime.
Note the mention of Genworth Financial, the product of the monster spinoff from GE in 2004. And although they ceased to own any Genworth shares in March 2006, and hence should have minimal financial exposure directly from this unit, GE nonetheless took a severe beating in the market after announcing a surprise drop in earnings that shocked Wall St.
Economic aftershocks threaten recent optimism GE's warning pokes hole in recent sentiment that credit crunch has passed By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch Last update: 6:13 p.m. EDT April 11, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street, recently basking in optimism that the credit crisis may have turned a corner, got rained on Friday after a surprise drop in earnings from bellwether General Electric Co. renewed fears of persistent economic aftershocks.
General Electric, whose activities reach a broad spectrum of business and consumer activity from TV shows and commercial loans to industrial turbines, said that profit fell 6%. It placed a big part of the blame on the near-collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos.
The profit disappointment came as a shock to many analysts and strategists who had been expecting that diversified, international companies as well as the broader U.S. economy were somewhat buffered from the big loan write-downs and trading losses that have rocked brokerages and banks this year. U.S. stock markets sold off sharply, cutting into gains made since mid-March.
"Apparently the suggestion earlier this week that the stock market has turned a corner has proven to be premature," Sherry Cooper, global economic strategist for BMO Financial Group, wrote in a note Friday.
The rebound had been fueled by renewed sentiment on Wall Street that the worst of the credit crisis -- including the threat of spiraling financial bankruptcies -- was past. The Federal Reserve's intervention with Bear Stearns contributed to that improved outlook. Plus, financial institutions in the thick of the credit crunch have been forecasting an end, or at least quantifying the magnitude, of the financial losses clogging up credit markets.
For the broader economy, several private-sector economists are looking for a second-half rebound, a view in line with that of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. "A lot of people are taking the Fed action with Bear Stearns as an inflection point that, with financial problems, we're getting our hands around those. That could be true," said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of America.
Reflecting some of this good cheer, U.S. stocks had bounced off the mid-March lows set about the time the Fed and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan Chase & Co engineered an unprecedented bail-out of Bear Stearns. Stocks in financial companies, which have played a lead role in the credit crisis, have gained 13% including Friday's sell-off. The beaten-down U.S. dollar, for its part, has stabilized against some of its rivals, though it continues to notch new lows against the euro.
But a new worry has gained ground. Even as credit markets loosen up, the aftereffects of wide spreads and tight lending standards -- the hallmarks of a credit crunch -- could further punish an already floundering U.S. economy.
"The fear now in the markets is that we won't only have recession, but we'll have deep and prolonged recession. ... It's the knock-on effect of the credit squeeze," Quinlan added.
General Electric, the largest U.S. corporate borrower, showed that convulsions in the financial world can derail even the most diversified of firms. The conglomerate said that "extraordinary disruption in the capital markets in March" hurt its financial division's ability to sell assets and caused it to take higher losses on the current market value of its assets.
End in sight?
Finance ministers and central bankers from nearly 200 countries will weigh in with their own takes on the length and severity of the global financial system's recent troubles, and the related setback to the world economy, when they meet for the G7 meetings in Washington, D.C. this weekend. Plenty on Wall Street, though, say further financial stresses like could surprise markets, sending stocks reeling as they did Friday and credit spreads further apart.
"People underestimate the impact troubles in financial markets have on other sorts of companies," said Steven Bleiberg, chief investment officer for Legg Mason's global asset-allocation division, which manages $6 billion. "We still have to deal with all the negative fallout from the collapse of the real-estate bubble."
Renewed optimism about the state of the financial system had been helping the market move higher, according to Bleiberg. But buying stocks based on an expected end to the credit crisis may be little more than wishful thinking. "There's more bad debt probably lying in wait. To say we're almost done is premature," he said.
Nonetheless, the optimists have a growing pool of forecasts and statements to draw on.
Goldman Sachs Group Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein on Thursday became the latest investment banker to report a glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel, telling shareholders he felt like the financial system was closer to an end to the credit crisis than the beginning, according to media reports. Morgan Stanley chief John Mack puts the U.S. economy in at least the ninth inning of the subprime crisis, and at least halfway through problems from commercial mortgages, reports say. Recent outlooks on the broader economy also are projecting relief. Economists at Lehman Brothers, UBS and Nomura Securities all see a rebound in the second half of this year after a mild recession, or a least a contraction, in the first. Bernanke and some other Fed policy-makers are predicting a recovery in the second half, helped by the roughly $110 billion in tax rebates that the U.S. government will send households starting in May.
"We expect economic activity to strengthen in the second half of the year," Bernanke told lawmakers last week.
Meanwhile, estimates for the size of the pain facing the financial system have been trickling out of brokerage houses and research groups. Global financial institutions already have written off nearly $300 billion in bad loans and investments; they could have as much as $900 billion more to go.
The International Monetary Fund projected earlier this week that the potential losses from the credit crunch could top $945 billion globally over the next two years. Analysts at Goldman, which lost $1 billion in mortgage and securities investments in its fiscal first quarter, put the size of total credit losses at $1.2 trillion.
At the other end of the spectrum, on Friday Credit Suisse put a $650 billion price tag on credit-related losses from the U.S. banking crisis. Lehman predicts that the global write-downs could reach $400 billion by the end of 2008.
Putting a cap on the credit problems, even if it's a high one, has helped boost morale among investors. They spent the second half of last year trading without having much sense of the eventual size or severity a wave of subprime-mortgage defaults would have on the overall financial system.
"It's a critical piece of info for investors to chew on," according to Bank of America's Quinlan.
"Whenever you can quantify the problem, it helps the investors evaluate the risk still in the market."
The S&P 500 Index has risen along with the improved sentiment, though it took a hard fall Friday on the GE news. The benchmark index is up 6% from its 52-week low reached March 17, one day after J.P. Morgan said it would buy Bear Stearns with as much as $30 billion in financing from the Fed. In a first, the central bank also opened its discount lending to securities dealers.
These moves appeared to assure investors that the Fed wouldn't let big Wall Street dealers go bust. They "put a floor beneath financials," Quinlan said.
Earnings signposts, economic worries
The next slew of indicators will come from the biggest banks and brokerages, which are expected to do a spring housecleaning of their questionable credits when they report first-quarter earnings.
Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and several regional banks report earnings next week. It's likely to be bloody.
Analysts have slashed earnings forecasts in the expectation that financial institutions will wipe off as much bad loans and trades as they can. UBS AG already have announced a combined $23 billion in write-offs.
An end to that housecleaning is key to turning the credit cycle around. But one problem is that credit is still inaccessible for some, particularly in the mortgage market, and much more expensive for businesses there than it was a year ago. Those higher costs have lingered despite the 3 percentage-point drop in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate since September.
Rates on Baa corporate bonds, or bonds backed by riskier but still investment-grade credit ratings, have risen to 6.87% from 6.47% a year ago. Their spread to 10-year Treasury notes has widened by 1.6 percentage points.
The costs banks charge one another also have jumped. While mortgage rates for traditional, 30-year fixed rate loans have fallen, the gap between those rates and 10-year Treasurys has expanded.
Even though we have had some good news, "you will have to see the end of write-downs before the fixed-income and interbank-lending markets return to normal," said Michael Moran, chief economist for Daiwa Securities.
Before that happens, consumers and businesses will continue to find it tough to borrow, making it harder for home sales and prices to reverse and exacerbating an overall slump in the economy.
"The consumer is stretched," said Russ Koesterich, head of investment strategy at Barclays Global Investors. "The U.S. consumer will need a long period to repair his balance sheet. It's unrealistic to expect a very quick, robust economic recovery."
Laura Mandaro is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
This GE hit is essentially an admission that absolutely NO PART of this WORLD is exempt from the crushing credit collapse.
I had actually just looked at GE in stunned amazement for many months defy any sort of acknowledgment in the stock price that it was being adversely affected. I was just amazed, because GE is an economic behemoth, and they are in everything.
The Fall of GE is essentially a parallel to The Fall of The Have's: It's like the heretofore unaffected Westsider super rich are actually starting to take it on the chin. No one is exempt from this thing. And unlike all the prognosticators who simply cannot believe their eyes, this will be WORSE than anyone thought possible. This AIN'T the ninth inning of ANYTHING.
And I'm sort of surprised that no one posted the full article du jour. I know, I know. The prospect of warm weather kept me from the bloggage as well. Slow week. Here it is:
Double -digit price drops for Redmond, Bend homes
Sunriver, Crook County prices rise
by Jeff McDonald / the Bulletin
Median home sales prices in the first three months of 2008 fell almost 12 percent in Bend and 14 percent in Redmond from the first quarter of 2007, according to a report Wednesday from the Central Oregon Association of Realtors.Bend’s median sales price — the price at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — for single-family homes on less than an acre was $306,500 in the quarter. Redmond’s median was $220,000.
Elsewhere in the region, home prices dropped 15.5 percent in Sisters, 27.5 percent in La Pine and 9.1 percent in Jefferson County, but prices rose 16.5 percent in Sunriver and 8.1 percent in Crook County, the report said.
The number of homes sold in Bend in the quarter dropped 44 percent, to 222 units, and 30.3 percent in Redmond, to 92 homes, according to the Realtors association’s report of data provided by the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service.
Local real estate officials weren’t surprised by the declines in sales and prices, citing more stringent lending requirements, a lack of buying urgency due to excessive inventory, and concerns about the national economy.
“That’s the market,” said Tom Greene, president of the Realtors association. “Sellers aren’t going to get what they got in 2006.”
Greene expects prices to stabilize during spring and summer but said the market could weaken further in fall and winter.
At the end of March, Bend and Redmond had 12 and 13 months’ worth of homes on the market, respectively, Greene said. That means it would take about a year or more for those homes to sell at the current rate of sales.
The average days a house sat on the market before being sold in the first quarter was 185 in Bend, up 6.3 percent, and 179 in Redmond, up 20.1 percent. La Pine had the highest average days on market, at 288.
The national economy, which two authorities — former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers — said this week was in a recession, could pull the local housing market down further later this year, Greene said.
“We’re coming to the realization that the recession is one of the reasons we’re down,” Greene said. “There is some optimism — at least through summer — but it’s not going to be gangbusters.”
The year-over-year declines seen in Wednesday’s report aren’t surprising because the first quarter of 2007 was the strongest quarter last year, said Rockland Dunn, a broker for Summit Mortgage Corp. in Bend. The market started declining last June, Dunn said.
Several issues, including buyers taking their time to purchase and a perceived lack of financing, are keeping the market soft, he said.
The tightening credit markets and difficulty that some prospective buyers have in securing a loan have made it more difficult to close sales this year, said David Block, an appraiser for Bend-based Cornerstone Appraisal Group.
“Lending practices have changed dramatically,” Block said. “People can’t get out of their properties because values have dropped and they can’t get a loan.”
The region’s two highest-priced markets — Sunriver and Sisters — both maintained year-over-year gains in median sales prices, according to the MLS data.
Sunriver’s price gain was based on 11 sales, however, a 65 percent drop from the same period in 2007.
“January and February were not good for anybody out here,” said Mike Riley, general manager and principle broker for Coldwell Banker First Resort Realty in Sunriver. “But for March and April — so far, we’re up (number of sales) compared to the first two months.”
Heavy snowfall this winter contributed to the sales drop — so did people’s reluctance to drop their asking prices, Riley said.
“Sunriver is a second-home market — it isn’t affected in the same way,” Riley said. “A lot of owners haven’t budged in their prices or panicked.”
Jeff McDonald can be reached at 383-0323 or at jmcdonald@bendbulletin.com.
Funny. This is it. This is The Public Admission That Bend Is NOT Different, that the wave of destruction sweeping this country CAN happen here, that we are not the slightest bit exempt, and in fact are suffering through a price drop that is more severe than just about anywhere.
But it really wasn't a reason to stand up & cheer, or other such nonsense. I mean, if there is some sort of validation for this blogs existence, this would be it. Sure, we've had announcements of a severe slowdown is sales, but no really precipitous price drop.
And I guess it should be reiterated that there are some strange inconsistencies: A computation of months-inventory that looks 20-25% low, statements that Sisters is down & up, and the inane statement that March & April sales are up & "looking good!". Your standard retard could have "predicted" the same. It's like every Realtor in town has "discovered" this UNEXPECTED UPTURN in sales in the Spring. If you are a Realtor & are reading this, this is EXACTLY WHY you people are losing massive credibility.
This is it. It's started. The actual dropping of prices, and in a large amount, too. By my guess a 15% evaporation of home values wiped about $4 billion dollars out of the local RE housing equity stock. That ignores the inevitable hit that commercial is taking, and the monster hit on the Extreme Speculative red-headed stepchild: raw land.
But it passed with merely a whimper. And so it will go on.
We'll start to see the real slimey underbelly of just what this thing means soon: Property crimes, Bachelor scaling way back or closing, homelessness, mass vacancies downtown, Arson Fireclosures, and it goes on. It's really nothing to celebrate.
And the real horror is when it starts taking down regular people who participated to no extent. The de-leveraging is already hitting Main St. Even our favorite Mayor-To-Be, Dunc!
Had my Countrywide Home Equity Loan suspended yesterday. Now this shouldn't have bothered me -- I had no intention of doing anything but paying it off. Still, it was nice to know it was there.
Called them, and they said they were doing it to 'everyone' and that the terms could be 'reviewed.'
Asked the girl on the phone. "If someone who has made double payments on their initial loan for 21 months, and double interest payments on our HELOC, isn't worthy of credit, who is?"
This is just a chunk, and you should really read the whole thing. This thing will leave no one untouched. From GE clear down to Duncan, and you & me. I am as "delta neutral" on this thing as a person can be: I rent, cars are paid, I make ALL purchases in cash, my job is pretty removed from housing & credit problems. But I'm sure that I will at some point be adversely affected by this thing. If it's even from lessened quality of life by living here, that just makes me want to move on.
And as proof that you can learn things from the strangest quarters, I actually had a look at a book recommended by Tim a week or 2 ago, Fooled By Randomness. It's a fairly interesting look at randomness & it's effects on daily life, it's focus being largely on financial markets.
I use the term "strangest quarters" not to deride our brilliant Timmy, but the fact that I was reading a book about randomness, made me think about what a "long strange trip it's been" to the actual reading of the tome.
I was thinking about why I am married to my wife, and my conclusion is that it was a far from deterministic endeavor. It actually involved the strange intertwining of losing someone in my family, losing a job, the confusion of someone involved about these 2 events, their subsequent attempts to get me another job out of sympathy, and my subsequent meeting of my bride to be at this new job.
Such million-to-one happenstance is a common thread in the vast majority of my life. I am writing this blog SOLELY because I saw a short piece on the housing bubble many moons ago on KTVZ, I searched out & found BEM's original blog, I began commenting furiously, and started this blog because of the perceived vacuum of the closing of BEM's kick assery. This sum bitch has taken up a lot of my life. And I had no real Grand Plan for EVER doing anything like this. Almost pure chance.
Anyway, it made me distill my 2 fundamental investment thesii (Timmy?): If there does exist any sort of non-random, exploitable investment situation, to me it is these:
1) The stock market is NOT a pure random walk, there is an UPWARD bias. Otherwise we would be just as likely be where we are as we would stand to be at DJIA 30, at the depths of the Depression.
2) The prediction of the ascent of Bubbles is NOT a formula for making money. But the inevitable bursting of one comes as close to an investment sure thing as such things exist.
Now, I KNOW FULL WELL, that both of these statements violate some long-standing financial dogma: my "idea" of a random walk is that an "upward inexorable long-term bias" means that it's not TOTALLY random. And that even defining a "Bubble" is an exercise fraught with peril.
But there are some "rules of thumb" that seem to exist that allow one, on exceedingly rare occasions, to extract long term excess financial returns, by vaguely being aware of these 2 thesii, and they are really mirror images of each other:
1) Following extraordinarily negative volatile events in World Markets, (OK, I said WORLD MARKETS), you should accumulate stocks. This means once per decade type stuff... max.
2) Following"Bubbles" of extraordinarily large scale & magnitude, you can count on prognositcators to call for The End early & often. They will be wrong, and wiped from memory. The unraveling will be long, painful, self-reinforcing, and durable.
I am even more sure about Bubbles bursting than just about anything. Why? Remember the discussion about how almost any Bubble, left to expand without bounds, would soon consume all Earthly resources? And let to grow beyond that for just a few years would necessitate the creation of a solid gold sphere several times larger than the Earth to continue transacting. I'm not not sure of much, but I'm pretty sure that won't happen. Bubbles bursting are an investment sure thing. They will happen.
Notice that Buffett, whether wrong or right, rarely sells. He seems to follow some sort of philosophy based on Rule 1. He just buys when he believes a companies stock is well below some sort of "norm" valuation, and once he owns, he basically forgets about selling. I believe he bought US Air, watched it go higher, subsequently crater to single digits, publicly state he doubted things would get better, and the stock subsequently skyrocketed... and he sold.
He seems to realize that extraordinary volatility & randomness are inherent in owning stocks. He seems to abolish the "trading" mentality from Day 1. And he seems to make money in a way that seems a bit non-random to me. This is something at odds with this book which states flat out that there had to be a "Buffett" somewhere.
It should be noted that Buffett is a fairly extraordinary investor, but by purchasing via insurance entities, he employs huge amounts of leverage. His Super-cat lines WILL suffer a huge loss at some point, possibly after he dies, but he has piled up enough cash reserves, that he can currently swing bets in the billions without a problem.
The "Best Way" to capitalize on thesis 1 is to: 1) Wait for an exceedingly rare event of large negative magnitude. 2) Buy in wanton excess, and 3) Do not sell. Certainly do not be panicked out.
We are in the throes of thesis #2. I, and many on this blog, and the Original BEM foresaw that the bust would come. And if you recall, there were a non-stop litany of "experts" who said that it might come to others, but it sure as hell would not come to Bend. They were wrong.
And to me, it was no real guess that they would be wrong. If I had the slightest doubt, I would not have ever started this blog. Remember: I did NOT go along with CACB Shorters idea about shorting that stock, because I saw all sorts of peril & uncertainty in that particular bet. My margin of safety is quite thick. I did NOT fully understand their situation, and given a similar choice today, I would again decline.
And the nature of this thing gives people precious little way to capitalize. You can't "short" a house, Case-Schiller indices's notwithstanding. All I can do is wait for a bottom.
So capitalizing on thesis 2 is a bit harder, it is 1) Wait for the INEVITABLE bust of the Bubble 2) Do NOT buy when pundits tell you It's Over 3) Only buy when you are literally being PAID to enter a transaction, practically.
Problem there is these things go farther, harder, and longer than anyone dreams possible. And LONG after the rest of the country begins the slow agonizing process of recovery, we will still be mired in a financial quagmire. Bend, believe me, is going broke. It will be DECADES before this place recovers.
You can either leave or wait. And if you choose to wait, you should have 10 years of BURNABLE cash in the bank. But rest assured that at Rock Bottom, way out past 2015, there will be some spectacular bargains of a lifetime around here. Dunc bought Pegasus for $10K(?), only $5K down. It now provides a fairly comfortable living. THAT is a hell of an investment. Took 27 years, and gallons of sweat equity.. but still, not bad. That there is LONG WAVE, buy at the bottom thinking.
Author Nassim Taleb would have you think similarly that there had to be a "Duncan" who capitalized at the bottom, lo those many years ago. And he "may" be right. But if you are aware of such bargains and believe that economic depressions are not permanent, they just feel that way, that you can buy post-Bust at prices that may never be seen again in your lifetime. But today, is not that day.
Remember: Life Is Funny. It is 90% luck, and 90% certainty. If someone told me 3 weeks ago that it'd snow almost every day this past week, and it'd be 80 & sunny by the weekend, well... let's say I'd have bet against it.
Bottom line: This is NOT the ninth inning, it's the second for Bend.. maybe the 4th for the rest of the U.S. We are going below $200K medians. This town WILL go broke. Cessna IS LEAVING. This is going to hurt like hell. This is all pre-ordained, at least it is to the extent that anything in life can be.
Realize you are living in a fairly extraordinary set of circumstances, in a extraordinary place. The type & severity of financial Armageddon that will happen here, won't happen to 99.95% of the U.S. population in your lifetime. But I am equally sure that it will happen again... someday. Probably long after I and my kids are dead.
But at the end, ROCK BOTTOM, you might have the chance to get an asset, investment home(s) or business, that pays for an acceptable lifestyle for a pittance. THAT is what you should stay attuned to, that is what you should look for. But we are nowhere even remotely close to that today, nor will we be for years. Look for owner financing, look for people who will GIVE you money to get themselves out. Because that is all they will care about at Rock Bottom.
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Great Resources for Moms - New, Old and To-Be
» Stroller Strides - Bend, ORThere are a lot of really great resources out there on the web for moms. I thought I'd put a few of them together for all you moms - New, Old and especially To-Be.- Cafemom.com
- Babyfit.com
- PlaygroupsUSA.com
- Mamasource.com
- Mothersclick.com
- Lilaguide.com
- Mommyandme.com
- Totclasses.com
True North Parenting
My favorites are:
Cafe Mom & True North Parenting
If you have others that you want me to add to this list, let me know. If you are looking for something in particular I can help you search for that too.
Click away mommys! - Cafemom.com
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Prices Fall on Bend Oregon Homes
» Bend Oregon Real Estate BlogThe Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon reported that the median prices of homes sold in Bend Oregon fell almost 12 percent in the first three months of 2008 as compared to the first three months of 2007.
I look for the market to pick up this spring (slow start because of the weather) and summer and then possibly go down more this winter. Next spring should see prices rebound and start gradually up again. The only stumbling block could be a deeper national recession.
No one can predict the bottom of any market whether it’s the Bend Oregon Real Estate market or the stock market. Prices are down and interest rates are below 6%. Now is the time to buy!!!!
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Spring?
» life is weird (and so am i)It's been a rough spring, weather-wise. No... I am not necessarily complaining. And I am not surprised either. But after a "warm snap" in February caused us to cancel the ice skating portion of Boo's birthday party... you can definitely say the weather is keeping us on our toes. And I am SO glad I haven't attempted to "put up" the winter clothes yet. Just to give you an idea of the
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14:29
Happy Anniversary, Bend!
» The Little ThingsOne year ago yesterday was the first day our family set foot in Bend. Thanks for letting us fall in love with you, you great town. We're so happy to be here!
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A Public "Mea Culpa" To Mark Capell
» Juniper Ridge InfoI recently filed a complaint with the Oregon State Ethics Commission regarding City Councilor Mark Capell and his votes on issues regarding Knife River Corp. and President, Todd Taylor, Mark's cousin. Mark's mother and Todd's mother are sisters, as Mark informed me Wednesday.
This was in error, as it is completely legal to vote this way. Oregon state law does not consider a cousin to be a relative in this regard. To quote the Oregon Revised Statutes on the definition of a "relative":
ORS 244.020 (14)(d) Siblings, spouses of siblings or parents of the public official or of the public official's spouse
So cousin's are fine, while in-law's are not.
Sorry, Mark.
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Chow - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantCHOW - Bend OregonMy first trip to CHOW was for lunch. My second visit to CHOW was for dinner. Everyone kept telling me that I have to go to CHOW for breakfast so I finally did. Recently I received a comment saying that CHOW can hang with McKay's Cottage and the Victorian Cafe for breakfast any day.
While I'm not going to go that far, I think CHOW is a nice, quaint, dining option on the west side of Bend. I'm definitely not as in love with CHOW as some commentors or those that write for the Source. The food is good but I'm still having quantity issues. I want more food for my money.
For breakfast I decided on the open faced sandwich. Basically it was Salmon Benedict's on sour dough instead of English muffins.
The Salmon and hollandaise were very good. The bread used for my open faced sandwich was very, very tough. I couldn't cut through most of the bread with my fork. Only the very center of the bread was soft enough to cut and eat with a bite of egg and salmon.
I had an issue with the portion size at CHOW for lunch in the past. This time I thought I'd be safe with and ordered the open faced sandwich, not the open faced HALF sandwich. Look at the photo, my sandwich is one slice of bread cut in half. That is half of a half of an open faced sandwich. That's a fourth of a sandwich, 25%. For you on the metric system, that is aboot a small bite of a royal with cheese.
Think about it, an open faced sandwich usually is one full slice of bread on a plate piled high with tuna fish or sloppy joe or chili cheeseburger or whatever comes "open faced." I don't care what you say, the portions are small.
The potatoes were good and I always like the little extras like the pineapple and pear skewer. So for $10, my breakfast was good in quality but I still feel it is over priced for the quantity that I received. I know there is a fan base already for CHOW and I'm going to get a bunch of comments supporting CHOW. If you like it, then its good. So enjoy it if you want to.
CHOW
1110 NW Newport Ave
Bend, Oregon 97701
541-728-0256
[www.chowbend.com]
Hours
Open 7 days
Breakfast and Lunch 7am to 2pm
Dinner 5pm to Close
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Fixated
» life is weird (and so am i)I am obsessed. Together with Julie and Sarah, I am consumed with the gluttonous task of finding the best cupcake in Bend. Last week it was Nancy P's. Today for lunch it was Allyson's, in Bend's Old Mill District. Convenient that it's right down the hill from my office, isn't it? We needed a good place to scheme about our plans to heat up the tech landscape in Bend. As always, I kept up the
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14:16
Riding, blogging, Mt hood and cascade classic..
» bikebuzzBeen laggin on blogging.. Between a new job , baby in the oven, new business venture,snow on the mountain and life in general well I dropped the ball on this damn blog.
Thankfully so.
Kinda been blogged out..over blogged, blogged under, blah blah blog.
It seems from the bend cycling chit chat mail bag that Bends weekday bike shindigs have been starting up again to take our minds off the opening of the new Trader Joes... Between Monday and Sunday you can be sure to tear off your legs. Me, well it takes about 200 miles or 15 hours on the saddle before I feel much more than a shlump off the back. I have not had the ballz to get in a group ride beyond a Tuesday night moto ride from Sunnyside that was pretty simps.. except the climb up Archie Briggs Trail and down then up Putnum.. So about 8 hours on the bike down... a bit to go.
So I heard the news that the Tuesday Road ride is starting at 6pm at SunnySide bike shop and the "B" version starts at 6:03 (sounds like my cup of tea right now). D ride starts at 6:30, thats my group... (there is no D ride.. that was an april fools joke)
Since I am not really thinking much about racing, its not about speed for me but burning off the layers of boo boo blubber from sitting on my ass too much.
Bad news, I am flying down to the Bay Area for a week of meetings for my new job (good folks but long way).
Good news is when I return temps should be in the low 60's.. your kidding.. snow or bike in the sun. (unless rumors prevail that Bach shuts down April 15th.. lame if they do).
I keep getting thoughts of sitting in a criterium at the high school and feel the rush of the peloton and the draft providing big boys. Might be fun even though I downgraded myself to the slow pokes. Maybe I will just have to race with the old dogs. But then I get the fear that the driving force that pulled me into racing years ago will start its spinning of the web.
The TT seems like a good option to destroy my body without getting too competitive. Maybe that is the route for me.
Looks like some interesting info pending from Mt Hood Classic.. Or Tour De Hood.. Downtown races? uh sa-weet. Takes that little town charm out, but draws in the crowds maybe.. But I think you will see me hooting from the crowds...
Good luck on that venture Chad! Makes me excited for Cascade now that the maps say 2008 on them! Archie Briggs should be paved by late May and a bit wider. Maybe Ben JM and his Bissell team can come out and try and strike revenge for last years beating. Wonder if those controversial inked up and cast aways of Rock Racing will appear? Good stuff. Both races for the North West since Altoona is a 1 day event this year. Phew that one was a doozie but way out there for race fans.
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7:00
10 Ways To Prosper In Bend's Coming Depression
» Bend Bubble 2Let's take a short trip in The Way Back Machine, shall we?
It was last November, the air was crisp, Paul-doh was bearish, "TimToe" was not yet "Timothy", and duncan asked an innocent question over on BendBB...
duncan: Did you guys remove that last message or did the writer? Just curious.
TimToe: Hmm. What was the message? If it was the one about the lesbo strap-on movie, it was probably me. Sorry.
rdc: It was a long message with writer being a guest with name Becky Breeze
I did not delete it.
bendbb: I removed it. It's okay to post anonymously under a handle or a nickname, but it's not okay to post under someone else's name.
Guest: That was a very legitimate letter, It was written by Becky I assure you.
bendbb: Nope, it was clearly written by a troll. If you're that easily fooled, I've got a bridge in Portland to sell you.
not John Melton: Your heavy handed redaction is getting old. What evidence do you have that the post was not legitimate?
Paul-doh!: It WAS real. Don't worry, you'll see it again.
bendbb: Here's a picture of the bridge for sale:
Retail price is $3,000,000, but I have a special deal for you, only $1,999,999.
Paul-doh!: Say what you want, I know the source... it's legit
TimToe: Is it posted on your blog, Paul? I didn't get to read it.
Guest: My mother works for Becky, it was indeed written by her.
bendbb: Let me get this straight -- are you saying Becky Breeze posted that message on this bulletin board? And are you saying you know Becky Breeze?
frazzled: Why don't you just put the post back, so we can all judge for ourselves? We don't need BB being our censor. Instead of deleting a post remove the username or any signature.
bendbb: If you don't like how this bulletin board works, nobody is forcing you to read it and you're free to leave. For those who have trouble remembering the concept of not posting under someone else's name, I've added a reminder in the Welcome topic under the General category.
Guest: Welcome to the bendeconomy bulletin board… Participation is open to everyone. I'll contribute to the discussions when I have something relevant to say, but my opinion is just one of many here. Everyone's opinion is welcome.
That is, unless your opinion is that censorship isn’t wonderful.
bendbb: Your opinion that you don't like censorship is fine, but you also need to recognize that there's no absolute right to post anything anyone wants anywhere on the Internet. If someone wants to participate on a bulletin board or blog where there are no rules there are plenty of them out there. That's not how this bulletin board works though, so if you're going to post here you need to follow the rules.
Guest: What rule did Becky break?
TimToe: The rule is that a person posting under a known name has to be that person. We get people all the time pretending to be other people. I'm sure if Becky signed up, she could post as she likes. It's easy to be skeptical when people post as guests.
Having said all that, WHAT DID THE DAMNED POST SAY? Was it a claim that everything is all fine and dandy? Or an admission that the Plaza is a disaster?
guest: Are those of us who read it allowed to post a summary here or would that be against the rules? I would never claim to know who wrote it--I have no idea--but I saw what it said.
bendbb: Posting a summary isn't against the rules.
bendbb: TimToe is right, if Becky Breeze registers she can post as she likes.
becky breeze: Know how to do this blog stuff. ADMINISTRATOR Please re post my response that I provided under guest before. My smart systems guy Tarris is standing over me and showed me how register and respond properly. The administer will know @ not worry it was me. Dealing with a possible 'real demise' of Ovarian cancer starting 2 years ago this coming Jan, this all seems weird. Just remember when you are all being tough on each other most people are just like you in a lot of ways. No one in this life gets by on a free pass. Stay healthy and get as much happiness out of each day as you can. Come by and see me anytime you want and I will talk face to face with anyone that wants to. It is always good to meet a new friend. It kind of makes me sad that the guy that posted the blog said 'I told her not to do it' There was only one person that said that to me and he knows who he is. That person was told a million times not to do almost everything in his life and has gotten some success from just trying everyday and has avoided financial demise many times by just persevering. Some people want to get theirs and not want anyone else to get anything. Thanks again for all the nice responses you posted that Tarris showed me. One last thing, if people really want the small developers to fail only the big rich good old boys get the products in the sales. If you dislike a few people running your city now and setting their rules then it will be even worse when only a few big guys own everything. It is bad enough now in this small city. I do not understand why anyone would want failure of all the projects mentioned or anyone. We all reflect on each other financially city wide. If a lot of people loose their homes in an area then everyone is affected. I started real estate when % rates were in the high teens and low 20's. For all of you under 50 you may not remember those dark days of empty store fronts and people loosing everything. Tough times and no one except a few people again with the big pockets get richer during those times. Today rates are low, there is tons of loan products and prices are low. These are the best of times for buyers with decent credit. Do something good for yourself and the economy. Buy a home. You do not even have to buy from me. Just buy a home. In a couple of years you will be glad you did. Thanks for reading Becky
Guest: Can I get a better deal on that bridge BB?
Guest: bendbb what in her first post and now second post makes you think it's not Mrs. Breeze?
bendbb: Primarily the history of people posting under other people's names. I think it's prudent to verify that Becky Breeze is actually the person posting these messages, rather than taking it on faith. Becky, if you're the person who posted the messages in question please respond to the email message I sent this afternoon asking for confirmation.
Guest: I was really getting to appreciate bb filtering out the comments I don’t need to see, but now my confidence is shattered- he can’t distinguish a troll from a genuine person making heartfelt comments. It almost makes me question the benefits of arbitrary censorship.
becky breeze: Tarris said some of you asked for stats on the MLS sales in affordable housing in Bend. Here it is and I will be happy to talk face to face with anyone that has questions. All of these stats are from our local Multiple Listing Bureau as of about 3 minutes ago.
Today in BEND residential only(no condos, townhomes, businesses, land,lots,or even residential w/acreage is not included. So remember that for the next numbers provided THESE ARE ALL HOMES STATS ONLY FROM 100K TO 300K
Today 366 homes are for sale in Bend priced from $154,250 to $300,000
Since Jan 1 O7 to today (same price as above only 1K to 3K)
440 homes closed sale and 48 are pending for a total of 488 sold and pending 07
YTD 2006 605 homes closed and 46 went pending 1K to 3K
2005 THE YEAR EVERYONE WAS BUYING HIGH 1675 HOMES SOLD AND 48 PENDING 1k to 3k only
2004 1710 sold and 48 went pending (same 48? no) 1k to 3k only
2003 1471 sold and 48 went pending 1K to 3K only
2002 1266 sold and 44 went pending 1K to 3K only
total dollar volume of each year SOLD
2007 $113,900,514 million CLOSED VOLUME
2006 $161,337,700 million CLOSED VOLUME
2005 $390,093,667 million !!!!!!!!! EVERYONE BUYS WHEN EVERYONE IS BUYING IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME. BUY NOW LOOK AT THE STATS
2004 $355,335,929 million CLOSED VOLUME
2003 $283,074,314 million CLOSED VOLUME
2002 $230,599,099 million CLOSED
For the person hoping for 2002 2003 and 2004 prices. DON'T
Look at these stats hard. This is sad stuff for people who want to sell their homes. Forget the developers and builders. Think about yourself owning a home and just being transferred or having to go into an assisted living place. Think about all the guys who want to work in the trades. It is gruesome out the upside is it IS the best BUYERS market I have seen in 28 years. It all has a ripple effect and it can effect you no matter who you are. I got an email from someone from this site and I told them it was me and to re post that first response. So here we go.
Thanks Becky
Ducnan(sic): Becky, Out of the last 205 price changes that this bulletin board has listed, 202 were down and only three were up. Why wouldn't a buyer wait? If there is the slightest concern they'll miss an upturn, then need only watch the list and if, let's say 25% go up, THEN start looking.
Paul-doh!: Agreed. You say "Buy a house now"... are you glad you jumped into the development business when you did? You own 38 "houses"... are you glad? Seriously. "Buy a house, you'll be glad you did." is advice that does not seem to be working. Prices went to levels that are unsustainable, IMO. WHAT IF prices go down 30-40%, and STAY THERE. I'd be happy to BUY at those prices, but I'd be quite upset to buy today & lose so much that I'm underwater. Especially if I HAD TO sell & move. That amount would wipe out many, many people. And why BUY a house for $2500-3000/mo mortgage, when you can rent it for $1,100, and invest the difference? That financial equation will NEVER make sense. I agree that "buying" a house HAS ALWAYS been a dominant investment in the past -- leverage works for you, and prices seemed to steadily inch higher. No more. This thing will be a bloodbath. And not to be facetious or cruel, but honestly, you own 38 residences... are you "glad you do"?
bendbb: I'm pleased to report that Becky Breeze replied to my email message and confirmed that she registered on the bulletin board earlier today. She requested that I repost the message I deleted earlier in this topic, so here it is.
--------------------------------------------------
The article for my demise is kind of weird. A wonderful guy Tarris Rogers who has been with my company for 12 years told me to look at this BLOG you have on your site. There were some nice things said in yesterdays BLOG and some bad things. You BLOGGERS do NOT know I was diagnosed with ovarian cancer a few months into the Plaza project. Miss Healthy here, who never gets sick ,what was that? Then I learned that prostate and ovarian and breast cancer has nothing to do with diet. AND the PAP smear has nothing to do with diagnosis because the PAP smear is a viral situation and Ovarian cancer is not detectable unless a good doctor like Dr Mary Ellen Coulter is able to find it in an examination or by a pelvic ultrasound. WOW what a bummer that was, and chemo and two major sugeries NOW THAT IS DEMISE! My wonderful husband not only stayed at my side through 2 major surgeries & chemotherapy he had to deal with keeping the Plaza going to be the best built 130,000 sq ft building in Bend. Super guy and I love him more every day. It is strange to me that a Blog Person would hope for my demise in a business deal (no big deal there will be another one if this deal it REALLY does not work out because of our present market. If BLOGS were around when Bill Smith was begging for money from Les Schwab & Matt Day in the original days of his dreaming of an extension of town in the middle of an old abandoned mill site, DEQ disaster, fixed, now known as the Old Mill. Thank goodness Blogs were not around then. He would have been on your hot plate. Blogs were not around to call for Haydens demise for his BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about that has been selling product for 5 years, OTTER RUN on the market for 6 years, OLD MILL QUARTER or any other product. ALL of these projects have their struggles but never had BLOGS to call for their demise. For all of the BLOGGERS, please come by any day of the week to see THE PLAZA. To the Blog that said we had, cheap anything, finishes they are confused with other products on the market. We are all custom, and gorgeous. No plastic inserts or plastic anything. Bathrooms & kitchens are all custom finishes. But only you can see for yourself. Remember if you come by it is the BRICK BLDG on Bluff Drive next to AMERITEL INN not THE BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about. You do NOT have to buy one if you come and see it, I promise, but you should have the real knowledge. By the way, this is my first BLOG so I hope I did it right. I am 58 years old last October 24 and have been working since I was a kid every day for my up keep with no gimmees from anyone. I love my life here in Bend (19 years now) and I love my grandbabies. I love my job and my health which is hopeful. I even like all the bloggers because we are just people trying to get by and live through the day whatever the day gives us. You all take care and stay healthy. BB
TimToe: And Becky, I know you want people to buy now. But the Case-Shiller S&P housing futures predict a national downturn in house prices until 2011. When you tell people to buy now, you're giving advice that's contrary to some of the smartest people in the world betting big money. The country went from 61% to 69% home ownership. It's obvious that many of those people couldn't really afford the houses they were being shoveled into. Those poor people were done a great disservice and they AREN'T coming back to buy houses soon. We've run out of suckers. You tell people to buy, but there are no more buyers. Sure, investors could buy, but they aren't dumb enough to buy when YOU tell them to buy.
There follows a tedious enumeration of the evils of censorship, but this thread does illustrate 2 things of particular interest:
1) First, that "censorship" in whatever form is inherently BIASED. Is it WRONG? I'm not sure how to define that, or if it's even relevant. But when you CENSOR people, you are typically working from pre-conceived notions that can terribly misplaced, as you can easily see above.
Is BendBB the worst offender around? Hell no! Cascade Business Buttbangers will go down in my book as the most ridiculously biased rag to ever grace our scrub. The Bulletin & KTVZ are a (distant) second.
But unfortunately this thread & another regarding the tracking of IP's for the sake of "banning" marked my quiet departure from BendBB. Again, it wasn't a Virtual Walkout or anything, it just became quite apparent that BendBB had a wholly different philosophy than I did about what gathering opinions, making decisions, and voicing your thoughts on this place. No one really wrong or right, just different philosophies.
You can say whatever you want here, uncensored, and I don't track f--kin' IP's. I don't want to know who you are (unless you're like Dunc, and you want us to know), and know full well that technological attempts to do so are riddled with impossibilities.
2) You see the bias inherent in people's own opinion's with "Becky's" repeated encouragements for you to "buy a house now"! As a quick aside, let's see how this advice works out.
First, NOD's filed:
Nov 07 - 80
Dec 07 - 70
Jan 08 - 91
Feb 08 - 109
Mar 08 - 113 through 3/27 (nine on 3/27 alone)
Or units sold? Again, MST:
2007
Sept. 113
Oct. 112
Nov. 94
Dec. 79
2008
Jan. 72
Feb. 55
OK, so maybe prices are better? Hmmm... from "MST" over on BendBB:
2007
Sept. $330k
Oct. $320k
Nov. $340k
Dec. $339k
2008
Jan. $312k
Feb. $315k
And the latest medians that I am "hearing" are in the high $200's.
Becky's pleas for you to purchase a home last November seem.... uh, wrong. Why? She is an expert in Real Estate right? She & others just like her are interviewed with nauseating regularity in our local media, as Real Estate Experts, right?
The first, and most obvious reason, is a point covered with pendulum-like frequency here: This town employs "three times" the state average in the real estate trade, a figure so laughably low I have to chuckle every time I see it. Real Estate IS Bend. Take away the RE Bubble, and what do you think this town would be? Sleepy little mountain town, no Trader Joe's, no Bend River Promenade (oh God), no STD's... just a little town without many economic prospects.
This town is literally run by RE-slanted Boss Hogg's. You can see it in the predisposition of the COBA-fueled nightmare; they assumed that firing up an onslaught of biased PR was How You Got Things Done. "We'll run real stories, national in scope and negative in opinion, off the local front page, by unleashing a torrent of Good News written by Us". They saw & to this day, see no problem with such tactics. Bias is their tool of choice.
But second, these people literally cannot see any other point of view. I think that Becky, God bless her, in her heart of hearts BELIEVES that real estate is a Great Idea And You Should Buy, and that she will believe that to the bitter end. She believes it at $340K medians, she believes it today at $285K medians, she will believe it in the future at $195K medians. She isn't wearing rose colored glasses; they've been lasik'd to her eyeballs.
Now I just love Becky and think she's a sweet gal, and BendBB is probably a good guy & if I met at a bar, we'd probably be exchanging sweet, sweet man love in the back of his BMW after a six-pack of Abyss, and Costa & Hollern are also probably good guys, too.
But folks, these people DO NOT have your best interests, nor mine, at heart. They do not give a f--k if you live or suck dirt. They are out for themselves, like most, and cramming a f--kin house down your throat AT ALL COSTS is what about 50-60% of Bends economy is geared towards.
When you read something along the lines of "Who could have predicted things would get this bad...", you are reading the thoughts of the SELF-DELUDED. I have now seen this phrase used in virtually EVERY Bend Bulletin issue for months. It's been in the national media even longer. Bernanke says it all the time, this countries top economist, local economists, Economic & Finance professors, Realtors, our President, our Chamber members, and on and on.
This country is STILL deluding itself EN MASSE about just exactly what is going on. This IS NOT like all the other "slowdowns". It is so radically different, this country will NEVER BE THE SAME when it's over. NO ONE wants you to think that; that's like screaming "Fire!" in a crowded movie house... or is it screaming "Movie!" in a crowded fire house? Anyway, NO ONE is going to be "made whole" if Armageddon actually happens. No one, not me, not you. It'll be hell.
Wonder how BAD it'll be & why this is The Big One, and you ain't never seen the Big One before? Ok, ask yourself these questions:
1) Did you ACTUALLY lose money in the 1987 crash? That was a Big One, but I don't know many people who lost a "lot". In fact it was a few short years before the Dow was at new highs. Hell, I actually made money in Eastman Kodak puts!
2) Did you get hurt during the Gulf War fall? Again, this was a short-term up & down affair.
3) What about the Thai baht collapse or Long-Term Capital collapse? Nothing here, and I don't know anyone who personally suffered big losses.
4) What about the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble? I DID have friends who suffered some substantial losses on this one. But nothing permanent. They had other assets, and besides they were young & their future income stream was really their biggest asset.
5) Who do you know that will be negatively affected if their home price is CUT IN HALF?
See, that last one is The End. That's just Game Over, because it affects SO MANY PEOPLE & IT AFFECTS THEM TO A DIRECT FINANCIAL DEGREE UNMATCHED IN THEIR OWN EXPERIENCE AND TO AN EXTENT UNMATCHED IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY.
Bend is headed for a 50% off sale. The rest of the US, is probably not going that far.
But is it safe to say that the evaporation of $5-10 TRILLION dollars of wealth from 67% of this countries population is an absolutely unhearlded event that we have never even come close to witnessing?
You're damn right it is.
I don't want it to happen, I just see absolutely no other rational outcome. I keep hearing about this being the unfolding of the worst possible (and most unlikely) scenario unfolding in a serial fashion, each financial event even less likely to recur than the last.
Let me say this: It's NOT done.
We're having a little respite from the Bear Stearns plummet, and everyone seems to be coming out with Rosy forecasts galore, Maria Bartiromo saying ad nauseum that It Is Over, Bear Stearns marked The Bottom, and it's up and away from here.
This is a fundamental MISUNDERSTANDING of what is going on. This is chalking THIS phenomenon up to Business As Usual, and every negative financial event is a reason to Buy Stocks, Cuz Stocks In The U.S. Go Up, and anyone who violates that rule Gets Punished.
Bartiromo attests that each financial setback "rhymes" with all the others in U.S. history, and that the thing to do has always been BUY.
Folks, this one does not RHYME with anything. It is totally unprecedented. NEVER before have SO MANY stood to lose SO MUCH. This is not Wall Street that is losing. It is you & me, and virtually ALL the people we know. People at work, people in your neighborhood, people on this blog, me, Timmy, BendBB, Buster, Becky Breeze, Norma DuBois, Prineville, Sisters, Oregon... this fiasco is literally uncontainable.
The Fed has purchased junk bonds to shore up Friends Of Bush, but it's STILL JUNK. It will still go into default. But instead WE own it, not Bear Stearns exec's. This is our Minsky Moment.
The US is headed toward a fundamental shift in it's economy; the aftermath of this bubble bursting will go on for what amounts to the rest of our adult lives. Japan's bubble is still collapsing, almost 2 decades later. This will not be short, and it won't be pleasant.
What do I want to know?
Is there a way to mitigate losses, and even do well DURING this thing?
Well first, I would avoid purchasing a house at all costs, unless you are prepared to make, in economic terms, nothing for at least 20-30 years. Rent & Invest The Difference is my #1 Investment Thesis... maybe you've heard it before :-)
But Invest where? Well, if I definitively knew that, I wouldn't be writing this, but one idea that people seem to be flocking to seems bothersome to me: US Treasuries. There is massive flight-to-safety buying of treasuries, and yields are incredibly low now.
I do NOT see this being the case in 10 years. We have gone the STAGFLATION route in "solving" this bubble bursting problem, and I see treasuries as one of the WORST investments for the next 1-2 decades.
Of course, debt in general is completely toxic for the moment.
Stocks? This actually looks OK, given the horrible alternatives. Within sectors I would look for stuff as non-cyclical as possible, with ZERO debt. Pharma... Food & Beverages...hell, even take a flyer on commodity inflation & buy some gold stocks.... just a little though.
But real, large scale fortunes will be made in catering to The Great Unwashed, those who finally had to "Walk Away, and Not Pay". There will be MILLIONS of these debt-addled zombies walking the streets in the decades to come. Getting these people into homes, getting them cars, food, and life's other necessities will be Big Business.
"Bad Credit is OK" type businesses. Bartering. Day Laborer outfits. "Work For Food". My God, who knows what people will come up with to accomodate these people just surviving.
And remember: This WILL NOT be some small, insignificant "fringe" group; there will be MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of these people. They will be like blacks & women have been in past millenia: A huge addition to the workforce, that if utilized, will bring untold wealth "back" into our mainstream. Mark my words: There will come a day when broke ass Whitey will be implored by our Goverment (hopefully Obama, for the maximum cruel irony) to "come back to work", after being SOL & marginalized for years.
The stigma of being a deadbeat will eventually mostly go away.
Just remember this when you are reading pieces like the recent "Region's still growing, just not as quickly", from the Bulletin. Wonderful News, yes? We're Top 5 still, and all is well.
Hmmm.... but they buried the fact that we are 17th for the last year measured, which ended LAST SUMMER. A more recent survey of movers show a recent reversal and a VAST OUTFLOW from Central Oregon.
What's happened? Right, THEY went ELIZABETH TAYLOR on us, and smeared the lense with vaseline on some OLD ASS DATA. They want you to NOT PANIC, ALL IS WELL.
What's TRAGIC, is this strategy is backfiring; people are buying this line of BS and refusing to lower their asking prices. So no homes sell. Because there is no money. But Costa & Co do NOT understand that, and are relying on the past rhyming with the future.
"We did this last time & got the greatest explosion of local wealth EVER... we'll by God, do it again!".
Costa, you f--kin idiot, it is DIFFERENT NOW. The money is gone. Your pie-in-the-sky bulls--t is burying this place. Nothing will sell until prices COME WAY DOWN. Why? Again, THERE IS NO MONEY left. Read about the money multiplier if you do not understand why.
Do people want to buy? Yes.
Can they buy at these prices? OF COURSE NOT!
Until the vast Bend RE complex REALIZES this Fundamental Truth, we are headed for an economic quagmire. We will NOT ESCAPE until there is some balance between INCOMES & HOME PRICES, AND we have built a diversified economy not utterly dependent on the extreme cyclicality of RE.
I know you have Good Intentions Becky, Norma, Pam, Hollern & the Rest, but Pollyanna scenarios cannot & will not happen here AGAIN. We had our shot, and instead of bringing sustainable industry of some sort, we doubled down on REd, and now we're screwed. OK, we're in the s--ts, and there's nothing to do about that.
BUT, we can End This Thing as quickly as possible. Stop trying to convince everyone that Bend is different. You are convincing sellers TOO, and they will NOT lower their expectations OR prices, and hence the quagmire continues.
Be straight. Stop REDACTING reality. We Can Take It. Your LIES only make things worse and they make it last LONGER. Stop saying there is ALWAYS A SILVER LINING in Bend, there is NOT. COBA is NOT going to change the fact that NO ONE can borrow ANY MONEY, no matter whether this is the Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, or 1,000 YEARS, and no matter whether rates are 5% or 0%. None of this matters anymore.
THE MONEY IS GONE, THE DREAM IS OVER. GET F--KING REAL.
Well, Buster complains I'm not "local" enough... too much video... so here's what I thought was the most forward-looking piece I could find about the future of Cent OR:
Back to the farm for jobs Laid-off workers line up for limited number of spots By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin Published: March 29. 2008 4:00AM PSTMADRAS — In two weeks, the water will come.
Sucked up from the irrigation canal, it will spew out through the wheel-line irrigation system on Martin Richards’ Fox Hollow Ranch in Madras, softening the cracked soil.
Thirty-year-old Madras resident Walter Rivera will make sure the thirsty land on Richards’ farm receives the necessary water. Rivera was hired to help during the irrigation season on Richards’ farm this year. A laid-off Bright Wood worker, he was one of many searching for farm jobs this spring but one of the few who has actually found one.
Recent layoffs — at Bright Wood Corp., Contact Lumber in Prineville and the wood products manufacturer in Warm Springs, to name a few — are hitting the Jefferson County economy especially hard. The county also saw the indefinite postponement of the 1,223-bed, medium-security portion of the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution and the jobs that would have come with it. And last year, the Culver operation of the boat manufacturing company Seaswirl Boats Inc. closed, eliminating around 170 jobs.
For farmers, that has translated into an inundation of laborers looking for work.
“Two years ago, if I said I need 14 people by Monday, it took me two weeks to drum up bodies,” said Rob Gallyen, co-owner of Williams Land and Livestock in Madras. “And right now, heck, if I wanted 20 people I could probably have them here by this afternoon.”
At Bright Wood, Rivera earned $12.25 an hour, plus benefits. Now, he’ll be working longer hours, for $10 an hour, and without benefits.
“Ag jobs are at the bottom rung of the ladder,” Richards said. “Industry jobs are preferable, construction or Bright Wood, that pays better and it’s easier work. ... Farm work is dusty and dirty, and people look at it as menial. You use your brain at Bright Wood a little more.”
Farming in Jefferson County
The county’s climate is ideal for high-value seed crops — carrot, radish, garlic and grass seeds do well in the High Desert’s sunny days.
In the Willamette Valley, farmers fight the weather. The rain can hinder both the harvest and planting season. But in Central Oregon, the cloudless days lead to longer hours spent irrigating.
It depends on the farmer, the acreage and the crop, but most farmers prefer to hire seasonal labor to plant their crops and oversee irrigation to relying on machinery, Richards said.
“You have more quality control,” he said.
Mike Macy, of Culver, has around 1,600 acres of carrot seed, bluegrass seed, peppermint, wheat and potato crops. In past years, he’s replaced some manual labor with machinery.
“Two years ago, we bought some machines to help plant carrot seed; it requires one-fifth of the people we used to need,” he said. “And the main reason we did that was because two years ago we had a rough time finding people. Now, there are people everywhere.”
Long lists
Macy, of Macy Farms, Stan Sullivan, Kip Light, Jack Ickler and Phil Fines all have something more in common than being farmers in Jefferson County.
Each of them has a waiting list of farmworker hopefuls who stop by their property on a daily basis looking for work.
“They drive around, it’s been that way since I was a young kid,” Light said. “They knock on the door, or they see you out working and ask if you have any work.”
Gallyen said he has a list of around 70 people. And most farmers say they have two or three people stop by on a daily basis.
“Unfortunately, I can’t hire 240 people,” Gallyen said.
Many of the farmers, such as Gallyen, may eventually hire a few extra people when carrot seed planting goes into full force. But, for the most part, they keep the same crew they’ve had for the past 10 or 15 years.
Jefferson County has a short growing season and less labor-intensive crops than other areas, said Bart Eleveld, a professor at Oregon State University in the Agricultural & Resource Economics Department. That could translate into a tougher time finding farm jobs than other places in the state.
“I think people looking for jobs in that sector, well, there isn’t a huge backlog or a number of unfilled jobs,” Eleveld said. “In the Willamette Valley, or some places in Central California or orchard areas like Hood River or The Dalles, there is more hand labor required in agriculture, but I’m not sure if Central Oregon is bleeding in this area.”
Lucky break
There is one area, Eleveld said, where he has heard that Jefferson County farmers consistently need seasonal labor.
“One thing farmers use shorter-term labor on is irrigation,” Eleveld said. “Moving pipes and whatnot, but there isn’t a shortage of people in those positions.”
And Rivera had a connection.
His brother-in-law is Richards’ only full-time employee. On Feb. 25, Rivera received his last paycheck from Bright Wood, his employer of two years. With it came a pink slip. For two weeks, Rivera spent his days driving from farm to farm.
He applied for jobs online. He drove to Terrebonne, Redmond, Bend and Prineville. His name was one of the 70 or so on Gallyen’s list.
Rivera said he’s more relaxed now that he has an income again.
“As long as I’m making money,” Rivera said. “It’s not as big of a problem.”
But with a $500 truck payment, $900-a-month mortgage, two kids and an unemployed wife, money is tight.
At the Rivera residence, Sami Rivera, 36, explained how she hurt her back working at Contact Lumber in Prineville. Once she felt better and tried to get her job back, there was no job to get back.
“I had good credit,” she said, “but it’s taken a nose dive. I’m worried about the house. If we sell it, will we be able to get another one? We could lose everything. I’ve heard of people losing everything.”
The phone rang in the Rivera household, interrupting Sami.
“Not today,” Sami tells the creditor. “I’m not able to pay it today.”
She paused.
“Not for a while,” she said.
Still looking
Since most agricultural work is seasonal, farmers can’t afford to offer their employees benefits and therefore don’t report numbers to the employment office. So finding data on agricultural jobs is difficult and leads to mainly anecdotal information.
“Every shoe store, every dry cleaner, every staffing agency reports their employees to us,” said Mary Lewis, a monitor advocate for farmworker services with the Oregon Employment Department. “But federal unemployment insurance law doesn’t require every agricultural employer to participate in the unemployed system. Therefore, they don’t report to us. From the data perspective, it makes the data in agriculture different.”
Employment numbers for the county, however, are far from anecdotal.
The county saw a 9.9 percent unemployment rate for February, the highest February unemployment rate since 2001. The Bright Wood layoffs have not yet been factored into the unemployment rate.
Francisco Espinoza, 35, of Madras, said his job search has brought him face to face with the competition. On his job-seeking trips to Redmond and Prineville, he often runs into others who are doing the same.
“There are so many people who don’t have work,” Espinoza said.
Necanor Sanchez, 27, also of Madras, was out looking for work when it started to slow down at Mid-Columbia Lumber Products in Madras, and his days were reduced. Now, business has picked up again, and he’s working four days a week, which is keeping him afloat. But like Rivera, his name is on Gallyen’s wait list, just in case.
“Farm work is less skilled, and it’s lower pay,” Richards said. “Everyone wants to better themselves. And initially, when workers come, if they don’t speak English, they take these jobs. And as they learn English, it’s easier to get jobs at Bright Wood. If I was in their shoes, I think I would do the same thing.”
Richards said if he had enough work, he would keep Rivera year round — Rivera has already proven himself a capable, hard worker.
“It’s hard to find that kind of quality. If Bright Wood hired him back, he would probably go back,” Richards said. “We do see a higher quality of labor to choose from. I guess that’s the plus side of it.”
Lauren Dake can be reached at 419-8074 or at ldake@bendbulletin.com.
The high unemployment in Madras is the shape of things to come in Bend. But it's happening there now, instead of later like it will in Bend, because:
1) Brightwood is a "centralized" decision maker about whether half that town working or not, not a lot of individuals, like Bend's RE industry... so we keep hanging on by our 401K's.
2) Most of the people in Bend RE piled it up for at least a few years, unlike Madras, and believe it'll turn around soon, and are burning through their cash
But once the reality DOES sink in, this piece will illustrate what will happen in Bend: EVERYONE in the industry will be "kicked down a notch" in their employment skill set. It's called Underemployment. You make less, you do grunge work, your life sucks.
Yup, even in the shadow of an outdoor wonderland, your life still sucks.
You think we won't hit that 9.9% unemployment rate like Madras? Hell yes, we will! Not this year, but probably next. Sometime within the next 4-5 years we'll probably see the highest unemployment rates we've had in 20 years in Cent OR. We're at 8.3% right now! It was at 5.7% last Feburary! Hell, 10% unemployment for Bend is a slam dunk in the next few years.
All those $120K/yr Realtors will be working at coffee huts. All those mortgage brokers will be working at ski shops. All the "assistants" to these people will be working at Bachelor... and unemployed the rest of the year.
The INCOME is going away folks. And our esteemed Bend Mass Media is STILL trying to talk this thing up again.
People are leaving. Why? Hell, it's fun making money in Xanadu! But once the novelty has worn off, Xanadu ain't so hot anymore.
Stop trying to "convince" people that this place is a paradise & hence, All Will Be OK. It is a paradise, but that don't mean dink. But no force on Earth will stop Bend from imploding on itself, certainly no PR or Marketing crap. There's not enough money to save this town. We'll be littered with the Walking Dead, just like Madras, in a few years.
What will work?
1) Property Manager - rental numbers aren't going anywhere but up, and all the foreclosures will ultimately get bought by someone... and turned into rentals
2) Lawyer (legal asst) - Again, foreclosures galore, and scumbag vulture lawyers will be there to suck us dry.
3) Move out cleaners & painters - Residential mobility going UP, and you gotta clean the place each time.
4) Used stuff - Consignment shops might make a comeback when the money gets tight
5) Used RV's - People will need to live in something once their life in wrecked, typically a "one-payment" domicile.
6) Moving & storage - I think there's even a piece in todays paper about the ever increasing need to store stuff.
7) Cut rate Realtors - I think 6% is going bye-bye, and pay-for-service & cut-rate guys will take over the market. This is already big & getting bigger.
8) Car repair - We'll be fixing what we have, not buying new.
9) Ebay, etc - Since Bend's economy is a one-trick pony (Buy this overpriced house, PLEASE!), people will need to start to diversify their own economics geographically, if they actually do decide to stay here.
10) Gas station, Les Schwab - Hey, it's state mandated that someone fill our tank. And spike tires are just a given around here.
So there you have it! I ended on an upnote, even.
10 ways to make cash in the collapse of Bend.
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High Tides - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantHigh Tides - Bend OregonMy first ever visit to High Tides restaurant in downtown Bend was just a couple of weeks ago. I like to consider myself on top of the restaurant scene in Bend but not going to High Tides until recently is almost a crime.
So some friends and I met up at High Tides for a quick lunch and were able to score the last table available in small restaurant. We all ordered different dishes off the menu and I, of course, went for the all deep fried option. Deep fried prawns, clams, scallops, and halibut with fries and slaw...done and done.
For everything being deep fried, it wasn't that heavy. The batter was light and everything was fried to perfection. I especially enjoyed the prawns and could have had a whole plate of just those. The fries had some Red Robin type seasoning on them which I loved.
The slaw was a bit thick with mayo which I'm not a fan of, and it wasn't deep fried so it had two strikes against it. All in all, I think High Tides is a great spot for a nice sit down lunch for an affordable price. I've heard that dinner is pretty much the same menu but twice the price. I don't like that but I've never been there for dinner so what do I know.
High Tides
1045 NW Bond St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 389-5244
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Just like mommy!
» Stroller Strides - Bend, OR
As a kid I remember my mom going to the gym. It had these huge machines with pulleys and straps and wheels. They even had the machine with the big strap that she would put around her leg or bum and it would jiggle. I remember they were all pink. That was about the extent of my fitness role modeling from my mom. She was 6'2" but never played basketball or volleyball - girls just didn't do that in Texas in the 50s - even the tall ones. Instead they took homemaking classes and played the piano.
Well times have changed as you well know. I was in middle school when Jane Fonda revolutionized fitness in America. In colleg
e I had a Cher step video that I loved! Fitness has definitely evolved.
So today when I was doing my personal workout (my non-Stroller Strides workout) it was so cool to see my kids who are only 1 and 2 stand in the living room next to me raising their hands, doing their squats and tapping it out. They come to class with me every day and they already know how to count it down, do baby pulses and "take a walk." They see me and the other moms in our class really working out, not just socializing. They see us sweat and they already understand the idea of good health and fitness.
This is one of the most positive things about what I do and why I'm so grateful that I found Stroller Strides. I'm also grateful for the other moms who join me each w
eek to not only get into shape, but to model a healthy lifestyle to our children. Healthy habits started now will last a lifetime. So cool!
I must say that my mom is now quite the walker and an accomplished swimmer. I'm looking forward to the day when my kids take off on their own in sports and other athletic pleasures and will be able to say that they've been working out since they were born - because it will be the truth!
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7:00
USA: The Worlds Deadbeats
» Bend Bubble 2Probably the best thing I saw all week on the Housing Bust was a CNBC interview by Jimmy Rogers, so here it is:
I love Rogers interview style; he's combative & pissed about anyone even suggesting that he's 1% wrong. So great.
But he's dead right. There has arisen this strange mindset that the business cycle can & should be abolished at all costs. And the primary cost is that the dollar has been let go. We're the New Mexico! The dollar will soon have the same dreadful stench of failure as the peso.
No country has ever printed it's way out of a crisis. In fact, almost all collapses into 3rd World Status have resulted from firing up the printing presses.
And amazingly, in response to what is almost certainly the greatest bubble ever created, our government has decided to throw More Money at the problem. What solves a crash brought on by excessive credit? MORE CREDIT!
How Do You Cure A Credit Bubble?I'm a bit puzzled by some of the underlying thought processses behind those proponents of a massive government bailout of some sort of the US housing industry. On one hand, they seem, for the most part, to be agreeing with the premise that the state of the US balance sheet, whether our private (consumers) or our public (the government) is at minimum unsound and in the long term creates extreme risk. On the other hand, they seem to be saying that the only way out of our current difficulties is to continue to expand credit. Huh?
Via Financial Times (a fine paper in many respects, but can't say I agree with this particular opinion):
Moreover, the US has structural vulnerabilities that Japan did not have: low household savings, untested derivative markets, and a large current account deficit.
But there may be a conflict between the private interest of the banks and the public interest in continued credit expansion.
So, were financially unsound and its in the public interest to become more financially unsound? Continued credit expansion, the so called "hair of the dog" approach is really what we need? When does it reach the point where it's time to enter a good detox center (managed credit contraction) instead? So, levering the entire world's output and the entire worlds stock market capitalization at over 10x thru derivatives alone isn't enough (estimated size of derivatives market $516 trillion divided by $48 trillion world GDP or by $51 trillion world stock market capitalization)? Keep the frat party going as long as possible, keep misallocating far too many resources into financial engineering and real estate?
Then of course, there are those within the "We'll fix our balance sheet by borrowing and leveraging some more crowd" who want to "fix" our situation via some sort of upside down Nixonian price controls, i.e. price floors. So is the thought process something along the lines of "Just because temporary price controls were a disaster doesn't mean temporary price floors won't work out just wonderful"? This via the Senate banking committee chairman (Chris Dodd):
What we're trying to do here, in addition to providing assistance to the homeowner, is to create a floor...
So what is the right price to set it at, i.e. the floor? Is it better set by free markets or by government subsidies? Furthermore, what if Chris Dodd and the like were to actually to "succeed" in putting a floor on house prices (doubtful but lets just play "what if"). Is having housing prices artificially subsidized at levels far above long term trends actually in the long term best interest of our economy? Further, is it in the best interest of those looking to buy a house both now and in the future to not only have to pay some of their tax money subsidizing the cost of housing, but to overpay once more in buying an artificially overpriced house?
It seems to me that trying reflate the bubble in some way shape or form is about the worst thing we can do. The only viable long term solution is to attempt to deleverage / contract the credit cycle to a market driven level of balance, but given the magnitude of the rise, to do it in some sort of managed fashion. As to the particulars of how best to manage it? There are plenty of arguments to be made on each step of the way, sure to provide plenty of fodder for discussion. Some of my own thoughts are here, including perhaps the less conventional belief that it may be time to consider putting away the interest rate tool after this coming week.
Our Fed has already thrown BILLIONS at the problem, trading US treasuries for toxic crap mortgages. So have NO ILLUSIONS, we are BAILING OUT WALL STREET, shoving BILLIONS at Wall Streeters, and all this will be borne by US taxpayers. Add to all this a war that is sapping our finances for BILLIONS EVERY WEEK, and you can easily see that this crisis may be beyond our governments ability to handle:
Sub-prime collapse 'beyond the US Federal Reserve'
By David Uren
March 18, 2008 12:17am- US Federal Reserve 'lacking funds to help crisis'
- Losses yet to come 'easily exceed remaining $400bn'
- Not going to be able to deal with situation on own
But analysts believe the threat to the financial system, which continues to flow from the collapse of the sub-prime mortage market last year, is getting too big for the Federal Reserve.
"This is now beyond the Fed," ANZ international economist Amy Auster said. "It is not going to be able to deal with this situation on its own." Cash reserves drying up She said the US central bank had already extended support of about $US400 billion ($426 billion) to the US financial system, compared with its assets of $US800 billion. She said financial system losses yet to be reported could easily exceed another $US400 billion. "What is missing at the moment is the US Treasury," she said.
But Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has already declared his hostility to federal measures to help the sinking financial sector. "Let me be clear: I oppose any bail-out," he said in a speech 10 days ago. "Most of the proposals I've seen would do more harm than good - bailing out investors, lenders or speculators who, instead of getting a free pass, should be accountable for the risks they took," he said. " I believe our efforts are best focused on helping homeowners who want to stay in their homes."
More could follow Bear Stearns
There remains a vast quantity of financial assets of doubtful value that will expose banks and other financial institutions to the kind of panic that brought investment bank Bear Stearns to the brink of disaster on the weekend. "When the fifth-largest investment bank is in trouble, you have to become concerned about the solvency of the system and the banks in the system," Ms Auster said.
In 2006 alone, there were $US550 billion of "collateralised debt obligations" issued, she said. These are the bundles of mortgages and other securities that have been at the heart of the sub-prime crisis. Ms Auster said the market for these securities depended upon the ratings agencies, bond insurance and collateral. "
All three elements of this infrastructure - the three bands of the bridge have collapsed," she said. When the Federal Reserve announced its extraordinary Sunday afternoon bail-out of Bear Stearns, it also extended a lifeline to all the other major investment banks, offering them access to emergency funding for the first time since the 1930s.
As in Australia, the central bank is assumed to be the lender of last resort for the commercial banks, which take deposits from the public, but not for investment banks and stockbroking firms. But the tangled web of counter-party arrangements that has developed between financial institutions over the past decade means that allowing Bear Stearns to go broke would have jeopardised major banks.
"If Bear Stearns defaulted on their paper, it would pull at least another bank down," senior economist with finance broker ICAP, Matthew Johnson, said.
Drop in the ocean
Mr Johnson said he estimated the Federal Reserve was halfway through the ammunition it had to deal with the crisis. "The $US450 billion remaining is a drop in the ocean compared to the asset classes in trouble," he said, noting that in addition to mortgage-related debt, some of the big private equity deals were beginning to unravel.
The biggest risk to the real economy is that credit dries up, as bankers become scared to lend. Morgan Stanley chief economist Gerard Minack said while the Federal Reserve was cutting interest rates, its efforts were being neutralised by the banks.
"Nobody is enjoying easier financial conditions," he said. Mr Minack said there were no grounds for equating the coming recession in the US to the Great Depression, but it could still be as nasty as the downturn in 1974.
Ms Auster said Australia would not escape the effect of the recession, with its share market having already fallen further than US markets.
So the writing is on the wall: If you wonder which way we were going to swing on letting this thing unwind, it is now clear:
STAGFLATION
There is no Economic Force On Earth that could stop a multi-trillion dollar evaporation in homeowner wealth from SOMEHOW affecting our economy. NOTHING. Throw money at it, bail out Wall Streeters, give every American $600 each, do whatever you want, the s--t is GOING to hit the fan... HARD.
We could have taken our lumps, let bad securitized mortgages take down the idiots that owned them, let foreclosures just happen, and let the natural cleansing process work itself out.
But no. Not only are US taxpayers bailing out those responsible, we are starting up the cycle again. Gee, I wonder what happens this time?
Remember the post about this country actually becoming economically dependent on bubbles? Look at this chart & you can see that is ALL WE KNOW HOW TO DO. In stifling the rampant inflationary byproduct of a stock bubble, we have created an even more monstrous, dangerous and completely uncontrollable housing bubble, and our response?
"Those Who Forget History Are Doomed to Repeat It"
Except this time, gentle reader, there will NOT be another bubble as the result of trying to avert the bursting of the last one. Nope. It'll be straight up stagflation.
But I guess in some respects that IS a bubble. A hyper-inflation in the price of everything.
And curiously, Fed cuts have not EVER been a panacea:
Deep Fed cuts no help for home prices March 18th, 2008posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnistWhen the Fed cuts hard, watch out! LA/OC home prices haven’t fared well in the past two decades after the nation’s central bank throws serious stimulus into the economy. Same can be said for big cities in one nationwide index. That’s what my ol’ pal, Professor History, found looking back over 20 years of Fed and price history. History’s trusty spreadsheet has data going back to 1988 showing the “effictive Fed funds rate” and the S&P Case-Schiller home-price index for the region, plus a 10-city index. Then we pondered what home prices in the year that followed any one-year change in the Fed funds rate. We choose to study this relationship, with a built-in delay, because Fed actions — either tightening money or making it cheaper — takes significant time to work through the economic system. Here’s what was found (Or just look at chart above. Click on it to see larger version!) …• Periods of steep Fed cuts, which we are clearly in, produced on average the lowest home-price gains locally. Nationally, they were below average. Why? The Fed is only this generous, rate-wise, when the overall economy is hurting. And housing, at its core, reacts to the broad economy, not rates.
• Another weak period for housing is when the Fed hits the economy brakes with rising rates. In fact, that’s the worst time for national pricing, based in this 10-city index. Again, the resulting slower economy isn’t peachy for local housing.
• Thus, the best time for housing are those eras when the Fed isn’t much in the news and is either doing nothing or simply polishing its interest-rate policy with minor moves.The influential Fed funds rate is the overnight rate banks charge each other and is a market for many short-term yields. The Fed clearly does not control longer-term rates, such as those that help set many fixed-rate mortgage deals. Still, the Fed’s actions appears to offer good hints at the economy’s future — and seem to show what’s next for real estate.
Here’s how Professor History’s math sliced the past 20 years into five periods, from the ones with the steepest one-year Fed funds cuts to the ones with the harshest increases — and those in between vs. annualized home-price changes for LA/OC and a 10-city U.S. index one year later …
And I just watched Meet the Press with nitwit Maria Bartiromo commenting on how the Fed cuts, and fiscal stimulus will end these bad times.
How ludicrous.
This woman is predicating the idea that we are in some sort of marginal slowdown; a normal cyclical slowdown of a few percent in GDP that actually can be mitigated by Fed action. A slowdown of a few percent usually can be altered by some Fed Marketing; Some sort of borrowing stimulus that brings a lot of projects to a positive NPV by lowering interest rates.
Lowering Interest Rates Is The Root Cause Of The Current Problem!
Bartiromo & MANY, MANY others are assuming that this slowdown is like all past slowdowns. It is NOT. It is unprecedented in history, except for possibly The Great Depression. The worst post-War slowdown was the 1970's -- wait for it -- STAGFLATION crisis, which if you recall, had to be solved with 20% interest rates that literally BROKE towns like Bend for a good 10-15 years afterwards.
But I actually think we might have a short respite from calamity, about 6-9 months. Why?
ARM resets lessening over the next 6-9 months, before a spike higher
ARM resets are actually going to lessen dramatically over the next few months, before exploding again.
Be careful.
MANY will call this The Bottom. ALL CLEAR.
Not so. This will simply draw in new buyers who are decimated in the next wave of resets & the subsequent foreclosures. DOn't even think about buying until The Rest Of The US hits bottom, probably in 2010 or 2011... and of course there will be Bend, lagging 2-3 years behind and at 5X the losses. The decimation here will be simply incredible.
What was The Death Knell, the WORST story of the week for us locally?
Wells Fargo gives Deschutes housing market soft rankingBank may require bigger down payments By Andrew Moore / The BulletinPublished: March 19. 2008 4:00AM PST
Deschutes County home buyers seeking a mortgage from Wells Fargo & Co. might have to come up with a bigger down payment because of new rankings Wells Fargo has given Deschutes and other counties across the nation.
The San Francisco-based financial services firm, the nation’s second-largest mortgage lender, recently gave counties one of four rankings: normal, soft, distressed and severely distressed, according to a Feb. 25 document sent to its wholesale mortgage lending customers.
Deschutes County is one of four West Coast counties with a soft housing market, according to the document. The rankings are based on declining property values, an oversupply of homes and a greater than six-month average to sell a listed home.
The soft ranking means potential borrowers might have to put more money down to secure a home loan, said Doug Houser, the bank’s Central Oregon home mortgage branch manager. In normal markets, the bank can lend money to borrowers with as little as 5 percent down for a conforming loan. Now, because of the soft-market ranking, some borrowers may have to put at least 10 percent down, said Houser.
However, Wells Fargo continues to offer other loans that do not require any money down, he added.
Conforming loans are those below $417,000 for single-family homes, the maximum amount Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy from banks and mortgage lenders. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-chartered private corporations that purchase home loans from banks and mortgage lenders.
Wells Fargo does not sell its loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, said Houser.
The recently signed federal stimulus package temporarily ups the conforming loan limit in Deschutes County for a single home to $447,500.
The down payment requirements for nonconforming loans, also called jumbo loans, also went up, from at least 10 percent down to 15 percent down, according to the Wells Fargo document. A nonconforming loan is any loan greater than $417,000 for a single-family residence.
Houser said the Wells Fargo housing market rankings are based on home values.
“It isn’t news to anybody that sales prices of homes in Central Oregon aren’t what they were, so if you have sales prices that are less than or are declining, it’s a soft market,” said Houser.
Deschutes County home prices depreciated an average of 2.84 percent in 2007, according to a recent report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Houser said that not all housing in Bend is in decline, saying that some “micro-neighborhoods” are increasing in value or remaining static. In short, from a customer’s point of view, Houser said being in a buyer’s market is good news.
“Basically, the opportunity is ripe,” said Houser. “For a borrower, it’s just a great time. Values are great and interest rates have remained low, which usually don’t happen at the same time.”
The other West Coast markets labeled as soft are Jackson County, where Medford and Ashland are located; Washington’s Pierce County, which is home to Tacoma; and San Luis Obispo County in Central California.
There were no distressed or severely distressed markets listed in Oregon and Washington. All other counties in the two Northwest states were ranked as normal markets.
Worse off are markets ranked as distressed and severely distressed in California and Nevada. Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Diego counties were ranked severely distressed, along with Nevada’s Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, meaning home buyers seeking a nonconforming loan will have to put down at least 25 percent of the home value’s for a down payment. Similar restrictions apply for conforming loans in distressed and severely distressed markets.
This is what is just IRONICALLY HILARIOUS about attempts to prop up this market. PRIVATE FOR-PROFIT BANKS are doing all in their power to mitigate losses due to BAD IDEAS initiated during the bubble. Their natural inclination is to STOP LOSING MONEY by throttling back their bubble practices. Our governments inclination is to do the exact opposite. This should tell you what is going to happen to our government & BY EXTENSION, us over the next few years. Our government is bankrupting us so that FOR PROFIT institutions will be bailed out.
And of course, I can't let a post get by without putting Renaissance on the front page (as I recall, didn't some local blogger actually predict this last OCTOBER?):
Bend subdivision faces foreclosure
Renaissance Ridge owner says he plans to refinance with local lender By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin Published: March 20. 2008 4:00AM PST
Renaissance Ridge, a partially-developed, 210-lot subdivision in southwest Bend might be headed for foreclosure, according to documents filed with the Deschutes County Clerk’s office, but developer Randy Sebastian said he’s working hard to prevent it.
The number of homes going into foreclosure continues to rise in Deschutes County, and Renaissance Ridge would be among the largest casualties to date of the local real estate downturn.
The default notices filed March 7 against Aspen Landing, LLC, a holding company for the subdivision’s developer, Renaissance Homes, say Cleveland-based KeyBank is owed approximately $13.1 million plus interest by Aspen Landing. The Renaissance Ridge subdivision property owned by Aspen Landing is to be put up for auction July 25 in lieu of payment.
Sebastian, the owner of Renaissance Homes, said he is committed to the development located off of Brookswood Boulevard and plans to refinance it with a local lender within 60 days. The Portland resident, who was in Bend on Wednesday for the opening of his company’s design center at 55 N.W. Wall St., said he is not walking way from the development; rather, KeyBank is getting out of the housing market.
“It’s not a Bend issue, not a Renaissance Homes issue; it’s a lender that wants out of the builder/developer market, and they don’t want to extend their loans,” said Sebastian. “I’ve got my life savings out there.”
In a statement sent to The Bulletin by KeyBank and attributed to Roberta Fuhr, a senior vice president and manager of the Homebuilder Group, the bank confirmed it has initiated foreclosure proceedings on Renaissance Ridge in accordance with Oregon law, adding: “This is an unfortunate situation for all involved. It is never a lender’s preference to foreclose in order to enforce its creditor rights.”
The statement also said that although KeyBank has discontinued lending to builders outside of the 13 states in which it has branches, it will continue to originate loans for home builders in Oregon and other states within its branch banking market.
Sixty-four homes in the subdivision have been built or are under construction. Deschutes County land records — in which the subdivision is legally recorded as Aspen Rim — show that 36 homes have been purchased.
Homes in the development currently range from $369,000 to $590,000. The rest of the development has been subdivided, paved with streets and strung with utilities, but the individual lots are unimproved.
The development has dangled some incentives for prospective home buyers in recent months, including offers to buy down interest rates on home buyers’ loans for up to $14,000, and in February 2007, offering a free Mercedes Smart Car.
It also shaved prices on its homes in February by 11 percent to 20 percent, according to The Bulletin’s archives.
Renaissance Ridge homeowner Bill Ormsby, a Southern California retiree who has lived in the development for a year, said he has wondered about the profusion of empty lots in the development but said he feels confident he and his wife won’t be leaving.
“We’re gonna stay put,” said Ormsby. “It shouldn’t affect us too much.”
Renaissance Homes is also developing a 60-home subdivision near Shevlin Park and a 30-unit townhome development in Bend’s NorthWest Crossing. Sebastian said he has sold units in each of his three Bend developments within the past week and that activity is “still strong.”
“There are some positive things happening,” Sebastian said. “We’re not leaving Bend.”
Not the first
Renaissance Ridge is not the first subdivision in Bend to receive a notice of default, a legal device used to notify potential creditors that an entity is behind in the payment of a loan.
In May 2007, Umpqua Bank filed a notice of default on a 38-acre plot of land approved for 265 homes in northeast Bend then owned by Proterra Development Ventures, according to The Bulletin’s archives. The bank sold the land in October 2007 for $10 million to the Edge Development Group, which is in the process of developing a subdivision on the property — titled Mirada — with homes ranging from $189,900 to $249,000.
A notice of default is not a guarantee of foreclosure, said Tom Greene, the president of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors. Greene said the vast majority of defaults are remedied before foreclosure proceedings — usually held six months after a notice of default — ever begin.
“Under Oregon law, the occupant of a home has up until five days before (a property) goes to court to make a deal with the bank, to sell to someone else or buy it (outright),” Greene said.
Greene added that should Renaissance Ridge go to foreclosure, homeowners in the subdivision would be legally unaffected.
Softening market
Home sales in the region slowed down during the past couple months, compared with last year.
Combined single-family home sales in Bend, Redmond and Sisters dropped from 470 in the first two months of 2007 to 263 in the first two months of 2008, according to data provided by the Central Oregon Association of Realtors, and housing supplies in those three cities remain at 11, 12 and seven months, respectively, according to the association.
In addition, through March 17, Deschutes County has recorded 265 notices of default, according to county records, which is an increase from the 75 notices recorded in the same period last year. For all of 2007, the county recorded 591 properties that had entered the earliest stages of foreclosure.
Market fears
Elsewhere in Bend, Buena Vista Custom Homes has rented 18 of the 29 homes in its Forum Meadows development near St. Charles Bend since efforts to sell the homes in mid-December at auction failed to produce a single sale, said Mike Higgins, a spokesman for the Lake Oswego-based builder.
“It was done in a loss position, but it was better than the alternative,” Higgins said. “If we can’t sell them, we’ve got to do something. We looked to auction the homes, but it didn’t work. Builders right now are just trying to make the mess go away.”
Homebuyers and builders have moved from overconfidence to fear of a sluggish market that won’t recover, said Peter Storton, the owner and broker of RE/MAX Town & Country Realty in Sisters.
“The next 12 to 18 months will be a reverse of what we have seen,” Storton said. “We have to hang on to the customers that we have and convince people that it’s a good time to buy.”
Greene wondered if all the recent housing turmoil is ultimately a good thing for homebuyers. He said he hates to see people get into financial trouble, but “land prices in Deschutes County got so high, and this is one of those steps in this correction,” said Greene. “It’s like the stock market; that’s basically what’s happening here.”
What is HILARIOUS is that Sebastian, Storton, and every other Central Oregon RE wanker greases up their MAN-TWAT for the RE-f--kfest every time they even see a reporter.
And of course, hardly a mention that Foreclosures are UP 253% Year Over Year In Deschutes County. Nope, We Are Bend. We Are Different, We Are Special. Sheesh.And someone wanted me to post a Sweet-Ass piece of Marketing Goodness about the Plaza:
Anonymous mailer regarding fantastic Plaza condos
(S)he said they received this postcard anonymously, not a customer or friend of Breeze & Co. THAT is pretty damned desperate.
And I'll say again that Breeze is merely 49% responsible for this abomination. Her LENDER is 51%, and that is the party that is going DOWN. And in fact has already gone down. The proliferation of this midset will spawn what is probably the most profound shift in thinking with respect to Middle American finances EVER. From an anonymous comment:
Anonymous said...
Today there is no incentive re-pay your debts. Worse case scenario is you won't be able to obtain more credit.
>>
I have a sister near LA, who has been declaring bankruptcy every 7, for the past 40 years, and shes still living the life.
She gets a new house every few years, contract purchase never pays a single payment, or down, gets a new car every year, drives off the lot with nothing down, always stated-income, her husband is a contractor,
About every 3 years they evict her, and about every other year they repo the new car, and she applys for credit cards everywhere she goes, I once ran her SSN for her back when it was legal, and she came back with a dozen aliases,
She has been doing this for 30+ years, ...
Her children, her husband, they do it to. One time I asked her about it, and she said "For what I paid in taxes, they owe me", I thought that funny as she never had a job in her life.
Most of her friends live this way, why should she work, car dealers want to move cars, nobody loses on a repo, nobody loses on a non-paid card, nobody loses on a home repo,
They never even look, most people are just too happy to sell the house, or get the car off the lot.
My sister learned when she was young, that she could enjoy the best things in life for free, without working, and the best part is she's now in her 50's and going strong, even with the new bankruptcy law, shes' still driving new cars, got fuel in the tank, and lives in a new house.
Oh, and she even collects welfare, food stamps, medical-aid for the whole family, her husband works under the table his whole life, there's never been taxes filed, they don't make money, ...
Most of her friends do the same,
Here's the point, and it may not be now, but my guess is more than 10% of Americans live this way in cali, and they're now in Bend, living this way, something has to give,
I have long predicted a return of debtors prison, and some states have done it, but we all pay, and easy-money credit, while it keeps our way-of-life running, simply can't keep running this way, eventually the party will end.March 21, 2008 4:09 PM
THIS will become the economic status of MILLIONS of Americans. And if our government remains true to form, there wll be yet another overhaul of the Bankruptcy System in this country.
It will be reduced to Bad Check status.
Is it bad? Well, it's more of a blemish on your record than a permanent black mark. They will start expunging bankruptcies & other financial black marks from peoples credit records en masse. They will have to. FICO scores will be rejiggered. Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion will, at GOVERNMENT MANDATE, start to "lose" negative financial events on our credit records.
GUARANTEED.
The only consequences for default now are irritating phone calls:
Duncan McGeary said...I had a bit of a epiphany when I was behind on my credit card debts. Years ago....
If I didn't answer the phone, and let it go to the answering machine, there wasn't a whole more they could do to you....(Addendum... as Dunc states in the comments, HE DID PAY OFF THESE CARDS!)
And to date, this harassment has been manageable. Not since the Great Depression will so many people be in dire financial STRAITS (yeah, I said "straits"!). They will have to go beyond this to somehow avert the fact that vast swaths of the consuming US public will be UNABLE to make large-scale, credit based purchases (ie HOMES, CARS, APPLIANCES) until our credit system is almost totally abolished.
That means all FICO ills forgiven, credit reporting companies MUST starting expunging black marks SOONER that 10 years.
The responsible will be PUNISHED, the irresponsible will be REWARDED.
Bubble Behavior Rewarded Yet Again.We are going down the roads the Japs did for the past near 20 years,Prop Up The System At All Costs. What happened to them?
I say again, that Rent & Invest The Diff is the Best Idea EVER, especially in Bend:
Ratio of OFHEO house price index to personal consumption expenditures on rent
What was probably the Most Important Story of the week, at least according to our fearless leaders was this:
High Desert population: Coming or going?Moving cos. see more departures than arrivals this year
By Deanne Goodman, KTVZ.COM
Census numbers from July 2007, released Thursday, estimate Deschutes County's population at just over 154,000, having grown by almost 34 percent since 2000.
But these days, moving companies are seeing more people leave the area than come.
"We did probably about 12 moves out last month, going to different states and maybe saw five or six come in at the most," said Jason Taroli, a sales manager at Prestige Storage and Moving.
U-Haul also reports more trucks leaving than coming into the area. In 2007, they helped 4.1 percent more families move to Bend than leave. But since January of this year, U-Haul has helped 19.8 percent more families move out of Bend.
Employees at Prestige Moving and Storage blame the cooling real estate market and economy.
"Even last summer was not as busy as we were used to being," Taroli said. "We were still fairly busy but compared to past summers, when we were crazy busy, last summer we were comfortable busy."
But one company says it stays busy whether people move into the area or leave.
"It's expensive to move, and a lot of time people have it in their mind, they'll store their stuff until they can come back and get it. Either way, it works out for us," said Robert Hurzeler, a manager at Secure Storage.
Hurzeler says regardless of the economy, his units stay 100 percent full. Thursday morning, two became vacant and then he got a call a family in Arizona. They reserved the two units for their move to Deschutes County.
"This is a beautiful place, and I think it's going to continue to grow because a lot of people want to live here," Hurzeler added.
If the population keeps growing at the rate it has the past seven years, Deschutes County will pass the 200,000 mark in 2013.
This is The End. We have THOUSANDS of spec homes & empty lots already available. This doesn't even come close to counting the onslaught of foreclosure-bound properties which will be setting the New Low Comps around here. It's going to be a nightmare.
And maybe not surprisingly, almost everyone is relying on the old It's Beautiful In Central Oregon So People Will Forever Want To Move Here.
This reminds me of when I went to The Bahamas many years ago. I went out in "the countryside" of this paradise, only to find hundreds of overgrown concrete foundations that had been poured. They were everywhere. Paradise. But also Desolate Poverty. Bend 2012.
Finally, there is the Cruel, Cruel Irony of Tuscany Buttplugs. This was posted over on BendBB yesterday:
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject:
Paul-doh! wrote: EVIL, WHINY Paul-doh!
If she goes forward, she WILL be a builder. ONCE. Tuscany Idiots will be her first, last, and only HURRAH. She should SAVE HER MONEY, and be a librarian.
Interesting that she just put her personal residence on the MLS:http://tinyurl.com/32lft9
She's trying to raise $1.8MM in Tuscany Pines Venture Capital by selling the old McMansion. As I said... she will be a builder... ONCE.
And such is the destiny of So Many around here. They will lose everything, home, business, cars, boats, everything. All for want of a bubble fortune.
And speaking of bubbles, there's been a bit of a bubble in the comments section, last weeks count going over 600. Is it due to my brilliant writing? Ummm, almost certainly not. Personally I think there are 4 reasons for the apparent popularity of this blog:
First & foremost, it should speak to some in our local media that people around here are tired of bulls--t. They want the straight dope on what the f--k is going on. Our current media sellouts are still butt-f--king their buddies in the RE industry, and when a reporter even THINKS about not towing the line, they are BLOWN OUT THE HATCH. People are sick of this.
Spurting love juice a'comes Mike Hollern
Spreading STD's and a'caller'n
On Costa, cuz he's a'swaller'n
Bulletin standards, they are a'faller'n
Second, the housing bust is not just a national story, it's coming into the Cent OR area FINALLY, after our requisite 18-24 month lag time. We are just starting to see the deleterious effects of this thing. And in a place that has triple to quadruple the exposure to housing, it is virtually impossible to ignore, and pretty naturally people thirst for whatever straight shooting, unvarnished news they can get on the subject.
Third, as an illustration, my wife's initial reaction to blogging, sight unseen, was "that's just a bunch of biased, personal ranters with their own agenda, just like The Bulletin!". Then she began to read the comments on this blog. And read. And read. And read. And her initial comment was, "Wow, there people are posting TONS of hard facts, that are NOT BEING REPORTED ANYWHERE." Contrary to popular delusion, and my own initial preconceptions, bloggers are starting to post headlines before the mass media. I actually look to local Bend blogs now, before the online mass media bulls--t of the Bulletin or KTVZ, for "real news".
Look at Fishers Dismissal from The Bulletin; I'm not sure if he actually called OPB, but the only other conceivable source for this story was either this blog or BendBB. There is of course chaff with the wheat, but the amount & quality of the wheat is pretty f--king amazing. Especially since no one here is in it for the money.
Finally, this blogging stuff is pretty fun! I mean where else can you post your own take on things, whether on target (or topic) or not, and KNOW it's going to be aired? Everywhere else, including the blogs of mass media around here, as well as RE blogs that shall remain nameless, have some sort of moderation, and that means DISCRIMINATION no matter how you slice it. And it almost always ends up egregiously in error.
Many moons ago "Becky Breeze" posted to a local board, "her" comment was removed as a fake (which is why I can provide no link to it), but then was reinstated once sufficient verification procedures were satisfied by the moderator.
I mean, sorry, but that's just stupid. Neither before nor after was "her" identification EVER proven.
Give people an open, brawling, dog-eat-dog forum without oversight or moderation... and good things will come. Well, at least that's my opinion.
I'll end with this piece on The Great Deleveraging, something that will be the defining trend of Our Time:
The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup warns Avoid leveraged companies, countries and consumers, bank's strategists say
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch Last update: 9:51 p.m. EDT March 19, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup Inc. strategists warned on Wednesday.
As markets and economies de-leverage across the globe, investors should avoid companies and countries that have grown to rely too much on borrowed money, they said.
That means favoring public-equity markets over hedge funds, private-equity and real estate, while leaning toward emerging market countries and away from developed nations like the U.S., the bank's global equity strategy team advised.
Within equity markets, the financial-services should be avoided because it's still over-leveraged, while other companies have stronger balance sheets, the strategists said.
"Steady growth, low inflation and rock-bottom interest rates encouraged economic and financial participants across the world economy to gear up over the past few years," Robert Buckland and his colleagues on Citi's global strategy team wrote in a note to clients. "Easy money encouraged many to buy a bigger house, a bigger car or a bigger speculative position."
"But now, any behavior that relied upon continued access to easy money is being dramatically reassessed," they added. "Leveraged banks must lend less, leveraged consumers must consume less, leveraged companies must acquire or invest less, and leveraged speculators must speculate less."
Financial-services companies are the most vulnerable to this reduction of borrowed money across the globe, they said.
During the last credit crisis in 1998, European banks were leveraged 26 to 1. In the early part of this decade, leverage grew to 32 to 1. Now the sector is geared 40 to 1 on average, according to Citi's European bank research team.
"The banks have a long way to go," the strategists said. "We would continue to avoid the sector while they are de-leveraging."
Other companies are in much better shape, having rebuilt cash from strong earnings since 2003. Emerging market companies have developed particularly strong balance sheets, having learnt hard lessons from the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.
However, even though some companies may not have much debt themselves, they may be exposed to over-leveraged customers or highly leveraged investors, Citigroup warned.
Automakers, home builders and electronics retailers benefited as customers borrowed money cheaply in recent years to buy cars, houses and flat-screen TVs. That attractive financing is now being withdrawn.
"There will be plenty of companies that have strong balance sheets, so may not be most immediately vulnerable to the credit crunch," Citi said. "But they may find that their leveraged customers are vulnerable."
The difference, or spread, between interest rates on investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds has jumped in recent months, even though most companies aren't very leveraged.
This widening may be caused by leveraged investors such as hedge funds having to sell good quality assets to meet margin calls, or requests for more cash or collateral.
"It is the leverage of the investors who hold these bonds that is now being brutally exposed," Matt King, a Citigroup credit strategist, said.
"We are now confronted by a broad bloodbath in the credit markets," Citigroup said. " The most leveraged paper is falling in value because it is leveraged, and now the least leveraged paper is also falling in value because it is owned by leveraged investors."
Investors should also avoid hedge funds themselves, along with private equity, Citi added. Both types of investment rely at least partly on borrowed money to generate returns.
"Private equity returns have been especially strong. Without leverage it will be much harder to meet excessive investor expectations [most surveys suggest 20% annual returns are expected from the asset class]," Citi warned. "Similarly, many hedge funds have generated healthy uncorrelated returns by adopting cautious underlying strategies, but applying significant leverage. Again, that looks unsustainable in the current environment."
Leveraged economies, like the U.S., should also be avoided, in favor of emerging market countries, which have reduced borrowing, the bank advised.
With less capital sloshing around the world, and the dollar falling, the U.S. may have to compete more to finance its deficits.
"The U.S. shows up as the world's greatest consumer of external capital," Citi noted. So it "has the most to lose as this capital becomes less freely available."
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Wanna know where the Next Big Thing is? It's here, managing The Big Unwind, the greatest De-Leveraging of all time. Some will make BILLIONS in "managing" this debacle for the victims. Or should I say "victims".
The unfortunate ultimate result is that the US will become The Worlds Deadbeats.
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Slow week
» Hack BendApologies for the slow week around here; I've had some other stuff come up that have, shall we say, taken a certain amount of precedence for my attention elsewhere. But, the week's over, I have next week off for spring break with the kids, and it's time to relax. The blogging should pick up.
As always, if you have anything you want to share, drop me a line.
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Bend CC Spends $2.5M w/NO COMMENT
» Juniper Ridge InfoI just returned from the Bend City Council meeting. They all voted for the settlement with Juniper Ridge Partners, in an amount over $2.5 million dollars and giving JRP the right to purchase the first 50 acres of Juniper Ridge land, with absolutely no public comment or questioning or anything.
$2.5+ million dollars from Bend taxpayers without even a cursory debate. Whatever debate was held was in secret, in Executive Session. Not to be heard be the people actually paying this bill.
This is not only disgusting, but also may be illegal. The State Ethics Commission will weigh in on this.
How can you call yourself a responsible representative of the citizen's of Bend and sign off on this without any debate.
Absolutely no public debate.
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Deschutes County's Open Communications
» Ad HOC : Words + IdeasAnna Johnson, Deschutes County's Public Communications Coordinator, really does a bang-up job of keeping a flow of valuable information running to our local media. I know this because for several months now, I've been on the email list she uses to send announcements and news releases to the media. Now she's opening this list up to any interested county residents, which I think is a super cool example of government openness that I wish other parts of our country's government would follow. Read below and be the first to know. -hoc
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In an effort to continue to increase communication with citizens of Deschutes County, residents are able to receive County news notices at the same time local media receives them.
If you are interested in receiving direct emails about County happenings, please send an email including the following information to the name and email address listed below:
1. Name
2. Email address to receive notices
Anna Johnson
Public Communications Coordinator
annaj@deschutes.org
330-4640
County resident email addresses will be added to a group list that will
regularly receive the notices and WILL NOT be sold to any other entity.
Addresses will be used for the sole purpose of communication between the
County and it's residents. Once received, addresses become public
property and are subject to public record requests.
For more information about the frequency and types of news notices that
may be sent, please call 330-4640.
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7:00
100th Post! Just In Time For The Implosion Of Our Financial System! YEAH!
» Bend Bubble 2600+ 400+ 200+ comments.. you know what to do... triple down
Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson...
Son: "Hey Dad, what's that scary noise?"
Dad: "Oh, that's nothing Son. That's just the sound of America's Collapsing Financial System."
Son: "It sounds like that earthquake in the Bering Sea that killed all those black Antarcticans in 2005."
Dad: "It was the Indian Ocean & Indonesians mainly, but this will be much, much worse than that. But, we had a good run"
Wow. Where to start? I guess we'll start with the Macro-Big Stuff, and work back to the Little Stuff.
Bear bailout sparks concern about other brokers Crisis of confidence hits ahead of results from Goldman, Morgan, Lehman
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - The emergency bailout of Bear Stearns Cos. dented confidence in other securities firms ahead of results next week from some of Wall Street's giants including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers, analysts said on Friday.
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. was forced to borrow money for 28 days from the Federal Reserve, with help from J.P. Morgan Chase JPMorgan Chase & Co, after clients and counterparties deserted the 85-year-old firm.
Triggering a sell-off throughout the financial sector, Bear shares slumped 47% to $30, their biggest one-day drop in at least two decades.
Bear said the rescue consists of getting short-term financing from the Fed, through J.P. Morgan, after its liquidity "deteriorated significantly" during the past 24 hours.
Bear said the financial support is a bridge to a more permanent solution. Several analysts predicted the firm will likely be acquired quickly by a stronger bank or broker to stop its troubles triggering broader problems in the financial system.
"The financial system supervisors are attempting to prevent this company's problems and the perception of problems from rippling through the system to other financial players," David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, wrote in a note to investors. "Given Bear Stearns' huge impact in the mortgage, derivatives and funding markets, we sense that a salvation acquisition is the most likely possibility."
Only days earlier, Bear Chief Executive Alan Schwartz reassured investors that the broker had no liquidity problems and was meeting demands for cash. But concerns grew in the market anyway and on Thursday counterparties withdrew crucial financial support and the firm was hit by a wave of client withdrawals. That pushed the firm into the arms of the Fed.
"If a firm as large and liquid as Bear can be taken down on what appears to us as exaggerated claims about liquidity and counterparty risk which then snow-ball into a market reality as investors, counterparties and lenders shoot first and ask questions later, then what's to stop the same thing happening to other firms facing similar issues," Michael Hecht, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
First-quarter earnings per share for these four firms will likely drop by more than half versus a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by FactSet.
Bear's crisis is the latest sign that the U.S. financial system is cracking under the weight of a global credit crunch that was sparked by last year's subprime mortgage meltdown. As lenders have become more wary of mortgage securities used to back loans, they've pulled back, sparking widespread de-leveraging.
Brokerage firms get the money they need by borrowing it in the market, while big banks like J.P. Morgan get a big chunk of their funding from customers who deposit cash in bank accounts.
That means brokerage firms are more vulnerable to swings of risk appetite and aversion in capital markets. As the credit crunch has spread, creditors have become less willing to lend to these firms, increasing their borrowing costs.
"Financial markets are pretty frozen up. It's a stunner," said Hal Ritch, co-chief executive of investment bank Sagent Advisors and a former Citigroup Inc. banker. "There was so much liquidity just a few months ago, but now there's so little. There's a lot of fear out there."
As leverage, or borrowing, in the financial system is wound down, some market participants arehaving to sell assets to meet their obligations. That's causing prices to fall further.
Falling prices is a problem for brokerage firms because they still hold illiquid assets and will probably have to record the lower market value of these exposures as part of their first-quarter results.
Brokerage firms have already taken billions of dollars in such write-downs, but continuing turmoil in credit markets may mean a few more quarters of valuation hits.
"The problem that Bear Stearns and other financials face is a great unwind of leverage," Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., wrote in a note to investors on Friday. "When a company that is leveraged over 30-to-1 faces a crisis of liquidity and confidence of creditworthiness, that company will be unable to leverage its collateral and its leverage will be forced down to 1-to-1."
The global financial-services sector may end up writing down the fair value of subprime exposures by $285 billion, mainly from residential mortgage-backed securities and more complex vehicles known as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), Standard & Poor's estimated on Thursday.
The rating agency gave investors hope when it said the end of such write-downs was in sight. However, it also gave an ominous warning.
The agency said that the broader credit crunch has dented the market prices of many other types of securities in recent weeks. If this continues, banks and brokers could be hit by another round of write-downs, S&P said.
"A major re-pricing of credit risk is taking place across the debt markets," S&P wrote. "If the wider spreads hold to the end of the first quarter or half of this year, financial institutions will suffer further market value write-downs of a broad range of exposures, including leveraged loans."
The notable sections are highlighted.
THIS is how close Armaggedon is. 24 HOURS.
24 hours before Bear Stearns went completely BROKE (don't believe anything else), the CEO made statements that ALL IS WELL; Zero liquidity problems, Don't Worry, We Are Fine.
Uh huh. Bear Stearns will be sold later this week, if not before I finish this post.
How unusual is this? Well, let's see. From Bloomberg:
Fed Invokes Little-Used Authority to Aid Bear StearnsBy Scott Lanman
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke invoked a law last used four decades ago to keep Bear Stearns Cos. from collapsing after the securities firm sought emergency funding from the central bank.
The loan to Bear Stearns required a vote today by the Fed's Board of Governors because the company isn't a bank, Fed staff officials said. The central bank is taking on the credit risk from Bear Stearns collateral, lending the funds through JPMorgan Chase & Co. because it's operationally simpler to accomplish than a direct loan, the staff said on condition of anonymity.
Bernanke took advantage of little-used parts of Fed law, added in the 1930s and last utilized in the 1960s, that allow it to lend to corporations and private partnerships with a special board vote. The Fed chief probably sought to stave off a deeper blow to the financial system from a Bear Stearns collapse, former Fed researcher Keith Hembre said.
``The Fed really doesn't have any obligation to help a non- bank aside from its role or responsibility to keep the financial markets functioning,'' said Hembre, who helps oversee $107 billion as chief economist at FAF Advisors Inc. in Minneapolis. ``They made a judgment, probably an accurate one, that they're not going to function very well if you've got a full-blown crisis with a major Wall Street firm.''
Unanimous Vote
The Fed said in a statement that it will ``continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system,'' repeating reassurances the central bank has made often since credit strains arrived in August. The statement said the Fed Board unanimously approved the arrangement with JPMorgan and Bear Stearns.
The Fed Board, which met today at 9:15 a.m. Washington time, typically delegates such discount-window lending authority to its regional reserve banks when it comes to loans to banks.
``There's a clear realization among people both in the official sector and the financial markets that some of the institutions we have built over the last 100 years are not well adapted to the modern 21st century financial system,'' said former New York Fed research director Stephen Cecchetti. ``A lot of what we've been seeing have been creative innovations to deal with problems that the institutions were not built to handle.''
The senior staffers declined to describe how large the loan to Bear Stearns is, and whether a private-sector bailout was attempted first before the Fed extended credit through JPMorgan. The staff officials said the Fed used its authorization under the law several times in the 1960s though didn't immediately have further details.
Paulson's Support
Such votes require approval from five Fed governors. The seven-member Fed board currently has two vacancies, and one governor, Randall Kroszner, is serving past the Jan. 31 expiration of his term.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in a separate statement, said ``there are challenges in our financial markets, and we continue to address them.'' Treasury is ``working closely'' with the Fed and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
``I appreciate the leadership of the Federal Reserve in enhancing the stability and orderliness of our markets,'' Paulson said. ``Our financial system is flexible and resilient and I am confident that the efforts of regulators and market participants will minimize disruption to the system.''
Robert Rubin, the former Treasury secretary who is now chairman of Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee, said at a conference today that the ``risks have reached a point that the right thing is to act and act in a very serious way.''
47% Plunge
Bear Stearns shares plummeted a record 47 percent on news of the bailout. The announcement, coupled with a report showing U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in February, led traders to place 56 percent odds that Fed policy makers will lower their benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point at their March 18 meeting, to 2 percent.
Yesterday, the odds of such a move were 0 percent.
A reduction of that size would be unprecedented since the overnight lending rate became the Fed's main policy tool around 1990, trumping the Jan. 22 emergency cut of 0.75 percentage point.
It's the first time since the financial turmoil intensified in August that Bernanke, 54, has publicly announced Fed assistance to a specific company instead of measures open to broader sets of banks or other financial institutions.
Most recently, the Fed on March 11 announced plans to lend $200 billion in Treasuries to primary dealers in exchange for debt that includes mortgage-backed securities. Last week, the Fed increased funds available through its so-called Term Auction Facility, set up in December to lend funds to banks in exchange for a wide variety of collateral, including mortgage debt.
`All the Problems'
``What they're doing now is going to help, but I don't know that it will solve all the problems out there,'' said Thomas Garcia, managing director of Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which oversees $50 billion.
Bear Stearns's liquidity problem ``definitely gives some doubt as to whether other firms are releasing all available information, and whether this credit crunch is really over,'' Garcia said.
Bear Stearns isn't alone among financial institutions stung by the credit squeeze to be bailed out. The U.K. government was forced to nationalize Northern Rock Plc last month after the first run on a British bank in more than a century and take on 100 billion pounds ($203 billion) in liabilities. Two German banks have also received emergency aid.
While U.S. authorities have been faster than their U.K. counterparts in announcing the rescue package for Bear Stearns, former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter says that doesn't make their course of action was the correct one.
``This creates the same moral hazard issues that we saw with Northern Rock,'' said Buiter, now a professor at the London School of Economics. ``This bank is being given access to public money, and we don't know what the terms are.''
I think it's clear the path we are on. With gold at $1,000/oz, it seems to be a thesis whose time has come. I wrote a bit about how I thought this would unfold in a post wayyyy back when:
Ah yes, good old Zimbabwe. A place where you look to see how disastrous insular governmental corruption can decimate an economy. See any parallels to Bend?- Robert Mugabe = Bend City Council
- Mugabe's Supposed Economic Sabotage = Let's Hire A PR Marketing Firm Cuz We F'd Up Juniper Ridge
- 120,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars = Bend Median Home Price
- Economic Meltdown & Refugees = Bends Future
I took some heat for even speaking about hyperinflation in a post last July. Well, let's say some people questioned the idea:
IHTBYB,
Could you please explain exactly what might trigger your hyper-inflation model? What bellwether's might there be?
The last serious inflation the US saw was late 70's.
While we're experiencing inflation right now, my feeling is that its because the US dollar is dropping like a rock. That said for most people fixing that simple problem is just a point of buying Euro's.
What in particular to you think will cause hyper-inflation? Your example in Germany happened after a failed war.Hmmm... failed war? Nope, none in sight.
No, what we have is failed monetary restraint & out of control consumerism & credit issuance.
Coincidentally, I found an article mentioning the "Z" word:
March 11, 2008, 11:55 pm The Fed May Run Low on Unconventional AmmoBack in 2003, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 1%, the world worried that the Fed was running out of ammunition and would soon have to turn to unconventional tools.
Now, in 2008, it’s worth asking if the Fed could run out of unconventional ammunition. Tuesday’s offer to lend $200 billion of its Treasury holdings to primary dealers in return for mortgage-backed securities both guaranteed by the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and not (private-label MBS) means it will have eventually sold or pledged half of its Treasurys, limiting how many more of these tricks it can pull off.
Since August the Fed has announced a series of steps designed to target those pockets of the financial markets facing the most stress rather than rely solely on the blunt instrument of lower short-term interest rates. These steps have primarily involved taking onto its balance sheet something a bit risky — a loan to a bank or a securities dealer, collateralized with paper ranging from corporate loans to private-label mortgage backed securities (i.e. MBS not backed by the federally sponsored agencies Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac).Left alone, these operations would result in an increase in cash supplied to the banks, boosting excess reserves and pushing down the federal-funds rate. Since the Fed does not want that to happen, it “sterilizes” the operation by getting rid of an equivalent amount of something else on its balance sheet. That something is usually Treasurys. Last December, it announced the creation of the term auction facility under which it auctions off loans to banks against a wide variety of collateral. To keep its balance sheet constant, it decided to let a roughly equivalent amount of its Treasurys mature. Since then, its Treasury portfolio has fallen from $779 billion to $713 billion.
Last Friday, it announced two additional steps: It would expand the size of the Term Auction Facility loans to a total of $100 billion from $60 billion (and the original $40 billion) and lend up to $100 billion to primary dealers in lengthened, 28-day repo operations. To sterilize those operations, Wrightson Associates estimates the Fed will have to shed $100 billion in Treasurys. Friday, it sold $10 billion of Treasury bills, its first outright sale since 1991. It will have to sell or redeem a lot more to keep its balance sheet from ballooning. One of the beauties of the securities lending facility is that it is self-sterilizing: The addition of MBS to its balance sheet is exactly offset by the loan of Treasurys.From the point of view of normalizing market conditions, it makes sense to replace Treasurys with other stuff because the federal government is having no trouble borrowing right now. Quite the contrary: The flight to safety has driven Treasury yields to unnaturally low levels. In the securities-lending (or repo) market, someone with Treasurys to offer as collateral can borrow at a rock-bottom interest rate. But it does raise the prospect that with a few more similar-sized steps, the Fed will have run out of Treasurys to sell or pledge.
As Michael Feroli of J.P. Morgan Chase notes: “in a short period of time the Fed could have up to $400 billion of mortgage assets on its balance sheet.” Of course, that would still leave it with $400 billion in other assets to sell or pledge. And the Fed doesn’t have to simply sell Treasurys: It can allow some of its $52 billion in shorter-term repo loans to dealers to expire. It could conduct reverse repos, i.e. start borrowing from primary dealers instead of lending to them (although that would tie up Treasurys as collateral for the reverse repos). Fed officials say they have many other ways of increasing their lending capacity though they were not specific.
And, as David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley notes: “If the situation were to become sufficiently dire, the Fed has unlimited power to monetize the economy’s debt … . They could finance the entire $10 trillion US mortgage market — and then some — via some combination of outright purchases (of the GSE-backed securities) and repo transactions (for the private debt).” Of course, that would quickly send the federal-funds rate to zero and, with a lag, inflation to the moon. Hello, Zimbabwe (inflation: 100,500%).
There doesn’t seem much risk of that now judging from the Fed’s response to Wall Street dealer suggestions that the Fed purchase GSE MBS and bonds. The Fed has the clear legal authority to do so, unlike with private-label MBS, and indeed held some agency debt as recently as 2003. But Fed staffers told reporters Tuesday that such purchases would inevitably influence the prices of such securities and they don’t want their operations distorting relative valuations. Another philosophical barrier is the Fed’s long standing efforts to strip the GSEs of their implied government guarantee, one reason it has let its holdings of GSE debt fall to zero. A more prosaic obstacle: the Fed’s operations are not well equipped to hold MBS with their unpredictable prepayment patterns.
For a similar reason, the Fed does not, at least for now, want to lengthen any of its lending operations to 90 days, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England regularly do and as dealers would like. The Fed, staffers say, would become the dominant influence on interest rates at that maturity and it would rather that be a market-determined rate.
Many key aspects of the latest plan remain unanswered, reflecting how quickly it was put together. Money market dealers want to know what kind of private label MBS they can pledge: jumbos? Subprime? Alt-A? (The Fed has nixed commercial MBS). They also want to know what haircuts the Fed will apply. Fed officials decline to be specific except to say they will seem conservative for ordinary times and liberal for tumultuous times. (One starting point may be the haircuts imposed on MBS collateral at the discount window: They range from 2% to 15% depending on the maturity and the availability of market pricing.) Those details will be worked out in coming weeks. – Greg Ip
This is from a WSJ blog entry. Sorry no link, it was a 1 day freebie :-)
But we are starting to hear even the most respected financial minds say how dire the situation really is. To wit, Buffett:
PAUL B. FARRELL Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb' Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength" wrote Warren Buffett. That was five years before the subprime-credit meltdown.
"We try to be alert to any sort of mega-catastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly appreciative about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." That warning was in Buffett's 2002 letter to Berkshire shareholders. He saw a future that many others chose to ignore. The Iraq war build-up was at a fever-pitch. The imagery of WMDs and a mushroom cloud fresh in his mind.
Also fresh on Buffett's mind: His acquisition of General Re four years earlier, about the time the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund almost killed the global monetary system.
How? This is crucial: LTCM nearly killed the system with a relatively small $5 billion trading loss. Peanuts compared with the hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime-credit write-offs now making Wall Street's big shots look like amateurs.
Buffett tried to sell off Gen Re's derivatives group. No buyers. Unwinding it was costly, but led to his warning that derivatives are a "financial weapon of mass destruction." That was 2002.
Derivatives bubble explodes five times bigger in five years
Wall Street didn't listen to Buffett. Derivatives grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion to $516 trillion by 2007. The new derivatives bubble was fueled by five key economic and political trends:- Sarbanes-Oxley increased corporate disclosures and government oversight
- Federal Reserve's cheap money policies created the subprime-housing boom
- War budgets burdened the U.S. Treasury and future entitlements programs
- Trade deficits with China and others destroyed the value of the U.S. dollar
- Oil and commodity rich nations demanding equity payments rather than debt
Data on the five-fold growth of derivatives to $516 trillion in five years comes from the most recent survey by the Bank of International Settlements, the world's clearinghouse for central banks in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS is like the cashier's window at a racetrack or casino, where you'd place a bet or cash in chips, except on a massive scale: BIS is where the U.S. settles trade imbalances with Saudi Arabia for all that oil we guzzle and gives China IOUs for the tainted drugs and lead-based toys we buy.
To grasp how significant this five-fold bubble increase is, let's put that $516 trillion in the context of some other domestic and international monetary data:- U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion
- U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion
- Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion
- U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion
- U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion
- World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion
- Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion
- Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion
- Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion
- BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion
- BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion
Also, keep in mind that while the $516 trillion "notional" value (maximum in case of a meltdown) of the deals is a good measure of the market's size, the 2007 BIS study notes that the $11 trillion "gross market values provides a more accurate measure of the scale of financial risk transfer taking place in derivatives markets."
Bubbles, domino effects and the 'bad 2%'
However, while that may be true as far as the parties to an individual deal, there are broader risks to the world's economies. Remember back in 1998 when LTCM's little $5 billion loss nearly brought down the world's banking system. That "domino effect" is now repeating many times over, straining the world's monetary, economic and political system as the subprime housing mess metastasizes, taking the U.S. stock market and the world economy down with it.
This cascading "domino effect" was brilliantly described in "The $300 Trillion Time Bomb: If Buffett can't figure out derivatives, can anybody?" published early last year in Portfolio magazine, a couple months before the subprime meltdown. Columnist Jesse Eisinger's $300 trillion figure came from an earlier study of the derivatives market as it was growing from $100 trillion to $516 trillion over five years. Eisinger concluded:
"There's nothing intrinsically scary about derivatives, except when the bad 2% blow up." Unfortunately, that "bad 2%" did blow up a few months afterwards, even as Bernanke and Paulson were assuring America that the subprime mess was "contained."
Bottom line: Little things leverage a heck of a big wallop. It only takes a little spark from a "bad 2% deal" to ignite this $516 trillion weapon of mass destruction. Think of this entire unregulated derivatives market like an unsecured, unpredictable nuclear bomb in a Pakistan stockpile. It's only a matter of time. World's newest and biggest 'black market' The fact is, derivatives have become the world's biggest "black market," exceeding the illicit traffic in stuff like arms, drugs, alcohol, gambling, cigarettes, stolen art and pirated movies. Why? Because like all black markets, derivatives are a perfect way of getting rich while avoiding taxes and government regulations. And in today's slowdown, plus a volatile global market, Wall Street knows derivatives remain a lucrative business.
Recently Pimco's bond fund king Bill Gross said "What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August." In short, not only Warren Buffett, but Bond King Bill Gross, our Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the rest of America's leaders can't "figure out" the world's $516 trillion derivatives.
Why? Gross says we are creating a new "shadow banking system." Derivatives are now not just risk management tools. As Gross and others see it, the real problem is that derivatives are now a new way of creating money outside the normal central bank liquidity rules. How? Because they're private contracts between two companies or institutions.
BIS is primarily a records-keeper, a toothless tiger that merely collects data giving a legitimacy and false sense of security to this chaotic "shadow banking system" that has become the world's biggest "black market."
That's crucial, folks. Why? Because central banks require reserves like stock brokers require margins, something backing up the transaction. Derivatives don't. They're not "real money." They're paper promises closer to "Monopoly" money than real U.S. dollars.
And it takes place outside normal business channels, out there in the "free market." That's the wonderful world of derivatives, and it's creating a massive bubble that could soon implode.
Comments? Yes, we want to hear your thoughts. Tell us what you think about derivatives: as "financial weapons of mass destruction;" as a "shadow banking system;" as a "black market;" as the next big bubble dangerously exposing us to that unpredictable "bad 2%."
Here's a guy who graduated from Paul-doh's Community College of Talking Down A Market With Talk Of Armageddon:
GLOBAL INVESTOR 'Doom and Gloom' has just begun Bearish newsletter editor finds little cheer in most assets By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch Last update: 10:51 p.m. EST March 7, 2008LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- "Dr. Doom" sure is living up to his name these days.
Speaking to a packed room of financial planners here on Friday, the famed money manager and newsletter editor Mark Faber literally brought down the house with talk of a worthless dollar, a helpless U.S. central bank and a dire situation in which investors have just a few avenues left to turn to. "We may now have a hostile environment for all asset classes, with the exception of some real estate and commodities," said the editor of The Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, pointing out that since 2002 all asset classes have been rising -- a phenomenon that hasn't been seen for 200 years.
"The current synchronized global economic boom and universal all-encompassing asset bubble will lead to a colossal bust," he said.
Financial markets, currently in the grips of a credit bubble that worsens by the day, will see a protracted period of high volatility, in which 20% movements either up or down become common and the chances of making a lot of money become very difficult, he said.
He heaps much of the blame for global troubles on years of expansionary U.S. monetary policy that had a flawed fixation on U.S. consumption rather than boosting capital infrastructure and spending. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are clearly backed into a corner now as they cannot tighten money policy without causing a collapse of the entire financial system, he said.
"Easy money and debt growth has had a diminishing aspect on U.S. economic growth -- 'zero hour' may have already arrived," Faber said, adding that he thinks the U.S. is in the throes of recession and has been there for the past four to five months.
Indeed gloomy nonfarm payroll data for February further routed U.S. financial markets Friday, convincing many that recession had arrived.
From bearish to deep in the woods
Faber was spouting his gloomy philosophy a year ago when in an interview with Time magazine he predicted all assets were in danger owing to easy monetary policy in the U.S. and elsewhere, with investors getting too used to constantly rising asset prices across the board. "I believe we're in the midst of the greatest asset bubble ever," said Faber in the January 2007 article.
Fast-forward to the present and you can't blame some of that "I told you so" from Faber.
Indeed, credit markets have been routed and financial markets have seesawed since late October, with some notable bubbles in Asia and elsewhere last year. And he said he's not seeing enough bears out there, with investors still too optimistic.
"Before October, everyone was bullish -- rushing into assets and out of cash. Then...over the last three to six months, people went to buy the rallies. Sentiment is not that bearish. The mood has stayed optimistic and asset markets are still vulnerable," he said.
Nowhere was he bleaker than when addressing the beaten-down dollar, another victim of Fed policy which he said has ensured cash returns below the rate of inflation. "In the long term, the dollar is a doomed currency. It will go to zero," he said, which produced some nervous laughter from the audience.
Bright spots in emerging markets, commodities
Where he does see some options for investors is in some corners of emerging markets, noting that he believes the Chinese yuan could double in value in the next five years or so, which will raise the value of many emerging Asian currencies at the same time.
The Asian property market is also favorable in the long run, given low levels of urbanization and low levels of mortgage debt. He said fears that a Chinese property bubble are on the horizon are overblown given that home prices have gone down as a percentage of gross domestic product and as a percentage of household income.
Among his other emerging Asian investment themes: real estate; health care, such as pharmaceuticals and hospital management; local brands, which could replace international brands; and commodities such as sugar and cotton. Tourism is another big theme that he likes for the Asian markets, including hotels, casinos and airports, along with financial services such as banks, insurances companies and brokers. Infrastructure is also a key theme, with "bottlenecks everywhere," he said.
He is also keen on Cambodia, which he describes as having a relatively open economy, with a regulatory framework and government commitment to attract foreign direct investment. He said the country's young population, strategic location, abundant natural resources and exceptional access to trade privileges make it an attractive investment locale for light industry and agricultural businesses.
With the world population growing, especially in emerging markets, arable farmland will become an increasingly pricey commodity. He highlights First Farms, a Danish company founded by a group of farmers whose land was bought up by developers; Ukraine-based Landkom International and Astarta; and Black Earth Farming, a Swedish-run company that invests in Russian farmland and has an initial public offering forthcoming.
Other commodities worth a look: sugar cane in Brazil, palm oil in Indonesia or vegetables in China.
Finally, I can't resist this Business Week piece, mainly because of the awesome last line:
Recession Time As the economy teeters between bad and worse, one question looms: What's the best course of action? Here's what can be done. And what can'tKevin Van Aeist
Wall Street got its hopes up on Mar. 11. Elated by a Federal Reserve move to stop the credit crunch, the U.S. stock market posted its biggest one-day gain in five years, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising more than 400 points. Look out, though. Fed officials are the first to acknowledge that their initiative attacks only one problem, the liquidity squeeze at big banks. It does nothing about the central risk to the U.S. economy: an unprecedented crash in home values that is sapping households' wealth and confidence while putting an enormous strain on the banking system.
How bad will this downturn get? No one can know because we've never experienced such a headlong slide in the housing market—and this comes at a time when its current value of $20 trillion accounts for the vast majority of most families' wealth. Right now most economists expect the U.S. to experience a mild, short recession in 2008. But there is at least a possibility of a steeper decline that the traditional recession remedies—interest-rate cuts here, deficit spending there—won't be able to handle.
What should be done? For policymakers in Washington—Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and congressional leaders—the sensible course is to insure against the small but scary possibility that things could go very wrong. The potential "insurance policies" are government actions that have a real cost but lessen the risk that a mild recession turns into something worse. The International Monetary Fund endorsed that approach on Mar. 12 as First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky urged policymakers globally to "think the unthinkable and guard against a downward credit spiral."
Broadly speaking, policymakers have three options for putting a safety net under the economy. Each has its pros and cons, and the cons become most apparent when the measures are taken to an extreme. That's why a three-pronged approach that uses each option in moderation may be the best way to go.
The first option is to depend mainly on aggressive measures by the Fed to flood the economy with liquidity. That's already under way. On Mar. 11, the central bank announced an innovative program to lend $200 billion in high-grade Treasury securities to big commercial and investment banks. It will allow them to use, as collateral for the loans, valuable but harder-to-trade assets such as AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities. The measure could enable them to start lending and borrowing again. The cons: no direct help for distressed homeowners who don't qualify for refinancing.
A second option would be some sort of a government-led bailout of homeowners, which reduces the burden of looming debt and high interest rates, and limits foreclosures. The third option would be assistance to the lenders and holders of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to thaw the credit markets. The trouble is, both of these options are seen as unfair by those who don't require bailouts. And it's up in the air who would have to bear the biggest share of the housing-related losses: homeowners, investors, or taxpayers.
It's indisputable, though, what policy changes cannot accomplish. There's no way to stop home prices from falling; they got way too high, and the current crisis won't end until they get back to what the market concludes is a sustainable level. It's not reasonable to try to avoid a recession, either. When a sector as huge as housing goes into a deep dive, it's pretty much inevitable that the rest of the economy will be affected. "We saw a once-in-a-hundred-years runup in housing prices, and now we're seeing a once-in-a-hundred-years collapse," says Harvard University economist Kenneth S. Rogoff. "It's very, very difficult to do much about it."
"GAMBLERS, LIARS, AND SLEAZY LENDERS"The airwaves and blogosphere are alive with people who say nothing should be done. They argue that intervening now would only delay the inevitable liquidation of credit-fueled excesses. "Under proposed bailouts, responsible people lose and have to give their money to gamblers, liars, and sleazy lenders,"
And finally, journalists (not in Bend) are actually trying to grope for a bottom:
Mind the Gap: Home-Price Downside By SCOTT PATTERSON
March 13, 2008
The economic balance hangs in large part on how much further home prices will fall. A look at one important measure -- the relationship between home prices and household income -- suggests we might not even be halfway there.
Over the long run, home prices and income should march along the same path. As households earn more, they can afford to pay for more expensive homes.
But the two can get out of whack. During much of the 1990s, incomes grew faster than home prices. The landscape shifted around 2000. From the start of the decade through the mid-2006 peak, home prices nearly doubled, thanks in part to falling interest rates. Over the same period, income per household rose just 26%, according to Moody's Economy.com.
In certain states, the disparity was extreme. Seven states, including California, Florida and Arizona, saw annualized growth in home prices outpace income growth by 10 percentage points from 2002 through 2006, according to housing expert Thomas Lawler.
The difference between income growth and home prices has started to narrow. Home prices were down 10% through the fourth quarter from their peak in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index. But to bring prices in line with incomes, they will need to fall further. If incomes continue to grow in the next year as they have in the past decade -- probably an optimistic assumption -- it would take a 9% to 12% drop in home prices to bring the two measures in line with each other.In states that saw bigger housing bubbles, the correction will be more severe, says Mr. Lawler.
It is also possible that home prices will overshoot on the downside, just as they did on the upside. Goldman Sachs economists say prices could fall another 15%. Merrill Lynch economists say they could drop another 20% to 30%. Both banks have been more bearish than others on the economy -- and so far look correct to have been so pessimistic.
Retailing Likely Checks In With More Glum Numbers
Consumer spending is one potential casualty of falling home prices. When home values fall, households have less home equity to tap when they want to buy a new flat-screen television.
Today's February retail-sales report from the Commerce Department could provide evidence of that. Sales were up 3.9% in January from a year earlier. That paled in comparison with year-over-year gains of more than 6% that prevailed from 2004 to 2006. It was also less than the 4.3% increase in consumer-price inflation registered in January from a year earlier.
Economists don't expect strong numbers for February. On average, they see an increase of 0.1% from the month before. Auto makers and retailers reported a slow February -- with the exception of Wal-Mart Stores and other discounters, which benefited as shoppers tightened their purse strings. The Federal Reserve's latest "beige book" compilation of economic anecdotes described retail sales as "below plan, downbeat, weak, or having softened" in most of the country since mid-January.
Tax rebates might temporarily boost spending again later this year. But consumers are walking into pretty stiff headwinds.
Funny how a bubble ends so much worse than anyone thinks possible, even supposed "Smart People":
Bear Stearns Co, Inc., 10 year chart
I don't want to repeat any old advice, it's too late. Just look at the BSC chart, and realize that WE are about 18 months behind. And at least 5X more volatile than the rest of the country.
But All Is Well In Bend, right?
No pot of gold: Bend's red ink soars to $20 millionPosted: var wn_last_ed_date = getLEDate("Mar 15, 2008 1:50 AM EST"); document.write(wn_last_ed_date);March 14, 2008 10:50 PM
City's first 2-year budget taking major hit from downturn
By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM
When Bend city councilors get their latest update on the city's distressed budget Monday evening, they'll have to look hard for a St. Patrick's Day rainbow. And even if they find it, there surely won't be a pot of gold at the end of it - not with a projected shortfall nearing $20 million for the city's first two-year budget.
A "summary of revenue shortfalls for the 2007-09 biennium," distributed to the public and councilors Friday, shows the current fiscal year's revenue is $7.6 million below projections - and for 2008-09, the current best guess is for a gap of more than $12 million between expectations and reality.
The biggest hits in the update provided by Finance Director Sonia Andrews are of little surprise: planning, building and engineering fees, along with franchise fees and ambulance and FireMed revenue. Planning fees are expected to be down 50 percent from expectations, or $2.1 million for 2007-08, rising to 59 percent, or off almost $3 million in the year starting July 1.
"With the radical drop in residential housing starts, we have to revise our development revenue estimates downwards," Andrews wrote. "Although commercial building activity continued, the decline in residential activity has simply been too great."
"The shortfalls are in revenues that we depend on for operations," she continued. "For the size of these shortfalls, every department will need to make some reductions for FY 2008-09, and certain budget reductions will affect service levels."
The city already has laid off 10 workers this year and not filled 25 vacancies, along with other cuts in materials and services, and vehicle and equipment purchases.
City departments are scheduled to meet with Interim City Manager Eric King over the next two weeks to finalize budget reduction proposals for the coming budget year, to be presented to the city council and budget committee in April.
On Wednesday night, the council's work session will focus largely on councilors' stated 2008 goals, which include financial stability, community relations, the Urban Growth Boundary expansion, Juniper Ridge and transit.
Well, wait a minute. That sounds like Bad News! That sounds like our Benevolent Leaders don't know what they're doing! I thought in Bend we hold certain truths to be self-evident, and such, right? What happened to That Stuff Only Happens To Other Guys, Much Stupider Than Us? What happened to stuff like this Blast From The Past from Life Is Good:
"Look to CACB-Short... if he's right, we'll look back and say, "Hmmmph.". If he's wrong, well....." He bought his short position in October @ 30.4 and it closed yesterday @ 30.91. When he bought the position the prediction was that if a major stockholder sold a large number of "thinly traded" stocks, CABC would be crushed. On November 29, 3 million shares were sold (11% of the outstanding shares). The stock price barely moved in this huge sale that tripled the previous volume record. It doesn't seem to me there is any question that CABC shorter is under water on his investment, and that he totally missed his bet on how a major sale would affect the stock. Thaks to BEM for resetting the page with a more interesting tone. Life is Good
What has happened to:
We Are Bend Oregon, And We Are Different.
We are smarter than the rest, we are better than the rest.
What Happened?
Finally, here are some mid-month sales stats. If you're afraid the Bust will Never Come, this should put your fears to rest.
Here are the mid March stats: As of 3/14/08
36 Sold @ 261k med.
07 95 Sold @ 358k med.
05 118 Sold @250k med.
1997 42 Sold @123k med.
So we are seeing 1997 volume and 2005 medians....SO FAR
Just somthing to chew on. The pending sale volume is going up..as it does this time of year.
And a final word from Jon Markman at msn.com
Although it seems like the debt crisis has been with us for a long time, true panic has been kept at bay because the size of the potential losses has been underestimated at the same time that the redemptive power of government entities like the Federal Reserve has been overestimated.It's only in the past couple of weeks that investors have been able to determine the potential scope of damage to companies outside banks and brokerages, and those estimates frighten even jaded players.
One leading hedge fund reported in an internal memo this week that "the threat of a death spiral hangs over us" and added, "There is insufficient time for those with the wrong positions to reposition and there is even insufficient time for those with reasonable positions to just get out of the way."
I don't have to really be "negative" anymore. I think it's covered.
$261K medians? Dang it, I could have used that burrito!
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13:44
Trader Joe's - New Opening Date!
» The Little ThingsI'm told that the Trader Joe's that's about to open in Bend has moved their opening date up to March 22 (from March 28)! Trader Joe's will open on March 28 - my original source was wrong. Shame on me for not checking the date. I can't wait - we're in dire need of their salsa and I completely miss their frozen foods, especially the gnocci! You won't see me there next weekend, though. I've dealt with my crowd for the month.
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Sprung
» life is weird (and so am i)It's not exactly Spring here. It snowed again last night, and it's still below freezing almost every night. Scott has plans to play golf today, and I think he's nuts because the weather is still a bit "iffy". But this morning there is blue sky, and my yard is showing signs of waking up from a long winter's rest. We have tulips: And my new lilac bushes (planted last July) didn't die!
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Ultimate Blog Party!
» Stroller Strides - Bend, ORThis is really cool and a great way to get to know other moms out there in the blogasphere!
Thanks to 5 minute moms!
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Ultimate Blog Party!
» DT from da FPSo, I'm a little late to the party but this is cool. Check out the link on the right and see all the great blogs for moms by moms.
Sweet!!
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Chow - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantCHOW - Bend OregonIn my previous visit to CHOW, I expressed my concern over the rather small portions. Since then many people have expressed their different opinions on CHOW to me. One friend said "CHOW is the best thing to happen to Bend in ages". I still have not had the opportunity to try CHOW's breakfast but was able to swing by for dinner.
The menu we looked over was quite a bit different than the one posted online. We decided to start off with the Ahi Tuna with a slab of pork belly. The tuna was delicious and when you combined it with a small bite of the fatty pork belly, you're in heaven. Pork is really good for you. No it's not healthy, but it is good for you. Makes you feel good inside, like a hug.
The tuna appetizer was $14 dollars and I'm not so sure I'd get it again. I felt that the portion of tuna was a bit on the small side. I would have liked more tuna and less pork belly (I can't believe I just said that). Tasted great all around though.
I ordered the Beef Tenderloin served with some foie gras butter, a beef cheek ravioli and some greens for $28.
The beef was cooked a little long but was still very tender and absolutely grubbin. I was very pleased with my meal and the beef cheek was insanely good. Beef + Beef + very little greens + fatty duck liver butter = Happy BOR. I'd go back for this dish for sure.
The wife got the Pork Loin that also came with a slab of the pork belly, some potatoes au gratin, and some collard greens for $27. The only knowledge I have about the price of pork belly comes from the 100 times I've seen Trading Places with Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroid. I know that pork in general is not as expensive as beef so why would her pork loin cost only a dollar less than my double beef delight? No idea, but that stuff drives me nuts.
The photo of her entree did not come out. After this dinner, CHOW will be in the rotation for a nice dinner out. Oh, I have to mention the HUGE clock by the fire place. Not sure what's going on over there but the wife pointed out that the time on the clock was 4:20 and not moving. Funny stuff.
So anyway, the portions were much better at CHOW this time around and I do look forward to going back. I also am really trying to get over there for breakfast. Stay tuned.
CHOW
1110 NW Newport Ave
Bend, Oregon 97701
541-728-0256
[www.chowbend.com]
Hours
Open 7 days
Breakfast and Lunch 7am to 2pm
Dinner 5pm to Close
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Rumors of Bend Bulletin Real Estater Reporter's Demise Abound
» Juniper Ridge InfoOne casualty of the turmoil in Bend may be David Fisher, who covered the real estate beat for the Bend Bulletin. From the Bend Economy Board there is an interesting thread fleshing out a rumor reported in the alternative weekly,the Source:Interesting week in The Bulletin's business section.
First, The Source comes out with this blurb on Thursday ...Quote:
TV isn't the only one getting into the act. A little bird told us that a reporter across town, well known for his real estate coverage, walked out when editors insisted that he spin his latest story to emphasize the positive side of the housing slump.
Oh, well, what's one more fairy tale in makebelieveland?
That caused Bulletin Executive Editor John Costa to fan his line editors through the newsroom to assure everyone that said real estate reporter had really been fired for lying about being sick.
Which didn't play well with a lot of the staff, because this email had already made the rounds for a couple of days ...Quote:
Charlene: (Apparently meaning Sharlene Crabtree, the Bulletin's Human Resources Director) Here's my response to the March 4 Separation Notice:
3-4-2008
I did not "lie about being sick." I took two days off after an article I wrote for the Feb. 26 paper was edited by my supervisor, Business Editor John Stearns, in such a way as to remove any facts or opinions that tended to disagree with a public speaker's rosy predictions for the local real estate industry. As I told him, my intent was to carefully consider why that particularly editing job, which I viewed as dishonest, upset me, and to calm down enough to rationally discuss the issue with him.
When I returned, I was not "questioned about the days off" -- I initiated a meeting with Mr. Stearns and told him, without prompting, that I had not been physically ill but needed two "mental health days," in my phrasing, to determine how I should best discuss my future with the paper with him in a calm, rational way, rather than forcing the issue when I was angry and confused.
I told him during that meeting on Feb. 28 that I felt that the editing job on my Feb. 26 story was part of a pattern of editing that included misleading headlines, sources being banned from my coverage, story ideas getting spiked, and odd pre-story cajolling, all of which seemed designed by the executive editor to generate more favorable coverage of the local real estate market than I have thought was best in the two years I have been assigned to cover it for the paper. I further told him that, although I believed that the articles I had written for the paper were as thorough and as accurate as I could make them, the utter hack job that was done on my Feb. 26 story had led me to conclude that the paper was not willing to cover the industry as honestly as it should, given that the housing market -- which is economically important to the paper -- is now in the midst of a steep downturn.
I asked to be shifted to another beat, including others that had been identified by the executive editor as important to the paper's overall coverage, such as the business of medicine, or the banking industry. I told him I felt that I would be allowed to cover those beats "straight," without what I perceived to be the editors' emotional desire to slant coverage of the real estate market.
He denied that the paper's editors intended to color the news and criticized me for taking the days off, rather than confronting him with my concerns immediately. I told him again that I felt that I needed the time to clarify my own thoughts before I attempted to have a discussion with him, but if he felt the days weren't covered by our sick leave or vacation policy, I would be happy to take them as unpaid time off.
Stearns told me on March 3 that he had discussed my request to change beats with the executive editor. I don't know what was discussed in that meeting, but I was fired the next day.
In conclusion, there was no violation of the ethics code. I was quite honest about my reasons for not coming to work for two days, and was, I suspect, fired for stating those reasons to my supervisor.
Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to respond.
According to a quick look at the edit trail in The Bulletin's computer system, apparently what set him off -- finally -- was an edit job on a story on Dana Bratton's pie-in-the-sky real estate "forecast" speech last Monday that scrubbed paraphrases from Bill Valentine and Brooks Resources honchos Kirk Schueler and Mike Hollern, all saying that they think the downturn is going to last a whole lot longer than the April 25 turnaround date that Bratton ladled out to the adoring real estate crowd at The Riverhouse.
That pesky stuff got axed on orders from Costa, who told his business editor to "stick to what was said at the meeting."
Out, too, went a section that pointed out that the ridiculous predictions that Bratton made last year of a quick RE turnaround also -- uh -- kinda failed to pan out.
Which left the good readers of Bend with the vision of Dana Bratton, grand real estate prognosticator, predicting that everything will be hunky-dory by May, contradicted only slightly by those notorious pessimists at the National Association of Realtors, who actually suggested that sales might not turn around until late this year.
Could it be an accident that all of this is happening a week after the Realtors and Builders announced their "Best Time in 20 Years to Buy a House" campaign? Complete with plans for a good, old-fashioned media blitz?
Journalism at its finest, and right here in River City.
A search on the Bulletin site shows Fisher has only couple of bylines since the Bratton story, while before he wrote something nearly every day. One of his last was "Sellers Offer Cold, Hard Cash To Get Homes Off The Market". Andrew Moore wrote the latest real estate story on Awbrey Butte's new homeowners association. So perhaps the pushback has really taken another step forward.
On a related note, I am now officially a stringer for the Bend Weekly, with a Press Pass on the way. My first article was posted here. Now I should be able to get into the Executive Sessions. I plan to offer a much more skeptical viewpoint then the other cheerleaders in town, and certailnly better than the crap in the Bulletin today titled "Juniper Ridge Q&A", which I would link to if it wasn't behind their paywall.
Plus there is that pesky little detail of the City Council making a $2.56M decision in Executive Session to pay off Juniper Ridge Partners. My biggest goal is to force greater transparency around this issue, and a major step forward in that process will occur this week. Stay tuned...
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Famous in Bend, Oregon
» Chubby Mommy Running ClubHey look! Bend bloggers, including Chubby Mommy, made it to the front page of the Bend Bulletin today. Slow news day, or are we really this cool?
Click here to read the article... I'll wait to continue 'til you get back.
I thought the reporter did a nice job of weaving real life and blog life into one story, and Shannon had some great quotes, too.
Plus I like Jake's shirt, and his attempt at humbleness with his quote: "I'm amazed that my blog is as popular as it is, as I really didn't start it to get popular..."
Uh huh. I'm totally with you on that one Jake.
And I'm hopping at least 300 people will buy a $3 used book from Duncan today. Maybe even Sally can afford to shop at Pegasus, if her aunt will give her a few days off to come back to "Marvelous Bend."
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Keepin' It Real
» DT from da FP"If God exists and we are made in his image we can have real meaning, and we can have real knowledge through what he has communicated to us." - Francis Schaeffer
I like that. It means something to me.
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El Burrito - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantEl Burrito - Bend OregonSome Mexican food lovin friends of mine met me at El Burrito for some lunch last week. It is no secret that I and a huge fan of Mexican cuisine. I'd eat it for every meal if I could. El Burrito was off my radar until I took a wrong turn looking for Stars and ended up on the wrong side of 3rd street.
I'm kidding. I wasn't looking for Stars...shoot, I KNOW where Stars is. I'm just not allowed to go. The wife doesn't really mind the naked ladies, just doesn't like the idea of me giving them our money. It just occurred to me that I have not reviewed the food at Stars yet. Mmmm stripper glitter on my steak like some sea salt sounds good right.
Anyway, one of my friends uses tacos as his benchmark for whether a Mexican joint is good or not. He orders three tacos; al pastor, carna asada, and pork/carnitas on "a comal" (soft corn) tortilla shells. I totally bit off him and ordered the exact same thing. I LOVE tacos and I don't care that I ordered the exact same thing as someone else at the table.
I didn't fall in love with El Burrito like many of the loyal followers yet. I do want to go back to try something else. The tacos were ok but not great. The al pastor was really salty and the carna asada was a bit dry.The chips and salsa were just like I like them, free and spicy. Nothing on the menu is overly priced and I am looking forward to trying something else soon.
El Burrito
335 NE Dekalb Street
Bend Oregon 97702
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Blogger Nerds at The Blacksmith
» Chubby Mommy Running ClubAll the blogger nerds got together tonight at the Blacksmith restaurant in downtown Bend for a social "mixer." There were tons of us there,maybe 30. It was wild and unexpected to have so many people in one room who know all about my bad car wash experience. Especially since my husband hadn't read that post yet.
Super fun party, I must say.
And I think I met my new best friend. She's the one who writes "Knocked Up in Bend" [lilberger.blogspot.com] .
So, she's pregnant, actually.
When she met me, I had my long black coat on. It's my camouflage "slimming" coat. I try to keep it on as long as I can, because as soon as I take it off, my chub flows over into real life. But in a dimly lit bar, after a few drinks, well...it does the trick sometimes. Plus, I get prettier the more I drink, and if I keep my black coat on, I can forget about my belly rolls falling over the top of my jeans. I just forget all about them...it's handy.
Anyhoo, I was wearing my long black coat, and I met this adorable pregnant lady and I said "You must be the 'Knocked Up' girl! I'm Chubby Mommy, nice to meet you!"
And she said "You're not so chubby."
See, this is why I like these types of events. It's so easy to make friends.
I met so many very cool people tonight. And to be honest, they weren't all nerds. I think the super nerds stayed home, since they're shy, so the place was packed with "mostly regular" people like me, who love to write about themselves and meet people who read about them.
It's all about us, really. That's the fun of a blogger party! We're all so happy to share our stories, and boy oh boy, are we happy to meet the people who read our stories, too.
Can't wait 'til the next one.
For the record, Jake, of Bend Blogs [bendblogs.com] won the name tag contest. Thanks for playing, Jake.
He was the only one who brought a handmade name tag, but that should not diminish the cool factor of his duct tape name tag. I like to think he made that name tag in honor of my duct tape car repair post. He won a token from Lucky Oliver: [www.luckyoliver.com] which is a fabulous site to get cheap photos for your blog or design project.The reason this is an extra cool prize is this: I met the guys who started Lucky Oliver this summer at a New Tech Meetup in Palo Alto, when they presented their start-up to 150 of their peers. They gave me this token, which I've saved for a special occasion.
Congrats, Jake, you deserved this token of my esteem. Duct tape rules, man!
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A couple of local restaurant postings.....
» DT from da FPSo, we went out a couple of times last week and had some interesting experiences.
First we went to McMenamins before the Fly Fishing Film Festival on Wednesday. We got there in plenty of time to have a brew and a burger and get to the Tower for some decent seats. The restaurant was busy, but not totally crazy.
Well, nobody told them that. We got there at 5:45 and didn't get our cheeseburgers until 6:30. How is that possible? I asked for my salad but that didn't even come until about 5 minutes before my burger. It was a total disaster.
Anyway, when my hubby mentioned it to our server instead of empathy she had all kinds of excuses. He was very cordial but wanted to make sure someone knew that the service was unacceptable.
In the end she gave us 2 brews and the salad for free, but I think we're done with that restaurant. There are just too many choices out there now.
Our second foray out was on Friday night to Seasons up at the Inn. We discovered this restaurant about a year ago and have been there twice in the past year or so. Both times my husband and I both walked away feeling like we had just had the best epicurean experience we could possibly have in this town. The service, portions, food, special touches....all these things lent themselves to a truly unique and satisfying dining experience.
Well, last night we returned expecting great things and we were disappointed. They cleaned house up there - totally revamping the food and beverage department. All the old guys were gone - manager, waitstaff, exec. chef - all gone. The menu was totally changed as well.
HOWEVER.... the food was delicious. We were very impressed with the new selections and found the menu to be robust and interesting.
The service was not so stellar. We had a waiter that we think may have been hittin' the pipe, if you know what I mean. After our meal we spoke with the new manager, Javier, and he was very understanding, very courteous and really listened to us. So, we're not ready to write them off but it was sad to see the old guys go. The juniper granita palate cleanser was a real draw. We will probably give them one more try but we'll call Javier first and request their best server before we give them another shot.
Anyway, this town is crazy for restaurants and we'll keep trying. It would just be nice to find an old standby for special occasions.
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Heart Shaped Pizza - Papa Murphy's
» Bend Oregon RestaurantPapa Murphy's Heart Shaped PizzaI hate Valentine's Day. I never have like the Hallmark of Holiday's and I especially have never liked the price of flowers. Good lordy, you'd think roses were made of gold or could get you high by sniffing them for how much they cost in February. The wife and I started our lives together pretty poor. In fact, I recently found a pay stub from a job I had when we moved in together. Oh man, after rent, I think all I could afford was the Heart Shaped Pizza from Papa Murphy's on Valentines Day. Back then I believe it was $5.99 and was a nice break from our nightly chicken and rice (and some nights it was just rice).
We've been renting a movie and eating the Heart Shaped Pizza every year since. This year was no exception. Wouldn't you know it, Bend's Best Food Critic (yeah, that's me) eats Papa Murphy's Pizza on one of the best dining out nights of the year. That's right, I think I am the best food critic in Bend. I'm not the best restaurant reviewer. I think you need some writing skills which I aint gots. Laurie J. Rice takes the prize there although I don't like some of the restaurants that she reviews, that girl has skillz.
MMMmmm. I preheat to 430 and bake for 10 minutes, rotate and bake for another 5 on the bottom rack. Good eats!
Papa Murphy's Take n Bake Pizza
[www.papamurphys.com]
NE:
(541) 389-7272
211 Ne Revere Ave, Bend, OR
South:
(541) 382-6767
61160 S Highway 97 Ste E, Bend, OR
Another awesome review of Papa Murphy's - Bend Oregon
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15:19
Bend Bloggers Unite!
» The Little ThingsSince I moved to Bend, I've been lucky enough to get to know a few local bloggers pretty well, to meet a few others that I hope to get to know better, and to exchange e-mail messages with several others.
A new opportunity - one that will allow me to meet many of the folks I've been wanting to meet (while also allowing me to see several of the folks I've already met IRL) - has come up! Bend Bloggers (and spouses - I haven't asked Mr. LT if he wants to go yet, but I suspect he'll only come if Mr. liw(asai) comes) are going to be getting together - hope to see you there!
Details:When: 5:30-ish, Thursday, February 21, 2008
Location: Blacksmith Restaurant
211 NW Greenwood Ave.
(541) 318-0588
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Symposium
» life is weird (and so am i)There are many "dictionary" definitions for the word symposium. This one is my favorite: (in ancient Greece and Rome) a convivial meeting, usually following a dinner, for drinking and intellectual conversation.And... it best fits an upcoming event that everyone out there in blogland should consider attending! I have met many of you IRL, and have made some very good friends through this blog. This
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7:00
Bend Oregon: The Other Shoe Has Dropped
» Bend Bubble 2The Denial Continues:
Here's a good Reuters piece that summarizes the attitude of most economists towards the housing debacle, and certainly Bend media about our local situation:
Year of "denial" in U.S. subprime crisisFri Feb 8, 2008 7:01pm EST By Jennifer CooganNEW YORK (Reuters) - One year after the first alarm bells of the subprime mortgage crisis rang on Wall Street, many of its victims are trading at half their value or less, while others have long been buried.
On February 8, 2007, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said it would take a charge of about $10.6 billion on subprime loans. The evening before, the No. 2 U.S. subprime lender, New Century Financial Corp (NEWCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), had unexpectedly warned it faced a quarterly loss and said it would restate previous earnings.
New Century shares lost more than a third of their value on February 8, but to look at the overall market, there was no telling how big a toll the crisis would take on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 shed less than 2 points that day.
By spring, the stocks of subprime lenders were falling into a death spiral and dropped from the major exchanges in steady succession.
On April 2, New Century filed for bankruptcy protection. American Home Mortgage Investment Corp AHM.N followed in August. Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (LEND.O: Quote, Profile, Research) was bought out by a private equity firm in October.
Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the nation's No. 1 lender, hit a high of $44.92 on February 7, 2007. The shares are now trading at $6.58 as it awaits a takeover by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
But despite the bloodbath in the mortgage finance sector, investors last autumn were still confident enough that the subprime debacle was contained that they pushed both the Dow and S&P 500 to lifetime highs on October 11.
From its intraday high on October 11 to Friday's close, the S&P 500 index has fallen 15.5 percent."That's been the history of the last year. Denial, denial denial," said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an investment research firm in Springfield, New Jersey. "That's what held stock up in October.
That confidence was shaken shortly after, when Merrill Lynch warned it would have to write down billions of dollars more in subprime-related debt than it had previously said. Citigroup, Bear Stearns and others added to the writedown chorus.
In a year, Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has fallen nearly 45 percent. Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) stock has fallen more than 52 percent and Bear Stearns has shed nearly 51 percent. In addition to millions in market capitalization, all three firms have lost their chief executives.
By New Year, consensus formed that the subprime crisis would indeed spread beyond the mortgage and financial market and into the broader economy, and potentially beyond U.S. borders.
"More recently people realized the theory of decoupling was a fairytale, that the U.S. really is the world's economic leader," Shilling said. "There's still a lot of denial. The consensus is begrudgingly admitting we're into or close to recession, but the consensus is now that it will be over in the first half of the year."
Wall Street may have been late to recognize the impact of the subprime crisis, but the public caught on fast. Less than a year after HSBC and New Century fired their warning flares, the television show "Law and Order" featured a plot about a con-artist who scammed subprime mortgage holders facing foreclosure to sign over their homes.
Why is it that virtually EVERYONE "wants" this housing debacle to be mild so badly that they are perfectly FINE with making failed prediction after failed prediction that there will probably be NO RECESSION, ONLY A BARELY PERCEPTIBLE SLOWDOWN?
And incredibly this continues today. Every "prediction" is followed by COMPLETE FAILURE in it's predictive ability, but by God, they have NO PROBLEM issuing YET ANOTHER PREDICTION WHERE THERE IS NO FORMAL CONTRACTION (ie Recession).
This blog and most of it's commenters have said the Exact Opposite, And Been Dead Right.
Again: It'll be worse than you ever thought possible. It'll be worse than I thought possible. And I think it's going to be pretty gat damn bad.
To wit, mstucker posted on BendBB (don't cry Paulie... she can see other guys. We never agreed it was exclusive...) some horrendously deteriorating stats:
As of today the Jan 08 Stats are:
Residential homes on less than an acre, Bend Sold=73
Median price=$310,000
Avg PP SF = $185.87
Avg SF = 2,057
DOM = 191
This is a 8.3% decline from Last Month! Last Month! I'm not sure how much stock I put in any stats regarding Bend RE at this point, cuz as I've said before, we've just reached The Sleeping Point: Our monthly sample sizes are too small to be reliable or indicative of any real trend. Even if I would have won the much vaunted Burrito Bet with BendBB, it would have been something of a hollow victory, cuz it could have just been a blip in the stats. 2 months below $300K? That would have been convincing.
The longest-running, internally consistent stats now seem to be coming from Doug Farmer.
David Foster seems to have thrown in the towel. Could it be that he has mentally walked away from RE as a career? Is tired of posting similar "hopeful" opinions, and pretty much being proved wrong? These posts don't really return him much given the time input? I don't know, but I sort of get the feeling that when you watch your industry disintegrate before your eyes, it's hard to stay enthused enough to write that all is well... or will be soon.
I've updated Doug's data in a google spreadsheet. There are some very forbidding numbers there.
First, it's The First Time that unit sales have fallen below 100 in Doug's data set, which goes back to Nov 2005. Only 94 units of all residential subtypes sold in Bend in January.
What does that mean?
That means the end of real estate as a career for MOST of Central Oregon. We should see mass exodus by many, MANY RE brokers in 2008. The weak will die en masse, the strong will be near-starvation, and many of them will die. Real Estate as a career & an industry (our PRIMARY industry) is Imploding.
94 units sold at an average of $388K (that's down 12.4% from Jan 2007's avg of $443K) means $36MM in sales, or about $2.2MM in commissions (assuming 6%, which is dubious at this point).
Remember, those commission dollars are split 4 ways, the respective listing & selling brokers & their respective motherships. And assuming 2,000 (that's LOW) brokers, that's $1,100 per, and divide by 4. Well, you can see this isn't sufficient for even 1/10th of our current broker count. Numbers down here is simply The End for HUNDREDS of the best paying jobs of the past 5 years.
According to Doug, the raw median for Jan was $307,500. This seems sort of odd given mstuckers addmittedly preliminary (but probably very close to the final figures) of $310K. Remember Doug's data covers "all residential subtypes" including townhomes, condos, and residential on acreage, amongst others. And it's the decent number of acreage properties that pushes Doug's median above the straight residential w/o acreage medians.
But not this month. This tells me (maybe wrongly) that acreage homes are falling apart compared to low-end stuff like mobiles.
And if higher end stuff is deteriorating, it seems maybe "trophy" home sales are starting to get hit, which also seems to be the case. Case in point, BendBB's listing data:
You can see that LISTING medians in Bend have flatlined at $400K +/- $1,000 for months. But sold prices are falling pretty regularly. So the high-end is going begging. No one is buying that stuff. Oh, they're still listing the hell out of it... but it ain't moving.
Why does this really matter? Well, I think I've heard the familiar refrain the "Bend Will Completely Escape The Fall In Prices Because Bend Is 103% Populated With Multi-Millionaires". Hmmmm... maybe that's true, but these vast fields of millionaires are starting to buy LOW END HOMES, and that's IF they buy anything at all... which they ain't.
Better than raw medians, is median PPSF:
Bend continues it's monotonic decrease, falling to $205/sf, down from a high of $227/sf in March of last year. Better to see the changes is PPSF's indexed to zero:
So you can easily see that homes as a store of value are falling HARD, especially adjusted for size, which seems to be the right measure.
So when does this conflagration end?
Welp, not soon, and not even close to current prices. Doug's AAA stat, most important number in Central Oregon economic stats is, of course, MONTHS OF INVENTORY. And at 20.01 months, this bodes VERY BADLY for the coming RE selling season. Last January this number was 12 months... and there was quite a bit of gravedancing.
WHEN SHOULD YOU BUY A HOME HERE?
I say again, "WHEN MONTHS OF INVENTORY STAYS BELOW 6 MONTHS FOR 3 MONTHS IN A ROW."
This is a deviation from my "12 months average below 6 months of inventory", and that's what I personally will look for. Either that or prices down around $200K adjusted for inflation. Yup... $200K! My 2007 number was $190K, or so so I'm adding the long-term average of 4% per annum, and rounding up a little. Hey, I'm an optimist.
But we won't see that for a long, LONG time. Why?
First, IT'S WORSE THAN ANYONE THINKS. I know, repetitive. But no one seems to be swallowing this. IT IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK. This isn't just a speed bump, neither locally or nationally. It is CATACLYSMIC. Our kids will look back on this as "Our Depression". We will ALL look back on this as The Turning Point, when we became Second Rate.
Huh? Yeah, see that's what happens when each & every person loses 1/4th... 1/3rd... or like here, 1/2 their wealth in a heavily indebted primary asset.If you count roughly 75,000 housing units in Deschutes County, and each one losing $150K, that's $11.25 BILLION in losses. I know, doesn't seem possible, until you realize that back in the early 90's the ENTIRETY of Deschutes County real property was assessed closer to $1.5BB. It's now around $24 billion.
This is The Tsunami Wave down. This ain't that yearly cyclicality crap. Nor is it the decade long, Long Wave. This is The Big One. This one will blow out half the wealth of this place. It's OUT MIGRATION. IT'S MASS VACANCY, BOTH RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL.
To repeat, IT IS WORSE THAN YOU EVER THOUGHT POSSIBLE. If you don't know what the f--k to do, it's cuz you're a deer caught in the headlights. Wake Up White People! Your ass needs to FLEE.
Sell that s--thole surplus housing unit FOR WHATEVER YOU CAN GET. Hell, don't believe me, here's mstuckers take on it from a week or so ago:
I tell my buyers and sellers the truth. Don't buy now. And sell as fast as you can at the lowest price you can or stay forever.
Now I'm not sure I'm all in with the "sell at the lowest price you can" thing... I think *maybe* she means mark 'er down & get that White Elephant sold. The lowest PPSF in the neighborhood is The Only Stuff that'll sell.
Until January, you could conceivably say that the Bend RE market was "holding Up" OK. Prices had not really imploded. So you could say, "Hey, I might not have a great chance of selling, but at least I can still ask a decent price, cuz everyone else in the neighborhood is still asking more than what they paid".
No more. The Other Shoe Has Dropped. NOW, price is starting to plummet AND you have about a snowballs chance in hell of selling (remember 94 units... lowest per capita sold in Bend since The Earth was a molten ball of lava). Price is running away lower... and NO ONE is buying at these lower prices.
That sound?
That's THE OTHER SHOE HITTING THE FLOOR.
Buster Makes A Funny:
Usually Busters idea of humor is calling Bruce or I a smelly cunt. And I'll admit it was pretty funny the first 600X he said that. Now, I know that everybody has ulterior motives, little pet-projects that they want to succeed no matter what, and they'll talk about it whatever the forum topic is.
And brucey has apparently started mixing business & pleasure by threatening to legally whale on our helpless City Council unless they either staighten up... or buy Capstone turbines.
I know Bruce... I'm just bulls--tting you. But Buster's response was pretty good:
Don't you f--king realize you can't send a public letter to a public official that says, Hey Bitch your breaking the law, and unless you buy 1,000 capstone micro energy butt-plugs I going to file a complaint...
That s--t is funny! Sorry, just had to post that! Buster actually said something funny, without calling Brucey or I a smelly cunt!
timothy said...
>>This season, pass prices increased another 12 percent to $929.
Tim & others talked about the Bachelor debacle, in a thread started about -- *GASP* -- unfavorable piece on how the mountain is being managed via HARVESTING methods. Excerpt:
At Mt. Bachelor, mixed reviews
Bend Chamber chairman voices concerns; others say everything's OK
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: February 06. 2008 4:00AM PST
The chairman of the Bend Chamber of Commerce board of directors fears the region’s economy could suffer from customer dissatisfaction with Mt. Bachelor ski area.
...
Mt. Bachelor, which is owned by Park City, Utah-based Powdr Corp., had its second best season ever in 2005-06 with approximately 590,000 visitors. Visitor counts dropped about 10 percent in 2006-07, according to the Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association.
This year’s totals are behind last year’s pace, mainly due to a slow start to the season due to late-arriving storms, a national economic slowdown and several weekends of heavy snowfall that have hindered travel, Janney said.
Bachelor is simply being managed for harvesting of profits prior to a sale. "APPARENT" profits are maximized in an imaginary wonderland of NO CAPEX EXPENDITURES. The lifts are breaking, prices are being hiked, wages are slashed, service levels are disastrous... but by God, profits are going thru the roof.
Bachelor is going to be sold.
But it will be destroyed first as Powdr maxes out profits. This is Yet Another Nail in The Central Oregon Economic Coffin. Bachelor is The Only Thing That Keeps This Place Afloat During The Winter. Take away 600,000 Bachelor visits, and you've got Armageddon.
And Bachelor is being managed to the Sleeping Point.
Luckily Bend taxpayers are joint-partners in the continued MARKETING of this calamity. You cannot MARKET your way out of a BAD REPUTATION. People's memory LASTS LONG when they are GOUGED price-wise & are ALSO SCREWED with bad service.
Predicted this last year. Busted lifts & OVERRUN... people were FURIOUS. You can't market away furious.
But luckily you & I are acting as joint-partners in scheme to prop up Bachelor in last gasp of profit maximizing before Powdr blows Bachelor out the hatch. We are spending hundreds of thousands to get people from SoCal (dupes) to stay an extra 24 hours.
Self-fulfilling disaster. Did this last year, when Bachelor was at 110% of capacity, and people showed AND GOT FURIOUS WHEN THERE WAS NO SKIING TO BE DONE. Smart. Let's MARKET our way to 120% of capacity, so as to infuriate everyone who comes here to stand in lift lines at Bachelor for hours.
Good Call Bend. Yet another reason we will go broke. Yet another reason It Will Be Worse Than You Thought Possible.
Developers adjust Bend hotel plans
Well, today we hear that Yet Another Mega-Project has been "Right Sized". Remember... nothing is ever DOWNSIZED in Bend... plans are "adjusted" toward a Better Idea Than We've Ever Yet Dreamed. Geez.
Anyway, The Village can't get funding for ludicrous square footage no one wants, so they have scaled back to merely inane square footage no one wants.
This brings up a side issue raised by BEM:
Paul,
Please put the The Village condotel on the R.I.P. list.
Also, please put the Pine Nursery sport fields. These were also killed by the RE bust.
I'm not sure what to do about this, cuz the RIP list was something I originally thought of as 100% Total Failures. Like The Plaza. Like The Shire (Note to self: Put the Shire on the RIP list). Here was my take on it:
I think the Mercado is about ready for your gravestone. Ain't seen anybody there, not even the guards the signs warn you about, for months now.
Yeah, I've noticed that thing sits untouched.
But I actually consider the fact that they are doing nothing some sort of acceptance of the reality of the Bend RE situation, and not really a failure.
They bought the land at the top, so that's about a half failure... but the crazy f--kers are not building either by financial fiat or by choice. Either way they are not digging themselves an even deeper grave.
The Plaza (and probably The Shire to a lesser extent) is a great example of someone committing 100% to a brain-dead RE concept & losing everything.
The Bend Pine park & Mercato qualify more as 1/2 failures in my eyes.
I want to prioritze these losers...
It seems there are 3 pieces to this. I guess there's the RIP tome: stuff that was built and failed spectacularly. And then there are the Brain Dead projects; like Mercato or the Redmond Water Park; alive but in a coma. And then there's the merely amputated: These are not "dead" projects, but they have been vastly scaled back. This is The Village.
But where does IronHorse fit in? Or Yarrow? These projects were necessarily "built to order" in large measure, so they could never really be classified as "dead"... but they sure as hell are failing... MASSIVELY. They fall more in the "amputee" section. They are missing Huge Chunks they were supposed to have by now.
I don't know. I want to preserve some sort of classification of these things. Bend going broke is far, FAR more a Big Deal than Mercato not getting built. Maybe I'll have some sort of classification: DOA, Brain Dead, and Amputees. Don't know. Ideas?
Speaking of insane, they quote a Bend developer, Brad Fraley, in the Village piece. He actually used to go by a pseudonym, Matt Foley. He gave talks to Realtors & stuff, pumping them up. I actually found a video of one of his recent motivational talks. It's pretty good:
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Summit and CHOW!
» There's Always SomethingI've tried two newish restaurants in the past three days. Both were excellent... I'm no BOR so my reviews will be short and sweet. Jen and Little Things invited me to breakfast on Friday at Chow. Unfortunately, Little Things was sick and couldn't meet us so Jen and I had a quiet breakfast. They brought out some pastries which were flaky and filled with gooey goodness (one had apples, the other a -
A 'safety net' torn
» There's Always SomethingSince this story is behind the Bulletin's pay wall, I thought I'd repost it on my blog. I'm a board member for the Family Access Network - a great non-profit organization that bridges the gaps for many families in Deschutes County. Recently FAN lost a large sum of money they receive from the government which breaks my heart. Anyway, read below and thanks for listening. ~ Shannon Slash in funds
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What's Happening to my Town??
» DT from da FPToday I drove my beautiful daughter to the theater for a date with her Oma and decided to take Greenwood then cut through downtown. I think I was downtown like a month ago or so and I was totally flabbergasted at how many businesses have disappeared from the landscape. Driving down Greenwood and then across Bond it was just crazy!
What's happening to my town? I also heard today that Chatterbeans is closing at the end of the month. Their website is already gone and they're on their way out. So sad! You just can't make it in this town anymore. All the landlords think this is Vail or something. So so sad!
Driving into the Old Mill district all I can say is who do they think is going to shop at White House Black Market and Chico's anyway? Not me. Give me a good sale at ShopKo any day! They have nice quality stuff and I'd rather spend my money on people and projects than a $200 shirt!
I'm slightly depressed about all this. The economy is going downhill FAST! Good luck to our next president. She or he is going to have quite a job ahead of them. I wonder if they think about this as they race from state to state?
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Disclosures, possible conflicts of interest
» Hack BendI realized on Friday that this was a post I needed to write, not because I'm (currently) running into any conflicts of interest—that I know of—but to head off any future potential ones and establish a line. Also, to put down in writing the "policy" I'm following.
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7:00
Take off the Beer Goggles, and Start ta Chewin'
» Bend Bubble 2Addendum:
Bend Median and Average Price per square foot drops to lowest level in 2 years:
Prices drop below $200/sf, first time in almost 2 years, down 18% from June 2006 all-time high.
Damn! Another week where the desperation meter on the housing market seemed to redline all week! The fear was palpable, and was best manifested in the absolute plummet in Cascade Bancorp shares. CACB lost 25% in the last 9 trading days, and 50% in the past 3 months. Here's a 3 year chart:
If I had to choose some sort of "leading indicator" of Bend's economy, this would be my #2 choice. The tentacles of CACB's financial grip on this area make its share price a pretty damn good indicator of the area's financial health, in my mind.
"What's the most important indicator of Bend's financial health?", you ask? Well, I'm glad you asked, and if you'll just shut up for 2 seconds, I'll answer. It's this:
Months Inventory, Bend OR. Y-axis Inverted
Anybody who is even a remotely regular visitor to this blog, should know well that I consider Months Of Inventory to be THE primary indicator of RE health in the area, and further that RE Health = =~ Total Economic Health, at least in the Bend area.
And I inverted the axis, mainly because "rising" graphs are most easily associated with "Good Times", and falling with "Bad". Now, the final data point in December 2007, are estimations: the data won't be finalized until later this month. But I used 1,275 actives, and 74 sales to make the computation. I got the 74 solds from a post on BendBB, and the 1,275 is a low-ball estimate from my own "vague recollection" of running a query on COR, and getting a number in the 1,320's. So I lowballed my own estimate by about 50 homes.
And look at that leading plummet in Months-of-Inventory vs that CACB chart: It's like that baby had eyes! Months of Inventory led the stock markets own best guess about the financial health of CACB, arguably one of the most important companies in Central Oregon, and one hell of a bellweather.
If you compare that plot of Months of Inventory vs home prices, you see an almost pathological correlation: Prices ain't moving, while inventory is skyrocketing! If this was a store, it would be a ghost town with inventory piled up in the aisles. And you might wonder WHY the collective behavior of a group of people could be so oblivious to such an obviously rapidly deteriorating condition?
You need look no farther than the recent editions of The Bulletin, as usual. The Jan 4 Business headline, "Why relocate to Central Oregon? Companies cite region's quality of life, relatively low cost of doing business".
Wow! Whoa! We're finally going to get some nice, rock-solid reasons that the Big Boys have shrugged off the clearly wrongheaded advice of this blog, and are running headlong into Central Oregon, right?
Huh. See, you'd think that, given the title of the article. But it's funny. Seems David Fisher named the article FIRST, and did interviews SECOND. Cuz when you actually READ THE ARTICLE, you read quotes by execs from Integrated Environmental Technologies, saying things like:
"... currently Bend is comparable to other places, but I don't think I would characterize it as overly favorable."
Whoa! Talk about your ringing endorsement! What's next?
"I am indifferent between relocating my company to Bend and the smoking caldera of a volcano."
And with a name like Integrated Environmental Technologies, you'd think we are hitting the Big Time, right? Ummmm, no. IET, it seems, makes garbage cans where they burn garbage. OK, fine, they make real kick-ass garbage incinerators that burn the hell outta garbage, sort of what I did when I was a kid when I threw aerosol cans into burning garbage cans. Except they charge millions, and got "scientists" studying this stuff. It's companies like this that make me feel smart, cuz they pay big money to guys to figure out the scientific niceties of the aftermath of pyromaniacs like myself.
So, we have this company that rates Bend about a "4" on the business scale, why are they moving some of their office operations here?
"... the ability to recruit."
Whoa! Again, we have found a braintrust that has clearly done their homework. The ability NOT to recruit in Bend has been hashed over ad nauseum in this blog, so I won't do it again, but if you are moving to Bend because of the favorable recruiting atmosphere, you are an idiot.
Then later in the article we get this nugg, courtesy of Roger "Bait-and-Switch" Lee, EDCO muckety-much:
"EDCO gave IET's board a sales pitch on the advantages of Oregon's tax structure and utility rates, Lee said. Other than that, the company's (sic) executives toured the area on their own and made the call to move here. "We didn't have a chance to sell them on the community at all, " Lee said."They went shopping and sold themselves on it."
Ahhhhhhhhh. These geniuses "went shopping" to figure out whether to relocate here, or not. See, I wanna know where they went, in their quest to figure out whether to relocate their company here. Victoria's Secret? Safeway? Wal-Mart? Where?
Now, I'm not saying you should do this, but when IET does their IPO, I might not buy shares. Because if you make business decisions on where you're going to relocate your company based on a visit to Home Depot, you aren't going to get any slice of Paul-doh's humble retirement pie.
OK, OK. So maybe IET is a statistical outlier. They are barely making any sales of their kickass garbage cans, and figure a visit to an adult bookstore in Bend will hold the answers. Clearly David Fisher winnowed out some Real Winners that are picking up & making the important decision to move their operations, logistical, manufacturing, marketing, and finance divisions to Bend, right?
You're damn right! The Bulletin is all about brass tacks reporting, and giving it to us straight, and there IS a company that is moving it's considerable bulk to Central Oregon, and frankly I don't know why it wasn't picked up by the Wall Street Journal. I don't want to steal Fishers thunder, so I'll just quote the piece:
"That was pretty much the case with Kristen Smith Ehlers, who moved her designer dog wear business, Beau Neuveau, from St. Petersburg, FL, to to Redmond last year.
Ehlers shopped for locations along the West Coast last year partly to save on shipping costs. Her products are manufactured in China, then shipped to her warehouse to be distributed to her customers thoughout the World.
... The cost of doing business in Central Oregon, compared to other places on her list (with California crossed out) was "about a wash", she said, which left her to be sold on Central Oregon's beauty and recreation.
It's been tough to assemble even a small staff of reliable employees, Ehlers said -- the biggest downside she's found in the region -- and she's renting a home in Bend, rather than buying in what she considers a high-priced housing market."
Now, I quote the word "warehouse" because that's what the piece says, but clearly the correct term is "house". Her warehouse is probably her kitchen, basement, or possibly a 5'X5' storage space, running her $20/mo. And the quote 'Ehlers shopped for locations along the West Coast', entailed this woman submitting rental applications to untold property managers, after telling them she has 2,000 cats & will be running a meth lab out of the thing. Someone in Bend accepted.
Again, we have multiple RINGING ENDORSEMENTS about why a divorcee running a part-time "business" has slapped a restraining order on her stalker husband, threw all her work-in-progress , inventory, bookkeeping records, office supplies, and clothes into 1 cardboard box, threw it in the back of a 1978 Mercury Grand Marquis rust bucket, drove like hell across the country to butt-f--k Egypt and took up residence in a vast rental MANSION in Bend: Because of the difficulty in hiring helper monkies that aren't smoking meth on the job 24/7 and sky high home prices.
And true to form, she characterized Bends cost of doing business as ON PAR with California, a place she immediately CROSSED OFF her list. It was "a wash", so she busted out a dartboard, threw a dart, chose Oregon, and probably aborted a hysterical pregnancy while she was at it.
Again, when her leather dog collar business starts issuing shares, I will probably NOT go all in.
Yes, David Fisher has put together yet another ROCK SOLID piece on why the vast hordes of this countries business behemoths are flocking to Central Oregon: Our costs are on par with the highest cost state in America (California), and hiring meth-smokers is dead easy.
Now, there is another piece, this time by Jeff McDonald in he Jan 2 Bulletin, that really shows why you should relocate here, "PV Powered seeks room to grow. Solar company would like to stay in Bend, but time, location pose challenge".
You should know IMMEDIATELY what is going on, simply by reading the title: PV Powered execs have begun to BLACKMAIL Bend city councilors, and are threatening to move if their operation are not subsidized ad infinitum. That's all.
They simply have observed that whenever ANYONE presents Bend City Council with some sort of ultimatum, be it BAT buses, Les Schwab's hostile takeover of Juniper Ridge, or mob-style extortion by Knife River for 1,000% markup gimp-ramps, that City Council folds like Grama on laundry day. That's ALL you have to do to have local government offer to GIVE YOU LAND (Lava Court Apartments), or waive all taxes until the year 3000 (everyone else).
That's all this piece is: straight blackmail against borderline retards. Now you might think that PV Powered put together some elaborate scheme to pull one over on the city. Hell no! They are actually putting it out there that they are looking at the old Workensport location, possibly the stupidest location in Central Oregon you could possibly move an industrial company. Again, we find EDCO at the source of this small-scale ripoff:
"Economic Development for Central Oregon, whose mission includes recruiting new businesses to the area and retaining existing ones, has been working with the Oregon Economic and Community Development Department and the city of Bend to keep PV Powered in Central Oregon."
Again, this is straight extortion, and it will most likely succeed. Our city is run by retards who have no problem spending $1,000,000 to keep a single unskilled minimum wage job in Bend. All you have to do is threaten to leave within earshot of Roger Lee, and they will practically dump money on your doorstep.
Unbelievable.
These "flowery" pieces, jammed packed with lies and ludicrious headlines, make me wonder if there is not ENORMOUS pressure being put on the Bulletin to produce ALL IS WELL IN CENTRAL OREGON news pieces. Look at the graphs above. Things ARE NOT WELL. Things are imploding, and are already at levels that can only evince EXTREME ALARM. 74 sales in December? My God, you'd have to go back to the Stone Age to find monthly sales that low. And that's exactly what they said about Novembers number, which was 91.
Folks, these are PUMP-N-DUMP pieces. The Big Boys KNOW it's over & are pumping every idiot in sight to get them to buy their imploding dogs. That's what these & many other pieces are about.
If you DID NOT buy into the out-of-control Ponzi Scheme that was Central Oregon real estate for the past 3 years, and acted responsibly, then now is the time to bask in the horror. It may get close to as good as it got in the past 3 years (about 30 years from now), but it will NEVER get as bad as it is going to get in the next 5-10 years. We are RIGHT NOW in the teeth of a cascading implosion that will change the face of this place FOREVER.
If you DID buy into the insanity and doubled down on red for the 13th time & lost, then it is Coyote Ugly Time. It's time to remove the beer goggles, focus, and look over at the mega-skank that is lying on your arm.
Bend Housing Market, as seen through Beer Goggles, circa 2005
Yeah, it's time to start ta chewing your arm off. See, what looked like this in 2005 when you bought it...
Your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th home in Bend, circa 2005
... now, in 2008 without your financial beer goggles, looks like this:
Same homes, circa 2008
What you got to do now, is clear: Start ta chewin'.
You think that skank is going to get better with age? She ain't. You made the sad, sad mistake of putting on the real estate beer goggles, against the onslaught of advice by those that advised VIGOROUSLY AGAINST IT, but you had to do it anyway, and now you got a beer-goggled skank, but probably more like 5 or 6 coyote uglies lying on your arm. Now, I have every right to lambast you, say I told you so, and give you detailed instructions on what you gotta do, but a picture is worth 1,000 words:
Bend home flipper chews his way out of 4-way with meth shacks bought with $0 down & $0 income
Bitch, it is time to start chewin'! You gotta drop price till at least 2 limbs fall plum off. Seriously. When have you ever woke up to Coyote Ass Ugly, and things got BETTER over time? When? NEVER, that's when. This is NOT going to get better. It is getting worse geometrically AS WE SPEAK. The time to get out with your diginity intact is long gone. It is time to face facts. You got your motherf--kin arm caught in the corn thresher cuz you a greedy-ass bitch who can't think for themself, and now your stupid ass has to start chewin', and ain't nobody going to feel bad for you who DID NOT put their greedy ass arm in the corn thresher.
YOU JUST STUPID, OK? Now you gotta pay. So shut the f--k up, and drop price until you get some sort of low-grade brain damage, cuz it's either going to happen now, or later. And it sure as hell ain't going to get better.
EVER.
The Bulletin is a prime conspirator in Boss Hogg's little pump-n-dump scheme, but sadly it is too late for that, as the idiotic RiverWild "auction" proved. NO ONE is buying the Kool-Aid anymore. The ass-ugly imploding nature of Bend's RE market is clearly visible in high-relief for all to see, and no amount of bulls--t shoveled into the locals gullets will change that. They've done it a million times before to good effect, and the Bulletin still believes that we can "market our way out of anything", but obviously we cannot. IT IS OVER.
Keep your eye on Months Of Inventory: THAT will tell you when it's over. When we get a 3 month average below 6, IT IS OVER & YOU CAN BUY. Until then, the carnage will continue, and if you own one or more meth-cracker ass cracker shacks, ain't nothing going to stop the pain, UNTIL YOU START TA CHEWING, and roll your stupid ass away from them coyote ugly bitches you call homes.
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Best Burrito in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Burrito in Bend OregonBack in August of 06 I spent a week's worth of lunches trying a few different burritos around Bend. Since then I have been able to visit and write up a post on Los Jalapenos, Tortillaria Reyes, El Caporal (chicken burrito this time), The Taco Stand, and Taco Del Mar.
Of all these burritos, I can say that it was tough to pick a winner for Best Burrito in Bend Oregon. I really like the speed, price, and quality of the burrito at the Taco Stand and the quick meal at Taco Del Mar after shopping at Best Buy is a great bite for lunch. It really depends on what you want out of your burrito to determine where the best one is. If I'm in the car or on the go, you dont want to deal with a knife and fork so I'd recommend Longboard Louis or Tortillaria Reyes.
But when you weigh the quality and the price, the value you get from El Caporal is unbeatable. Chips and salsa are complimentary, you get rice, beans, and an enchilada style chicken burrito for $8.25. El Caporal's Chicken Burrito is my choice for the Best Burrito in Bend Oregon.
El Caporal West
744 NW Bond Street
Downtown Bend, Oregon
541-322-8916
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon
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Best Lunch in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Lunch in Bend OregonThere are so many places that you can grab a great lunch meal in Bend. What I look for in a good lunch is speed, quality, and value. I have a job...technically and need to get food quickly from time to time. But I don't want fast food. I want good food in a timely manner.
I like the Downtowner a great deal for a sandwich and some soup but I can't stand the seating situation in there. Especially when a group behind me and my friends decides to snag a seat before they've ordered. I hate this soooo much. You're throwing off the order of things!
Look, you are at the back of the line, you send your friend/kid/significant other to go grab a table. This is soooo wrong. What about the people in front of you? They are waiting to order and then grab a table. So what if by the time they order there are not any tables? Their food arrives and they have no where to sit....yet you haven't even ordered yet and you have a table waiting for you. We live in a society people!! Take your seat after you order and all will run smoothly as it should.
For my money, the Best Lunch in Bend Oregon is found at Toomies. For only $5.95 you get a small green salad with some peanut sauce, rice, phad thai, and whatever your main selection is. I always go for the chicken red curry with some extra spice to it. I ask for three stars over the normal two. I think it means they throw in an extra dash of crushed reds but whatever, it's hot.
Toomies Thai Restaurant
119 NW Minnesota
Bend, OR 97701
541-388-5590
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon
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Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Happy Hour in Bend OregonI love Happy Hour cause I like to sample different dishes for a cheaper price. Basically I want to gorge myself for as cheap as possible without sacrificing quality. Plus Happy Hour is a great way to end the work day and start your evening. You can eat just a light snack or make it an early dinner, have a nice drink at a discounted price, and unwind. I wish everyday was Happy Hour all day.
Some of my favorite Happy Hour locations are Merenda's and Kanpai. Kanpai is awesome for an early meal and some sushi for a reduced price until 5:30. The Hamachi Kama is a great deal and goes well with some $4 hot sake. I still end up spending a bunch of money cause we order quite a bit off the Happy Hour menu.
But my favorite place to go for Happy Hour is the newly redesigned Blacksmith Restaurant. The bar menu rocks with items like lobster corn dogs, Kobe beef burgers, gourmet hot dogs, ceviche of the day, and so on all for affordable prices. Plus they have 12 beers on tap that only cost $3. It's my new hang out.
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon - Blacksmith Restaurant.
Blacksmith restaurant
211 NW Greenwood Ave,
Bend, Oregon 97701
541.318.0588
[www.bendblacksmith.com]
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon
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Best Pizza in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Pizza in Bend OregonI absolutely love Pizza. Next to Mexican cuisine, pizza is my favorite meal. We often get Papa Murphy's since I want my crust cooked, not soggy like many of the chain delivery places make them. I also like the price at Papa Murphy's but sometimes you're already at the house and don't want to go out or you're too lazy to cook up your own pie.
Sometimes I want a pizza delivered or drive and pick one up that's already cooked and ready to go. For lunch my favorite is grabbing a slice from Cibellis and its quite inexpensive. $2.75 for a HUGE slice of pepperoni that's large enough to fill you up.
But my favorite pizza in Bend and the winner of the Best Pizza in Bend Oregon award goes to Pizza Mondo's Run Little Piggy.
Pizza Mondo
811 NW Wall St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 330-9093
[www.pizzamondobend.com]
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon -
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Phad Thai in Bend OregonI've actually written up a little ditty on the Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon before so I'll just add in the newbie - Typhoon. We had the Crab Phad Thai not too long ago and it was really good. But was it good enough to win? No.
The Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon is SOBA Asian Bistro....BUT you HAVE to get extra peanut sauce on the side.
SOBA Asian Bistro
945 NW Bond Street
Bend, OR 97701
Ph: 541.318.1535
[www.eatsoba.com]
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon -
Best Fries in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Fries in Bend OregonI've had fries all over Bend Oregon and for me, the fries really compliment your meal. The fries I had on my visit to JC's Bar and Grill were probably my least favorite. The oil needed to be changed in a bad way. The sweet potato fries at CHOW were very tasty, just a little inconsistent on the texture.
The special sauce at Dandy's makes up for their fries being a little on the mushy side. The shoestring fries at The Hottest Dog compliment their weiners nicely. And I know I'm going to upset some people but I do NOT like the "chili" fries from Longboard Louis.
When Deschutes is making their own fries, they are hard to beat and with their own mustard, should probably win for best fries in Bend Oregon.
But that honor is going to Merenda's pommes frites. They are top shelf and have the best presentation for fries.
Merenda Restaurant
900 NW Wall St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 330-2304
[www.merendarestaurant.com]
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon
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Best Ribs in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Ribs in Bend OregonNote that this is NOT the category for Best BBQ which there is only one BBQ place in town ... Baldy's. There is NOT another BBQ restaurant in town. Just Baldy's. Trust me. So this category is all about the rib.
There are some great ribs out there at places like Deschutes, Marz, Kona Mixed Plate, and from what I hear, Zydeco. But can any of them in all their different styles of ribs compete with Baldy? His ribs are awesome and his sauce is good enough that my family received bottles of it for Christmas (not their only gift, I'm cheap but not that cheap).
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon goes to Baldy's
Baldy's Barbeque
235 SW Century Dr
Bend, OR 97702
(541) 385-7427
385-Ribs
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon -
Best Burger in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Burger in Bend OregonI absolutely love a Bacon Cheeseburger and any place that does a solid burger, wins a place in my heart. I've had burgers all over Bend and of course the best burgers come from the places that specialize in such. So all the best of lists always have the same two mentioned....Pilot Butte and Dandys. We'll, I'm not much different. The only difference for me is that I rarely make it to Pilot Butte that much.
There are many places in Bend that will serve up a mean burger. Pilot Butte obviously, Village Grill, Cheerleaders, Deschutes with their hand made buns, Jake's Diner with the Megaburger, McKay's Cottage with the $10 burger, but for me, the Best Burger in Bend Oregon comes from Dandy's Drive-In.
My favorite part of the post I wrote about Dandy's is:
"If you go to Dandy's Drive-In and you're driving your F25000 Diesel Mac Truck Hemi 2x4 V89, do me a favor and shut your stupid engine off. People like to have their windows down but no, you need to keep your nasty engine running right next to me for 15 minutes while you chit chat on your old cellular telephone while waiting for your chocolate malt to take back to your double wide. I don't like you. But I do like the Grand Dandy."
The Grand Dandy is insanely good. Get it.
Dandy's Drive-In
1334 Ne 3rd St
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-6141
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon -
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Hot Wings in Bend OregonIf a restaurant that I visit has Hot Wings on the menu, I have to try them. I love hot wings. I love spicy chicken in general but hot wings are just awesome. I've tried wings in all sorts of places in Bend such as Hardy's, Baldy's, Applebees, BBC's, Deschutes, Cascade Lakes Lodge, Outback, Red Robin, and Village Grill.
I can't find a place in town that consistently serves the flats or wingettes instead of just the drumettes. I like the flats much better and they tend not to have any weird pieces or chewy bits like the mini drumsticks do. But I'll take what I can get.
Hardy's has a combination of drumsticks and flats and also sport the hottest wings I've ever had in Bend. I've had hotter and I have a great story about it that I'll share some time. But from my sampling of the wings in Bend, Hardy's isn't even in my top three.
I love the traditional "Franks Red Hot" style of hot wing sauce on my wings. I don't need the coke sauce or the crazy thai peanut sauce. Just give me the normal hot sauce or possibly a honey BBQ from time to time to mix it up.
Baldy's made my list in third place for the best wings in Bend Oregon but I can't put them any higher. Their wings are tender, the sauce is great, the breading is great, they're almost too good that I think there is something shady going on. I'm disappointed that Baldy's will no longer let me split the wings amongst the BBQ and Hot. The wife likes BBQ, I like hot. let me split the order man.
BBC or Bend Brewing Company has my favorite hot wing sauce in all of Bend. Unfortunately the consistency is not there. Some times the wings are drenched in sauce and are cooked to perfection, other times they can be dry and overcooked. If they were more consistent, I would have chosen the BBC as top honors.
The award of Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon goes to Deschutes Brewery. Deschutes has the most consistent and an amazing flavor to their hot wings. I'll get a half order of wings on almost every visit. I look forward to eating them again and again.
Deschutes Beer Pub
1044 NW Bond Street, between Franklin and Greenwood
Bend, OR 97701
541-382-9242
[www.deschutesbrewery.com]
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon -
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon - 2007
» Bend Oregon RestaurantBest Breakfast in Bend OregonBreakfast is not a big priority for me but when I do go out to eat, I want either a great omelet or some awesome biscuits and gravy. I know that many will say Victorian Cafe or Alpen Glow and I'm sure you have your reasons. I can agree that the Victorian Cafe is a great place to eat breakfast and they have a full bar. The price is fair for breakfast, drinks I found a bit high priced and on weekends, it's going to be a wait.
Alpen Glow has great quality and freshness to their ingredients but the portions are small and the price is too high for me.
The huge portions, great food, little wait, and huge portions are some of the reasons that my favorite breakfast in Bend Oregon is Jake's Diner.
Jake's Diner
2210 NE Highway 20 (Behind the A&W and the East side Liquor Store)
Bend, OR 97701
(541) 382-0118
[jakesdiner.blogspot.com]
Hours:
5:30AM to 9PM Monday through Saturday
5:30AM to 7PM on Sundays
Best Breakfast in Bend Oregon
Best Hot Wings in Bend Oregon
Best Burger in Bend Oregon
Best Happy Hour in Bend Oregon
Best French Fries in Bend Oregon
Best Burrito in Bend Oregon
Best Lunch in Bend Oregon
Best Pizza in Bend Oregon
Best Phad Thai in Bend Oregon
Best Ribs in Bend Oregon
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12:37
Happy New Year!
» The Christensons
Well folks, here's to good ole 2007! This next year should be a goody!
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7:00
A Prayer for Bend
» Bend Bubble 2Dear little tiny Baby Jeebus,
Thank you for blessing Bend with your bountiful love & goodness. Thank you Baby Jeebus for keeping medians high and volumes low so that Realtors don't have to work so hard.
With the blessings out of the way, I would like to ask, itty bitty tiny Baby Jeebus, that you exercise your religious powers and smite the following intolerable bulls--t:
First, little tiny Jeebus, please smite all the motherf--kers that park in handicapped spots who can walk just fine. Please smite them with a car key up the side of their Cali-plated Escalade. And Baby Jeebus, smite the bitches who wait forever in parking lots for other people to leave parking spots, blocking all possible forward motion, so that they might not have to walk an extra 10 feet. Smite the f--kers who leave their shopping cart in driving lanes. Smite the dumbs--ts who frantically climb over people to buy stupid video game consoles. Smite the dog owners who let their motherf--king dogs bark all night, and s--t in the park & don't clean it up. Bless you Baby Jeebus for smiting the f--k out of the dogs & owners who are in constant violation of this simple human decency. In general, tiny Baby Jeebus, smite selfish rude assholes, and smite 'em good.
Little tiny Baby Jeebus, please smite all lawyers. Thank you for smiting Africa with John "Hum-Job" Hummell, asshole lawyer extraordinaire, and please itty bitty Jeebus, give that cocksucker The AIDs or some other bodily-fluid transmitted disease he gets from butt-banging some underaged Afrikaner. But little bitty Baby Jeebus, please smite every motherf--kin lawyer with the AIDs & gonorrhea. I hate those f--kers & they should all die.
And little, tiny Baby Jeebus, smite all the fake-tittied, big-haired Cali skanks that have ever come to Bend. Smite these bitches, and smite their plastic surgeon as well. Smite their augmentation procedures, and little Baby Jeebus, smite their silicon implants with weak spots that burst while they are being titty-banged. Old bitches that look like Frankenstein prostitutes are an abomination, and we both know it. Little Baby Jeebus, it'll simply be easier if you smite every female Realtor in and around Bend, because they are all sleazy ex-Cali-bangers trying to look 20 while they 95. Please make them die, Baby Jeebus.
And Baby Jeebus, thank you for smiting The Plaza, The Shire, and other completely f--ked-up retard projects. But Baby Jeebus, I ask you to smite the motherf--kers who lent them the money as well. Smite everyone up the financial chain responsible. F--kers need to learn some fiscal responsibility, itty bitty baby Jeebus. But Baby Jeebus, I just ask that you not smite Patty Moss, Cascade Bancorp's CEO. It is pretty clear, little Baby Jeebus, that you done smote her ass with an ugly stick unmerciful.
Holy S--t, stop smiting this woman Baby Jeebus!
And in a related non-smiting, for the love of Christ baby Jeebus, do not smite Hillary anymore either.
Little Baby Jeebus, please discontinue the smiting of this woman.
And we thank you Baby Jeebus, for beginning this macro-smiting of all the greedy-ass builders, Realtors, crooked mortgage brokers, and every other get-rich-quick motherf--ker that has moved to Bend solely to make a quick buck. But Baby Jeebus, please reserve a special smiting for Randy Sebastian, hypocritical homo-erotic mega-fag. Please, itty bitty Jeebus, smite this f--ker with the flesh-eating virus, so they we never again have to endure his smug motherf--king crossed arm bulls--t. Please smite Sebastian, Ron Garzini, Ray Kuratek, Jeff Holzman, Larry Craig, and maybe some other in-the-closet Republican faggots, by getting them all caught in a public toilet giving each other the circle jerk. Let Larry Craig be caught looking at Garzini's asshole, Garzini looking at Kuratek's asshole, Kuratek looking at Holzman's asshole, Holzman looking at Sebastians asshole, and Sebastian looking at plans for Shevlin Reserve, which we all know is The Asshole of Bend.
And itty, bitty precious Baby Jeebus, please smite the motherf--kin road between Bend & the Cali border. Smite every North-bound motherf--ker on this road with disease, pestilence, and a shotgun blast to the head from some gun-toting LaPine "Minutemen", charged with killing the s--t outta Cali bangers come to Bend & f--k it up. Please give Cali-bangers the knowledge that they are to Bend, as the US is to Iraq: Well-meaning selfish f--knuts that are wrecking the place by imposing their will on a blood-thirsty insurgent population that will slaughter their ass at all costs to get rid of them. Please little itty bitty precious Baby Jeebus, smite Cali-bangers, George Bush, fake tittied Realtors, and the US Army in one big motherf--king smiting to give us victims some measure of your intolerance, hatred, and cruel irony in wiping out unwanted invaders.
Little tiny, itty bitty Baby Jeebus, please smite the big box retail invasion of Central Oregon as well. Smite Trader Joes, if only so they'll close & take at least a few consumerist freak Cali's with them. Smite the Porsche dealer, the Mercedes dealer, and Pronghorn. Smite all upscale restaurants, like Deep and the lame ass Merenda. Smite all upscale consumerist bulls--t, which as you know full well itty bitty Jeebus, would be the smiting of 95% of Bend. Please baby Jeebus, smite the consumerist nightmare that is America.
And little tiny, itty bitty Baby Jeebus, despite the f--ker cutting & pasting some of the same bulls--t over & over & over, do not smite BendBust. Only smite him a little when he uses the words "cunt" or "twat", or posts a link to technicolor hemorrhoids. Which of course means he would receive the All Time Mega-Smoting of the Universe. If he does it again, for the love of Christ, itty bitty Jeebus, just shove a shotgun up that cunt's twat, and pull the trigger. And little precious Baby Jeebus, do not smite Timmy. Or Bruce. Or BendBB, despite the fact that he likes to chain his nipple rings up to a paint-shaker. He's an OK guy Baby Jeebus, and I hope that you let me throw him a burrito before the years out. He's lost $200K of the $220K that he paid for his westside sugar shack, and is keeping a stiff upper lip about it. Baby Jeebus, just so you know him when you see him and will avoid smiting his ass, here is a picture of BendBB laughing uncontrollably at the funniest joke he's ever heard:
BendBB: "A girl from Nantucket. That's a good one. I cannot stop laughing."
Speaking of whacko's you can smite on an individual basis, please smite everyone on Bend City Counsel... AGAIN. You done smote 'em once it's clear, as they are the most incompetent pack of dumbf--ks to ever walk this planet. But please, just one little extra bit of smiting in 2008, so that Bend is striken with some of the most f--ked up s--t ever, like ramps for gimps that have 1,000% markup, and even then it ain't to code.
And smite Cushman & Tebbs, pictured here:
Cushman & Tebbs (aka Crockett & Tubbs) right after a closing. Tebbs is the black dude.
Little tiny Baby Jeebus, this ain't exactly Cushman & Tebbs, but if they were dudes, this is exactly what they'd look like. So mow the 2 f--kers down whenever you have a minute.
And little, itty, bitty, tiny Baby Jeebus, smite the s--t out of The Bend Bulletin, Cascade Business Buttf--kers, and KTVZ. Smite David Fisher & Anna Sowa, and smite everyone on KTVZ, even the hot chicks, for all those heinous self-serving bio pieces where we have to endure total bulls--t like Christian Boris claiming he spends his days in the Cascades when we know full well that metrosexual f--ker spends his nights watching gay porn. And little Baby Jeebus even smite the mega-hot Molly Hendrickson, and quasi-weird-hot Nina Mehlhaf for even participating in KTVZ's tired as s--t self-serving "We're Local, so don't watch KOHD, and we were first in hi-def so try to forget the 'HD' part of KOHD, we need to keep this monopoly so we can cycle through as many hot-chicks as possible paying them rock ass bottom wages, cuz the station manager is a motherf--kin pervert" bio pieces. Please Baby Jeebus, smite that s--t hard. And baby Jeebus, don't forget to smite the Bulletin for only putting RE pieces in the online version of the paper on the way up, and worthless ass bulls--t pieces online now that we've busted.
And speaking of bulls--t pieces, thank you Baby Jeebus for the Bulletin piece basically printing that this place is a deluded bunch of drug-addicts, by printing this quote from Sandy Henderson, new head of the perennial money-losing BendFilm:
'You know what, there’s got to be Prozac or something in the water, because everybody is happy.’
It's called KOOL-AID Sandy, and it will soon render your mind whithered & useless. And thank you baby Jeebus for this series of idiotic quotes from the same piece:
"“The brilliant thing about L.A. is you see a lot of people at the top of their game,” Henderson says. “You see the very best of it, and you see the worst."“My question was,” says Bailey, 'Are you too big for BendFilm?’ Given her background, it was like, 'Wow, this person is such a heavy hitter. This person has been in the big leagues. Does she come with a heft that would just overwhelm anyone here in town?’
He answers his own question: “It’s clear that’s not her personality. She doesn’t bring an L.A. personality to the job.”
“Yeah, that’s the best thing I can say about her,” said Bailey. “She doesn’t have an L.A. personality.”
“She came strolling right up to me and said, 'You don’t know me, but I’m going to be on the selections committee next year, because I worked in L.A., and I know film, and I want to be involved in BendFilm.’ I was like, 'Wow, who are you?’”Again, Baby Jeebus, smite the living f--k out of self-loathing Californians who come here to "get away from Cali-assholes & that whole Cali thing", yet the second they're here they want Central Oregon to be a carbon-copy filled with a rude-ass pack of cocksucking cannibals, just like where they came from. Please baby Jeebus, kill these L.A. glorifying - L.A. hating conflicted motherf--kers. No, scratch that Baby Jeebus: Disfigure the f--kers first, then kill them.
And little Baby Jeebus, for the love of Christ, tell me why The Bulletin has turned into some sort of f--ked-up match-making whorehouse, with quotes like this?
In 1987, she moved to the U.S. She would become a legal resident and settle in Los Angeles, “with the singular goal of being involved in film, because it’s always been my passion. It’s always been my first love,” says Henderson, who incidentally is not involved in a long-term relationship.
Baby Jeebus, please tell me why the f--k the marital status of some clearly lesbian Cali-bitch who has just been promoted from selling radio ad time to running a chronic money-losing 2nd rate piece of crap film festival, is the least bit important? Please baby Jeebus, Why?
In closing baby Jeebus, we thank you for the Smitings Of 2008:- Medians at $280K, down $100K from the all-time highs at $380K in Sept 2006.
- Patty Moss losing her CEO job at Cracker-Ass Cracker Broke Cascade Bancorp.
- The foreclosure on The Plaza, and most likely The Shire, The Garag-mahol & Tuscany Arctic Tropical Pines
- Mike Hollern for his double-dipping of bulls--t with his anti-clothesline Nazification of Awbrey Butte, and his Fake Titty Auction
- Buena Vista homes rigged auction ripoff which resulted in 100% failure, which will be duplicated in their future Bend auction.
And little Baby Jeebus, please smite me & this blog, also. I'm an asshole & I know it. And itty, bitty Baby Jeebus, smite yourself & religion itself as well. What sort of f--ked up indoctrination & brainwashing causes more suffering, death, and hatred than religion, I'll never know. Thank you tiny Baby Jeebus for inventing religion as the most inhumane method of population thinning ever conceived.
And Baby Jeebus, smite our f--kin troops in Iraq. And Jesse Jackson. And smite the bastards that don't want it to be "Merry Christmas", but "Happy Holidays" turning this country into some sort of Generic Religion-Agnostic Zone, f--k you & smite you in the ass. Go back to motherf--kin Syria, you Islamic f--kers. And smite all the black motherf--kers that blame Whitey for all their problems, and then while you're at it, smite Whitey. And smite liberals, conservatives, and for the love of Christ, just kill OJ. And Baby Jeebus, do not smite the Iran nuclear program, and please bring it back, so that we nuke those towel-head motherf--kers and we are dragged into a war-torn conflagration that drags our sorry ass down a peg. This country is f--ked up & needs to be kicked in the balls. With a nuke.
In your name we pray, itty bitty tiny precious Baby Jeebus, AMEN.
P.S. And Baby Jeebus, tell all the commenters here that Paul-doh be on vacation for awhile & might not post for a week or 2, and if they don't like it, smite those f--kers hard.
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Chow - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantCHOWMy stomach was empty and I was ready to chow down on some serious grub at the new CHOW restaurant located on Newport Avenue. Before going I had not heard from anyone if the place was any good, what type of food they serve or anything. So when I drove by and saw the massive metal CHOW sign and the big metal OPEN signs, I really thought I was going to dine on some serious grub like a West Side Jake's. Much to my surprise our waitress placed a tiny sandwich and small stack of fries before me. This isn't CHOW, it's more like SNACK or BITE.
The food was delicious, just tiny. For a big sucker like me, I need quantity and quality, not just quality. Seems that more and more restaurants in Bend are serving much smaller portions but their prices are increasing rapidly.
Currently CHOW is only offering breakfast and lunch from 7am - 2pm and appears to be geared more towards the healthy crowd than they are to a meat and potatoes guy like me. There are meat dishes like the roasted pork sandwich I had on my visit.
The sweet potatoe fries were ok, some were hella crispy and others were super soft...it was sort of weird. They didn't need or warrant any dipping sauces as the flavor was like a dessert of potaoes instead of french fries. The roasted pork was great...all 6 bites. $8
The wife selected from the breakfast menu and opted for the pumpkin waffle and a sausage patty. Waffle - $7, sausage - $3. Both were great and the sausage was pretty thick, but after $10, you'd think you'd be full. Let me get another waffle at least. Something.
The menu states that they will be offering dinners sometime in the future. I'll try to get back to try that menu, but for now, there are plenty of other options for breakfast and / or a quick, filling lunch on the West side. I know CHOW has just opened so maybe things will change as they get some more services under their belt. The service was awesome and our food came in a timely manner which is great for a restaurant just starting out....but those portions are just too small for the money in my opinion.
CHOW
1110 NW Newport Ave
Bend, OR 97701
541.728.0256
[www.chowbend.com]
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6:03
The Cult of Bend
» Bend Bubble 2After reading the Dec 18 piece in the Bulletin, "29 homes auctioned, not one sold" about the Buena Vista auction, you realize some pretty importsnt things not only about the Bend housing market, but the mindset of its participants. With respect to the 29 homes located in Bend:
"It was the only one of the company's nine sales area without a transaction."
This should tell you something: This was a rigged, sleazy auction ripoff, riddled with trap doors, but it STILL managed to attract a lot of people:
"The 2,209 people who swarmed into the Oregon Convention Center on Saturday and Sunday snapped up almost all of the unsold homes the Lake Oswego-based builder put up for sale in Portland's suburbs."
Now the Bend turnout was obviously lower, given the venue:
"Of the 385 people who registered to attend the auction and left their registrations at the Forum Meadows site in east Bend, only about 15% attended the actual auction in Portland..."
But this STILL MEANS about 60 people from Bend, interested enough to go register onsite, and then make the trek to Portland actually DID ATTEND. So this idea that because Bend had a fairly low turnout means that prices offered were NOT a reflection of market values for these homes is ludicrious. These were probably the most interested 60 people you could find, as they jumped through several hoops just to attend this event.
"Some of the Bend homes attracted bids, Higgins said, but none of the bids came close enough to meeting the reserve prices to justify finalizing sales on any of the homes, Higgins said."
First, David Fisher -- crack Bulletin reporter, Paul-doh said, we don't have to hear "Higgins said" twice in one sentence, Paul-doh said.
Second, you quickly see the completely FAKE nature of this auction revealed in this one sentence. Buena Vista SELECTIVELY picked & chose bids that it would accept:
"About 96 percent of the 141 homes that sold went for final bids below their reserve prices..."
This "auction" was a big sham by Buena Vista, as I said it was repeatedly. A TRUE AUCTION of a large number of properties in Bend would reveal what many on this blog have long known: Market clearing prices are FAR BELOW where they are today in Bend, that fact is EASY TO SEE in the volume numbers which have evaporated to DECADE lows; they may well be at ALL TIME PER CAPITA LOWS, as Bend was a far smaller town in 1997 when we last saw sales volumes this low.
The most interesting quote in the piece? With repsect to FEW the rejected bids that Buena Vista did receive on their Bend properties:
"'They were trying to steal them', Higgins said"
WHAT?
You hold an auction, that gets press coverage FAR & WIDE, you actually get a hard-core contingent of buyers to show up, they actually BID on these s--thole, shoddy tubs of s--t you call "homes", and you say they are trying to STEAL THEM?
This comes back to a point I've written about several times on here, despite it's unpopularity, the idea that Bend is a town that has been indoctrinated & brainwashed into thinking that WE ARE GOD'S CHOSEN PEOPLE. Not the "Jew Thing", but that as a town we are better than "The Rest". We deserve better. Hell, we deserve THE BEST, and by God, we'll wait until our dying day to get it. This is a mindset cultivated DAILY by ALL BEND MEDIA.
EVERYTHING IS BETTER IN BEND. ESPECIALLY THE PEOPLE. AND IF WE ARE GREAT, SO ARE OUR HOMES, AND THUSLY THEY CANNOT & WILL NOT GO DOWN IN PRICE. PERIOD.
You can see this mindset CLEARLY reflected in Buena Vistas spokesmans statement. EVERYWHERE else, free market values were largely accepted. But Bend? NO. The fair market value bids received here were akin TO THEFT.
First this is a primary function of ignorance about ONE THING:
The fair market value of homes in Bend has RUN AWAY to the downside SO QUICKLY that MANY market participants REFUSE TO ACCEPT THE REALITY OF IT.
The Bend home market has changed so radically & quickly, that people simply refuse to accept it. It's like the tulip mania: It ended so abruptly that people simply refused to accept that prices could in fact go down at all, and also that they could go down with such breathtaking rapidity that peoples entire life savings could be wiped out in minutes.
It's only taken a few months in Bends housing market, which is really the blink of an eye.
The carefully crafted and continuously reinforced Cult of Bend has become the primary driver in a media-fueled mania which clearly did NOT understand the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Oh, we're Gods Chosen people all right... and neither WILL WE, NOR SHOULD WE drop our prices ONE CENT! Realtors cannot get their clients to drop price to effect sales. Why? They've told them day in and day out that NEVER, EVER will Bend RE drop in price, and that ANY DROP is temporary & they should hold the line, and they'll make it through to the other side just fine. And that's what people are doing.
Even Buena Vista homes believes it.
"All our other properties, well we got bids at or close to reserve, so the market must be fair & we'll sell. But Bend? HELL NO! We got bids there that ARE TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! These don't even reflect anything close to fair market value. F--K THAT, we'll have another auction. Right, another 'auction', but this time it'll be in Bend. That'll set things right!"
Uh huh. You don't get it Buena Vista: Bend has returned to NORMAL BEND, after about 5-6 years of PATTY HEARST BEND, where everyone is continuously brainwashed into thinking 30% appreciation is their GOD GIVEN RIGHT. That's The Cult of Bend.
Normal Bend is a radically different place. People slog to low-pay jobs, WHEN THEY CAN GET JOBS, and they live in s--thole 800/sf dungheaps that are priced at a ridiculously high price given local wages. Where is that today? Down around $220K medians, AND SINKING.
Buena Vista GOT MARKET CLEARING BIDS, and they simply refused to accept them as REAL. They have a hell of a lot of company, as about 98% of all Bend home seller are doing the same thing. The Cult of Bend. Won't let them lower price. Been told TOO MANY TIMES TO HOLD TIGHT ON PRICE AT ALL COSTS, and now they are doing it.
I've said many times that we are just an "average place" (within 2 STD's of the mean), and took s--t from all sides from Lake Wobegoners that everything in Bend is 77 standard deviations above the mean, as they've heard on TV, radio, and seen peed in the snow 24/7 for 5 years straight. Great. Now we'll pay. We will DIE HERE on the slopes of Everest because of a STEADFAST refusal to accept our human frailties & faults.
We OVERPAID. OK? Not by a little, but by a WHOLE LOT. An amount so far beyond the markets clearing price that we may NEVER see last years prices again in our lifetimes.
What's going to be the epitaphs on the tombstone of Bends housing market?
"This is Bend Oregon and people want to live here"
"Prices have to go higher, because they can't go any lower"
"They want to live in a custom home. And they don't want to sacrifice quality. They want to be close to walking trails and the mountains. They're really mobile and they have a lot of money,"
"They were trying to steal them"
So let me join the chorus, with The Bulletin, Cascade Business Buttbangers, and KTVZ, and just say;
"KEEP YOUR PRICES HIGH. THIS IS BEND, AND THUSLY YOU ARE NOT JUST SPECIAL, BUT EXEMPT FROM MARKET REALITY. DON'T LET ANYONE STEAL YOUR KEYS TO THE GATES OF HEAVEN. YOU DESERVE & ULTIMATELY WILL RECEIVE 30-40% ANNUAL APPRECIATION ON YOUR BEND HOME. DON'T EVER GIVE IN TO THE IDEA THAT YOU WON'T. HOLD TIGHT. WE ARE GOD'S CHOSEN PEOPLE & HE WILL COME FOR US, AND DURING THE RAPTURE HE WILL BRING WITH HIM HOARDS OF SLOBBERINGLY AGGRESSIVE BUYERS WHO WILL MAKE YOU WHOLE. AMEN."
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7:00
Bend's Magic Number: 70
» Bend Bubble 2As I read about the demise of the Bend Mega-Bubble, I'm starting to notice the same number pop up over and over again, or at least damn close.
70
First, I saw a link posted by Timmy Tee over on Bend Bee Bee, House Prices in America by Median Price and Valuation. Besides having a pretty kick-butt interactive chart of overpriced areas all over the country, you can also find killer spreadsheet & PDF report. If you want long-term, good data on home prices in Bend, you cannot beat this National City page. Here's a really long-term chart of Bend medians:
Bend quarterly median home prices from Q1 - 1986 thru Q3 - 2007
Anyway, you can see that despite the fact that Bend is NO LONGER The Top Appreciating Housing Market in the US, we are STILL The Most Overpriced Housing Market by 70%. For those interested in the National City projection of "Fair Value", that 70% overvaluation figure is based on a $320,100 median(?) home price in Q3 of this year, which yields a Fair Price of $188,294.
That's a 50% haircut from the top of $380K in Sept 2006.
Moving on, I did my Google spreadsheet thing with Doug Farmers data this month, as usual. It can be characterized as pretty much The End Of The Real Estate Brokerage Business (and many other RE businesses) As We Know It. Here it is in graph form:
Monthly Dollar Volume Sold - All residential subtypes, Bend (Doug Farmer)
After the usual Winter slowdown in 2005-2006, volume went to a mega-spike high of $133,155, 206. That is a mind-boggling $491,218 AVG price, on 267 units sold. In November of this year we did 102 residential properties sold, at a still incredible $430,599. That's $43.9MM, knocking on a 70% reduction in sold dollar volume.
In a related stat, you can see from Doug's data that 303 units sold in Nov 2005, the earliest data point we have.
Residential Units SOLD in Bend
Again, we are sitting at 102 today, another near 70% decline.
Then there was the much ballyhooed "auction" by Brooks of their last 3 RiverWild condos, graciously highlighted As Usual in the Bulletin, How builders plan to face housing slide. We quickly find from the piece that it Never Really Was An Auction -- not surprising to any Bend resident with one wit of sentience, nothing IS EVER as it seems in this place.
Anyway, from the article we can see that when you run a Fake Auction, you will have Bad Results:
Frustrated by a season of sluggish sales, Brooks Resources Corp. put the last three unsold townhomes in its prime RiverWild subdivision at Mt. Bachelor Village up for auction Nov. 2.It was a bit of a bust. Only one of the three sold, and at the minimum bid — more than $200,000 below list price.
The other two attracted not a single offer.
That, for Central Oregon’s largest land developer, was a sign of the times.
Sales in all of Brooks’ most active developments — IronHorse in Prineville, Yarrow in Madras and NorthWest Crossing in Bend — have come in well below projections this year, Brooks CEO Mike Hollern noted Wednesday.
Only 1 of the 3 "auctioned" units sold, or about a 70% FAILURE RATE.
In the same piece we heard about the Buena Vista "auction" that took place yesterday. This sham was even more dubious than Brooks farce auction, so we can expect the results to not even approach a 70% failure rate. The only people that would possibly buy Buena Vista s--thole whacky shacks are out-of-state idiots who are totally ignorant of the market & probably haven't even laid eyes on these crappers.
I have. These are the "Yugo's" of Bend homes: Cheap, and for Good Reason. I would not buy these s--tholes At Any Price. Not even as rentals. These BV dung heaps are the quintessence of Gold Rush mentality built crap. From the same Bulletin piece:Buena Vista Custom Homes, a Lake Oswego-based company that billed itself as one of the nation’s fastest-growing builders when it moved into the Bend market in early 2006, announced Thursday that it will put all 200 of its unsold homes in Oregon up for auction next month, including 29 in Forum Meadows, its brand-new east-Bend subdivision.
“We were overaggressive and too slow to react to the changes in the market, and that has created an oversupply of finished homes,” Buena Vista President Roger Pollock said in a company press release. “Buyers are going to get amazing deals, but we simply have to reduce our inventory.”
Yes, they will be "Amazing Deals" all right. Amazingly CRAPPY. If you actually bought one of these S--tters, then I got a bridge to sell you.
Then there's the Home Builders. We can see from this 3 year chart, they have been decimated:
Sitting right at 70% DOWN. I actually think these stocks have been pounded so hard that they are getting pretty attractive on a valuation basis. A hell of a lot of Bad News has been baked into this industry. Coincidentally, -75% is about where the NASDAQ bottomed, post bubble.Ahhhh yes. Now we come back to Becky & The Massively Imploding White Elephant -- The Plaza. She stated that she had SOLD 14 of these condo Crappers, which come with an optional rocket-propelled casket/bed that fires deceased owners straight into the Deschutes River when there is no longer a heat-signature. Plus, the caskets come with Auto-Listing Technology, so when the underside of the casket gets wet, the condo unit is automatically listed on MLS. Timmy said that the toilets come with high-pressure bidets using turbines co-developed with The Bellagio & NASA engineers that not only cleans those hard to reach geezer-flaps, but stands the old bastard up after they blow a crap.
That's real convenience.
Anyway, after much hand-wringing & gnashing of teeth, we actually come to find that Becky HAS NOT sold 14 of these masoleum's, but instead sold 70% FEWER, or only 4. It's arguable whether 2 of these 4 were really "Sales" in the proper definition, as they had the rotting scent of Flipper Bait when they went back on the market less than 45 days after Becky schlocked them off on some True Believer.
Finally, to round out our Lucky Number 70 Review, I saw this post on BendBB, by "bruce"
Post subject: $100,000 30% haircut leads to PENDING sale
There is a house about a block away, very similar to the one I'm renting for $850/mo, that was recently vacated after being on the market for many months. Almost directly across from another newer and larger house that was vacated last summer, and is on at least its second listing.
But today I saw something I haven't seen in quite awhile: "PENDING"
It seems these guys decided it had to be sold, so according to the new flyer I just grabbed it was marked down $100,000, to $229,900, and the seller also would pay up to $5000 in closing costs.
I think a lot of these Siberian Desert Tract Flipper Bait Buyers will need to realize that they need to mark their current price to 70% of where it is now to even get lookers. This equates to 43% overvalued. But this is short term. There WILL be buyers at Todays' Bargain Prices that will seem insane when they realize that todays market is NOT 43% too high, it is in fact 70% overvalued per National City.
So, as is my way, I will make a few predictions based on Lucky Number 70, with my prototypical 50% coin-flipping accuracy:
First, CACB will ultimately do a high-dive into the concrete for -70% from it's all-time top of $32.
5 year chart, Cascade Bancorp
This would put our beloved local bank down at post-mega-bubble lows towards $10. I said many times in the past that I thought CACB was worth in the low to mid teens... back when "CACB Shorter" manned-up & shorted this loser. It's easy to see from the above chart that after a 50+% beating, that $10 isn't that much of a stretch. $12-13 is probably fair value, but post Bubble implosions know no bounds to their ferocity on the downside, so CACB may even see single digits.
Prediction #2: The Real Psycho Ward projects; The Plaza, The Shire, Tuscany Pines, and Tuscany Shire Plaza Condos at Tuscany Pines, A Tuscan Themed Homeless Shelter (don't worry, If You Build It, They Will Come -- as proven by the Fakeroney "Borealis" macro-scam, that offered IGLOO's as "residences"), will get whacked for 70%. My Lord, they actually had takers too, on that Borealis Scam:
KOHD reports:
12/14/07 Bend
If you're making future plans to stay at the Borealis Resort near Mt. Bachelor, you're in for a surprise. It doesn't exist.
Tim Neville and a friend made up the resort to further the controversy surrounding the endless construction of new developments in Bend. They sent out a mass email with a description, website and phone numbers. Neville says the website was clearly meant as a joke and those who are upset haven't done their research.
"You see immediately that these things are igloos that all of our homes are igloos and they come in 7 to 11 foot diameter configurations," says Neville.
Within a few hours after sending the email, Neville received more than a hundred responses ranging from laughter to outrage. He says that was the point. Some out of state companies even offered to market the new project.
This exemplifies the current thinking in Bend: Lunatic fringe, half baked idiotic RIPOFF mega-scams are The ONLY THING WE GOT. This guy was OFFERING IGLOO's, for the love of Christ, and he had LEGITIMATE offers to MARKET IT, no doubt from desperate Realtors who learned Photoshop over the past 2-3 months, since they ain't eating, and WILL DO ANYTHING for food, including fart Happy Birthday at Old Folks Homes.
Anyway, these SCHIZO-DRIVEN FANTASIES which are quickly imploding will most likely see the most brutal price declines, what I predict are 70% BEATINGS. Siberian Desert tract whacky shacks will get spanked for slightly less, maybe 60%. The average pre-2000 Bend cracker-ass cracker, meth-cooker, Aryan-race ziek-heil, jackboot wearing, goosestepping, standard-issue batten-board s--thole in DRW will probably get clocked for 50%. The same goes for gun-totting maniacs in La Pine. And Terrebonne. And Redmond too. And actually most of Bend, since we're mainly Niggra-hating Playa haters.
Yeah, I know, You Ain't... But Everyone Else Is. 2 words: Bend Buster. Yea, bitch. Mother f--ker is an entrenched deep-equity type that'll outlast you, me, Cali's and the motherf--kin roaches in a direct nuclear hit. Motherf--ker does NOT drive a Prius, takes rent in flatback crack ho fashion, and likes to blog when he drunk... so I guess he's a little more enlightened than he look.
Anyway, THAT motherf--ker will be the ONLY one buying property when all the rest of us have been shuffled off to The City, holed up in a cracker-ass cracker 800sf meth-cookin' s--thole, or have been unceremoniously shot into the Deschutes River. And that bitch will only buy at -70%.
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Caffeinating
» life is weird (and so am i)Several people have asked lately, "where do you go for coffee with free wifi?" My favorites are... Sparrow Bakery - Really tiny place gets crowded fast. Sometimes you have to share a table. Really really yummy snacks (ocean roll... ohhhhhh). Between the Covers - Cozy couch* in the back near the kitchen. Self-serve brewed coffee w/ donation. QUIET. Really nice staff. Thump - Cozy chairs* in the
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Dear Bendbroadband
» There's Always SomethingThank you for adding new channels but having to memorize the new channel list doesn't make this pregnant woman happy. At least we have the E! Channel now.
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7:00
This Blog Is A Big Pile Of S--t
» Bend Bubble 2I heard from a wise, wise man that S--t Is Just A Fart That Refused To Give Up.
If that's so, then I hope this blog has achieved some measure of it's purpose, and can be best portrayed as a Gigantic Pile Of S--t. One of my primary goals was to give SOME alternative to the "Lake Wobegon" Kool-Aid Daze puked forth by The Bulletin, and other Bend media outlets:
The Lake Wobegon effect is the human tendency to overestimate one's achievements and capabilities in relation to others. It is named for the fictional town of Lake Wobegon from the radio series A Prairie Home Companion, where, according to the presenter, Garrison Keillor, "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." In a similar way, a large majority of people claim to be above average; this phenomenon has been observed among drivers, CEOs, stock market analysts, college students, police officers and state education officials, among others. Experiments and surveys have repeatedly shown that most people believe that they possess attributes that are better or more desirable than average. The term is also used to describe a perceived tendency to treat children as "special" in order to boost their self-esteem, even though the children may only be average or even underperforming.
I don't know who posted this, but this is the best description yet of Bend. EVERYTHING here is 9 standard deviations above the mean... at least according to the local media.
And Bend is pretty sweet. It's great. Hell, living somewhere & declaring it a s--tpile is just pathological, unless you're trying to achieve some ulterior motive.... ahem. I still really like it here. It's just that we ain't THAT great. We are a solid, single STD above the mean, which is pretty damn good.
But we're pricing ourselves at $40/lb prime rib, when we're really $6.99 material. Bend simply isn't competitive anymore. How many times have you bought $1.99 ground beef in the past year, compared to $40/lb Ruths Chris hyper-premium prime rib? I'll bet not often. That's what's happening to Bend.
You can see it in Doug Farmers November numbers: 102 solds of ALL residential types in Bend in Nov. You can see in my Google spreadsheet, that this is The Lowest dollar volume EVER in Doug's data. This is DOWN almost 70% since June 2006 volume. Hyper-expensive goods ALWAYS sell in tiny volume, EVEN IF THEY'RE WORTH IT. "tucker" wrote in the comments that "82 sold Nov. 97".
I don't know where we're going, but at todays prices we will either become a FAR smaller town, or we'll suffer from a hyper-inflation induced depression. That's it. 70% of the commission dollars are gone from 1 1/2 years ago. Do you think a 70% revenue decline in what was far and away the largest industry in this town from 18 months ago is good?
Don't know if anyone's noticed, but Paul-doh been BUSY! Geez, never 2 seconds to post or comment. So I might take on a less "verbose" format in the future... like starting... NOW. At least I hope I will. And maybe a bit less ranting. It's NOT because of whacky comments asking for such, but simply that if people don't know to cut price by now, and they don't cut enough, their house simply won't sell. And I don't suppose a blog telling them to do so will convince them otherwise. So maybe I'll take Tim's advice & post shorter, but more frequent posts.
So for today, I saw this over on BendBB:
mookie: New changes to the lien at The Plaza as of today -- appears the buyers of the four sold units have been added to the claim against Becky and Tommy. Anyone got a better idea what this means than me?
Check the clerk's site: http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/Search.asp
Last name is "Harvest LLC" to access Plaza-related documents.
Then "Shot down in flames":
The way I read it, is the few unit owners have also been named on the construction claim of lien. So not only did they buy homes in a failed project, but now they are named in a lien. What a mess.
mookie: That's what it looks like to me as well...I guess the question is, is this typical? Legal?
It would seem like once Bex and Tom sell the unit, the buyer ought to be out of the way of any liens. But maybe things work differently in the condo world.
I'm not the most Plaza sympathetic guy out there, but I have a tough time understanding how a third party buyer would be on the hook for the seller's misdeeds.
Where's the bulletin board lawyer? Or maybe some all-purpose know-it-all like Timmy?
Bend Bear: Completely legal, and very common in situations like this. What it means for the four owner/flippers, is that they are no longer able to even list their units. This one is going to get a lot worse, and standing by my prediction of apartmenting these things once Umpqua gets them back. The funny thing is Umpqua also provided financing for the most expensive unit that is/was listed. They were bullish on that project as recent as September.
bottom feeder: Problem is, other than a handful of units, none are finished on the inside. So to turn it into an apartment building is going to take another $20K or so per unit. The Plaza will is the monument to Bend's previous RE exuberance.
It's really too bad. I've said 100X, that I think Becky is a sweet, personable gal, and it's too bad this had to happen to anyone.
But there are people out there, who are still buying into The Bend Dream, and I've beat the analogy to death that dying on the slopes of Everest is a Good Reason to TEMPER CONGENITAL OPTIMISM. If you DO NOT, they will haul you out. Becky is learning this.
Anyone have any further info on this Plaza problem?
"optimist" posted this:
Bend is a marvelous place to invest. I read all of this, and up until now I withheld my opinion.
I'm an active Bend investor, and have bought dozens of homes in Bend during 2005-2006. I paid over $100k down for each home. I paid less than $150/sqft. I always borrow at 5.5% for 15 years. My units are 100% occupied with positive cash flows.
The negativity I read here leads me to believe that you are all renters, and have no idea of how profitable it is to own real estate in Bend. The values are not going to go down, and people can only make money, and lots of money by buying Bend Real Estate.
There has never been a better time to buy a home in Bend.
Huh. Actually there is a way to ALMOST ALWAYS be cash flow positive, as optimist defines it here: Simply pay cash. If you ever get anything back, you are cash flow positive. Can you pay $1,000,000 for a house & rent it for $100/mo & be cash flow positive? Sure, simply pay $1,000,000 cash. Whether it's a Good Investment & the slightest bit competitive with what you could get elsewhere is a totally different question. But more power to you optimist, if it makes you feel better.
My own feeling is that YOU HAVE NOT BOUGHT DOZENS OF HOMES putting $100K down. You're a desperate Realtor who is starting to get gaunt & thin. If you've even bought one home in 2006 & have not tried to sell it, how do you KNOW if you've made money? Of course you don't. But the idea that ANYONE has bought DOZENS of homes in Bend putting down MILLIONS & feels SANGUINE about the future & WILL NOW BUY MORE, is assinine. Go out & list a home dude. We've all been inoculated from Kool-Aid poisoning here.
"bruce" has put up good stuff on Juniper Ridge at juniper-ridge.info. It's probably a better source of info than here. The guys doing a lot of work on the topic. I get whaled on for not posting JR news 24/7. I am not well enough informed to do so. There are better sources. BendBubble.blogspot.com is another.
OK, maybe that's enough for today. I'll TRY a mid-week post & see how she goes....
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Typhoon - Bend Oregon
» Bend Oregon RestaurantTyphoon - Bend OregonTyphoon is phinally here! With three Thai restaurants in Bend already, why is it that Bendites have been waiting eagerly at the windows of Typhoon for it to open like that lady in the old Mervins after Thanksgiving sale commercials with her face all pressed on the glass saying "Open, open, open" over and over again?
I have not been to any of the Typhoon restaurants and was dying to find out what all the hype was about. The wife and I tried to get some reservations for a Saturday night but nothing open until after 8:30...crazy. I like the early bird special so I can be in bed by 7:30 so we settled for Sunday.
We started off with the Nibble Platter appetizer which comes with Veggie Spring Rolls, Chicken Satay, Lemongrass Pork, Bags of Gold, Kra-thong Tong and Fried Wontons.
Veggie Spring Rolls - good, for being veggies...the wife liked them.
Chicken Satay - chicken on a stick, tender and flavorful, excellent when dipped in any of the three sauces
Lemongrass Pork - pork on a stick, tender and flavorful, excellent when dipped in any of the three sauces
Bags of Gold - first time having these and since they were also fried, quite good
Kra-thong Tong - like a mini chicken pot pie but with a tough sounding name KRA THONG TONG!!!
Fried Wontons - Its a fried wonton, what do you want, dip it and enjoyWe love the appetizers like this so you can get a sampling of a variety of dishes.
Next we went with the Crab Phad Thai off of the specials menu. I love shell fish and I am always looking for some great Phad Thai. Crab in the Phad Thai is something new for me but blended nicely and there was a good portion of crab in the noodles. The noodles were prepared perfectly and the ground peanuts were a nice touch.
Five-Spice Crispy Duck - Served with steamed buns, cinnamon plum sauce, green onions and cilantro. Now I don't get duck very often but the times I've had it, it was juicy and tender. I figure this duck would be the same but with a nice crispy skin.
The buns were nice and soft and we tried desperately to pull the duck apart to build little sandwiches. Unfortunately the duck was really dry and tough. We didnt say anything cause we didn't really know if this was how it was supposed to be prepared or not. Either way, we didn't care for it at all. It was like duck jerky.Next up was the Pineapple Curry. The pineapple gave the spicy curry this subtle sweetness which was a great addition.
We enjoyed our dinner very much aside from the overcooked duck. For the dishes above, a cup of tea (from their insanely huge menu of teas) and a couple Tsing Tao beers, we only spent $76. I thought we'd spend a lot more.After having such a good first experience for dinner, I wanted to try one of the other curry's and went back for lunch a couple days later. On this visit I tried the Panang Curry. Not so sweet and more peanutty, I was excited. But what I received was a small cup of curry for $9 and a scoop of rice.
I wish I put a spoon or something with this photo cause it was sooo small. You can see how one of the peppers is taking up half of the cup. I was hoping for about twice as much as I received for that price. It tasted great, but I left hungry.
Typhoon is great for dinner, but right now I'd rather go to Toomies for the lunch special over this cup o curry.
Typhoon! Bend
Franklin Crossing Building
550 NW Franklin Ave., Suite 148,
Bend, OR 97701
541-385-8885
[www.typhoonrestaurants.com]
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LandWatch on the UGB, Part I: Bigger or Better?
» Central Oregon LandwatchAre you interested in helping to creating a more livable Bend? How about encouraging public transit? Walkable neighborhoods? Affordable Housing? Sustainability? Smart Growth? If any of these topics concern you, then it's time you take an interest in Bend's Urban Growth Boundary expansion.
Why? Because this process is about far more than determining how many acres to bring in, or which acres to bring in, it's about setting growth policy. It's about determining what new growth will look like and how our community will take shape as it grows. How aggressively will Bend pursue the development of vacant or underutilized land within the City? What sort of housing mix will the city shoot for? What density will Bend grow at? What role does the Bend 2030 Vision play in all this? And for the goals and priorities the City does set, how does it propose to achieve them? All of this and more will be determined as part of the UGB expansion process.
If you find that surprising, you're probably not alone. Most of the discussion has focused on how many acres to bring in, whether to go east or west, what to do about Juniper Ridge, and so on. And anyway, this is all just "land use" right? What does "land use" really have to do with everyday life? The simple answer is: far more than you might think.
If you'd like to learn what we think about all this, about how we'd like to see Bend grow to better serve the needs of the entire community – and why we'd like to see you get involved alongside us – keep reading.
The Point Of It All
The State of Oregon requires cities to plan for twenty years worth of buildable land within their UGB. But it can't just be any land. Each city has to follow certain priorities for determining which land is in and which land is out, for avoiding the unnecessary conversion of irrigated agriculture, forest land, and sensitive environmental areas, and for growing in ways that will alleviate problems within existing city limits and be most cost effective over time.
As we've learned with this process, the rules are not hard and fast, but there is a definite aim involved. It's not about constraining growth, or "social engineering" as many have claimed, it's about guiding and shaping growth according to principles designed to ensure that as the community grows, it will be able to better serve the needs of its citizens and help create a community that people enjoy living in, while avoiding the unnecessary conversion of lands that are most valuable in their less-developed states. Oregon's approach to Urban Growth Boundaries may not be perfect, but if interpreted reasonably, and in consideration of the individual needs of each city, it can provide a solid blueprint for 20 years of quality growth.
Is Bigger Better?
As you may have heard, the Bend City Council – or the vocal majority of it – has decided that bigger is better and that it wants to bring in as many acres as possible. Why? For one thing, a large supply of land is supposed to bring land prices down. (More on that later) For another thing, it will provide flexibility, the councilors say, although admittedly I'm not really sure is meant by that other than that more land will be available to develop.
Does it really matter how big the UGB expansion is? That all depends. Ideally, UGBs in Oregon are designed to be long-term growth shaping tools, guiding growth away from some lands, and towards others over a 20-year timeframe. It's the job of more specific growth-shaping policies like annexation or infrastructure concurrency policies to encourage smart growth on a month-by-month or year-by-year basis. So if the city has a means of ensuring efficient land use within existing city limits – without upsetting existing neighborhoods, mind you – and of encouraging orderly, equitable, and well-principled growth on its urban periphery, then the importance of the UGB boundary as a short-term growth-shaping mechanism (and a poor one at that) is diminished.
But if the city lacks those sorts of policies, a large UGB presents a number of serious problems.
To understand why, we need travel no further back in time than 1998, when under then-City Manager Larry Patterson, the City decided to annex ALL the land within its existing UGB to make room for growth. The boom was coming, and people could see that, so an annexation at that point was entirely appropriate, but an annexation of such a large size, without any rhyme or reason for how all that land would be developed, created some serious problem – problems that can most easily be summarized by terms like unplanned growth or leap-frog residential sprawl. This in large part has led to the now more than $100 million deficit in funding for existing infrastructure and created the sea of single-family homes that is now East Bend.
True, part of the problem was in the way the City had set (or failed to set) Systems Development Charges, which could have helped pay for servicing much of that growth, but at the base of it is the fact that it is far more costly to provide infrastructure for unplanned growth than smart growth. Sprawl is expensive, it's as simple as that, and one way or another, the cost is born by the city's residents.
So if Bend opens up a massive UGB expansion without taking care to manage that growth then we're going to get more of the same.
Where would all the money come from to service such sprawl? That's a really good question. Most likely from astronomically high SDCs, which the building industry will no doubt fight tooth and nail, or from additional infrastructure bonds paid off the back of all the city residents. Not only shouldn't the existing residents of the city be asked to pay for this poorly planned growth, they probably won't agree to pay for it. This town is notoriously stingy on funding school bonds, gas tax increases, and other such "taxes" that go into the public good.
So with a powerful building lobby and a stingy tax-base, it seems unlikely that our infrastructure funding issues will go away any time soon, and in fact they may get quite a bit worse, making the financial prospects of continued sprawl particularly troubling.
What Should The City Do?
Simple. Well, kind of. If Bend is unwilling to adopt principles to guide land use efficiently – and so far this topic has yet to really be addressed – the best answer to our problems is a conservatively-sized UGB, a concept which seems to send builders, realtors, and their hired consultants into frenzies. Their primary concern, it seems, is that if we don't bring enough land in now, we may face a shortfall in the future – as we do at present, they say – and land prices will go through the roof. A larger expansion will cause prices to drop more than a smaller expansion, they say, and so as a result a smaller expansion makes it harder to provide affordable housing options.
But that's just not how it works. And there's several reasons for that. First of all – although the City does lack sufficient economic land at present, there is still a ton of vacant/underutilized residential land within the current UGB. In fact, according to the City's Buildable Lands Inventory, as of last year there was enough land to accommodate 13,000+ homes on existing residentially zoned land at a fairly low density without having to expand the UGB an inch. That's well over half our projected growth over the next twenty years. And while some think the amount of land actually available is less than that, even a conservative estimate suggests that Bend has enough housing for at least ten years. Does that sound like a supply problem to you?
The second reason why the "land shortage/price escalation" argument is not all that pertinent is that the City is planning on pursuing what's called "Urban Reserve" planning following the adoption of this UGB. What that means is that outside of its 20-year UGB, the City (in agreement with the County) will designate another 30 years worth of land for future growth, and stamp a 10-acre minimum zoning restriction on it. This is smart for a number of reasons, but what's most significant in this context is that once land around the UGB is zoned UR, it dramatically simplifies the UGB expansion process, and allows the city to proceed in a simple and sensible way that's difficult to challenge legally. The point is that with a UR in place (and Redmond's recent expansion is a great example of this) UGB expansions don't have to be huge and messy, they can be neat, and more importantly easily pursued on a more frequent basis. And what that means is that every five or so years, the City can easily re-evaluate its land needs, and if growth projections turn out to be low, it can easily add more land to accommodate before any sort of supply shortage is ever reached.
Lastly, in regards to a constrained land supply driving land and housing prices up, there is a tremendous amount of literature and common sense experience that suggests that a 20-year UGB does not present a constraint on growth, which is to say that it does not drive land prices appreciably higher. So it really doesn't matter whether we adopt a conservative expansion or a more generous one in this regard.
Now, if the City were left with a rapidly dwindling two or three year supply of land, we would most definitely be facing a supply constraint that would drive costs strongly upwards. But we're not even close to that yet, and Oregon's land use system is designed to avoid that problem. The bottom line is that in Oregon, prices are driven by demand, not by supply – the most immediate evidence of that being the fact although we're supposedly facing a supply shortage, housing prices are coming down almost as fast as they went up since the bubble burst. It's about demand.
All that being said, merely establishing a conservative UGB and letting the chips fall where they may isn't what we want. And in fairness, the City is looking at opportunities for increased density in its Central Area Plan, around neighborhood centers, on transit corridors, and also planning on implementing a strong annexation policy to discourage/avoid leap-frog development and help master-plan growth as it heads outwards.
But, at this point in time, and THIS IS THE KEY, the City is actively encouraging a large UGB and has put startlingly little thought into the policies that would implement smart growth both in the urban core and on the urban periphery. So what we're left with at present is a large UGB and little assurance that growth will be much different than it has been in the past.
In summary, it's the growth-management polices, affordable housing policies, and transit-oriented types of policies that we want to see, because these are the policies that determine how livable our city will be in twenty years. With the right policies in place, the size of the UGB matters far less than without.
In our next post we'll discuss which direction growth should go and why. Be sure to stay tuned.
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7:00
3 Steps To Selling ANY HOUSE, GUARANTEED!
» Bend Bubble 2I've had recent occasions to be in the company of Realtors lately. They are pissed. When they talk to each other, they are incredulous that no one is buying. No. That's really not it. They are incredulous that despite expending HUGE amounts of money on "event style" marketing, "Crazy Eddie" price cutting, and things they didn't even have to think about 1-2 years ago, that they ARE getting plenty of walk-thru traffic, and they are imploring every single warm body to make an offer, ANY OFFER, and that NO ONE is doing so. No One.
They are certainly NOT making offers at ask. Even dummies know that's insane. But no one is low-balling either. People are looking, or at least going through the motions or window shopping, but I saw an open house in an area where I was doing a job, and all the attending Realtors did was practically beg people to make an offer, ANYTHING. And after what seemed like 200 people... Nada.
This jives well with what my anecdotal observation of Black Friday downtown. Well, the best summary I have is, "Where the hell is everyone?". It was like a normal Tuesday, with a decent number of empty parking spaces. In fact it was more like a slow Tuesday. Sidewalks empty. No one that I saw was holding bags of goodies. And it was 11:30AM! Maybe Duncan can shed more light on this situation, but to my jaded eyes, downtown looked like a bust.
There were exceptions. Fred Meyer parking lots were overrun. But this whole theme of economic lockup seems to be taking hold around here. Not just a slowdown, but a complete seizing up of the economic gears; No one buying, no one selling, ANYTHING.
And what's just INSANE is these Realtors seemed totally BAFFLED as to the cause. They were actually MAD at people for not buying. Yes, they are mad. Like "we" owe them a living. But they do have to eat, after all they are almost human. So I thought I'd share a secret, 3 Golden Rules for selling ANY HOME, that I learned on a Mystical Odyssey that took me deep into a Burmese jungle for 7 years of complete fasting with Hindu & Buddhist monks chanting mantras to achieve Universal understanding.
Well, it was either that or I had 18 beers, got lost in the woods, stumbled on a frat-drunk-fest that had turned homo-erotic (and tell me what frat-drunk-fest does not go homo on ya?), and they tied me to a tree... and I've had to blot the rest from my mind after years of intense therapy.
So here are the three Inviolable rules for the Absolute Guaranteed Sale of Any Property, In Any Condition, In Any Location, No Matter How Horrendous. You should also remember this moment as the exact point in time when you learned all that is possible & necessary for effective real estate marketing.
Rule 1) Cut the price
Rule 2) Cut the price, but this time cut it to rock bottom, then cut it 10% more
Rule 3) Go to Rule 1
The Realtors I referred to earlier? They were only practicing Rule 1, and NOT Rule 2, and certainly not 3. Some implement a WEAK version of Rule 2, and then wonder why they do NOT SELL. If you don't cut it to ROCK BOTTOM, as stated clearly in the rule, then Rule 2 is superfluous. You could have gotten by with Rule 1 & 3! It's ALL THREE, or nothing.
Let me illustrate an analogous scenario about what has happened in the Bend real estate market over the past 3 years. OK, imagine you are at the local used car dealer. You are interested in a pile of crap jalopy. The salesman comes over, detecting a heat signature & a pulse, and begins his schtick.
Car Guy: "Hey, she's a beauty ain't she? I've seen 200 buyers today who were interested, but you, my friend, are the person I've been saving this little jewel for."
You: "I see you want $1,200."
Car Guy: "Oh no. That's wrong. We had someone with a pulse walk in, so we automatically boost the price 20%, whenever anyone shows any interest. So the price is $1,440."
You: "What!"
Car Guy: "Ooop, righteous indignation, that's another 20%. It's now $1,725."
You: "Are you insane?"
Car Guy: "Insults? Those are good for 10%! Now it's $1,900."
You: "But nothing's changed! It's the same piece of crap car it was 2 minutes ago, and you just keep raising the price for no reason."
Car Guy: "You're right! You cannot believe this business! Everytime ANYTHING happens, like a buyer even shows up, we raise the price! And what's great is all our competition does the same thing! It's UNBELIEVABLE!"
You: "Wow, can I do this?"
Car Guy: "Sure, anyone can. All you have to do is fog a mirror, and you can get into this schtick! It's NO LOSE! Everyone who gets in seems to make everyone else MORE MONEY! It's mind boggling!"
You: "Wow! Doesn't the value of the car even count for anything?"
Car Guy: "Of course not! The car itself is the most unimportant part of this gig, it really doesn't even matter if it runs or not. Technically, many of the heaps I sell aren't even really cars. It's awesome!"
You: "Dang, a lot of my friends think this is a total scam, domed to implode. But now that I see it from the inside, I can see how it really is the greatest business ever created. I'm in!"
And so it goes. Unfortunately Bend area Realtors have forgotten the fundamental premise that The Car Actually Matters & The Price Actually Matters. They are used to The Bubble Paradigm, where what you are selling & the price are irrelevant. (Actually this is not true: A HIGH price is BETTER, because period 1 CASH returns are HIGHER, the higher the price any given person pays. Hence it is good for everyone to pay the absolute HIGHEST PRICE POSSIBLE. This is know as "BUBBLE LOGIC".) Until they remember The Good Old Days, aka REALITY, they will wallow in a 100% DEAD MARKET.
Now, due to the side effects of the Bubble, loose lending, crooked appraisers & Realtors, prices actually went to many-fold where they would have gone on their own. This has produced a market best visualized as 2 bell curves: One is the bell-curve of sellers. They are so far off to the right that the intersection with the buyers bell curve, which is far, FAR to the left, is practically nil.
The observant among you will now quickly see the brilliance of The 3 Rules. The buyers bell curve is stuck FAR TO THE LEFT, lenders have seen to that. There simply is NO MORE MONEY for the bubble schtick, so the buyer bell curve WILL NOT BUDGE. The sellers curve must SIMPLY MOVE LEFT, ie PRICES MUST COME DOWN. That's it. That's all there is. Realtors who are CONFUSED as to why should review The 3 Rules.
IF IT AIN'T SELLING, THERE IS ONE AND ONLY ONE SOLUTION: CUT PRICE.
From Bloomberg: Housing Market's Stench Means Cut Price to SellNov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Raffles, festive balloons, open houses, car giveaways. Will any of these incentives sell houses? Not at the moment.
You don't have to be particularly creative in a market glutted with homes for sale. The painful reality is that homes are commodities. There are more than 4 million of them sitting out there unsold and more coming on the market every day due to foreclosures. If you really need to sell a house, price is the one lever that will move a property.
Almost everywhere your competition is abundant while buyers are waiting for prices to fall even more. U.S. existing-home prices are expected to drop almost 2 percent this year nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors, and are likely to fall further in areas oversaturated with homes for sale.
``Buyers just want price,'' says Mike Morgan, a Stuart, Florida-based lawyer, real-estate broker and consultant who researches property markets for hedge funds and financial institutions. ``Buyers have become educated and they can easily cut through the fluffy incentives.''
Morgan doesn't see any national rebound until at least 2010; maybe longer if builders keep constructing homes, and if banks continue dumping foreclosed properties on the market.
Morgan's Perspective
There's no way of telling how many homes are truly on the market since the picture is so dynamic.
About 2 million properties may be foreclosed upon in the coming year alone, resulting in an estimated loss of $223 billion in U.S. home equity, particularly in California, New York, Florida and Illinois, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a North Carolina-based non-profit group.
Living near a foreclosed home may even trim as much as $5,000 from your own home's market value, the center says. Some 44 million households will be affected, or about a third of all U.S. housing units.
Selling has become a trying proposition in this dour market. Morgan has found that traditional deal-sweeteners such as paying broker bonuses and giving cash back on closing to the buyer aren't working as well as price cuts.
``On one $429,000 home a client wanted me to sell, the seller wanted to give the broker a $30,000 bonus on top of the commission. I told him it wouldn't help. I told him to just drop the price.''
Because the market is so price-sensitive -- buyers want bargains and sellers want to get prices they saw at the market's peak -- you have to be flexible when advertising your home.
Morgan suggests you sell exclusively through Internet-based property sites and local Multiple Listing Services. He has found that newspaper ads, signs and open houses don't work as well as the Internet.
What Works
When you price your property, you need to employ a strategy that can run counter to your emotional perception of the home's value. That sometimes means listing at a price far below what you have anchored upon.
Like any commodity, a home's price will follow supply-and- demand trends. In theory, custom homes in desirable neighborhoods should hold their value. Other properties should be discounted depending on how many similar homes or condos are on the market. Every market is different, though.
``If you don't get any calls on your listing price after a week, drop your price $10,000 or about 2 percent of your original asking price,'' Morgan says.
``The market will tell you what the price of your home is. You better be priced 10 percent under your competition -- and then be prepared to think about accepting offers under that.''
I know that's a disheartening strategy. Yet if you have to sell now, you need to take an honest look at housing inventories in your area.
Check Inventories
Selling in Miami? You are up against almost 80,000 listed condos and single-family homes, according to ZipRealty, an online brokerage service.
There are almost 30,000 units in Las Vegas; 42,000 in Boston; 35,000 in Seattle and 110,000 in Los Angeles. Those inventories are through October.
Price-cutting is the order of business in most major markets. The service's price-reduction index, for example, shows that more than half the listings surveyed in Boston, Orange County and Sacramento, California, are discounted.
Even markets that were considered relatively stable are bloated with unsold homes.
``People were telling me Boston and Seattle were OK,'' said Morgan, who recently visited both cities. ``I've got news for those folks. They aren't OK.''
Trouble Ahead
Will the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 31 revive the moribund housing market?
It may spur a few buyers, but it won't help homeowners unable to refinance out of unaffordable adjustable-rate loans and headed for foreclosure. Nor will it clear out the massive inventory of newly built and previously owned homes.
Untold numbers of sellers are holding on to their properties or selling without brokers. Many pull homes off the market to rent at a loss.
Also look for builders to keep finishing new homes because they need to move inventory.
To sell those houses, they have to offer steep discounts. They will be advertising and doing anything they can to attract buyers. It will take more than balloons and donuts, though, to land the number of buyers they need to stay in business.
Brilliant, eh? Cut price & they will come. If you DO cut price, and they come, but DO NOT BUY, it is BECAUSE YOUR PRICE IS STILL TOO HIGH. That's where Rule 3 kicks in. KEEP CUTTING. AND CUT DEEPER. Then repeat as necessary.
What do most Realtors do? Well, most are still stuck on Cloud 9 via Kool-Aid intervenous drip. You no doubt heard about the infamous Buena Vista home blowout, where 230 builder homes will be placed on the auction block at "fire sale" prices. No? Here's a refresher:
Builder aims to clear inventory
Home builder Roger Pollock got a little too excited with Portland's frothy housing market.Now, he's cashing out -- for whatever his homes will fetch.
Pollock's Lake Oswego company, Buena Vista Custom Homes, built too many houses during the boom in towns from Scappoose to Happy Valley to Bend. Next month, Pollock will put all 230 of his unsold homes and condos up for a two-day auction. The asking prices have ranged from $300,000 to $650,000. The bids will start as low as $69,000.
Pollock's move is the first clear public signal that a Portland-area homebuilder is feeling serious pain from the housing slowdown -- and doing something drastic about it.Portland's housing market remains relatively stable compared to the busted markets in Florida, Ohio and California. But home builders here also sit on a growing backlog of finished but unsold homes. In September, the region had 8.6 months' worth of homes to sell, nearly double the figure from a year earlier.
Home builders, conditioned to be optimists, typically don't like to talk about bad news. It will only discourage consumers, they say, creating more bad news. But Pollock was unusually frank in dissecting his troubles.
"We were over-aggressive and too slow to react to the changes in the market and that has created an over-supply of finished homes," he said in a statement.
Builders nationwide are dreaming up ways to deal with the housing hangover without too much pain.
In Baltimore, Pulte Homes Inc. staged a Halloween-themed "Monster Sale" to sell new townhomes with granite countertops for as low as $480,000. The townhomes sold for $600,000 two years ago.
In Irvine, Calif., builder Lennar Corp. plans to build about 250 homes but leave them off the market rather than discount the prices, the Wall Street Journal reported this week.
It's hard to tell if other Portland-area builders will follow Pollock to the auction block.Home builders' financial health depends on a host of variables, from their lenders to locations. But short-term trends aren't moving in the industry's direction.
"There's just a lot of stuff sitting out there," said Jerry Johnson, a housing economist in Portland. " . . . This is a pretty unforgiving market right now."
Johnson said this would be the first home auction he's heard of in 18 years in the business.Pollock, 46, of Lake Oswego said life was good during the boom.
He sold as many as 50 homes a month as late as spring 2006. Each sale netted Pollock's company an average of $150,000 in profit. "We made more money than I could ever dream in the last few years," Pollock said in an interview.
But the boom went bust this summer.
A growing number of subprime borrowers -- those with spotty credit -- got behind on mortgage payments or walked away from their loans. The delinquencies exposed questionable lending practices by mortgage brokers who put some buyers in homes they couldn't afford.
The result: tighter loan standards that reduce the pool of buyers for home builders like Pollock.
When the mortgage market took an August nose dive, Pollock said, sales went with it. In October, he sold eight homes. Five previous sales fell through. So his net sales came to three. "That doesn't pay the bills," Pollock said.
At that rate, Pollock would need six years to sell off his inventory.Even the closed sales came with discounts that cut into profits. Pollock said he cleared as little as $25,000 per home, an 80 percent drop.
Pollock said he's current on all his construction loans and isn't in danger of bankruptcy. But he decided he'd be better off taking a direct hit now with an auction than suffering a slow bleed with interest payments on construction loans as he struggles to sell off inventory.
That's why Pollock decided on the auction.
Homes at auctions elsewhere have sold for about 40 percent of the original asking price. Pollock said the same figure would be realistic here. He wants to clear all his inventory by the end of the year even if it's "very possible" the company will lose money in the process. "We'll pretty much do whatever it takes," Pollock said.
Despite the auction, Pollock plans to start new subdivisions early next year in Tigard, Oregon City, Southwest Portland and Happy Valley.
Only this time, Pollock said, he'll build only after he has a buyer on the hook.
OK, so we've got this builder who watched the money pile up at $150K a throw, who's finally had it with this MONEY-LOSING thing, and is going to blow 'em out, no matter the cost. Well, ALMOST no matter the cost. Now, what I found interesting was The Realtor and Mortgage Broker Reaction to this housing Armageddon. From the "Active Rain real estate Network" (I know, sounds legit already):
AUCTION, AUCTION -- GET IN AND BUY IT!!
Thankfully, Oregon has been one of the better states so far in terms of foreclosures and defaults...having had less problems than many states. Additionally we have been lucky in not seeing the drastic reductions in home prices. It seems, though, that the challenges for the builders has been tough. This weekend there was a write up in The Oregonian explaining that a custom builder, Buena Vista Custom Homes, will be auctioning off 248 brand new custom homes in Oregon and Washington. With the bidding starting as low as $69,000.00, there are sure to be some great deals on purchases! This is a process that is new to me with the new homes, and it should prove interesting to watch and learn about.I went online and explored the entire process, so I wanted to share my research findings with you!
This is an excellent opportunity for purchasing. Make certain that you do your homework, investigate the property during the open inspection period, check into the detailed legal descriptions, and make a very educated decision. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this opportunity. And, if you have ever been involved in a situation like this before, please let us know, here, how it works from your perspective! I will be watching, reading, and writing! :)
It's a confirmed RE professional post with the obligatory 600 exclamation points per sentence, but what I found amazing (HORRIFIC?), was the INANE comments by other Realtors:Hi Amy ~ Yes, I agree! It will be interesting to see what transpires. I would imagine that investors would like this prospect. Thanks for reading and commenting. Have a very Happy Thanksgiving!
It looks like some bargains will be had there. With prices starting in the high $60k, that is unbelieveable! That should be an interesting and eventful thing to participate in. Have a Happy google gobble Thanksgiving Day! :)
Hi Dave ~ Yes, it should certainly be intriguing! I will try to remember to keep this updated after the event has gone by. It just may be a good idea for a lot of builders out there left holding a big bag of inventory! Like the "google/gobble" Thanksgiving Day!
I recently went to an auction by Liska and Assoc. a big auctioneer of real estate working out of Grants Pass in Oregon. There was no minimum bid, an estate left to the state of Oregon in the heart of the popular Irvinton neighborhood.. You needed a cashiers check for $15k just to bid. I was prepared to bid a bit over $500k for my clients, but the ending bid was over $750k! RMV was only about $800k, and the home an extreme fixer! The buyer's were in a frenzy, and kept bidding higher and higher, it seemed just to "win", at the shock to most of the crowd. I think these homes will be sold at a price that is somewhat discounted, but not at all close to the opening bid! It is an interesting way to sell a home that usually works well per statistics on the Liska and Assoc. website.
Tanya ~ Thank you for sharing your experience. I am looking forward to how this one works out. These homes are brand new, most having never been lived in. I imagine that the minimum bid will be quickly passed up. At the same time, I cannot help but wonder...if these do not sell at a high value, then we are looking at reduced property values in the brand new homes which were sold in the neighboring developments. It should definitely prove interesting! Thanks again for your insight. May your Thanksgiving be richly blessed...
I have been doing some investigating about this. The terms state that there is a reserve price that the bidder must meet in order to win the bid and they won't disclose that price. They do say it's not the low published price they list on their site. Those prices are to generate interest only. The auctioner acts as the sellers agent and can not only open a bid but can continue to bid succesively on top of any other bidders or his own bid until the reserve price is met. I don't know why they won't just start at the reserve price other than it won't sound nearly as good as saying "bids starting as low as $69,000". I suppose there could be deals to be had there but not as good as some people might expect. People really need to make sure they have all there financing in order becasue they have to close in 30 days and if they don't they will lose the 5% down they have to put on the house at the auction. There are some frustrated people out there that have had bad experiences at REDC auctions.
Tim ~ Thanks for dropping by and commenting. I have not yet had a chance to go in and read all of the terms. I ihave, however, read a lot. Somehow I missed the reserve price notice being higher than the published price. That is interesting. Although, I suspected that the low prices are only to generate interest. Why else would a builder oblige in selling that many homes for such a low price? I do think, though, that if you do your homework, a good deal could be had in this opportunity! As for people being frustrated with REDC auctions, I am sure that it is the case. If you look hard enough, people are frustrated with every company for one reason or another. Thanks again for commenting. Feel free to comment again! :)This seems to be a scam to me. I would not participate in an auction where the reserve price is not stated. You can do all of your due diligence, inspect the property and then be the high bidder and not win if your bid is not as high as the reserve price. The reserve price is above the starting bid and probably quite a bit above the starting bid. If the seller would actually be willing to sell around the starting bid price, assuming little interest in a particular property, they would have opted to have gone with no reserve.
If you are looking for a bargain, you would be better served to look at homes that are for sale and then make an offer to the seller that you believe represents the foreseeable market value. For example, take home auction PE001. The starting bid is $319,000 and the "previously valued at" amount is $509.950. Assuming a 8% decline in values from the appraisal at the time the home was started to the current time, the actual value is likely to be $468,000. However, if you buy at $468,000 you will pay a 5% premium and so any bid over $444,000 will be overpaying. However, the reserve is likely set around the $444,000 amount. The builder could certainly sell the home a little below that price and so he will not be willing to set the reserve much lower than that. By contrast, if you go around the area and find a similar home, you can take your time and make an offer and not worry about being swept up in emotions in a fixed game where the house wins and you lose.
If you think that this type of auction gives you a chance to get a bargain, you have duped by the marketing. You will end up paying market value or higher. A consumer should never be willing to participate in a reserve auction.
Hi Jacob ~ It seems very clear to me that you have done a considerable amount of homework or you have had some measure of "personal" experience with these types of transactions. As one who has never participated in this, let alone heard of such a thing, I am happy to have your input.
Just to clarify, I am by no means suggesting that anyone get "duped" by marketing. Admittedly, on the blog itself, I caution people to do their homework. As you have done so, it appears that for you, this is not the best option. I disagree, however, that someone else cannot get a better deal. It depends on the quantity and quality of your homework. If you have the patience to stand by and make sure that you are getting the best deal, great. In other words...no one is forcing you to bid higher than what your predetermined amount is.
I do respect and admire your passion and the fact that you are willing to share with this group. This is exactly what this type of forum is designed for...open discussion! So, thank you again for your contribution here. Please feel free to watch this blog and continue to make your opinions known. They certainly seem valid to me! :)
Best Regards,
Sarah Eubanks
Hi Sarah. In the terms and conditions it says all properties have a reserve price and the staring bid is not the reserve price. The prices they show on the auction page are the "starting bid" price so that would say to me the reserve price is higher. Has to be, I'm sure he won't take a loss on these homes. I think it's possible to get a deal too, just not what people think they'll get.Tim ~ Thank you for your interest in this topic. I agree with you on most all of this. I am not so sure that the builder is unwilling to take a loss. Additionally, with the profit margin that a builder makes, even at really inexpensive, they would not likely take a loss. On average, a general contractor builds 20 to 30 percent profit margin into the cost of a custom built home. So, if a home costs $300K, the builders profit would account for $60K-$90K. In that respect, the actual cost to the builder then, would of course be somewhere between $240K-$210K.
The other factor which I see being equally important is that the builder may be willing to take a loss on a few of the homes. When his inventory is sitting at almost 250 homes, he needs the capital to continue his source of income. I guess I see it the same way that a car dealership does actually sell loss leaders. It definitely draws the attention of the crowd, and it can be a write off on the losses. I registered for the event so that i can go and check it out. I will then be knowledgeable the next time that I am hear of something like this!
Again, Tim, your knowledge, thoughts, and opinions are greatly appreciated! :)
Seriously, these are all the comments. You see that after some obligatory BACK SLAPPING and GLAD HANDING bulls--t (RE Marketing 101: KISS ASS TILL YOU DIE), some Reality-mongers kick-in with their Captain Bringdown Bulls--t to "Active" rain on this lovefest parade.
You can SEE it. Realtors stuck in BUBBLE MODE, literally cannot communicate with a Reality based consumer. THIS is the problem. They are hoping to MARKET THEIR WAY OUT OF THIS. Won't work. Marketing DOES WORK when the seller Bell Curve overlaps the buyer bell curve in a significant fashion, and you are able to TALK those very close to the left edge over to your side.
This of course IS NOT THE CASE, and never will be until prices COLLAPSE, and the seller bell curve of expectations begins to significantly overlap buyers WILLINGNESS & ABILITY to pay. For the US housing market, this is probably a 25-30% haircut. In Bend it is FAR WORSE, probably more than a CUT IN HALF. Far more.
Get off your Kool-Aid drip folks. The Bubble is NO MORE.
LOOK AT NOVEMBER stats (when they arrive): I can state with LITTLE FEAR of being wrong, that November will be a dead-bang IMPLOSION around here. It will be a total DISASTER. Will prices implode? Probably not. The Kool-Aid intravenous drip is still flowing at full bore. What will happen is NOTHING WILL SELL. The gears have seized up. Christmas in Bend will be Armageddon.
And I think there still remains the occasional straggler that STILL BELIEVES that the purpose of this blog is to KILL THE LOCAL MARKET. Nothing could be more ridiculous. Following the Three Rules will LITERALLY GUARANTEE that ALL HOMES, LOTS, APT BUILDINGS, and useless PILES OF S--T, WILL SELL, NO MATTER WHAT. The purpose of this blog is NOT to somehow depress the local market, which of course is inanely stupid & impossible, it is to simply be REALISTIC. If you want good old fashioned GLOOM & DOOM from a legit source, well you could do "well" to listen to the CEO of Wells Fargo:
Wells Fargo CEO says housing worst since Great Depression
Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf said Thursday that housing is in the worst shape since the economic devastation of the 1930s."We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression," Stumpf told those attending a Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) investment conference.
He anticipates hard times ahead for home owners in financial straits -- and their bankers.
"I don't think we're in the ninth inning of winding this," Stumpf said. "If we are, it's an extra-inning game.
"The losses have turned out to be greater than expected because home prices have declined faster and deeper than expected," said Stumpf, who took the reins at the nation's fifth-largest bank earlier in June. California's Central Valley and the Midwest's auto-manufacturing states (namely, Michigan and Ohio) are creating significant mortgage losses for Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and other lenders.
Wells expects additional loan losses in the current quarter and into 2008, especially in its home equity loan portfolio. The bank realized $153 million in home equity loan losses in the third quarter.
Still, Stumpf said the bank has "minimal" exposure to collateralized debt obligations and other troubled mortgage-related securities that have prompted other banks to write off a total of $40 billion -- so far.
On Friday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded its rating on Wells Fargo's shares to "underperform" from "market perform." In a note to clients, KBW analyst Frederick Cannon said the San Francisco bank enjoys a strong franchise but it will suffer significant loan losses in the declining housing market.
Stumpf told investors that he was unaware of some of exotic mortgage-related investments being made by competitors until reading about them in the newspaper.
"It's interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money when the old ways seemed to work just fine," he quipped.
Stumpf's comments this week were more pessimistic than his luncheon remarks last month to the Financial Women's Association of San Francisco.
At that time, he was critical of some of the risky, exotic mortgages offered by competitors in recent years, such as adjustable-rate mortgages that give borrowers a choice on what monthly payment they'd like to make each month. The so-called option ARMs can have negative amortization which means the loan balance rises over time instead of being paid off.
Stumpf said Wells didn't offer such mortgages because it didn't seem right. The San Francisco bank's federal regulators don't allow negative amortization to occur with credit card debt, Stumpf observed, so why offer such loans on the typical borrower's largest and most important asset?
The "worst since the Great Depression", and WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO IT ENDING. Not gloomy enough? Here's the chief Economist for Goldman Sachs:
Goldman Economist: $2 Trillion Hit?
Jan Hatzius (right), chief economist at Goldman Sachs, made waves today with a note released last night that put possible credit losses from mortgage defualts at $2 trillion, due to leverage. Hatzius’s anlaysis have drawn attention before: Back in March 2006, Hatzius said U.S. housing was overvalued by about 20%, based on historical relationships between monthly mortgage payments and median household incomes.
Jan Hatzius (Photo: NABE)
Here are highlights from Thursday’s note:“Estimates of the likely credit losses on outstanding mortgages have grown sharply in recent months. A back-of-the-envelope calculation using past default experience in different home price environments now suggests losses of around $400 billion. … [O]ne sometimes hears that it is just equivalent to one bad day in the stock market. But this analogy is wrong.”
“[I]f leveraged investors see $200 billion of the $400 billion aggregate credit loss, they might need to scale back their lending by $2 trillion. … This is a large shock. It corresponds to 7% of the total debt owed by US nonfinancial sectors (households, nonfinancial companies, and government).”
“Our conclusion is that the likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized.” – Tim Hanrahan
Personally, I think Hatzuis' prediction will go the way of virtually EVERY SINGLE PREDICTION MADE BY BIG MONEY ECONOMISTS:
WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE
Every single prediction, EVEN MINE, will be probably proven too conservative. Hatzius predicts a $2 trillion dollar hit, in a $21 trillion market. I mean, SORRY, but that's chicken feed. 10%? The stock market periodically has that much wiped out in ONE DAY. I think we MIGHT have The BIG 14. What's the Big 14? The number of digits required to measure the losses.
$10,000,000,000,000
Oh yes. The Big $10 TRILLION. Just for some perspective, the GDP of the European Union is $13.9 trillion, the US is $13.5 trillion, and China is $11.6 trillion.
(Yeah, motherf--kin CHINA is within striking distance of overtaking WHITEY as the DOMINANT ECONOMIC FORCE ON THIS PLANET. It ain't MAYBE ANYMORE. Think Wal-Mart vs K-mart in the late 80's. And we AIN'T F--KIN WAL-MART, THEY ARE. THIS is the story of THE CENTURY in this country. The US & the European Union are about to play second fiddle to China, who will run this little patch of dirt. THAT will be the TRUE DOWNSIDE of this RE BUBBLE bursting: Communist China will take over as The World Economic Power, NOT US. Well, I guess we had a good run.)
Anyway, point is, there are only THREE countries, or conglomerations of countries, that are even close to $10 trillion. Who's after China? Welp, India & Japan are in the $4 trillion area. Germany, UK, France, and Brazil are in the $2's. The you got a lot of pikers in the $1's, like Russia, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Mexico, Canada, and Indonesia.We are about to lose an amount of money that is only even remotely approached by the GDP of the U.S., China, or the entirety of the EU. Of course, NOTHING of this magnitude has EVER happened before, short of the Great Depression. And back then, we didn't have China holding $1 trillion of our IOU's. We are deluding ourselves if we think this can end well. Even our government leaders have resorted to bald face lying to "talk" this thing up:
Despite clear signs of surging prices in the U.S., the Fed took a major step in undermining its own credibility with its most recent forecast that inflation would remain below 2% for the next three years.
As the forecast clearly paved the way for additional Fed rate cuts, Wall Street ignored its absurdity and heralded the announcement as legitimate good news. The celebration is likely infuriating foreign governments, who must be dumbstruck that the Fed can claim contained inflation at home while the declining dollar is fueling massive inflation problems around the world.
In order to maintain their pegs to the dollar, foreign central banks have been forced to print their own currencies to buy all the dollars accumulated by their exporters. This has resulted in upward pressure on consumer prices in their respective nations, with annual increases now reaching alarming rates. Bernanke’s message of benign neglect means U.S. exported inflation will likely increase substantially in the years ahead, exacerbating the inflation problems for those nations now supporting the dollar.
In December, OPEC nations will convene to discuss continuing their dollar pegs. If they were looking for a reason to drop them, the Fed may have just provided it.STILL think it's "Not so Bad"? Think again. The VERY INFRASTRUCTURE of home lending is IMPLODING:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If anyone thinks the current U.S. housing downturn is bad now, things would get far worse if Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were to suddenly stop buying mortgages, a move that would drive up the costs of home loans and devastate the economy. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's two largest sources of mortgage finance respectively, recently reported combined losses of $3.5 billion. Borrowing costs have skyrocketed and investors have erased billions of dollars in each company's equity market capitalizations. Few think the two companies are likely to pull out of the housing market, even temporarily. However, if the stream of home loan failures were to force the companies to suspend new mortgage investments, the market for mortgage bonds would "freeze up," said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer of Clearbrook Financial LLC Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee a combined $4.8 trillion of U.S. home mortgage loans of more than 40 percent of the total outstanding.
If you don't think it'll get bad, then think about this: In the Good Old Days, you had to have something on the order of 20-25% DOWN to buy a house. Then it went to 10-15%. This actually almost DOUBLES the amount of house you can buy, when the required down is halved. But not quite, because INCOME STILL MATTERED back then. The down payments were cut to 5%, and 2%, and 1%, and finally NOTHING. But through most of those slashing downpayment requirements, there was STILL some semblance of INCOME required. In 2003-2006, the income requirement was finally FRAUDED-OVER, and there could be technically be an INFINITE amount of house bought by ANYONE. And of course that's exactly what happened.
Ultimately, Bubbles burst when SOMEONE pulls their head out (usually a stick in the mud banker, bearing more than a cursory resemblance to BendBB, I'll bet), and actually wants to GET PAID ON THEIR LOAN. Well, since there was NO INCOME except for the self-supporting mechanism of a housing ATM, the entire Ponzi scheme implodes spectacularly.
$2 trillion? I don't think so. That's linear thinking. Think vicious cycle, self reinforcing geometric IMPLOSION. THAT yields something closer to $10 TRILLION. And $10 trillion yields New Economic Superpower, and it ain't us. We will rue the day we heaped praise on this BUBBLE thing.
I've often said The Implosion of The Local Bend Housing Bubble is the Biggest Story In The History Of Bend. And I suppose it is, but what will be "covered" will be the After-Effects: The implosion of downtown, mass population exodus, "Siberian" ghost towns & destination resorts (ie Subdiv chameleons). But one story will probably overwhelm them all, and it is coming SOON: There will come a day SOON, when it is announced on the Nightly News, that we are #2. Our venerated spot of 800lb gorilla will unceremoniously go to China. But what I GUARANTEE YOU WILL NOT HEAR, is that the RE Bubble is THE NUMBER ONE, SINGLE PRIMARY CAUSE. Then several years later, it'll HAPPEN AGAIN, except this time it'll be India. We'll be #3. Then, it'll happen again again, and again. We'll be somewhere in the top 10, but I'll GUARANTEE you right now, that by the time your kids are thinking of retirement, we'll be Second Rate. You'll be able to look at a 50 year chart of growth, and a rapid deceleration of WHITEY WORLD will be pegged to RIGHT NOW.
The BEST POSSIBLE THING THAT COULD HAPPEN? A rapid, complete & total annihilation of the US RE market. The faster it is over, the faster we can rebuild. Here's "17 reasons America needs a recession: Think positive, this 'slow motion train wreck' is good for the U.S."
1. Purge the excesses of the housing boom No, it's not heartless. Not like wartime calculations of "acceptable collateral damage." Yes, The Economist admits "the economic and social costs of recession are painful: unemployment, lower wages and profits, and bankruptcy." But we can't reverse Greenspan's excessive rate cuts that created the housing/credit crisis. It'll be painful for everyone, especially millions of unlucky, mislead homeowners who must bear the brunt of Wall Street's greed and Washington's policy failures. 2. U.S. dollar wake-up call Reverse the dollar's free fall and revive our global credibility. Warnings from China, France, Iran, Venezuela and supermodel Gisele haven't fazed Washington. Recession will. 3. Write-offs Expose Wall Street's shadow-banking system. They're playing with $300 trillion in derivatives and still hiding over $100 billion of toxic off-balance sheet asset-backed securities, plus another $300 billion hidden worldwide. A lack of transparency is killing our international credibility. Write it all off, now! 4. Budgeting Force fiscal restraint back into government. America has been living way beyond its means for years: A recession will cut back revenues at all levels of government and cutbacks will encourage balanced budgeting. 5. Overconfidence A recession will wake up short-term investors playing the market. In bull markets traders ride the rising tide, gaining false confidence that they're financial geniuses. Downturns bruise egos but encourage rational long-term strategies. 6. Ratings Rating agencies have massive conflicts of interest; they aren't doing their job. They're supposed to represent the investors, but favor Corporate America, which pays for the reports. Shake them up. 7. China Trigger an internal recession in China. Make it realize America's not going into debt forever to finance China's domestic growth and military war machine. A recession will also slow recycling their reserves through sovereign funds to our equities. 8. Oil Force the energy and auto industries to get serious about emission standards and reducing oil dependency. 9. Inflation Expose the "core inflation" farce Washington uses to sugarcoat reality. 10. Moral hazard Slow the Fed from cutting interest rates to bail out speculators. 11. War costs Force Washington to get honest about how it's going to pay for our wars, other than supplemental bills that are worse than Enron-style debt financing. 12. CEO pay Further expose CEO compensation that's now about five hundred times the salaries of workers, compared with about 40 times a generation ago. 13. Privatization Stop the privatization of our federal government to no-bid contractors and high-priced mercenary armies fighting our wars. 14. Entitlements Force Congress to get serious about the coming Social Security/Medicare disaster. With boomers now retiring, this problem can only get worse: A recession now could avoid a depression later. 15. Consumers Yes, we're all living way beyond our means, piling up excessive credit-card debt, encouraged by government leaders who tell us "deficits don't matter." Recessions will pressure individuals to reduce spending and increase savings. 16. Regulation Lobbyists have replaced regulation. Extreme theories of unrestrained free trade plus zero regulation just don't work; proven by our credit crisis, hedge funds' nondisclosures, private-equity taxation, rating agencies failures, junk home mortgages, and more. Get real, folks. 17. Sacrifice "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression, says Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf. As individuals and as a nation Americans have always performed best in crises, like the Depression or WWII, times when we're all asked to make sacrifices. Pampering us with interest-rate cuts and tax cuts during the Iraq and Afghan wars may have stimulated the economy temporarily, but they delayed the real damage of the '90s stock bubble while setting the stage for this new subprime/credit crisis.
Wake up, the train wrecked. Time to think positive, find solutions, demand sacrifices.
When you get sick, your body goes into Healing Mode: It ain't fun -- it sucks -- but it is how the virus is purged. This country is desperately F--KED UP. Sleeping outside of Best Buy to go shopping the day after Thanksgiving? WTF is that? This place has become a consumerist-fueled nightmare of excess. "Green" marketing, is purportedly about reusing what we have to conserve resources. But of course it has been bastardized by Corporate America (I am a Republican, for God's sake!), to schill MORE S--T WE DON'T NEED. We worship LOSERS like Brittany & Paris, who are famous for NO OTHER REASON, than they are famous. THEY ARE F--KIN LOW LIFE LOSERS -- yet in today's America they are adored.
We are so f--kin' dead. Corporate America has convinced us that our Very Souls are tied to CONSUMPTION. Feel like s--t? Buy an X-box. Business going to s--t? Go out & get an Escalade. It's often said the rest of the World wants what America has. I sure as hell hope that ain't true, cuz what we have is f--kin pathological.
We NEED a recession, or WORSE. We need to get some RATIONAL VALUES again. If there is one Good Thing that comes out of the Economic Armageddon that is coming our way courtesy of the RE Bubble Implosion, hopefully it is THAT; That we are turned from a bunch of whiny ass, litigious, frivolous, fame-worshipping, airhead consumerist lunatics to real people again who don't value our existence based on the amount of s--t we have lying around a house we can't afford.
I want to end this lovefest, with a review of why a violation of the Three Rules by a local builder, left their genitals whithered & useless. Last Sunday, the Bulletin summarized the recent "auction" by Brooks of their last 3 RiverWild condos, "How builders plan to face housing slide". Of course this WAS NOT a real auction. A real auction is WELL ADVERTISED (like this one), draws financially able buyers (like this one), and let's the market SET THE PRICE (UNLIKE this one).
Of course, there were ridiculous minimums set on these 3 RiverWild dogs. Who could forget the Oct 12 puffery, meant to get our Pavlovian Consumerist tongues slobbering uncontrollably:
Developer will auction townhomes
Brooks knocked $99,000 to $184,000 off the asking price of each of the three 2,000-square-foot units to come up with minimum bid prices, Rosenthal said. One was reduced from $839,000 to $640,000; another from $839,000 to $625,000; and the third, which comes equipped “down to the corkscrew” with $40,000 worth of furniture, was slashed from $879,000 to $695,000.
Of course, the title of the piece is a misnomer, there was no "auction". Per wikipedia:
An auction is the process of buying and selling goods by offering them up for bid, taking bids, and then selling the item to the winning bidder. In economic theory, an auction is a method for determining the value of a commodity that has an undetermined or variable price.
Of course, the Brooks sale doesn't fit this definition. A more accurate title for this piece SHOULD HAVE BEEN: "Brooks marks down townhomes, hopes for sale". Of course this is dead boring & pedestrian, happens everyday. Even the Buena Vista "auction" doesn't really qualify. A REAL AUCTION let's the market set the price. This WILL NOT HAPPEN.
Look what happened when Brooks even attempted a FAKE AUCTION: 2/3rds FAILURE RATE. And that's AFTER a 25% price reduction. See? Rule #3 VIOLATED, HENCE FAILURE.
You wanna fail? Just do Rule 1, or 2, but not all 3. And the SLOWER you pursue these rules the LONGER it takes & THE LOWER the price you will ultimately sell for.
OK, FREE YOUR MIND!
This thing WILL NOT END, until we hit rock bottom. It is your PATRIOTIC DUTY to drop the price on every house you have for sale 30% RIGHT NOW. Then keep dropping. You will do it anyway, I can GUARANTEE YOU THAT.
Look at Hollern: He dropped 25% in one shot, and STILL HAD A 2/3rds FAILURE RATE. And he had a sleazy angle, lots of press, and tons of money. You? You got s--t. You got a stable of wildly overpriced CRAP. Drop it 40% now, and you MIGHT sell one or two. I'm saying this to help people get 'er done. They will actually realize that MASSIVE, DRASTIC price drops are THE ONLY THING THAT'LL WORK.
And everytime you even THINK that your dumbass 5 or 10% price reduction will have ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER, remember that Brooks has 1,000,000% more resources than you, AND THEY COULD NOT MAKE A 25% PRICE DROP WORK. The left tail of the sellers bell curve & the right tail of the buyers ARE STILL MILES APART AFTER A 25% PRICE CUT. That should tell you where True Equilibrium is:
50% BELOW WHERE WE ARE NOW, MINIMUM
OK, just ONE MORE thing. Timmy post this link over on BendBB: "Getting worried downtown". I recommend your read the whole thing, if only for the Long Wave, macro viewpoint that only stoic Bristish economist can muster. I'll skip the narrative, and just post some interesting graphs:
Needless to say, we are in uncharted territory. This graphs distills a debt-fueled hedonistic nightmare of frenzied consumerism that will ultimately claim the entirety of the US economy as it's victim.
After a DECADE of steadily deteriorating lending practices, the jig is up. The American Ponzi Lending Scheme Apocalypse is near. CASH will not just be King, it'll be everything from lowly serf on up.
Case-Shiller shows clearly that a fall back to 120 would be easily achievable, and that's a 33% haircut. Charting Bend on this same graph would be a line that goes vertical & off the chart in the 2003-2005 area. A CUT IN HALF is probably THE BEST possible, mega-OPTIMISTIC scenario for this little patch of scrub we call home.
If the market value of your home drops 50% between last Summer & rock bottom, count yourself DAMN LUCKY. That's IF you're still in Bend & still alive, cuz this thing will play out over DECADES.
From Bruce, over on BendBB:
The Kübler-Ross model describes, in five discrete stages, the process by which people deal with grief and tragedy, especially when diagnosed with a terminal illness. The model was introduced by Elisabeth Kübler-Ross in her 1969 book "On Death and Dying". The stages have become well-known as the "Five Stages of Grief".- Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
- Anger: "Why ME? It's not fair!" (either referring to God, oneself, or anybody perceived, rightly or wrongly, as "responsible")
- Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my child(ren) graduate."
- Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
- Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."
The company also announced plans to move its main Bend real estate office from Awbrey Butte, where it has been for years, into the company’s headquarters building on Franklin Avenue downtown. Its three-member mortgage group spun off to form a new company, Hollern said, and three of its 17 Bend-based real estate brokers have left for new careers or retirement.
Those 3 Realtors that blew up, are actually very prescient or lucky. Of course, Hollern still has to put a Happy Face on this debacle. I know for a fact that the "3-member mortgage group spun off to form a new company", was in reality turned into a 3-man cotton candy wagon at the circus. You DON'T "spin off" that sort of crap. That's like me saying I'm going to "SPIN OFF" this f--kin blog. OK, 100% BULLS--T. This sort of NON-SALABILITY characterizes so many Central Oregon businesses, it's overwhelming. Brooks Resources itself is TOTALLY UNSALABLE. Because it LOSES MONEY? Hell no, it's made a fortune. But like a one man law firm or accountant, the ONLY thing worth 2 cents is the people, who would promptly walk out the door after a sale.
Anway, back to grief. This thing has already taken over a year for stage 1, so it seems reasonable to think latter stages will take AT LEAST as long.
Bend will probably go through Hell through the end of the next decade.
Geez... OK, one more little thing: In case you think for some reason that the poor lending practices that saturated the industry mean that 2005-2006 will be some of the worst performing loans, and will represent a foreclosure hump going forward, like a snake digesting a rabbit, think again. From the NYTimes, "As Defaults Rise, Washington Worries":
Yes. The ONLY loans performing WORSE than the Bubble loans of 2005-2006 are the Bubble Loans of 2007! We are still in the teeth of making HORRIBLY ill-advised loans on houses. Except now it is driven by a complete deterioration of the fundamentals. Shore up lending standards ALL YOU WANT, and still we'll see defaults at a HEMORRHAGING rate. Look at some of these jewels of insight:
"The recent weakness in job growth and falling home prices in many parts of the country have probably contributed to the higher default rates on loans from early this year, specialists say. Job losses in the housing industry have put pressure on the economies of formerly fast-growing states like Arizona and Florida. And declining home prices have made it harder for borrowers to refinance loans, especially in cases where the buyers could afford the homes only with the help of the low introductory rates on adjustable mortgages.Those borrowers are expected to encounter further strain in the months and years ahead as their loans are reset to higher variable rates. When they try to refinance their mortgages, many of them will face stricter lending standards. Many lenders are now requiring borrowers to provide documentation of their incomes, and they will not lend more than 80 to 90 percent of a house’s value.
A survey of 500 borrowers with adjustable-rate loans released yesterday in Cleveland showed that the resetting of rates will put a significant strain on homeowners."
Wow. So there'll be job loss as a result of the bursting of the biggest speculative bubble of all time? Really? Further strain on borrowers as their rates reset & their payments double? You don't say!
Funny, that I & the giants on whose shoulders I stand (you are a giant BEM, right?) have been saying this stuff FOR 2 YEARS! Man, no wonder it feels like I'm whistling in the wilderness.
Folks, remember that WAYYYY back, BEM, I and others were reviled & ridiculed for even suggesting there even was a bubble. Of course, now it's common knowledge & the lead story on the nightly news. NOW, believe me when I tell you that this thing has not even seen the full light of day. AND that Bend will be orders of magnitude WORSE than the US as a whole. The losses in this region will simply boggle the mind. Case studies for Harvard Business School in 20 years & such. We will achieve infamy as being the single greatest speculative local hotbed, in the greatest speculative bubble, ever achieved in modern history. We will also achieve the dubious honor as the greatest specualtive implosion in US real estate market history, EVER.
This blog & it's cohorts have been DEAD RIGHT to date... maybe it's time you figure out that this thing isn't going to be "OK" in a month, or a year, or even 2. It's Calamityville, OK. You will not be able to believe how bad it'll get. In 10 years you won't even recognize this place.
GHOST TOWN
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7:00
Becky Breeze Calls The Plaza "UNFORTUNATE"
» Bend Bubble 2Welp, it's been another week where it has been proved that the real value of this blog is primarily in user comments. And I woke up to find that The Bulletin has just printed a fairly informative piece, on what at some point, will be acknowledged as The Biggest News Story in Bend History, The Collapse of The Local Real Estate Market. It WILL NOT, in all likelihood be The Biggest in the US -- that'll be saved for some sort of terrorist nightmare -- but nothing will be as big & far reaching as the local collapse in Bend RE. Not even close.
Let's start out with Becky, shall we?
I received an email from one Jakey-O, one proprietor of BendBlogs last Sunday, Nov 4. He said that "Becky Breeze" had been advised by her helper monkey to read the derisive horrors that Jake -- yes Jake -- had been writing about her on BendBlogs. It can be assumed that she clicked on a link, say... I don't know... "RIP Breeze & Wurzels' The Plaza, We hardly knew ye.", and became inflamed.
Becky did what any techno-tard would do, and I include my wife in that group, she sent Jake a bit of rebuttal mail via his blog submission form. Now folks, faking THAT sort of technological retardation is truly reserved for those who have absolutely NO IDEA how email & other rock-bottom internet technologies really work. Again, it's something my own lovely wife would do. Which is actually why my initial reaction was it was "How very sweet"! Really! It's like watching a young infant try to figure out a remote or something. Whenever my wife tries to surf the net, I end up giving her a hug & chuckling -- it's just so damn cute what she thinks is the right way to do things!
So upon receiving Jake's email, I KNEW this email from Becky Breeze was authentic. I knew it. I knew it was authentic for other reasons as well, but the manner in which he received it instantly validated it's authenticity, in my mind. You will also see that this is DIFFERENT from the comments left over on BendBB by "Becky". Without further ado, here it is (some formatting is mine, as her message was in plain text):
city: Bend blogname:
becky breeze
blogurl: becky breeze
comments: Hello I am the person you mentioned in a recent blog. I am 58 and really do not even know what a blog is but here I am. My 12 year assistant told me there was a blog I should read and address it.
So here I am. Hi
First of all I have been selling to the most poor and the most rich and mostly to everyone in between in Salem and Bend for 28 years. I have sold real estate with pride and with integrity and no one that can say anything different. My client base is loyal and appreciative of my experience and my loyalty to them.
Unfortunately for me and my wonderful husband in our ever changing market, we followed the request from a wide base of clients that said they needed one level condominiums that was not a retirement center. A place to enjoy and be secure but not be restricted to age in case their children or grandchildren want to stay. They did not want to rent a room from the retirement centers Bend developers were building and have to pay the $3000 to 5000 a month fee for a rental.
I kept thinking that would be a good idea but did not have the time. My husband retired from his real job and asked me what I wanted to do with the almost acre lot we owned. Of course I told him what my client base had been saying. This was 04. I had so many requests for one easy living one level condos from clients I told him that seemed what we needed to do.
We are environmentalists so we made sure we had the largest green roof this side of the cascades, all the clean water from the building goes through underground pipes to the river, all outside surfaces are no up-keep (cement,brick)so there will not be off gasses and maintenance. 33,000 sq ft of undergound parking so we do not impact the Old Mill as every else has.
I can go on but I will not. But call and I will fill you in. It is better for 42 families to be able to walk and bike to their businesses and recreation then it is for them to drive from the out lining neighborhoods. I do not know why you are picking on me and our project. I will be happy to walk you through personally or my crew is on duty daily from 12 to 5. Come by and have coffee. I am a nice person and I am sure you are too.
Becky
As I have said 100X, Becky really is a nice gal. And I'll say it again, Becky Breeze is a sweet, well-meaning gal. OK?
But there are a few bothersome little details here that throw a chink in that sweet little armor. First, the idea that Becky asked OR received client recommendations about a "one level condominiums that was not a retirement center", is patently absurd. Those words have never been uttered before in World history.
Becky: "So, now that I've pocketed 6%, I'd like to ask you What Sort Of Building You Would Like To Live Out The Rest Of Your Short Life In?"
Mental Patient: "I WOULD LIKE A ONE LEVEL CONDOMINIUM SO THAT I MIGHT BE ABLE TO QUICKLY GO TO VICTORIAS SECRET, THE RIVER, OR WALK TO MY JOB AS A CRAZY PERSON AT THE LOCAL ASYLUM. THANK YOU FOR ASKING."
OK, did not happen. Condo's are built for ONE REASON, and one reason only: So OLD PEOPLE can be entombed and get used to CASKET LIVING as soon as possible. What Becky REALLY should have spent money on is some sort of rocket-propelled modular stacked dumpster that shot condo-dumpster units directly into the Deschutes River when geezers die, ala Spock in "Start Trek: The Motion Picture". I'm sorry Becky, but self-serving tripe Bulls--t like that will get you mowed down here. Cut the bulls--t.
Becky is also invoking The Whole "I'm Green, Lookie At Me!" Enviro-Nazi, Cloaked Corporate Greed bulls--t marketing angle, which will actually be revealed for what it is: Plain old cost cutting.
Q: "Was cement used because it's cheap, abundant, and has been used for 50,000 years as a building material?"
A: "No! We're GREEN! So we used cement, and other GREEN building material such as METAL REBAR, BRICKS, AND ROOFING SHINGLES so that Grampa wouldn't SUFFOCATE to death if we used NON-GREEN building materials like Anthrax, Agent Orange, or the stacked up corpses of baby deer and Vietnamese child slave labor, like so much of our EVIL COMPETITION uses. We're GOOD PEOPLE!"
Mark my words: We'll all look back on this GREEN thing as some demented period where Corporate Overlords bent Enviro-Nazi's over a barrel & let 'em have it right up their bran-laden corn chutes. It's already so OVERUSED that it's meaning has been diluted to nil. All I know, is when someone tells me they're GREEN, they are REALLY charging me 50-100% more than the market will bear for the same old s--t.
Green Marketer: "Did you know these coffee beans were picked by SUSTAINABLE MEXICANS in the Guatemalan Rain Forests of China?"
Paul-doh!: "Bitch, you been pitching that Juan Valdez bulls--t for 20 years! I know damn well they mount about 6 Cubans on the front hood of a motherf--king 1952 Chevy, and drive that motherf--ker at about 90mph through they next door neighbors coffee field, pickin beans like a motherf--ker! Don't give me that GREEN BULLS--T! F--kin Chinese are gonna take 'er to the next level, and tie 50 Chinamen by they feet to a 1948 C-121 Constellation, and fly that bitch at low altitude over the vast Mongolian coffee fields, and get that crop dusting & coffee pickin done at the same time. GREEN? My cottage cheese ass, GREEN!"
Sorry, but when I hear someones GREEN, I about drop a load in my pants. You ain't GREEN Becky, you're like the rest: you're cheap as s--t, and have found the Holy Grail of actually CHARGING MORE for BUTT BANGING your customers for cheap crap.
Now, long about last Monday, Becky figured out BLOGGING, to the extent that is possible, and dropped a note on BendBB's door. I never saw the original, as it was deleted. Duncan asked:
"Did you guys remove that last message or did the writer? Just curious."
Then a "Guest":
"Thats interesting, I read the entire letter. is this more censorship? or just that Becky decided to remove it? "
Then rdc chimed in:
"It was a long message with writer being a guest with name Becky Breeze "
Finally, at 8:03PM the Unwaveringly Correct Voice of Reason, BendBB, imparted from High On Mount Sinai, a message he brought down burned into 2 rock tablets:
" I removed it. It's okay to post anonymously under a handle or a nickname, but it's not okay to post under someone else's name."
The imputence! That "Becky Breeze" character was soon going to be shown what it's like to tangle with The Unshakable Resolution Of BendBB, a man who has NEVER in history been proven even REMOTELY INCORRECT. EVER. But still, the UNBELIEVERS CONTINUED. Another CONTEMPTUOUS "Guest":
"That was a very legitimate letter, It was written by Becky I assure you."
It is at this point that BendBB, standing in tattered rags, having spent 40 days on Mount Sinai picking berries and gnawing his own toes (no relation Tim...) to stay alive, whipped a 3rd TABLET out of his back pocket, and proclaimed THE TRUTH:
Nope, it was clearly written by a troll. If you're that easily fooled, I've got a bridge in Portland to sell you.
This is where it should have ended. "So let it be written, so let it be done", and all that. But no. At this point, your humble author, took time from busily constructing Golden Idols and performing ghastly acts of bestiality, to mumble:
"It WAS real. Don't worry, you'll see it again."
And BendBB did what he should have done all along, he gave me the Proverbial God-like Smackdown!
BendBB: Here's a picture of the bridge for sale:
F--k-N A right ya Bitch! Even then, I tempted fate, WRONGLY:
Paul-doh!: "Say what you want, I know the source... it's legit"
Then came the filth of unbelievers, first Timmy: "Is it posted on your blog, Paul? I didn't get to read it." Then another loathsome "Guest": "My mother works for Becky, it was indeed written by her." The TRUTH? YOU MOTHERF--KERS CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH:
BendBB when hearing suggestions he is "wrong".
Finally the onslaught was TOO MUCH, and our UNWAVERINGLY CORRECT LEADER, one who KNOWS ALL & SEES ALL, actually did the UNTHINKABLE, he acknowledged that he COULD HAVE BEEN ... Oh God, it's TOO AWFUL FOR WORDS... WRONG! NEVER! NEVER, I say!
Here we see Timmy asking a judge to pull his finger, or telling BendBB he's wrong. He was promptly executed for both.
But still the onslaught from the Contemptuous Maggots CONTINUED:
frazzled: "Why don't you just put the post back, so we can all judge for ourselves? We don't need BB being our censor. Instead of deleting a post remove the username or any signature."
Finally, after shaking off a momentary spell, possibly cast by SATAN, BendBB returned to True Form:
"If you don't like how this bulletin board works, nobody is forcing you to read it and you're free to leave.
For those who have trouble remembering the concept of not posting under someone else's name, I've added a reminder in the Welcome topic under the General category."
yes. Yes! YES!! He's BACK! Take THAT you contemptuous BITCHES!
" Your opinion that you don't like censorship is fine, but you also need to recognize that there's no absolute right to post anything anyone wants anywhere on the Internet. If someone wants to participate on a bulletin board or blog where there are no rules there are plenty of them out there. That's not how this bulletin board works though, so if you're going to post here you need to follow the rules."
Finally, someone who UNDERSTANDS that the TRUE VALUE of blogs & BB's is in THE CENSORSHIP. We should have learned this from The Three Holy Sisters Of Censorship: KTVZ, The Bulletin, and Cascade Business Buttf--kers. But no. We whored about, f--king golden sheep in the ass, while someone was high on Mount Sinai trying to figure out Universal Truths FOR US, such as The Merits Of Green Marketing & Why Identity Verification On The Internet Is Absolutely Foolproof, and other Golden Nuggs. Here is a recent pic of BendBB pleading his case at the DMV:
Now, I'm going to continue the Becky Breeze thread for the sake of completeness, and some things might be copy/pasted that make it APPEAR that BendBB is wrong (perish the thought), and I was DEAD MOTHERF--KING RIGHT THE WHOLE F--KING TIME AGAIN, but rest assured this is not the case. These statements will be taken out of context by some, but again, BendBB has NEVER BEEN WRONG, and I HAVE NEVER BEEN RIGHT, and for that I, as usual, must apologize PROFUSELY to BendBB for the err of my heathen-istic ways. Here is a recent pic of Paul-doh! as proof of his horribleness:
Now after Jakey-O's BendBlogs receives a blog submission, he has an auto-repsonder send a confirmation "Thank You". Becky felt compelled to respond to this RUDE auto-bot Transformer:
"Hi I do not know what a blog is but my 38 old assitant that has been with me for 12 years told me I should address this. I am dealing with ovarian cancer and do not think it is important and will not check it again probably but I gave my response to the issue. Thank you Becky"
"I am dealing with ovarian cancer and do not think it is important"? What? Becky, of course your ovarian cancer is important.
Seriously, I again wish her well. Now this is when we get back to Bend "Always MOTHERF--KIN Right" BB, and the rest of us loathsome idiots. BendBB posted this with respect to how he rolls:
"I've sent an email message to Becky Breeze asking her to confirm that she's the one who registered for the bulletin board today. When she responds I'll let you know what I find out."
Absolutely. The dead on right thing to do, because as any MORON knows, once you've registered on an anonymous bulletin board, that's really the only 100% dead sure way of confirming who anyone really is. So here is The Real And Absolutely Unfakeable BeckyBreeze, the Only Possible Becky Breeze In The Known Universe":
"Know how to do this blog stuff. ADMINISTRATOR Please re post my response that I provided under guest before. My smart systems guy Tarris is standing over me and showed me how register and respond properly. The administer will know @ not worry it was me. Dealing with a possible 'real demise' of Ovarian cancer starting 2 years ago this coming Jan, this all seems weird. Just remember when you are all being tough on each other most people are just like you in a lot of ways. No one in this life gets by on a free pass. Stay healthy and get as much happiness out of each day as you can. Come by and see me anytime you want and I will talk face to face with anyone that wants to. It is always good to meet a new friend. It kind of makes me sad that the guy that posted the blog said 'I told her not to do it' There was only one person that said that to me and he knows who he is. That person was told a million times not to do almost everything in his life and has gotten some success from just trying everyday and has avoided financial demise many times by just persevering. Some people want to get theirs and not want anyone else to get anything. Thanks again for all the nice responses you posted that Tarris showed me. One last thing, if people really want the small developers to fail only the big rich good old boys get the products in the sales. If you dislike a few people running your city now and setting their rules then it will be even worse when only a few big guys own everything. It is bad enough now in this small city. I do not understand why anyone would want failure of all the projects mentioned or anyone. We all reflect on each other financially city wide. If a lot of people loose their homes in an area then everyone is affected. I started real estate when % rates were in the high teens and low 20's. For all of you under 50 you may not remember those dark days of empty store fronts and people loosing everything. Tough times and no one except a few people again with the big pockets get richer during those times. Today rates are low, there is tons of loan products and prices are low. These are the best of times for buyers with decent credit. Do something good for yourself and the economy. Buy a home. You do not even have to buy from me. Just buy a home. In a couple of years you will be glad you did. Thanks for reading Becky"
So Becky starts doing The Right Thing here, and is posting some Good Stuff. Minimally self-serving, authentic, heartfelt and genuine, errors and all. If she started a blog (please do), I would add it to my regular agenda. Go the Duncan route Becky... it'll work for you.
Now, after this started another onslaught of questioning of our Unerring Ruler, said "Guest":
"bendbb what in her first post and now second post makes you think it's not Mrs. Breeze?"
This sort of second-guessing is unconscionable. And BendBB shot back with Impenetrable Logic, as always:
"Primarily the history of people posting under other people's names. I think it's prudent to verify that Becky Breeze is actually the person posting these messages, rather than taking it on faith. Becky, if you're the person who posted the messages in question please respond to the email message I sent this afternoon asking for confirmation."
See, folks, BendBB KNOWS your REAL NAMES. Now your REAL NAMES are NOT the names of KNOWN CELEBRITIES. Even "local" celebrities, like "Becky Breeze". See, BendBB wants to PROTECT THE INNOCENT CELEBRITIES OF THE WORLD from the murderous blood-thristy BLOGGING paparazzi of The World, such as those that KILLED PRINCESS DIE. Or Di. See, he can SMELL A FAKE a million miles away. That's why "Becky Breeze The Unregistered Whore" was quickly outfitted with BendBB fake boobs, and gussied up like Audrey Hepburn in "My Fair Lady", while BendBB played Professor Higgins and laboriously gave her "The Rain in Spain Stays Mainly In The Plain" voice lessons on what would and WOULD NOT fly on the inscrutable BendBB board. When she was a proper lady, and not a Saturday night crack whore, BendBB let her post with impunity:
"Tarris said some of you asked for stats on the MLS sales in affordable housing in Bend. Here it is and I will be happy to talk face to face with anyone that has questions. All of these stats are from our local Multiple Listing Bureau as of about 3 minutes ago. Today in BEND residential only(no condos, townhomes, businesses, land,lots,or even residential w/acreage is not included. So remember that for the next numbers provided THESE ARE ALL HOMES STATS ONLY FROM 100K TO 300K
Today 366 homes are for sale in Bend priced from $154,250 to $300,000 Since Jan 1 O7 to today (same price as above only 1K to 3K) 440 homes closed sale and 48 are pending for a total of 488 sold and pending 07 YTD 2006 605 homes closed and 46 went pending 1K to 3K 2005 THE YEAR EVERYONE WAS BUYING HIGH 1675 HOMES SOLD AND 48 PENDING 1k to 3k only 2004 1710 sold and 48 went pending (same 48? no) 1k to 3k only 2003 1471 sold and 48 went pending 1K to 3K only 2002 1266 sold and 44 went pending 1K to 3K only total dollar volume of each year SOLD 2007 $113,900,514 million CLOSED VOLUME 2006 $161,337,700 million CLOSED VOLUME 2005 $390,093,667 million !!!!!!!!!
EVERYONE BUYS WHEN EVERYONE IS BUYING IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME. BUY NOW LOOK AT THE STATS
2004 $355,335,929 million CLOSED VOLUME
2003 $283,074,314 million CLOSED VOLUME
2002 $230,599,099 million CLOSED
For the person hoping for 2002 2003 and 2004 prices. DON'T Look at these stats hard. This is sad stuff for people who want to sell their homes. Forget the developers and builders. Think about yourself owning a home and just being transferred or having to go into an assisted living place. Think about all the guys who want to work in the trades. It is gruesome out the upside is it IS the best BUYERS market I have seen in 28 years. It all has a ripple effect and it can effect you no matter who you are. I got an email from someone from this site and I told them it was me and to re post that first response. So here we go. Thanks Becky"
Now Becky continued posting some rather interesting observations, and I hope more is forthcoming. She, like Duncan, has EXTREMELY VALUABLE (if sometimes cryptic) insights (use your RETURN key) into the workings of Bend RE, as well as probably a rich historical viewpoint.
And I must again apologize for this in advance, but you will see on Page 6 of the "11M Condo Project?", a BLASPHEMOUS reproduction of POSTS BY myself & BendBB, which taken in isolation, seems to indicate he was POSSIBLY in error. Let me assure you, gentle reader, nothing could be further from the TRUTH:
"BendBB: Nope, it was clearly written by a troll. If you're that easily fooled, I've got a bridge in Portland to sell you.
Paul-doh!: It WAS real. Don't worry, you'll see it again.
BendBB: Here's a picture of the bridge for sale:
Paul-doh!: Say what you want, I know the source... it's legit
BendBB: I'm pleased to report that Becky Breeze replied to my email message and confirmed that she registered on the bulletin board earlier today. She requested that I repost the message I deleted earlier in this topic, so here it is."
BendBB quickly, and RIGHTLY SO, removed that last line when reposting the post by BeckyBreeze, Unregistered Saturday Night Crack Whore -- not Becky Hepburn, Proper Registered Lady. Such an admission MIGHT possibly be construed as an ADMISSION OF ERROR, which we all know is in the same league of human abominations such as "Jews should not be thrown in EZ Bake Ovens", and "Rwanadan Genocide Isn't Good For The Victims".
"John Thomas"? That there is legit, cuz BendBB hasn't heard of him. "Bruce Abernathy"? Well, that is the mayors name, but also probably the name of other dudes, so we will have to wait until BendBB comes down with more engraved rock tablets to figure out how REAL that name is. People, you need to realize that when you type keys on a keyboard that you are commiting your very soul to a mySQL database, and there is no turning back at that point. Once you type "Becky Breeze", YOU ARE BECKY BREEZE. Why? Because as BendBB has pointed out, THE PROCESS OF SOMEONE TYPING A NAME ON A KEYBOARD IS UNFAKEABLE. And never you mind that someone soon after had their post removed for posting as my name, and I posted as "free fall", and then I posted as me, asking the Other Me to remove all my posts, but I posted from an anonymous proxy so there was no possible way to confirm who was who or what was what. Again, I am just glad that I did NOT type "BECKY BREEZE" on the username field, and receive some sort of Auto-Boob job. Folks, realize that ONLY BendBB truly understands the LIMITLESS & UNFAKEABLE nature of anonymous bulletin boards. We are but humble mental maggots standing in his shadow.
Think about it.
OK, now on to Juniper Ridge, the f--kin story of monumental Bend City Councilor INCOMPETENCE that just won't DIE! "bruce", a former Unitarian Polygamist from Sandy, UT apparently poked his arm up the public records rectum of this one-horse s--thole, and pulled out the Purchase Agreement for Les Schwabs "Gone In 60 Seconds" negotiation of buying a little hunk of JR back when we were all suckling at Mommies teet. He said:
"Some Shwab purchase info, at last: 12 acres for $3,000,000, or a price of $250,000 and acre. We have a comparable!"
I saw in a recent Bulletin piece that a "Worst Case Scenario" was that the initial build out to make LS feel comfy cozy in JR was $12,600,000. Garzini added as an aside that this figure included a $2.5MM payout directly to Kmart for Holz-tek's light blue polyester leisure suit account.
So, doing a quick calculation yields a KICK ASS -76% return on our first Juniper Ridge deal! YEAH! We're on our way! At this rate, we should be bankrupt by Christmas. Good job Bend City Councilors! They clearly perceived that when LES SCHWAB Legal ROBOBOTS walked in and DEMANDED that they be sold Juniper Ridge land, the property of the City, that they as City representatives HAD NO CHOICE but to sell for 1/4th the cost of simply providing infrastructure (like a f--kin driveway), and that essentially counts the land as free.
But even better, is that "bruce" found this little nugg:
'LS is also protected against "...any additional restrictive covenents or master plan requirements other than those...approved by the Buyer...The master planning...for the balance of Juniper Ridge shall include provisions to protect the investment being made by Buyer and the value of the Property from being diminished by incompatible uses on other parts of Juniper Ridge."'
Nice! Luckily the City has wrested away control of Juniper Ridge from that horrible Holzman/Kuratek gangbang squad, and put it where it properly belonged, with Les Schwab. I'm sure City Council quickly found a $500/hr consultant who could use a slide rule & protractor to make the following calculations:
“Protect the view from the Property of the Cascade Mountains by limiting the height of buildings abutting Cooley Road west of 18 th Street to a maximum of 45 feet.” “Allow Buyer the right to approve any use or alteration of the land located south of the Property between Cooley Road and the south property line of Juniper Ridge, such approval not to be unreasonably withheld.”
Right. Good. Les Schwab, who lives on in Dick Borgman who swallowed his ashes, has decided that the coming Wal-Mart International Space Station at Cooley & 97 cannot be over 45ft tall. I can only agree with BendBuster that Wal-Mart might be slightly pissed that They Didn't Think Of Strongarming Bend City Council first. Look what Les Schwab got out of it. 100% control of Juniper Ridge in perpetuity.
This just goes to show that if you want to Get 'Er Done in Bend Oregon that you need to understand what Holzman, Kuratek, and Dick Borgman knew long ago: If you walk in a City Council meeting with a Take No Prisoners attitude, you can pretty much steal any f--king thing you want from this town. "Proper Channels"? "Paperwork"? That s--t is for LOSERS! In Bend, we don't roll like that. The trusty graft-ridden Old Boy Network. That GUARANTEES the job will get done right on time & ON BUDGET the first time. Like them f--kin CRIPPLE RAMPS that came in at a mere 2,000% over budget, and were STILL BUILT WRONG.
My God. The INANE incompetence and graft that IMBUE every motherf--kin cubic centimeter of this town is truly mind boggling. As I said a long time ago, BendBuster is one crazy f--kin raving lunatic. But in this place, that's exactly what MAKES SENSE. The f--kin craziest s--t ever conceived doesn't quite characterize Bend, because we do s--t WEIRDER THAN THAT.
I get a little chuckle that my own overwhelming pessimism about Bend was actually understated because it was built on the faulty assumptions that we have "nominal" leadership at the top. So DEAD WRONG. Now that resources are drying up, the Old Boy Network backbone is starting to cannibalize itself. Graft, the fundamental method of Bend power structures, is falling apart because MONEY is going bye-bye.
So Fair Warning: If you want an accurate picture of the future, read BendBusters crazy-ass clapboard. The bastard is getting it right... and he's WAY more pessimistic than anyone.
Now I want to finish up with todays Bulletin piece, on what I humbly call The Most Important News Story In Bend History, The COLLAPSE Of The LOCAL Real Estate Market. In "How builders plan to face housing slide", inscrutable super-reporter David Fisher described Brooks Resources recent "auction" of 3 RiverWild condos thusly:
"It was a bit of a bust. Only one of the three sold, and at the minimum bid — more than $200,000 below list price.The other two attracted not a single offer."
Huh? "A bit of a bust"? You must be kidding! They actually SOLD one of these dogs to some moron at THE MINIMUM! My God, that's 1,000,000X better than I would have hoped for. Makes me wonder if the single "buyer" was in fact a plant. But Hollern soon proves that his head is planted formly in the clouds:
"Now, with an overhang of unsold inventory glutting the housing market — the aftermath of a three-year boom run amok — Brooks, along with some of the region’s other large builders and developers, is trying to adjust to a slump that Hollern believes may last another two years."
TWO YEARS? As Timmy would suggest, have a look at Case-Shiller futures, Hollern. Two years is a pipedream. If Bend recovers in 20 YEARS, I will be stunned. Then the piece turns to Buena Vista homes, a Lake Oswego builder that is going wholesale:
"Buena Vista Custom Homes, a Lake Oswego-based company that billed itself as one of the nation’s fastest-growing builders when it moved into the Bend market in early 2006, announced Thursday that it will put all 200 of its unsold homes in Oregon up for auction next month, including 29 in Forum Meadows, its brand-new east-Bend subdivision."
I find it interesting that BV is mentioned at all, as the first time I've ever heard of it was in last weeks comments. Do Bulletin reporters read BB2 comments for story leads? Nah, they might scratch the truth and catch the ebola of endemic REALISM. Next we hear Hollern's estimate of speculative activity:
"Many of the speculators and investors who accounted for up to a third of purchases in subdivisions like NorthWest Crossing during the boom years have fled the “buy” side and become sellers, inflating inventory levels and forcing the region’s developers and builders to change course."
1/3rd? Again, Hollern seems to have fallen in the Kool-Aid vat. I would put the estimate closer to 105%, +/- 4%. The next paragraph reveals BUILDERS GONE WILD VIII will soon be out on DVD:
"The two biggest, Brooks and Pahlisch, say they’re still bullish on the region’s future, so they’re not following Buena Vista’s sell-it-fast tactic. Both are moving forward with their newest subdivisions, albeit at a slower pace. But they’re following different paths to weather the downturn."
"On another front, the company laid off its project manager at IronHorse, its Prineville development, because it foresees little need to expand there in the near future, Hollern said. IronHorse and Yarrow both fell about two-thirds short of projections this year. Brooks projected sales of around 35 lots and homes in each; it actually sold around a dozen apiece, Hollern said."
"In late spring, it announced plans to sell out of Miller’s Landing, a riverfront townhome project it had designed in conjunction with the Miller family on land near the Colorado Avenue Bridge. That sale later fell through, Hollern said. Brooks is in no particular hurry to sell it again, he said, but it also has no plans to forge ahead in the near future with a luxury townhome project in a market that seems oversaturated with that type of development."
Ahhhh yes, the aftereffects of Kool-Aid poisoning in high-relief: Gigantic subdiv's all over Central Oregon coming in 67% below projection. Assesment? BULLISH ON REGIONS PROSPECTS. Can't sell a little spit of PRIME LAND, IN TOWN, ON THE RIVER (I did not know this). Market assessment? BULLISH ON REGIONS PROSPECTS. Hollern FINALLY shakes off his Kool-Coma, and gives a rational reason for why this downleg will last damn near FOREVER:
"Right now, buyers and sellers are in a standoff mode, Hollern said. Sellers, who remember the peak prices they could have gotten in 2006, are reluctant to drop their prices far enough to sell in today’s market. And buyers, who sense more price reductions to come, are in no hurry to jump in."
On this, I AGREE. The memory of prices at the absolute motherf--kin top of Bends hyper-bubble will last so long, people will starting putting it in their Will's, and bequeathing it to their grandchildren. That s--t will last FOREVER. It will be the reason so many will HOLD OUT for Sept 2006 prices, even if it means going BROKE. You think this won't happen? Hell, this happens with just about EVERY OTHER BUSINESS TRYING TO GET SOLD IN DESCHUTES COUNTY. When people don't get their LUDICRIOUS minimum they've set in their mind, they actually close down the business AND LOSE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS rather than get one f--kin cent below their delusional MINIMUM PRICE. People go broke ALL THE TIME around here because they are INSANE, and unable to accept market prices. Ask ANY business broker; this s--t happens constantly, because Gods Chosen Dumbs--ts (ie the population of Bend) think that their little piece of crap company (or house, or f--king AUCTIONED TOWNHOME) is worth 100X the highest bid they've ever received.
Here you can see Hollern trying to break people of this mindset: HE ACTUALLY SEES THE REASON PRICES SHOULD COME DOWN & WHY THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR HIM:
'“Nobody quite knows where the price is going to settle down,” Hollern said. “I mean, pricing is so tough. But if you bought something in 2002 for $250,000 or $300,000 and you missed selling it for $750,000 two years ago, and now you have to sell it for $400,000, is that a bad deal? There was a peak there that some people missed if they didn’t sell. And if they bought on a peak, that’s kind of tough. So prices have to come back to, I think, to a somewhat more normal level.”'
Way back on BEMs kickass blog, I said over & over that at The End, those who praised their beloved Bubble the Most, would be calling the loudest for it's demise. Look at the hideous HYPOCRISY of Hollern here though: F--ker CANNOT give away those RiverWild condos at minimum, but YOU, you hapless dumbs--t, should sell your $750K McMunkee Spanker for $400K. That Losing Money S--t is OK for you... just not for me. Again, DELUSIONAL BEND MEDIA-FUELED KOOL-AID POISONING claims another victim.
Next you see that Pahlisch Homes is trying to do the only thing taught at the Bend Community College of Marketing RE, and that's TALK OUR WAY OUT OF THIS THING:
"Aside from the inventory overhang, the company believes key economic indicators — interest rates, local population growth and local incomes — are ripe for recovery to relatively normal market conditions by late next year, Myhre said. Prices in Bend, meanwhile, have become affordable enough again, ranging from the high-$200,000s in some of its developments to the low-$300,000s in others, to pinch into sales in Prineville, La Pine and Redmond that benefited during the boom that forced people out of the Bend market."
Yeah, yeah. Key indicators, rates, puppies, kitties, and no black guys is the KEY to a Bend RE recovery. OK. Sounds good. Paul-doh, however goes on the occasional bender that INCOME F--KIN MATTERS and INCOME AIN'T GOING NOWHERE, and is the only thing that will make or break a town of this size. Of course, that sort of s--t is crazy cuz it's based on reason & logic, which BendBB, the Bulletin, and others find horrific. F--kin Pahlisch wants us to live in $200K stacked, rocket propelled garbage dumspters, so that the second the bank forecloses, they can eject our corpses right into the Deschutes river. More goodness:
"Bad news, perhaps, for the outlying towns, but possibly a good sign for the region as a whole. Which is why, Myhre said, Pahlisch continues to prepare new lots in new subdivisions for new homes, when the demand turns around."
This is just hilarious! Basically an admission that prices falling will do a Rumpelstiltskin gangbang on LaPine and other second cousins to Bends all important RE market, and that's just FINE! How great is that? And Hollern finishes up with this:
'“We’ve always done projects that are 20 years or more in length, so the idea of a long-term project doesn’t bother us,” Hollern said. “I mean, we’ve always said this is going to be a great area in which to operate. Most of the time, we’re going to be doing better than the rest of the country. But in any given period there are going to be three years out of 10 that you say — ooh! — boy that wasn’t so fun. And it’s just hard to see ’em coming.”'
"Most of the time, we're going to be doing BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY"? Wow, the motherf--ker may need CPR, cuz he done gone into Kool-Aid Coma AGAIN. THIS, this sentence RIGHT HERE embodies this almost PATHOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY COMPLEX that this place has. I've been everywhere, and never have I seen a town who actually segregate themselves from the rest of this country, and hold themselves ABOVE the rest of the US population. Well, Hitler did it, and it seemed to work out just fine.
Well, I'd better s
